Trump Derangement Syndrome - Orange man bad. Read the OP! (ᴛʜɪs ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅ ɪs ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴋɪᴡɪ ғᴀʀᴍs ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡs ɴᴏᴡ) 🗿🗿🗿🗿

[Harvey Danger]

Lol, and you believe them? Economists are a bunch of broken clocks, they say every possible outcome so occasionally some are right.

If economists could predict the economy why aren't they all rich off the stock market?

I don't believe their every prediction. Macro theory has been broken since 2009, as I alluded to in the post. But insofar as there is any kind of expertise in the field, most of them have been worried about a downturn for years. So I was pointing out the Democrats who keep wishing for a recession aren't doing it out of thin air.

As for making money off the stock market:

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - Gary Shilling​

​

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch​

​

"Only liars manage to always be out during bad times and in during good times." - Bernard Baruch​

My own analogy: it's easy to read a radar and see a hurricane is coming, but it's impossible to win a bet for exactly what minute it will hit your house.

And that's what a stock market money-making investment is, entering and exiting at precise moments to turn a profit. It has nothing to do with reading the economy, even if some economic news causes a shock at some point; it has everything to do with reading the market, timing your bets, and being a better trader than 90% of the other people you're trading with.

 

[SmileyTimeDayCare]

and many trucking firms are going out of business.

See here's one of those niggles when it comes to business. Yeah that article paints a grim picture but this one suggests something else is at play:

Trucking: Despite bankruptcies, more truckers rolling in US

The number of US trucking companies rose by more than 21,000 in the year between June 2018 and this June, even as low spot-market pricing increased pressure on smaller fleets.

www.joc.com

Amid a series of trucking bankruptcies, the overall number of trucking companies and drivers in the United States continues to rise. More than 21,000 new trucking companies hit US highways between June 2018 and this June, according to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data analyzed by logistics company Tucker Company Worldwide and QualifiedCarriers.com.

Even with a massive number of losses the number of companies continues to increase. That indicates there is more going on than issues with China.

Retailers reported better numbers in October which reversed a slide in September. Someone has to be bringing them goods.

Is the market truly that soft or is it more profitable to go it alone or in smaller companies? Did companies simply mishandle their business? The article you linked seems to indicate there is an issue with buying new equipment and then experiencing shortfalls. I don't have the answers to these questions and don't feel like deep diving into an industry I care little for to find out.

I am curious what impact China's lifting of their ban on US poultry will have on that sector and the economy in general.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Is the market truly that soft or is it more profitable to go it alone or in smaller companies? Did companies simply mishandle their business? The article you linked seems to indicate there is an issue with buying new equipment and then experiencing shortfalls. I don't have the answers to these questions and don't feel like deep diving into an industry I care little for to find out.

I don't want to derail the thread (or powerlevel) too much while going into it. Just two things:

1) When talking about the broader economy, this chart of actual freight shipments is what matters. Notice it turns negative around January 2019, after the massive "Trump bump" of the previous 2 years. There was a lot of profit and buildup that is taking some time to draw down.



2) September and October of this year were rough on trucking/transport. I don't know of an easily accessed public report with numbers, but it will probably be noticeable on a year end analysis.

 

[AprilRains]

The establishment RINO that championed the heavily leftist common core and ran on the idea of being a political class dynasty appointment?

I mean yeah, I agree that the GOP would be cringey if Trump weren't steering it right now, but the GOP without Trump being cringey and the left being cringey are the exact same statement.

I'm wondering if it's that career politicians are cringey by default. Remember the kids who ran for student council president and really cared about it? That's who grew up to run for office. Trump's an exception because that wasn't his career path at first.

 

[Jigglyjogglers]

Remember the kids who ran for student council president and really cared about it? That's who grew up to run for office.

Nah, those kids aren't the ones who run for office... they're generally not from rich, well-connected families. Those are the people who grow up and work for politicians, never getting any actual acclaim themselves and eventually getting tossed under the bus when their masters need someone to blame for some fuckup. They're the overachievers who think they're going to make something of themselves and don't realize that with the path they've chosen, their fate is to be used up and thrown out. The people who run for office are the ones that go to private school and do jack shit, coasting through to their inevitable law degree on minimum effort before diving right into politics, riding on the backs of the tryhards who thought they were gonna be somebody but wind up as yet more grit for the political class grindstone.

 

[Flexo]

But this was supposed to be about Trump, wasn't it? He’s been trying to create an economic fortress in North America. He’s been throwing lifelines to whoever he could, trying to create a network to survive the coming collapse. Hence the importance of the USMCA, hence all of the deals he's cutting with South America, the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, etc. It's part economic Monroe Doctrine, part diplomatic realignment, and all integral to establishing a second, global trade network.

That could be bad... but I could also see all this happening next year along with Mexico finally exploding and Trump riding a massive wave of reelection as people realize who they actually trust to take care of the nation.

I mean probably not. Social media has fractured things so bad nobody living on the same planet any more, but a bot can dream about reality finally dick-slapping the loons.

 

[Thank Fuck For Evil Otto]

I'd agree it's more like 5 years.

The GOP would be just as cringe right now if Trump weren't a part of it. Always remember who Jeb Bush is

Trump as c-c-combo breaker.

 

[XYZpdq]

Apparently there's video of some MSNBC nerd ripping a massive fart midsentence while reeeeeeeeing about Trump
EDIT-

 

[AprilRains]

EDIT: god dammit I was inb4

 

[heyitsmike]

I don't believe their every prediction. Macro theory has been broken since 2009, as I alluded to in the post. But insofar as there is any kind of expertise in the field, most of them have been worried about a downturn for years. So I was pointing out the Democrats who keep wishing for a recession aren't doing it out of thin air.

As for making money off the stock market:

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - Gary Shilling​

​

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch​

​

"Only liars manage to always be out during bad times and in during good times." - Bernard Baruch​

My own analogy: it's easy to read a radar and see a hurricane is coming, but it's impossible to win a bet for exactly what minute it will hit your house.

And that's what a stock market money-making investment is, entering and exiting at precise moments to turn a profit. It has nothing to do with reading the economy, even if some economic news causes a shock at some point; it has everything to do with reading the market, timing your bets, and being a better trader than 90% of the other people you're trading with.

Not only is it hard to make a profit timing the market just in theory, it's even harder in practice.

Because in practice the transaction fees and commissions would eat into a significant part of the profit. And the short term capital gains taxes from all that churn would eat the rest.

 

[SiccDicc]

Apparently there's video of some MSNBC nerd ripping a massive fart midsentence while reeeeeeeeing about Trump
EDIT-

Ah, I see the Democrats are finally proponents of natural gas.

 

[Keystone]

EDIT: god dammit I was inb4

So when this guy rips a fat BOOF on live TV it's fine, but when this guy BOOFS he's an olympic rapist who deserves to have his life ruined. Outrageous double standard.

I'm joking, chill out

 

[ObeseScreamingBlackMan]

He even straightens up a little as he's dropping ass

 

[AprilRains]

Swalwell denies it was him.

 

[Ghostse]

People would do well to look at the deals that Trump has been making for the last three years, because there's a lot more going on with them than I think most people have noticed. He's not banking on the fact that there's not going to be a massive, economic down-turn, he's very clearly banking on the fact that one could exist and one could very easily be coming, but the faux economists and the mainstream media are looking in the wrong direction: It's not coming for the U.S., it's coming for the EU.

The EU hates a no-deal Brexit, that's not really a secret at this point, but this is one of the reasons as to why they’ve been granting it extension after extension. They won’t say it, but the loss of the UK would cause an instant recession in the EU. The UK’s economy is the 7th largest in the world. It would be akin to the U.S. losing all of California or New York’s GDP overnight. It would be disasterous, and this is one of the reasons why both sides have been stepping so carefully. It has virtually nothing to do with this "globohomo" theory, although I'm sure that some elements of politics that play into it, but I'm strictly talking economics, here.

It is not a stretch to say that trillions of dollars are at stake here, as well as the economies of entire nations. This is before you consider that a recession in the EU will cause a contagion; it will cause ripples throughout the world markets. Given that Hong Kong-- the economic capital of the far east--is facing unrest at the same time? A badly-executed Brexit could cause a global depression.

It goes like this: the UK does a no-deal Brexit, and the EU’s GDP tanks overnight. That in turn throws the entire EU into chaos, as investors start pulling up stakes and fleeing in a panic. People say they’ll do it in the UK, but the EU it will be even worse because during the EU’s financial crisis, the EU fucked up big time. They went full totalitarian, monetarily. Do you remember how investors in U.S. auto companies were forced by Obama's administration to take losses during bailouts and bankruptcies? The EU was several magnitudes worse in the amount lost.

The minute that a recession hits the EU, it will cause a full-on panic. Investors will get as much of their money out as fast as they can, then people will do runs on the banks trying to get their money out. It's not unreasonable to theorize that an entire economic collapse could occur if things are handled poorly.

But how does this spread out from the EU? In Hong Kong and China, they’re already on economically thin ice thanks to this ongoing trade war. Hong Kong’s still knee deep in protests, and the EU is also China’s second-largest business partner. Losing the EU overnight would instantly send a ripple into Hong Kong and to China. Investors would yank their money out of China before China could steal it, then in a panic people empty their Hong Kong bank accounts. Total financial collapse once again, as China’s already propping their banks up.

But this was supposed to be about Trump, wasn't it? He’s been trying to create an economic fortress in North America. He’s been throwing lifelines to whoever he could, trying to create a network to survive the coming collapse. Hence the importance of the USMCA, hence all of the deals he's cutting with South America, the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, etc. It's part economic Monroe Doctrine, part diplomatic realignment, and all integral to establishing a second, global trade network.

All of these idiots have been so busy shrieking about how awful Trump's economy is supposed to be that they’ve been looking in the wrong directions. They keep looking at the U.S. for signs of failure where there are none. They don’t understand that it is the globalist-aligned economies at risk. By the end of this, it's very possible that the EU may wind up having been an enormous mistake with or without Brexit.

If you haven't read it already, there is a very interesting book I read called "1177 BC, the year civilization collapsed" I think you'd enjoy.

the tl;dr is that for a few hundred years before 1177 BC, the late Bronze Age, the major eastern Mediterranean civilizations - the Mycenaeans (Greeks), Egypt, Crete, Hitites, Cananites, and Assyrians, were extremely advanced. They had diplomacy, record keeping, and artistry, as well as complex trade including funding expeditions to Afghanistan for Lapis and Tin. In 1177 BC, leading into the Iron Age, there was a massive decline in civilization. Wars, violence, abandoning cities and lack of building characterize the time period.

The book just presents evidence and talks about the region, and doesn't say what caused the collapse: because we don't know. What we do know is that once one civilization went under, the others fell like dominos as the complex trade networks unraveled, resources became scarce, and people turned to war. It was 500 years before civilization around the Mediterranean had picked itself up and gotten close to something like the late bronze age. It was more devestating than the fall of the Roman empire.

(there is also some interesting bits about Troy and the Illiad, where they postulate that Homer's account of Troy was a summary of a protracted conflict between the early greeks and the Trojans, as Troy was destroyed and rebuilt several times.)

I can see something similar happening in the modern world.

I agree Trump's trying to make America more self-sufficient, and I like the idea; but he hasn't done it yet. The trade deals and factory moves he got are significant, however they're mostly juice to the globally hyper-connected economic paradigm, not a US-centric semi-closed system. He wants jobs and manufacturing to happen in America, which are nice visible accomplishments; he hasn't yet transformed the globalized supply chain.

As an example, the trade war with the Chinese has mostly messed with import/export numbers and inventory holdings. Freight shipping has cratered over the last few months after the 2017-18 boom, and many trucking firms are going out of business. There are tons of stories from US businesses saying "we can't get this part from anywhere else, they just don't make it"; but there are very few stories of the US, Mexico, or Canada opening up factories to replace Chinese manufacturing.

The EU's been on the brink for over a decade now. I was frankly shocked when first Greece, then Cyprus didn't push them over the edge. Now that the Swiss are accepting negative interest rates on deposits, I'm convinced the entire continent has decided to just let the ECB fake whatever numbers it needs to keep things rolling along. I'm willing to bet the shock to the EU will ultimately come from China, not spread to China post-Brexit, because China's economic problems are too physical to be wiped away on a spreadsheet.

I was kind of hoping we'd have the recession over and done with before the election. Worst case scenario is it kicks up right in time for October 2020, like what happened in 2008. (Remember McCain "suspending his campaign" to sit in Congressional meetings about the economy?)

Of course, like others said above, a recession is exactly what Democrats are hoping for; not just to unseat Trump, but to take advantage of a crisis and shove more progressive policies through.

China has been playing the long gang, where they are using thier resources to target and take out capital-heavy industries, because once you starve out your competition, it will take tons of money and time for a competitor to be able to enter the market. And as that competitor won't have full and total backing the world's 2nd largest economy.

Cyprus had tons of illict Russian Mob money to tap to unfuck themselves. Greece only gets fixed by a military coup that backs an accountant economist; they are so deep into a government entitlements hole that no government that touches it will survive an election.

EU banks are over the brink. US banks are doing better but only so much as gripping the edge is better than being over it. US interest rates are at pretty much zero. There hasn't been much inflation since 2008. The US enconomy is good right now, but its require burning all the safety nets. If there is another global recession like we saw in 2009, it won't be pretty.

Swalwell denies it was him.

He who denied it, supplied it

 

[Jet Fuel Johnny]

If you haven't read it already, there is a very interesting book I read called "1177 BC, the year civilization collapsed" I think you'd enjoy.

the tl;dr is that for a few hundred years before 1177 BC, the late Bronze Age, the major eastern Mediterranean civilizations - the Mycenaeans (Greeks), Egypt, Crete, Hitites, Cananites, and Assyrians, were extremely advanced. They had diplomacy, record keeping, and artistry, as well as complex trade including funding expeditions to Afghanistan for Lapis and Tin. In 1177 BC, leading into the Iron Age, there was a massive decline in civilization. Wars, violence, abandoning cities and lack of building characterize the time period.

The book just presents evidence and talks about the region, and doesn't say what caused the collapse: because we don't know. What we do know is that once one civilization went under, the others fell like dominos as the complex trade networks unraveled, resources became scarce, and people turned to war. It was 500 years before civilization around the Mediterranean had picked itself up and gotten close to something like the late bronze age. It was more devestating than the fall of the Roman empire.

(there is also some interesting bits about Troy and the Illiad, where they postulate that Homer's account of Troy was a summary of a protracted conflict between the early greeks and the Trojans, as Troy was destroyed and rebuilt several times.)

I can see something similar happening in the modern world.

The Great Late Bronze Age Collapse is goddamn fascinating. One of the college courses I took was entirely devoted to it. It was a perfect storm of everything that could go wrong going wrong. From water tables changing to an influx of barbaric tribes to rapid technology explosion and changes.

Seriously, if you have some spare time and like learning shit, research it.

And another thing, if you run fantasy TTRPG's, read up on it, because it gives you a much better way to have ancient civilizations that are gone that aren't just "A moon hit" or "Magic collapsed" or "Because Reasons" that really make it interesting.

 

[Ghostse]

The Great Late Bronze Age Collapse is goddamn fascinating. One of the college courses I took was entirely devoted to it. It was a perfect storm of everything that could go wrong going wrong. From water tables changing to an influx of barbaric tribes to rapid technology explosion and changes.

Seriously, if you have some spare time and like learning shit, research it.

And another thing, if you run fantasy TTRPG's, read up on it, because it gives you a much better way to have ancient civilizations that are gone that aren't just "A moon hit" or "Magic collapsed" or "Because Reasons" that really make it interesting.

"A perfect storm" is not exactly accurate. Prior to the collapse, there had been other region-affecting disasters that the affected culture(s) and the region bounced back from with minimal disruption. The Eastern Mediterranean is not a particularly stable region even when you remove the fact everyone wants to murder everyone else, and it was much less so before modern water supply management was implemented to ease the flood/drought cycles

Its more accurate to say the collapse, once it started, was hastened by the routine natural disasters that plagued the region as cultures were no longer able to weather them unaffected.
(Its also accurate to say that the frequency of disasters around that time was higher than normal, but its not like the ground and skies suddenly opened up without precedent. Its also accurate to say the increase of natural disasters across Europe likely caused non-natural threats, like Barbarian tribes, to increase in frequency and severity).


I also like to use it as a example of what happens if Magic collapses, or a God denies favor, for just a single kingdom.
You can also flip the script and give the players an incentive to try to re-establish the trade network.

 

[Hatoful Dandy]

The EU's been on the brink for over a decade now. I was frankly shocked when first Greece, then Cyprus didn't push them over the edge. Now that the Swiss are accepting negative interest rates on deposits, I'm convinced the entire continent has decided to just let the ECB fake whatever numbers it needs to keep things rolling along. I'm willing to bet the shock to the EU will ultimately come from China, not spread to China post-Brexit, because China's economic problems are too physical to be wiped away on a spreadsheet.

There's also Sweden's GDP quite possibly being faked this whole time and that it's much worse than anyone's willing to admit.

 

[JohnDoe]

I can see something similar happening in the modern world.

Perhaps the only good news, for Americans at least, is that there are oceans and narrow land access in the majority of the Western Hemisphere. If the US really decides to get its dick out and start swinging good and hard they could lock up Canada and Mexico and makes Fortress North America. Aside from a few resources, like rare earth metals, North America is large and could theoretically be made completely self-sufficient. It would still be terrible, even if everyone kept their nukes on lock, but it could be done.

Sadly I think the key people in the government lack the will. Maybe a military coup would suffice, but I don't like the sound of a junta either. Still, beats going full cannibal.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

Sadly I think the key people in the government lack the will. Maybe a military coup would suffice, but I don't like the sound of a junta either. Still, beats going full cannibal.

That or the key people had sold their soul to another power.