War Iran-United States Military Crisis of 2020 - US Baghdad embassy under siege, rocket fire in US Baghdad green zone, Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 crash, and more!

January 10th:
Exclusive: Informants in Iraq, Syria helped U.S. kill Iran's Soleimani - sources (archive)(post)
Iraqi Shia cleric whose militia killed American troops says crisis is over following Iran strike and Trump speech (archive)(post)
Iraqi PM tells US to decide mechanism for troop withdrawal (archive)(post)
Mike Pence says Congress might 'compromise sources and methods' if fully briefed on the Soleimani strike (archive)(post)
Unidentified planes hit Iraqi militiamen in Syria, killing 8 (archive)(post)
Iraq: The Master Of Mayhem Meets A Missile (archive)(post)
Eliminating Qasem Soleimani was Donald Trump’s Middle East farewell letter (archive)(post)
Iran uses BULLDOZERS to clear debris from plane crash site while accusing US of ‘big lie’ that they shot it down (archive)(post)
Swiss Back Channel Helped Defuse U.S.-Iran Crisis (post)

January 11th:
UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT WAS BROUGHT DOWN IN IRAN DUE TO 'HUMAN ERROR' (archive)(post)
Iran minister says 'human error' caused by 'US adventurism' led to deadly crash of Ukrainian jetliner (archive)(post)
Ukrainian aircraft was brought down in Iran due to 'human error' (archive)(post)
Trump, at Ohio rally, says Democrats would have leaked Soleimani attack plans (archive)(post)
The Atlantic's David Frum blames Trump for downing of plane in Iran, deaths of 176 (archive)(post)
Associated Press changes ‘shockingly bad’ headline about Soleimani, Ukrainian plane crash after backlash (archive)(post)
GOP Rep. Doug Collins apologizes for saying Democrats are 'in love with terrorists' (archive)(post)
Iran demands West 'show findings' as new video reveals aircraft was struck before fiery crash (archive)(post)
Warren town hall interrupted by angry protester accusing her of ‘siding with terrorists’ (archive)(post)
Trump administration announces new sanctions on Iran (archive)(post)
Prepare For the Worst From Iran Cyber Attacks, As DHS Issues Warning: Experts (archive)(post)
Trump tells Fox News' Laura Ingraham 'four embassies' were targeted in imminent threat from Iran (archive)(post)
Trump tweets support for Iranian protesters as they demand Khamenei quit (archive)(post)
Trump warns Iran against ‘another massacre’ as protests flare over downed jet (archive)(post)

January 12th:
Trump tweet in Farsi 'the most liked Persian tweet' in history of Twitter (archive)(post)
Iraq warned to keep US troops or risk financial blow-WSJ (archive)(post)
Iran arrests UK ambassador in what Britain calls ‘flagrant violation of international law’ (archive)(post)

January 13th:
Trump authorized Soleimani's killing 7 months ago, with conditions (archive)(post)

edit: This is a WIP. All links are posted in the order they appear in the thread, not in chronological order of their publication.


---Original OP before the merge---
Iraqi supporters of Iran-backed militia attack US Embassy
https://apnews.com/75228a8a607a44863b57021ac33264dc (http://archive.vn/ljm9Y)

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA12 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (AP) — Dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday after smashing a main door and setting fire to a reception area, prompting tear gas and sounds of gunfire.

An Associated Press reporter at the scene saw flames rising from inside the compound and at least three U.S. soldiers on the roof of the main building inside embassy. It was not clear what caused the fire at the reception area near the parking lot of the compound. A man on a loudspeaker urged the mob not to enter the compound, saying: “The message was delivered.”

The embassy attack followed deadly U.S. airstrikes on Sunday that killed 25 fighters of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq, the Kataeb Hezbollah. The U.S. military said it was in retaliation for last week’s killing of an American contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base that it had blamed on the militia.

Dozens of protesters marched inside the compound after smashing the gate used by cars to enter the embassy. The protesters, many in militia uniform, stopped in a corridor after about 5 meters (16 feet), and were only about 200 meters away from the main building. Half a dozen U.S. soldiers were seen on the roof of the main building, their guns were pointed at the protesters.

Smoke from the tear gas rose in the area, and at least three of the protesters appeared to have difficulties breathing. It wasn’t immediately known whether the embassy staff had remained inside the main building.

The protesters hanged a poster on the wall: “America is an aggressor.”

Shouting “Down, Down USA,” the crowd tried to push inside the embassy grounds, hurling water and stones over its walls. They raised yellow militia flags and taunted the embassy’s security staff who remained behind the glass windows in the gates’ reception area. They sprayed graffiti on the wall and windows in red in support of the Kataeb Hezbollah militia: “Closed in the name of the resistance.”

Hundreds of angry protesters, some in militia uniforms, set up tents outside the embassy. As tempers rose, the mob set fire to three trailers used by security guards along the embassy wall.

No one was immediately reported hurt in the rampage and security staff had withdrawn to inside the embassy earlier, soon after protesters gathered outside.

The U.S. attack — the largest targeting an Iraqi state-sanctioned militia in recent years — and the subsequent calls by the militia for retaliation, represent a new escalation in the proxy war between the U.S. and Iran playing out in the Middle East.

Tuesday’s attempted embassy storming took place after mourners and supporters held funerals for the militia fighters killed in a Baghdad neighborhood, after which they marched on to the heavily fortified Green Zone and kept walking till they reached the sprawling U.S. Embassy there.

AP journalists then saw the crowd as they tried to scale the walls of the embassy, in what appeared to be an attempt to storm it, shouting “Down, down USA!” and “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday’s strikes send the message that the U.S. will not tolerate actions by Iran that jeopardize American lives.

The Iranian-backed Iraqi militia had vowed Monday to retaliate for the U.S. military strikes. The attack and vows for revenge raised concerns of new attacks that could threaten American interests in the region.

The U.S. attack also outraged both the militias and the Iraqi government, which said it will reconsider its relationship with the U.S.-led coalition — the first time it has said it will do so since an agreement was struck to keep some U.S. troops in the country. It called the attack a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty.

In a partly televised meeting Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi told Cabinet members that he had tried to stop the U.S. operation “but there was insistence” from American officials.

The U.S. military said “precision defensive strikes” were conducted against five sites of Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria. The group, which is a separate force from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, operates under the umbrella of the state-sanctioned militias known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Many of them are supported by Iran.

.

 

[Curious Addie]

I see everyone on twitter panicking about how this will start world war 3. Realistically speaking, would this really cause an all out war against nations or is this just some good ol' fearmongering?

Iran will sink some oil tankers, and we will blow up some centrifuges or whatever. TBH it is kind of disappointing to think that I will go through life without witnessing a nuclear attack.

 

[BONE_Buddy]

All you fucks need to calm down.

This strike IS a big deal, bit it is not going to lead to WW3.

Hell, it probably won't even lead to a war with Iran directly.

Why? Because I ran knows that if it does anything to start a direct war, it will lose and be annihilated. Simple as.

So, any conflict will probably be extremely localized (i.e. Iraq at maximum).

As previously mentioned Iraq is in an extremely turbulent times, Anti-Iran sentiment is very high right now, and the Iranian backed factions are in a political corner.

Soleimani was there to coordinate a less than peaceful power-grab. This disrupts those plans severely.

Proxy war Iraq boogaloo? Very possible.

However, I don't see the US doing much more than "technical support," "advising," and "defending our bases." In other words, not much more than what we were doing against ISIS.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I see everyone on twitter panicking about how this will start world war 3. Realistically speaking, would this really cause an all out war against nations or is this just some good ol' fearmongering?

I find it very doubtful, especially considering the Iranian government isn't the most popular among its people. A conflict with the US means an assured loss, as the US has proven we will cut our nose to spite the face every time.

It would be the height of Islamic arrogance to try and wrestle with the US and expect actual support from other countries.

 

[Terrorist]

Seems like this could be a Syria strike situation, where trump puffs his chest to distract the neocons + patriotard boomers but it doesn't amount to anything...but killing a general is higher stakes than that. Under any other 2016 choice (Hilldawg or a republican) we'd totally be at war rn.

Fuck this Jew bullshit! Why should my countrymen die and billions of tax dollars be wasted (that could've been spent on the wall) in another doomed land war in Asia, all to force "democracy" on a bunch of semi-literate monkeys who never wanted it anyway, and serve the interests of a (((people))) who believe I am worthless cattle?

 

[Spooky Bones]

Well, I wouldn't fret just yet because the Middle East has been a cluster fuck for a while.

Try since the end of the Ottoman Caliphate.

 

[Super Book]

Probably not all out war but elevated punch throwing. Just more of the same but slightly more of it.

I'm expecting that outcome the most. It seems like it will just add more years to the forever war we're currently in.

 

[Spawn]

I see everyone on twitter panicking about how this will start world war 3. Realistically speaking, would this really cause an all out war against nations or is this just some good ol' fearmongering?

Depends Iran just had major exercises with China and Russia not even a couple days ago. If it was real bad and the major powers had a chance to get control of the oil and resources of the mid East then perhaps possibly.

 

[pipcome]

I see everyone on twitter panicking about how this will start world war 3. Realistically speaking, would this really cause an all out war against nations or is this just some good ol' fearmongering?

Its stupid iran has no war capabilities against the US, twitter is just its usual reactionary self and when its about being anti trump you can double that.
Also yeah about that media narrative that this was trumps Benghazi lol

 

[Y2K Baby]

Seems like this could be a Syria strike situation, where trump puffs his chest to distract the neocons + patriotard boomers but it doesn't amount to anything...but killing a general is higher stakes than that.

Fuck this Jew bullshit! Why should my countrymen die and billions of tax dollars be wasted (that could've been spent on the wall) in another doomed land war in Asia, all to force "democracy" on a bunch of semi-literate monkeys who never wanted it anyway, and serve the interests of a (((people))) who believe I am worthless cattle?

Iran already has Democracy tbh.

 

[Superman93]

Why? Because I ran knows that if it does anything to start a direct war, it will lose and be annihilated. Simple as.

Iran is run by retards.

 

[Terrorist]

Iran already has Democracy tbh.

Meant in Iraq where the war would start

 

[Spooky Bones]

Its stupid iran has no war capabilities against the US

Fucking shit up at our embassies is their war capability against the US.

 

[Y2K Baby]

Meant in Iraq where the war would start

Iraq already is epic tbh.

 

[Spawn]

Well what I also don't think people realize is Iran is not another Iraq or syria. They have a professional standing army. They have S300 missiles which combined with the S200 and other Sams that they have could make it a bitch for us to gain air supremacy. Also they have anti ship missiles which combined with a swarm of small craft and naval mines could make it hard to operate in the Hormuz theater. Lastly all of their missiles for the most part are in hardened underground facilities and missile silo's with the ones that aren't being highly mobile. Which means it could be hard for them to be destroyed quickly before they can do serious damage to our bases in the region and to that of our allies. Which could significantly limit our options and force the use of more strategic weapons on a tactical scale if the damage done was severe enough.

 

[Spooky Bones]

The Spectator is now reporting Qassem Soleimani was travelling from Lebanon or Syria to arrive in Iraq.

 

[Freya]

Fuck this Jew bullshit! Why should my countrymen die and billions of tax dollars be wasted (that could've been spent on the wall) in another doomed land war in Asia, all to force "democracy" on a bunch of semi-literate monkeys who never wanted it anyway, and serve the interests of a (((people))) who believe I am worthless cattle?

Interesting point to raise.

Evangelical fundies are de facto Jewish supremacists and manage to lobby for Israel harder than actual Jews themselves.

They don't care how many Americans die to realize their theological cuck fantasy.

 

[Spooky Bones]

The Spectator is now reporting Qassem Soleimani was travelling from Lebanon or Syria to arrive in Iraq.

And that Ruhollah Khomeini says the US can "expect retaliation." Sabre rattling? Or not? Asymmetric opposition I think we're almost guaranteed for trying to slap a hornets nest around with our dick.

Iran has also declared three days of mourning for their martyr. They are obviously trying to meme up anti-American sentiment in their pissed off populace.

 

[LetThemEatCake]

If Iran is really exceptional they will try to overthrow Iraq, I mean liberate it from the imperialist infidels. Absolute worst case try invading but full on armed conflict did not work out well for them from 1980-1988 without a major imperialist infidel presence.

Oh, the good old days. 8 years of Saddam throwing chemical weapons and shit paid for by the west (proxy war a go go) at Iran, and the Iranians throwing everything and everyone including twelve year-olds and old men at the Iraqis, for in the end, absolutely zero ground gained for either side. Productive for all concerned. Bonus points for the US managing to panic-shoot an Iranian civilian airliner out of the sky by mistake in 88, which led to the Lockerbie incident. And people say the 80s were a carefree time. Pfft.

Iran - Iraq 2: Electric Boogaloo, doubt either side have the stomach for that shit again. Then again it is the Middle East, so who the fuck knows. The mullahs may be up for it but the Iranian people won't be.

 

[BONE_Buddy]

Last update from me for a while, I will be back later tonight or tomorrow.

Also, please remember that exaggerated, breathless, fear-mongering gives news sites more clicks and therefore more money. So take all information with a small mountain of salt.

World Holds Its Breath After An American Strike In Iraq Kills Top Iranian Commander (Updated)

It is impossible to overstate the significance of these events, which are still unfolding, and their far-reaching consequences.

www.thedrive.com

World Holds Its Breath After An American Strike In Iraq Kills Top Iranian Commander
It is impossible to overstate the significance of these events, which are still unfolding, and their far-reaching consequences.
A U.S. military strike on a pair of SUVs near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq has killed Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the division of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for militant and terrorist activities outside of the country. It is difficult to imagine that the Iranian regime won't feel compelled to take some form of action against any and all powers it holds responsible, possibly beyond the United States, to include its regional allies and partners, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. This, in turn, could easily prompt responses from those actors, creating a dangerous spiral of escalation, at least in for the near future.

"At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization," a statement from the Pentagon said. "General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region."

This statement also blames Soleimani and the Iranian government directly for directing the rocket barrage on the K-1 base in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk on Dec. 27, 2019, which killed a U.S. contractor and wounded a number of American troops. Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, which the United States has also designated as a terrorist group, carried out that strike.

That incident had already led to a series of already escalating events, starting with U.S. airstrikes against Kata'ib Hezbollah this past weekend. Just days ago, Kata'ib Hezbollah and its supporters launched an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad in retaliation, prompting the United States to begin deploying thousands of additional troops to the region. The Pentagon statement said that Soleimani directed the Embassy attack, which caused no casualties and minor damage, as well.

"This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans," the Pentagon statement continues in regards to the strike near Baghdad's airport. "The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world."
President Donald Trump had previously Tweeted out a picture of an American flag and Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, wrote his own post all but stating that the U.S. government had carried out the operation in response to repeated threats from Iran and its proxies in Iraq.

pic.twitter.com/VXeKiVzpTf
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020​

The defensive actions the U.S. has taken against #Iran & its proxies are consistent with clear warnings they have received

They chose to ignore these warnings because they believed @POTUS was constrained from acting by our domestic political divisions

They badly miscalculated
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) January 3, 2020​

There remain conflicting reports about whether a helicopter or a drone actually carried out the strikes. U.S. forces in Iraq have also reportedly sought to confirm Soleimani's death directly, something that is an important part of the post-strike process for any targeted killing.

This is a minor thing, but they say helicopter here, and early reports were drone strike. https://t.co/XFetQQrDi7
— Aaron Mehta (@AaronMehta) January 3, 2020​

A US official confirms Qasim Soleimani and deputy head of Popular Mobilisation Forces have been killed “pending DNA test results” in what Newsweek still needs to describe as an “unclaimed attack” near Baghdad Airport https://t.co/VgVZmBJ087
— Jane Kinninmont (@janekinninmont) January 3, 2020​

The strikes reportedly killed a number of other notable individuals in addition to Soleimani, including Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, Kata'ib Hezbollah leader and the Deputy Chairman of the Popular Mobilization Committee, the Iraqi government entity that oversees the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The bulk of the PMF consists of Iranian-backed militias, which received support from the Quds Force. The PMF's top spokesperson and head of its protocol office, Mohammed Ridha, was also killed. There are unconfirmed reports that a senior member of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah also died. Iraqi authorities have denied reports that U.S. forces had arrested other important Iraqi militants who had taken part in the Embassy attack.

There also remains some confusion over whether or not there were additional rocket attacks targeting Baghdad Airport and other nearby locations, which you can read about more in The War Zone's initial reporting on tonight's events.

Both SUVs are seen here burning with passengers inside, nothing confirmed yet of the source of the rockets or who was behind the attack #Baghdad #iraq pic.twitter.com/TimWNoYrjt
— Steven nabil (@thestevennabil) January 2, 2020​

Two SUVs were hit on the road leading to the arrival/departure of Baghdad International Airport pic.twitter.com/9xZVlGVEeA
— Steven nabil (@thestevennabil) January 2, 2020​

Purported Soleimani photo evidence tweeted by an Iranian journalist: https://t.co/WNczwQPTvv
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) January 3, 2020​

"Let me speak directly to Iran and to our partners and allies. To Iran and its proxy militias: we will not accept continued attacks against our personnel and forces in the region," U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper had told reporters earlier in the day. "Attacks against us will be met with responses in the time, manner, and place of our choosing. We urge the Iranian regime to end their malign activities."

There are already reports emerging that Iran will see to retaliate for Soleimani's death and it's hard to see how they could not. The Quds Force commander was an extremely well-connected and influential member of the Iranian regime. He also regularly engaged actively with Iranian-backed terrorists and militants across the Middle East, who are also likely to now take action.

Iranian sources in Iran are warning that killing Gen. Qasem Sulaimani spells war.
"Official reaction will begin with a strike," one says.#Iraq
— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 3, 2020​

The US' act of international terrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation.

The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.
— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 3, 2020​

It remains to be seen what form that response will take. Though Iran and its proxies cannot win a conventional conflict against the United States, they had already demonstrated a number of potential asymmetric options last year, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops' shooting down a U.S. Navy drone over the Gulf of Oman in June 2019. The United States has also blamed Iran directly for carrying out unprecedented suicide drone and cruise missile attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia three months later, as well as a string of attacks on commercial oil tankers during the year.

Iran could use its considerable arsenal of ballistic missiles to threaten various countries in the region, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of which host U.S. forces, as well. Though the U.S. intelligence community has not assessed that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program, there are long-standing reports that it may have stockpiles of chemical weapons, which it could load onto these weapons.

Iran also routinely threatens to blockade the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which it could do using a combination of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles, midget submarines, suicide drones, mines, swarming boat attacks, and more. This body of water links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and that serves as a transshipment point for 20 percent of the world's oil and an equally significant portion of global natural gas. The price of a barrel of crude oil rose by over a dollar following the strike in Baghdad.

#Oil pic.twitter.com/u1VX9kXvym
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) January 3, 2020​

Simply seizing commercial ships and taking their crews hostage could be another option. Iran's proxies could also launch terrorist attacks or a wave of kidnappings across the Middle East and potentially beyond. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq reportedly briefly abducted two French journalists following the attack on the U.S. embassy earlier this week, possibly believing they were Americans. Non-kinetic alternatives, such as cyberattacks, could be another part of the equation.

If Iran were to pursue any of those options, it would almost certainly beget at least similar responses, though the United States has now shown a willingness to take increasingly disproportionate steps in its ostensible goal of deterring Iran. Major escalatory actions from either side also increasingly run the risk of drawing in other regional or even global actors who have a stake in the situation, such as Russia or China, in some way. There is also the danger that third parties could find themselves caught in the crossfire from future tit-for-tat military or terrorist attacks.

With regards simply to Iraq, there had already been renewed calls to eject U.S. forces from the country in response to the airstrikes on Kata'ib Hezbollah, which is technically operating under the auspices by the Iraqi government. Months of protests, notably from demonstrators largely opposed to Iranian influence in the country, have already weakened the Iraqi government and this recent series of events, culminating in Soleimani's death, have put it in an extremely disadvantageous position.

Iraqis — Iraqis — dancing in the street for freedom; thankful that General Soleimani is no more. pic.twitter.com/huFcae3ap4
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) January 3, 2020​

Whatever happens now, it is safe to say that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and likely beyond, has dramatically and fundamentally changed in ways that are still very much unfolding.

 

[MrTickles]

Excellent. Iran will have to launch a large attack after this. This was their no.2 assassinated in cold blood. US will be drawn into another iraq/afghanistan and it will become regional making it the costliest and biggest conflict since korea. China's accendance will accelerate and russia's influence abroad (it will insert itself into the conflict) will also speed up. It doesn't matter who wins or loses militarily. The Us will bleed for years and this is the best case scenario for china's new global order it is building across afro-eurasia with the new silk road. America is done. Seems trump is actually much dumber than I had thought. I figured he had some long term strategic consciousness but guess not.