-Part 2-
Plane spotters using online flight tracking software also noticed
the apparent deployment of special operations forces from Europe to the region. The massive air bridge to bring all these personnel and equipment into the theater, which involves U.S. military airlifters and other aircraft flying through various air bases and civilian airports on their way to various locations in the Middle East, as well as Turkey, and back again, is still ongoing.
This is likely to continue in the near future as the U.S. military has now confirmed that it will send thousands more troops to the region. It appears that this is just a formal decision to send the remaining elements of the brigade-sized IRF, which consists of between 4,000 and 5,000 personnel, though additional units may be preparing to deploy, as well.
The US is deploying 3,500 more troops from the 82nd Airborne to the CENTCOM region, according to defense & military officials. They will be a response force to threats throughout the region, officials say.
@CENTCOM
— Courtney Kube (@ckubeNBC)
January 3, 2020
NEW: Another 3,000 US soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division headed to
#Kuwait to help bolster security for US personnel & bases in the
#MiddleEast, US defense official confirms to
@VOANews
This is in addition to 750 troops sent earlier in the week for the same pupose
— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin)
January 3, 2020
These
deployments, especially activating the IRF, had also seemed somewhat excessive given that the Iraqi militias had caused no casualties during their attack on the American Embassy in Baghdad and had only done relatively limited damage to exterior portions the overall Embassy compound. However, it now seems very prudent in light of the response from Iran and its regional proxies to the death of Soleimani. It's important to note that Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, Kata'ib Hezbollah's leader and the Deputy Chairman of the Popular Mobilization Committee, which oversees the PMF, was also killed in the U.S. drone strike, which has already prompted additional calls for revenge from Iranian-backed elements in Iraq.
"If we get word of attacks or some type of indication, we will take preemptive action, as well to protect American forces, to protect American lives," U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper
had told reporters on Jan. 2 before the strike on Soleimani. "So, the game has changed."
It's also worth pointing out that reports had emerged
in early December 2019 that the U.S. government had new streams of intelligence indicating increased threats against American interests in the Middle East from Iran and its proxies. Only limited details about this new information subsequently emerged, but there
were 11 rocket attacks on bases in Iraq housing American forces that month, including the one on K-1, all tied to Iranian-backed militias.
Whatever the case, Soleimani has been on the U.S. government's radar for decades now and American officials had considered targeting him on a number of occasions in the past. Retired U.S. Army General Stanley McChrystal says that he
opted not to strike the Quds Force commander in Iraq in 2007, when he was commander of the Joint Special Operations Command, for a number of reasons, including potential political blowback. At that time, the Quds Force was aiding groups in Iraq fighting the U.S.-led coalition there, as well as engaging in attacks directly.
President George W. Bush reportedly vetoed a proposal from the Central Intelligence Agency and Israel's Mossad to assassinate him in Syria the following year over similar concerns. The CIA and Mossad
did kill Imad Mughniyeh, the second in command of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah in the Syrian capital Damascus, which was also part of the plan.
2 US had an opportunity 2 kill Soleimani. In 2007 when US forces led by General McChrystal followed him in Iraq and lost him. In 2008 when Mossad&CIA together killed Hezbollah's Mughniyeh in Syrira. Soleiman was in his company. Mossad wanted to kill him too. Bush vetoed it
— Yossi Melman (@yossi_melman)
January 3, 2020
The two administrations I worked for both determined that the ultimate ends didn’t justify the means. The Trump Administration has made a different calculation.
The Iranian government has vowed to retaliate and avenge Soleimani’s death, and could do so in any number of ways:
— Rep. Elissa Slotkin (@RepSlotkin)
January 3, 2020
All told, it's not surprising that the fallout from killing Soleimani just in Iraq that is already unfolding lines up well with these known concerns dating back to the George W. Bush Administration. Making things particularly complicated is the Iraqi government's own strong connections with Iran and that the strike also killed an official representative of the Iraqi government, Kata'ib Hezbollah's chief Muhandis.
Iraqi authorities had already been publicly critical of the U.S. military's unilateral strikes against Kata'ib Hezbollah and the country's Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, has now issued an even more strongly-worded statement in response to the new strikes near Baghdad's airport. "The assassination of an Iraqi military commander holding an official position is an act of aggression against Iraq, and the Iraqi people," he said.
"The assassinations violate the conditions governing the presence of US forces in Iraq whose role is to train Iraqi forces and assist in the fight against Daesh as part of the Global Coalition," he continued. "We have today requested that the Council of Representatives (Parliament) holds an emergency session to take the appropriate legislative measures in a manner that preserves the dignity, security, and sovereignty of Iraq."
PM
@AdilAbdAlMahdi: We condemn in the strongest terms the assassination by US forces of Iraqi and Iranian figures who were symbols of the victory against Daesh.
— Government of Iraq - الحكومة العراقية (@IraqiGovt)
January 3, 2020
PM
@AdilAbdAlMahdi: Carrying out operations to assassinate Iraqi figures and figures from another country on Iraqi soil is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a dangerous escalation.
— Government of Iraq - الحكومة العراقية (@IraqiGovt)
January 3, 2020
PM
@AdilAbdAlMahdi: We have today requested that the Council of Representatives (Parliament) holds an emergency session to take the appropriate legislative measures in a manner that preserves the dignity, security and sovereignty of Iraq.
— Government of Iraq - الحكومة العراقية (@IraqiGovt)
January 3, 2020
Pro-Iranian members of Iraq's parliament have been calling for the removal of U.S. forces for various reasons on and off for the last year or so and have now renewed their calls to do so.
Muqtada al Sadr, a controversial Shia cleric and
influential Iraqi politician, who was in Iran at the time of the strikes that killed Soleimani, has declared his intention to reform the Al Mahdi Army and Al-Yom Al-Maw'oud militias, which fought against the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq in the mid- and late-2000s.
BREAKING: Iraq’s Parliament vows to eliminate the US presence in
#Iraq — deputy parliament speaker says they’ll hold an emergency meeting & make "decisive decisions that put an end to US presence inside Iraq"
— Gillian Turner (@GillianHTurner)
January 3, 2020
Muqtada al Sadr gives orders via statement on twitter to revive Al Mahdi Army and Al-Yom Al-Maw'oud militias.
— Rasha Al Aqeedi (@RashaAlAqeedi)
January 3, 2020
Secretary Pompeo has insisted that killing Soleimani, who was a key player in coordinating Iranian support for terrorists and militants across the Middle East, as well as the Syrian regime of dictator Bashar Al Assad, has left the world a safer place overall. However, the State Department is now reportedly considering evacuating its personnel from Iraq and has told U.S. citizens to stay away from the Embassy in Baghdad. The U.S. government has also issued an alert advising all Americans to leave the country as soon as possible, preferably by air, for fear they may become targets of terrorist attacks or
kidnappings.
The French Minister of State for Europe and Foreign affairs said this morning, “Today we wake up to a more dangerous world.” Asked to respond, Pompeo said, “The French are just wrong about that. The world’s a much safer place today.”
— Betsy Klein (@betsy_klein)
January 3, 2020
US official at the Baghdad Embassy tells me “we are sitting on the fence of either fleeing or hunkering down and riding out the wave of hell Iran will bring...but we have scotch still.”
— Alex Ward (@AlexWardVox)
January 3, 2020
New U.S. travel advice for Iraq:
-Depart Iraq immediately
-Depart via airline “while possible”
-Failing that, to “other countries via land” (what other countries? Iran? Syria?)
-U.S. citizens should not approach the embassy
https://t.co/xt5HgQbetd
— Liz Sly (@LizSly)
January 3, 2020
Those are just two asymmetric options available to Iran and its regional proxies against Americans in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. You can read more in-depth about the various different avenues Iran has to respond to, short of an all-out war against the United States that it cannot hope to win and that would be devastating for all involved, in the
War Zone's previous reporting about the strikes that killed the Quds Force commander.
For its part, Iran has declared three days of mourning for Soleimani and appointed his deputy of some 20 years, Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, to be the new head of the Quds Force. The Iranian regime has promised "severe revenge" for the American strikes and it seems hard to see how they will not retaliate in some fashion the future against the United States, as well as any of its allies or partners,
especially Israel and
Saudi Arabia, it sees as also being responsible.
“Mr. Ghaani, who has been Mr. Soleimani’s deputy commander in the Quds Force for more than 20 years, would continue Mr. Soleimani’s work in the Middle East with undiminished force, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a statement.”
https://t.co/VmnFuu8AyB pic.twitter.com/FMNFfN7Eel
— Phillip Carter (@Carter_PE)
January 3, 2020
Commander of Iran Quds Force in wake of US strikes in Iraq stating people need to be patient and "wait to see the dead bodies of Americans all around the Middle East"
https://t.co/LBIMLmqvcr
— Matthew Borie (@phxasc)
January 3, 2020
"Just as Israel has the right of self-defense, the United States has exactly the same right," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said in a statement commending President Trump personally on taking action against the Quds Force commander." Israel stands with the United States in its just struggle for peace, security, and self-defense."
Saudi Arabia does not appear to have issued a formal statement as of yet. “With knowledge of the operations and threats to the security of the region and the threats posed by terrorist militias that require their cessation, the Kingdom, in light of the rapid developments, calls for the importance of self-restraint to ward off all that may lead to aggravating the situation with its unbearable consequences,” an
unnamed source told the country's
Al Arabiya news network.
Other prominent American allies have largely avoided lauding the strikes outside the airport in Baghdad, which, by every indication, the U.S. carried out unilaterally. The United Kingdom has notably called on "all parties to de-escalate." France has also said the American operation has made the world a "
more dangerous" place.
Iran: UK responds to US airstrike on military commander in Iraq
— Foreign Office
(@foreignoffice)
January 3, 2020
The United Kingdom and France, along with Germany, Russia, and China, make up the remaining international partners to
the controversial deal over Iran's nuclear program. These countries are no doubt concerned that the strikes could lead Iran to
further escalate its violations of the terms of that agreement, steps the regime in Tehran has been
pursuing for months now already in an effort to pressure the parties into granting it sanctions relief and other concessions.
In the meantime, Iran and its proxies in Iraq seem to be immediately focused on burying their dead, but it seems hard to see how de-escalation will be on their minds in the near term.
UPDATE: 3:30pm EST—
President Trump has now said that he does not seek war with Iran or regime change in Tehran, but has also threatened to conduct more strikes against Iranian interests, if necessary, saying that other targets are "identified" already.
President Trump defends authorizing the strike that killed Soleimani: "We took action last night to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war."
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins)
January 3, 2020
Notable that President Trump makes clear he does not seek regime change after his former national security adviser called for it within hours of the strike.
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins)
January 3, 2020
"We have the best intelligence in the world," Trump says, praising the agencies he has doubted in the past. He adds that if Americans anywhere are threatened "we have all of those targets already fully identified and I am ready and prepared to take whatever action is necessary."
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins)
January 3, 2020
The U.S. State Department has now designated the Iraqi militant group Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq as a terrorist group, as well. Brothers Qays and Laith al-Khazali, who head the group, received their own designations.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
had previously named Qays al-Khazali as one of the Iranian-sponsored actors responsible for the attack on the Embassy in Baghdad. He had notably fought against the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, first as a member of Muqtada al Sadr's Al Madhi Army, before forming Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. This group was responsible for various terrorist attacks, kidnappings, and other acts of sectarian violence against the coalition and other Iraqis. Coalition forces detained Qays between 2007 and 2010, when he was released
in a prisoner swap.
There are reports that Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq fighters are preparing for attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq now and that they believe American troops will be leaving the country soon.
Reuters reported that Qais al-Khazali on Friday ordered his fighters to be on high alert for an upcoming battle and said that U.S. military presence in Iraq would end soon.
Local TV channel al-Ahd, which is close to his Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, quoted him, Reuters said.
https://t.co/8Cj0II5Zvo
— Chad Garland (@chadgarland)
January 3, 2020
In the meantime, American oil workers, among others, have begun to follow the advice of the U.S. government and leave the country. The increasingly worrisome security situation may make it difficult to do so, at least by air, in the future, with Royal Jordanian Airlines and Gulf Air both suspending flights to Baghdad indefinitely.
Elements of the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team, based in Italy, is also reportedly now on alert for a possible deployment to Lebanon in light of increase security concerns there.
The Pentagon placed an Army brigade in Italy on alert to fly into
#Lebanon if needed to protect the American Embassy there. An official said the U.S. could send 130 to more than 700 troops to Beirut from Italy.
https://t.co/SWngI4JPyu
— Zeina Karam (@zkaram)
January 3, 2020
-End of Article-
(@aldin_ww) 
