War Iran-United States Military Crisis of 2020 - US Baghdad embassy under siege, rocket fire in US Baghdad green zone, Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 crash, and more!

January 10th:
Exclusive: Informants in Iraq, Syria helped U.S. kill Iran's Soleimani - sources (archive)(post)
Iraqi Shia cleric whose militia killed American troops says crisis is over following Iran strike and Trump speech (archive)(post)
Iraqi PM tells US to decide mechanism for troop withdrawal (archive)(post)
Mike Pence says Congress might 'compromise sources and methods' if fully briefed on the Soleimani strike (archive)(post)
Unidentified planes hit Iraqi militiamen in Syria, killing 8 (archive)(post)
Iraq: The Master Of Mayhem Meets A Missile (archive)(post)
Eliminating Qasem Soleimani was Donald Trump’s Middle East farewell letter (archive)(post)
Iran uses BULLDOZERS to clear debris from plane crash site while accusing US of ‘big lie’ that they shot it down (archive)(post)
Swiss Back Channel Helped Defuse U.S.-Iran Crisis (post)

January 11th:
UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT WAS BROUGHT DOWN IN IRAN DUE TO 'HUMAN ERROR' (archive)(post)
Iran minister says 'human error' caused by 'US adventurism' led to deadly crash of Ukrainian jetliner (archive)(post)
Ukrainian aircraft was brought down in Iran due to 'human error' (archive)(post)
Trump, at Ohio rally, says Democrats would have leaked Soleimani attack plans (archive)(post)
The Atlantic's David Frum blames Trump for downing of plane in Iran, deaths of 176 (archive)(post)
Associated Press changes ‘shockingly bad’ headline about Soleimani, Ukrainian plane crash after backlash (archive)(post)
GOP Rep. Doug Collins apologizes for saying Democrats are 'in love with terrorists' (archive)(post)
Iran demands West 'show findings' as new video reveals aircraft was struck before fiery crash (archive)(post)
Warren town hall interrupted by angry protester accusing her of ‘siding with terrorists’ (archive)(post)
Trump administration announces new sanctions on Iran (archive)(post)
Prepare For the Worst From Iran Cyber Attacks, As DHS Issues Warning: Experts (archive)(post)
Trump tells Fox News' Laura Ingraham 'four embassies' were targeted in imminent threat from Iran (archive)(post)
Trump tweets support for Iranian protesters as they demand Khamenei quit (archive)(post)
Trump warns Iran against ‘another massacre’ as protests flare over downed jet (archive)(post)

January 12th:
Trump tweet in Farsi 'the most liked Persian tweet' in history of Twitter (archive)(post)
Iraq warned to keep US troops or risk financial blow-WSJ (archive)(post)
Iran arrests UK ambassador in what Britain calls ‘flagrant violation of international law’ (archive)(post)

January 13th:
Trump authorized Soleimani's killing 7 months ago, with conditions (archive)(post)

edit: This is a WIP. All links are posted in the order they appear in the thread, not in chronological order of their publication.


---Original OP before the merge---
Iraqi supporters of Iran-backed militia attack US Embassy
https://apnews.com/75228a8a607a44863b57021ac33264dc (http://archive.vn/ljm9Y)

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA12 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (AP) — Dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday after smashing a main door and setting fire to a reception area, prompting tear gas and sounds of gunfire.

An Associated Press reporter at the scene saw flames rising from inside the compound and at least three U.S. soldiers on the roof of the main building inside embassy. It was not clear what caused the fire at the reception area near the parking lot of the compound. A man on a loudspeaker urged the mob not to enter the compound, saying: “The message was delivered.”

The embassy attack followed deadly U.S. airstrikes on Sunday that killed 25 fighters of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq, the Kataeb Hezbollah. The U.S. military said it was in retaliation for last week’s killing of an American contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base that it had blamed on the militia.

Dozens of protesters marched inside the compound after smashing the gate used by cars to enter the embassy. The protesters, many in militia uniform, stopped in a corridor after about 5 meters (16 feet), and were only about 200 meters away from the main building. Half a dozen U.S. soldiers were seen on the roof of the main building, their guns were pointed at the protesters.

Smoke from the tear gas rose in the area, and at least three of the protesters appeared to have difficulties breathing. It wasn’t immediately known whether the embassy staff had remained inside the main building.

The protesters hanged a poster on the wall: “America is an aggressor.”

Shouting “Down, Down USA,” the crowd tried to push inside the embassy grounds, hurling water and stones over its walls. They raised yellow militia flags and taunted the embassy’s security staff who remained behind the glass windows in the gates’ reception area. They sprayed graffiti on the wall and windows in red in support of the Kataeb Hezbollah militia: “Closed in the name of the resistance.”

Hundreds of angry protesters, some in militia uniforms, set up tents outside the embassy. As tempers rose, the mob set fire to three trailers used by security guards along the embassy wall.

No one was immediately reported hurt in the rampage and security staff had withdrawn to inside the embassy earlier, soon after protesters gathered outside.

The U.S. attack — the largest targeting an Iraqi state-sanctioned militia in recent years — and the subsequent calls by the militia for retaliation, represent a new escalation in the proxy war between the U.S. and Iran playing out in the Middle East.

Tuesday’s attempted embassy storming took place after mourners and supporters held funerals for the militia fighters killed in a Baghdad neighborhood, after which they marched on to the heavily fortified Green Zone and kept walking till they reached the sprawling U.S. Embassy there.

AP journalists then saw the crowd as they tried to scale the walls of the embassy, in what appeared to be an attempt to storm it, shouting “Down, down USA!” and “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday’s strikes send the message that the U.S. will not tolerate actions by Iran that jeopardize American lives.

The Iranian-backed Iraqi militia had vowed Monday to retaliate for the U.S. military strikes. The attack and vows for revenge raised concerns of new attacks that could threaten American interests in the region.

The U.S. attack also outraged both the militias and the Iraqi government, which said it will reconsider its relationship with the U.S.-led coalition — the first time it has said it will do so since an agreement was struck to keep some U.S. troops in the country. It called the attack a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty.

In a partly televised meeting Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi told Cabinet members that he had tried to stop the U.S. operation “but there was insistence” from American officials.

The U.S. military said “precision defensive strikes” were conducted against five sites of Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria. The group, which is a separate force from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, operates under the umbrella of the state-sanctioned militias known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Many of them are supported by Iran.









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Donald Trump and his top diplomat, Mike Pompeo, have claimed Qassem Soleimani posed an “imminent” threat to American lives that justified the airstrike that killed him in Baghdad last night.

The US president said the Iranian general was “plotting to kill” US citizens, but neither he nor Mr Pompeo provided additional details to support the claim. Americans in Iraq have been urged to leave immediately in the wake of the killing.

Soleimani, the head of the elite Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force and Tehran’s most senior military commander in Iraq, was killed near Baghdad Airport alongside Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a high-ranking commander in Iraq’s militia.
 
Let's get this thread back on topic.
Are we actually going to start world war 3, or is this a big nothingburger.
There won't be a WWIII, but the Middle East will be further destabilized in 2020.

Expect an increase terrorist attacks, suicide bombings, bombings, and rockets/drone attacks in the future.
 
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Short answer: No

Longer answer: Fuck No



You want to know the best part about that minisub? It was made by military development extraordinaire North fucking Korea
Most of what Iran has currently are just leftovers from the Cold War era. A lot of the tanks, naval ships, and so on are just a bunch of decommissioned and really outdated junk that were produced by the Soviets, the Chinese, the United States, the DRPK, the UK, and so on.

Any M1 Abrams can easily one-shot those BTR-50's and T-72s that were left behind by the Soviets and any F-16 Fighting Falcon can easily lay waste to those crappy rip-offs of those Russian navel ships too.
 
That's because this is what became insanely successful for them in Iraq during the back end of the US involvement there. Special Forces snatch teams (more often than not, the UK's SAS being borrowed) would do a lot of the ground work and guiding in, usually backed by heavy hitters of Delta or the Marines in case shit went wrong. This proved so hilariously effective you can see the US military has basically adopted this practise wholesale for their own special forces teams.



"The only adult in the room" was responsible for sending screeching, armed protesters to the US embassy forgetting that Trump operates a brinkmanship diplomacy policy as opposed to the whimper and roll over of the Obama years.

This sounds like desperate shill spinning by the media pretending the orange man blew up the only "good iranian" rather than the fucking monster he clearly was. Those eyes aren't haunted.

They're utterly soulless.
Like when I payed the fucking reddit comment, it shows how hard people are willing to shill Iran. Attack some in the Middle East and America are imminent because Iran is Mowbray autisticaly shit flinging over the death of their high ranking general. I garuntee America Ian Justin going to fund rebel groups in the north who will over throw the imam then turn on each other and soon after the fucking UN will walk in trying to one resolve it but like always their hands are tied behind their back so because of the shitty rules put in place.
 
1578087553660.png

Russia is not backing Iran at this time.
 
Talking about this, I have to wonder if Trump managed to hold off a repeat of what happened in the 1970's, and what looked like a repeat is what drew the general out.

It has all the makings.

Gate the embassy had been breached. Embassy was surrounded by hostile forces. Iran moving in troops and officers to secure the area. Planes brought into the airport that could handle a lot of passengers.

Overrun the embassy, kill the Marines, take the embassy workers hostage, fly them back to Iran, generate Iran Hostage Crisis 2: Orange Man Boogaloo.

It looked like it was going to work. The last decade or so, the Iranians had pretty much gotten off scott free with their machinations, if not downright rewarded for their cleverness by the US Congress and President.

Only Trump didn't play by the rules. He didn't go before Congress, or create an investigative panel. He didn't tell them "Hold in place with current assets and wait for instructions" when the embassy got in trouble. He moved in more Marines and (from my sources), about 10X the normal ammo load that the embassy carries, as well as body armor plate replacements, a couple of Navy Corpsman, and got them ready for a siege. Then activated the Rapid Ready Brigades in 82nd. It's a good fucking thing for 82nd that they got on the ground in less than 72 hours from their RRB notification.

Then he found out that the General was there, and he does exactly what anyone would do.

Snipes the motherfucker.

Arab leadership isn't exactly known for sharing its plans and surrounding itself with the best. (Ask anyone here who's taught Arabs warfare, the idea of surrounding yourself with people just as skilled as you and letting them know every bit of the plan is almost an alien mindset to them)

The General had a lot of personal contacts, did a lot of his deals and brokering by personality and who he knew.

Then he got blown the fuck out by an ROFLstomper.

In the West, we have clear cut chains of command. If Sergeant Snuffy takes one to the pie-hole, Corporal Lunchmeat takes over. If Captain Clapjock takes a SCUD to the dick, 1LT Dicksucker steps up. Orders are written and disseminated. Planning sections can be rebuilt in minutes or hours.

But that's not how it works for our erstwhile Arab friends. Military rank is power. Knowledge is power. There's no room to share power because if someone gets more power than you they'll cut you off.

So it'll take at least days for the Iranian forces, who happen to be in fucking Iraq, which, last time I checked was a sovereign nation and Property of Iran Donut Steel, to decide on the next course of action.

Giving the Pentagon time to plan and prepare, the secondary wave of the Rapid Ready Brigade system to gear up, train up, load up, and move out. Give sats time to be repositioned, give naval troops time to shift.

And best of all, give the Dems and the TDS weirdos time to REEEEEE to high heaven and make themselves look like assholes.

All for the low low cost of a Hellfire missile probably manufactured before half of you were born, built by the lowest bidder, storage in the high tech equivelant of a cool dark cave, maintained by drunken retards, and fired from a jumped up RC plane.

While Trump watched on camera and ate ice cream from a bowl balanced on Melinia's head.

EDIT: Let's have some tinfoil hat fun!

Let's have some real tinfoil hat fun. Notice how Russia is all "Bro, you do this, we ain't helping you..." but you know they're both shit-stirring in the background and *maybe* them and the pollution goblins are selling them weapons a generation or three back.

Now, little thing about Desert Storm.

It was all experimental and untested weaponry. Fielded by unblooded retarded drunks. Led by dudes who's last combat command was like 1972 if they'd even been in command and not some low ranking gook stomper. Munitions, fire control systems, armored vehicles, body armor, delivery systems, all untested in combat. It had been over 15 years since the US had fielded an army beyond Panama, which had been another ass stomping, but that wasn't a "real war" since it was just stepping on an ally's head for getting uppity.

Before Feb, 1991, theory was that it would take 3 M1/M1A1 tanks to match 1 T-70, much less a T-80 or Object-219A. That it would take 2-3 Apache's working in tandem to beat a HiND. That the USAF was still behind the curve compared to 1970's MiG's. The Patriot system and the Grid Square Removal Device were barely field tested and the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle was still firmly listed in the Military Boondoggle category next to the Sergeant York.

Then Feb happened.

Comedians were joking about how American smart missiles got lost then stopped and politely asked for directions before blowing up a house. There were reports of an M1A1 firing and getting two kills on T-70 series tanks with a single shot. Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicles were killing tanks. Even worse, these half-trained assholes had recovered from the DT's and went completely apeshit on the enemy.

Russia had realized that unlike them, the US does something very strange with their military development. Every other country flexes and brags over how amazing their gear is. The US does nothing but releases page after page after page of why something sucks. There's more data on the problems with any given US military system than their is about its strengths. The Apache, which many military analysts claimed was the worst helicopter since DaVinci, suddenly was this menace. The M1 tank, formerly sneered at as all around complete shit and fragile as hell is the standard everyone else measures their tanks to despite it being a 30 year old (Or is it closer to 40 years now?) design.

The amount of data the Russians and the Chinese and the French and British paid Iraq to vacuum up out of the sand post Desert Storm was immense. (You'd be surprised what a burnt out tank can tell you. Dead men tell no tales is fine for mortals, but when tech approaches witchcraft, the dead are downright chatty)

So, a decade passes. 9-11 happens, and America comes out swinging. More or less the same tech as far as the world powers are concerned. Just some software upgrades and new body armor and another round of shitty Colt rifles. Afghanistan lasts all of 30 minutes. In 2003 Saddam decides that rather than comply with UN Inspectors he'd rather try for round two and what's left of his army gets BTFO by the Hamburger again.

Shock and Awe? No. That shit wasn't shock and awe, that was barely anything. Anyone who who'd watch the Air War in 1991 knew that. Most of all, Russia and China knew it. Hell, the new munitions weren't even used and rumor had it that they were just clearing the bunkers of old expired stock.

No new data. Not even after almost 20 years of fighting. All the data is just small unit tactics and how not to handle an insurgency. That and any time the insurgents or the Taliban got together in numbers they got chopped into kibble almost comically.

Yeah, the US loses insurgency wars, but that doesn't help the Russians or the Chinese or the Eurofags. They want data. They also know that the Hamburger Kingdom will chew up and spit out any conventional force that tries to go toe to toe with them in a SALW setting.

See, sure, the other nations had 29 years since Desert Storm to run R&D and warfare upgrade developments, but lets face it, the US has a military R&D budget more than everyone else in the world put together. Apparently the US designs new weapons and vehicles by piling money in a big heap, lighting it on fire, and seeing what magically appears when it all burns up. If you don't see anything, just keep shovelling more money in, something will appear eventually. (The B1 and B2 bombers were considered huge boondoggles that crashes if the weather shifted and could be picked up on radar by traffic cop with overruns in the billions of dollars as far as experts in the 1980's were considered. Up until it started bombing the fuck out of Iraq many experts claimed it couldn't even fly)

You always want to gauge your enemy, hell, even your ally's war fighting ability. Sure, war-games teach you about their logistics and doctrine, but it doesn't teach you or provide you with data about how everything interacts with the really real world and an enemy that's actively trying to kill you rather than yelling "BANG!"

The US is known for measured responses, and in some ways, from backing down before making the final knife thrust. One thing Obama did, especially Lizard Queen Hillary, was violate that in weird ways. (Libya surrendering and Hillary laughing at it, Obama giving Iran a pallet of cash after they captured a boat of sailors who had been ordered to surrender). Trump is seen as someone who does things in the most minimum force with making a point possible that, weirdly enough, causes the least amount of human life.

So China and Russia and hell, even the EU, can be pretty sure that if the US went full fucking blood crazy they could be convinced to back down right at the last second and avoid any war crimes. Now, after the last 19 years you might go "Well, they'll still occupy the place", I'm going to say... not necessarily.

The American public and a lot of military thinkers are in the "Occupations can't be done by modern ethics and morals" camp.

But lets get back to where the tinfoil is. Adjust your hat, boys, we're going in dry.

Iran has been (somewhat rightfully) pissed at the US ever since the glow in the dark shit. They've been shoving at the US since the 1970's. Killing mainly civilians, barring the SF dude they hung on live TV in the 80's. Taking hostages then acting like Eagle Claw's fuckups were their military acumen rather than fucking luck and Carter's big mouth'd administration. In Iraq they've seen a way to embarass the US AND maybe grab up Iraq like they've wanted to for decades. They aren't scared of the US, not even after everything that has happened. Publically (I don't know how they come across in talks with other nations) they act and talk as if they can beat the US on the ground (LOL, they can't) in a protracted war instead of managing to bleed the US to death during an occupation.

But, they've been getting a little too bad in recent years.

With Russia and the US the largest suppliers of oil in the world now. China's got no problem trying to get in on that action.

Here's our tinfoil...

If Iran pushes the US into a repeat of Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom, everyone BUT Iran knows how its going to turn out. Sure, they'll inflict casualties. Not to sound too insensitive, but we can take it. They can't. And our K/D Ratio is fucking insane. Not to mention, Iran's oil wells will probably mysteriously burst into flame.

One thing that even the Arab world knows is there's a weird thing about the Hamburger Kingdom. You be actively shooting at them, run out of ammo, drop your weapon, yell "I GIVE UP!" and BOOM! Instant protected status. Any other country would yell back "LOL TOO LATE!" but not the US. While other nations claim to try to avoid civilian casualties, the WORLD has watched how American tech has been constantly improved to provide the maximum killing power with the least civilian casualties. The Arab world knows that the US doesn't regard civilian casualties as how the game is done any more.

So Iran's civilian population knows the easiest way to avoid getting fucked up by a passing tank patrol is to pull over to the side of the road and sit on the hood on their car.

Here's the tinfoil...

If Iran gets its shit pushed in, Russia and China can suddenly remember that Iran's an ally after the mullahs are wiped the fuck out, half the country is in shambles, and their military is smoked. They can put pressure on the US to halt all military actions and withdraw under a cease fire.

Like 1991.

They get to see how much changes the US war fighting tech has undergone changes. Scoop up battlefield debris for analysis.
They get a new and larger chunk of the international oil trade.
Sanctions would, of course, have to be lifted from Iran to allow it to economically recover, damaging the US's oil dollar standing.
It sinks the US further in debt.
It gives the Dems something to hang on Trump's neck
It energizes the Dem base to get out and vote to avoid being drafted, as if they still draft farm animals
It damages the US as far as having to rearm, reload, and start new R&D programs as well as burdening the VA system further
The new government will have the EU, China, Russia, and the US all sucking its dick to side with them, getting rid of the crazy mullahs
China has a new market for their cheap shit

When the dust settles, everyone but the hard liners and the dead benefit.

The fight between the US and Iran has been coming for decades.

It's just now, everyone benefits, the ME is already shit-storm, slavery in Tripoli again, roving bands of crazy warlords, destablized anyway, so this is the perfect time to take care of the one of the most glaring, destablizing, crazy chunks of Cold War leftovers that the fucking Glow in the Darks left the world to have to deal with. Plus, without Iran destabilizing everything in sight for shits and giggles, who knows how the Middle East will shake out.

Tinfoil: Russia, China, and the EU all gain more from watching the US wipe out Iran than they actually lose and might be quietly egging Iran on out of pure self-interest.
 
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Iran attacks an Iraqi military base, killing an American, and then they try to storm the US embassy. And when Trump responds, he's the one at fault? I don't understand these people. I get not liking Trump (personally I don't care for the man,) but it seems tens of millions of Americans are truly suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome and it's pathetic.
Especially after the US had another embassy stormed in Iran by Iranians in 1979, which resulted in a year long shit show during an election year no less. It might be a while ago but it's still within living memory. I don't get how Joe Biden or any TDS suffering retard thinks attacking Trump on this is a good idea. It's like they want to seem anti-American and lose the vote of all the independents in the country.
 
I've been watching this thread quietly for a while. Seeing twitter along with some users here freaking out over WW3 at first gave me some initial pause but honestly, if you legit think this is SRS BSNS!!11 then you're being exceptional. Is this a big deal? Hell yeah. We turned a top commander into ragu. But Iran is not the hill the whole world is dying on. Especially since Russia has utterly no interest in backing them up over this. China isn't going to do shit either since they're a paper tiger.

I'm not fond Trump because I feel he never knows when to shut up. That said, this was ballsy as fuck and the monster we killed had it coming for years. So old Donno gets a gold star from me in this regard for his brazen willingness to kick Iran's teeth in. Iran will screech, shit itself, and probably do nothing other than proxy bombings or cyber warfare.

Everyone online, especially twitter, is so tense and dramatic nowadays. Y'all motherfuckers need some zen.
 
Especially after the US had another embassy stormed in Iran by Iranians in 1979, which resulted in a year long shit show during an election year no less. It might be a while ago but it's still within living memory. I don't get how Joe Biden or any TDS suffering exceptional individual thinks attacking Trump on this is a good idea. It's like they want to seem anti-American and lose the vote of all the independents in the country.
Those imbeciles remember, somewhere in the Alzheimer's fog there is a dim recollection of yellow ribbons
 
I suspect that the Iranian leadership don't think the Madhi will rise out of well for them on this one. I pray I'm not wrong because they may well do something very stupid. If it escalates I don't think it will be WWIII but there would be a lot of suck put upon a lot of people in the event of war.

If the Mahdi rises up, the democrats have a lot more to worry about than orange man. Their entire secular atheist anti-evangelical factions are getting beheaded in a gruesome manner.

iran knows they don't have the means to be proactive with retaliations as they've mostly invested in plausible deniability operations, but the death of Solemani basically means the U.S. isn't dealing with the two faced ass backwards approach Bush and Obama had. Where they conduct plausible deniability operations, but brag about them as great "victories".
 
Probably a nothing burger. I mean while 9/11 was the thing that kick started the War on Terroism, that didn't start World War 3 either.

Besides, while I do expect Iran to get really salty over this, it's not like they will be dumb enough to declare war on the U.S.

For crying out loud, this sorry excuse of a naval ship is one of the submarines that they use.

RN6RPUIWMBHOFA42JDS5N3MXOQ.jpg
Haha It looks like the Huntley. they've managed to reach the 1860s in tech.
 
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Probably a nothing burger. I mean while 9/11 was the thing that kick started the War on Terroism, that didn't start World War 3 either.

Besides, while I do expect Iran to get really salty over this, it's not like they will be dumb enough to declare war on the U.S.

For crying out loud, this sorry excuse of a naval ship is one of the submarines that they use.

RN6RPUIWMBHOFA42JDS5N3MXOQ.jpg
That thing looks like it’s barely more advanced than the Japanese midget subs. I wonder if they have explosives in the nose so they can get their 72 mermaid virgins.

Edit: I just realized I saw that paint job somewhere. The Best Koreans might have sold it to them.

EEB2C8B9-81E4-4910-9C05-A3D6D1144094.jpeg
 
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Realistically speaking, Iran can no longer field a capable navy. They need to save face or risk another Operation Praying Mantis, and get disastrously curb-stomped again. I do honestly believe the boat swarm midget tactic is just so they can pepper and harass targets but not have to worry about losing anything pretty out of just saving face.

I genuinely think their best asset has always been spinless American politicians sucking them off. If they were smart, they'd wait for a Democrat to get into office.
 
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