War Iran-United States Military Crisis of 2020 - US Baghdad embassy under siege, rocket fire in US Baghdad green zone, Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 crash, and more!

TowinKarz · Jan 11, 2020

Your Weird Fetish said:
Because otherwise there would be no nation states.

Also, by that logic, any citizen of that state could be arrested tried and jailed for anything that the state does. Which is the very 'justifacation' of terrorism: It's okay to attack US citizens on vacation because they are guilty of the military actions of their home country even though they aren't part of it.

the "State" is an entity that plays by it's own rules outside of common law and inside common diplomacy for that reason, to ideally prevent reprisal against innocent civilians.

Huitzilopochtli · Jan 11, 2020

RodgerDodger said:
In many ways this is likely the same. The Iranians assumed they would be under attack as soon as their missiles hit (crashed in the dirt near) American positions in Iraq. Somebody started shooting at shadows. The big questions are why did Iran open the airport to civilian traffic in the face of missile strikes? And why did nobody tell the idiots with the missiles that they had reopened the airport. And then after the fact why did they bulldoze the site destroying the evidence and the victims remains?

Given the situation, I think Iran had every reason to expect to be taken off the map at that point. B-52's were known to be in the area, and it's known (world wide at this point) that the US follows a doctrine of air supremacy.

The second part of this, I think (and unfortunately) is easier to answer. Remember how the FAA immediately issued a notice when shit started going down. I'm not sure that anyone regionally (Iran, Iraq, etc) did this on their end (I wasn't able to find any regional announcements). Keep in mind the context and magnitude of this fuck up; anyone related to this is probably in a box somewhere (dead if they're lucky).

Your Weird Fetish · Jan 11, 2020

RodgerDodger said:
it seems it has not gone unnoticed by the locals that the IRGC and the Mullah’s went to great lengths to avoid killing any Americans in their “response”

"Yeah, that's the ticket. We could have if we wanted to. We just didn't feel like it."

theshep · Jan 11, 2020

RodgerDodger said:
It’s possible to turn it off. But it involves pulling the right breaker. For example the Indonesian Airline plane that disappeared over the Pacific had it’s transponder turned off. When they do that only Military Radars can find them. Civil ATC radar just looks for the transponders.

Which in this case, it wasn't.

The flight was tracked by third-party websites like flightradar24 and FlightAware. Which receive their data from regular people who have an ADS-B receiver and internet connection.

Also I was interested to read this morning that they're going along with the 'it was flying close to a military installation' line. Also patently untrue lies from the Iranians.

A charted departure route from Tehran Imam Khomeini.

Some departures on the night of the crash, including the Ukranian jet.

Noideawhattopick · Jan 11, 2020

OnMoTi said:
There was an actual war going on, the ship who fired the missile had just been attacked by Iranians, and the plane itself refused to respond to radio transmissions. In this incident, there was no war, Iran hadn't just been attacked, and the plane was shot down just moments after take off. Trying to compare the two shows you're either ignorant of the facts, or a mudslime apologist who deserves a bullet.

Goes to show I should've read the whole Wikipedia article about the incident. With that context it changes quite a bit.

It's HK-47 · Jan 11, 2020

Franjevina said:
Oh you mean like when USA shoot down Iran Air flight 655 in 1988 ?

The attack on Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 has absolutely no comparison with the attack on Iran Air Flight 655. The only people making this comparison are people who have stripped out any possible context, or people who have no idea what they're talking about. Honestly, maybe it's both. The Iranians shot down Flight 752 when there was no other air activity in the vicinity. Six other airliners had flown the same route over the three and a half hours between the Iranians firing missiles into Iraq, and the Iranians shooting down the airliner.

Flight 655, meanwhile...

There's no possible way that the Iranians could have mistaken Flight 752 for a military aircraft, since Flight 752 was on a published, Iranian civilian flight corridor, and it was broadcasting a four-digit civilian code. There were no other aircraft anywhere in the vicinity. It could not have been mistaken for another plane, and the Iranians made no effort that we've seen to contact them before they fired on it.

On the other hand, the U.S. shot down Flight 655 in the middle of a naval battle. The U.S.S. Vincennes had just engaged with Iranian speedboats with their 5-inch gun, sinking two of the crafts, and there were three Iranian F-14 Tomcats in the area at the time. A helicopter from the U.S.S. Vincennes had also come under fire from these speedboats, and we didn't know the capabilities of the F-14s. The Iranians never told Iran that they were engaging us in combat, which meant that Flight 655 would not have been informed that they were flying over a combat zone.

Flight 655 was 27 minutes late, and off-center from its published corridor. When flight 655 took off, the U.S.S. Vincennes' radar operator picked up a "mode II", or military code from one of the F-14s, and it's not known where the F-14 was at the time. Interesting fact: The Iranian Air Force broadcasts both military and civilian codes for their aircraft, so when an aircraft is Mode III, we have no idea if it's a military or civilian craft. Hence, the U.S.S. Vincennes anti-air coordinator checked the flight schedules.

Flight 655 was 27 minutes late, and Bandar Abbas Airport is dual military and civilian use, which again made it impossible to determine if the craft that they were picking up was a military or a civilian flight. We were in the middle of a raging naval battle, we knew that there were Iranian military craft in the area, and we knew that the Iranians broadcast dual civilian and military codes, and that there was no scheduled, civilian flight for the craft in question at the time it was passing through, and that it launched from a military airport. Every duck was in every row to make it look like Flight 655 was actually a "disguised" military craft that was up to shit.

Commander David Carlson of the USS Sides (FFG-14) issued verbal radio warnings to Flight 655 and got no reaction. He also "painted" Flight 655 with antimissile radar and got no reaction either, so he assumed it was a civilian aircraft. Military aircraft have radar warning receivers. Since Flight 655 continued climbing, Carlson relaxed and thought that U.S.S. Vincennes would do what he did, and see that it was a civilian airliner.

Captain Rogers of the U.S.S. Vincennes also issued several radio warnings and got no response. Rogers asked for a status report on the computer-generated tracking number and was told that the aircraft was descending towards him at 450 knots. The computer--which was being used for the first time in combat--mistakenly assigned the number to a U.S. Navy aircraft, which was descending to come back and land, but Vincennes was operating in an incredibly congested area, and the Iranians were playing stupid games with identification codes to try and confuse us. It worked.

The Aegis Combat System was the "latest and greatest" in American automated fire-control systems. The TOR-1 that the Iranians used to shoot down Flight 752 dates back to the Soviet era. It wasn't some untested mess being used for the first time in a combat situation like the Aegis Combat System was, at the time. The Iranians also weren't involved in combat, they were just lobbing missiles at stationary targets.

So, in the middle of this naval engagement, the captain and crew of the U.S.S. Vincennes thought that the ascending Flight 655 was the previously-mentioned F-14 on a "descending attack vector." In September of 1987, the U.S. Navy had notified all Gulf nations that their airliners must monitor all international air distress and military air distress frequencies. Captain Rogers radioed Flight 655 ten times, and never received a response.

Rogers ordered two missiles fired. Flight 655 was shot down, and everyone aboard was killed. The U.S. paid the victims' families $132 million, and Reagan publicly apologized for the incident.

The Aegis Combat System reuses tracking numbers, and operators are required to pay strict attention. In the middle of a naval engagement, in a very congested body of water, the U.S.S. Vincennes crew didn't notice when the system reused the tracking number. The system is only designed to track combat aircraft; it doesn't pay attention to civilian crafts. So, when then computer peeled the tracking number off of Flight 655 and reassigned it to a returning U.S. Navy aircraft, it happened so quickly that the crew failed to catch it.

This, combined with the fact that Rogers attempted to establish radio contact with Flight 655 a total of 10 times before he fired on the craft, absolutely makes it a tragedy, but how it came to happen has been thoroughly explained. Do you think that the Iranians tried to contact Flight 752 before they started lobbing missiles at it?

I don't.

Arctic Fox · Jan 11, 2020

human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster,”

"Guys, look. We did shoot down that plane. Killed a couple hundred. I know that. But for Allah's sake it was AMERICA'S FAULT!"

If this is what starts a revolution against Iran's theocracy and ends with Iran as a democratic nation it'd be icing on the cake. All for a single Ninja Blender duct taped to a Hellfire missile.

Jump · Jan 11, 2020

theshep said:
Which in this case, it wasn't.

The flight was tracked by third-party websites like flightradar24 and FlightAware. Which receive their data from regular people who have an ADS-B receiver and internet connection.

We know the transponders where not off. But lets just say they where turned off. And they had 1960s analog radar that could only give them lat/lon/elevation. The fucking airport is right there. They would have seen the plane take off from their own civilian airport. Heck they could have probably watched it with their eyes if they where on one of those little hills. I don't think the USA keeps many B52's at Imam Khomeini International Airport.. at least not yet

Its to bad we will most likely never learn how this really happened.

Gustav Schuchardt · Jan 11, 2020

RodgerDodger said:
The Peasants! They are revolting!

Trump tweets support for Iranian protesters as they demand Khamenei quit

After denials, Tehran admits “disastrous mistake,” saying air defenses were fired in error after Iranian missile strikes on US targets in Iraq

www.jpost.com

it seems it has not gone unnoticed by the locals that the IRGC and the Mullah’s went to great lengths to avoid killing any Americans in their “response” while caring not one whit about how many Iranians they (the Ayatolla’s) just happen to kill.

If the Iranians end up bringing down the regime over this I'm going to start believing the '4d chess' theory of Trump.

The Torygraph and Al Jizya are both reporting demonstrations calling for Khamenei to go too.

Death Grip · Jan 11, 2020

@It's HK-47 based on the info you just provided to us, a tin foil hatter might be pondering if somehow the plane shot down by the USA was in some way made to not respond, in order to make the US look bad.
This does of course go against Occam's razor.
But why would a pilot fail to respond to ten attempts of communication by a military force?

LetThemEatCake · Jan 11, 2020

Arctic Fox said:
"Guys, look. We did shoot down that plane. Killed a couple hundred. I know that. But for Allah's sake it was AMERICA'S FAULT!"

If this is what starts a revolution against Iran's theocracy and ends with Iran as a democratic nation it'd be icing on the cake. All for a single Ninja Blender duct taped to a Hellfire missile.

I think this is not the end of the regime, but perhaps the beginning of the end.

There have been rebellions and major protests going on against the regime for a long time now. The regime has as ever hit back by siccing the hated Basjis on protestors and killing them, dragging people into custody and brutalizing and occasionally murdering them, making them rebel even more, as people feel there's nothing left to lose. There is an ongoing civil resistance movement by Iranian woman against the insane sharia dress codes and religious police used to enforce it. Women are going out without hijab or removing them in public and filming their enocounters with the old crows who try to arrest them or the other Iranians who try to shame them. The economy is in tatters, unemployment is high and everyone is seeing who is really to blame - a government that cares more about exporting its Shia supremacy movement and conducting proxy wars in other nations than feeding its own people. The regime rhetoric blaming all ills on America or Israel is wearing thin. I see this latest, absolute boot in the face week of humiliation of the Regime and the loss of its major asset Soleimani as a major nail in the coffin in that regime. It may take a while, but it's a limping wreck and I think people are sensing the vulnerability. People are going to have to eat crow when it turns out its Trump who put the boot in hard enough to start the final destruction of the Mullahs' 40 year reign of terror.

What comes next will of course be interesting. if they manage a transition to a better form of government with an insurgency, a civil war or just getting another version of the same thing. I'd hope the Iranians have learned from the mistakes they made in the seventies that led to the mullahs seizing power by riding on the back of the anti-American Communists and leftists (whom they then imprisoned, exiled or killed). I know from talking to an Iranian friend there are definitely many supporters of the descendants of the Shah, the Pahlavi family, who want a restoration of the monarchy. God knows how it would turn out, though.

XYZpdq · Jan 11, 2020

Gustav Schuchardt said:
If the Iranians end up bringing down the regime over this I'm going to start believing the '4d chess' theory of Trump.

this is passing 5d backgammon and heading into Death Note

PantsFreeZone · Jan 11, 2020

There are conflicting reports about who is actually protesting in Iran. The people, Marxist agitators, CIA regime change led glow in the dark crowds or students who want actual change.

Either way, this tweet is amazing:

RA-5C Vigilante · Jan 11, 2020

LetThemEatCake said:
I think this is not the end of the regime, but perhaps the beginning of the end.

There have been rebellions and major protests going on against the regime for a long time now. The regime has as ever hit back by siccing the hated Basjis on protestors and killing them, dragging people into custody and brutalizing and occasionally murdering them, making them rebel even more, as people feel there's nothing left to lose. There is an ongoing civil resistance movement by Iranian woman against the insane sharia dress codes and religious police used to enforce it. Women are going out without hijab or removing them in public and filming their enocounters with the old crows who try to arrest them or the other Iranians who try to shame them. The economy is in tatters, unemployment is high and everyone is seeing who is really to blame - a government that cares more about exporting its Shia supremacy movement and conducting proxy wars in other nations than feeding its own people. The regime rhetoric blaming all ills on America or Israel is wearing thin. I see this latest, absolute boot in the face week of humiliation of the Regime and the loss of its major asset Soleimani as a major nail in the coffin in that regime. It may take a while, but it's a limping wreck and I think people are sensing the vulnerability. People are going to have to eat crow when it turns out its Trump who put the boot in hard enough to start the final destruction of the Mullahs' 40 year reign of terror.

What comes next will of course be interesting. if they manage a transition to a better form of government with an insurgency, a civil war or just getting another version of the same thing. I'd hope the Iranians have learned from the mistakes they made in the seventies that led to the mullahs seizing power by riding on the back of the anti-American Communists and leftists (whom they then imprisoned, exiled or killed). I know from talking to an Iranian friend there are definitely many supporters of the descendants of the Shah, the Pahlavi family, who want a restoration of the monarchy. God knows how it would turn out, though.

I really hope the normal army finally grows a pair and stands up to the mullahs, because the Artesh has been getting shafted really hard by the IRGC. For example, just last year, one of the 707's of the Iranian Air Force had crashed carrying food into the country from Kyrgyzstan. It was being used by Saha Airlines, which is owned by the Air Force, and was the last 707 ever flying, being first entered into service during the reign of the Shah in 1976. And it was recorded as having engine problems at least a decade before the crash.

The crash killed almost the entire crew but one guy, including genuine pro's that had been in the Air Force for decades. Why is this important? Because the IRGC had a much a newer Il-76 ready to go through one of their own airlines, Pouya air, and reportedly, but I can't say definitely, didn't fly out because they weren't going to paid enough to move the food.

Think about that for a second. The IRGC possibly let 15 highly trained Air Force personnel die in a crash, trying to ship food for the people of Iran, because their cut wasn't good enough for them to bother.

And I would bet that the Mullah's are just fine with the military using 40 year old F-14's, obsolete Chieftain and Patton tanks, and shitty North Korean mini-subs while giving the IRGC high-tech equipment for the same reason their hated enemy Saddam gave the Republican Guard the newest toys: because they don't trust their army one bit, and don't want them being a serious threat to their power. So they give their trusted own little army all the stuff they want, and let Air Force pilots trying to get people food die horribly.

What i'm trying to say here is if there are any Generals or Admirals in the Iranian Military reading this thread, take your chance. The power's that be are looking weaker than ever, and the young people of Iran want change. And if you do it, fill those screaming ankle-biting Ayatollah humpers with more lead than Tehrani tap water.

BONE_Buddy · Jan 11, 2020

Some more twitter based updates.

Aurora Intel on Twitter

“A commander of Abbas Ali Al-Sa'edi which is a Pro-#Iran #PMU has been assassinatedi in Karbala, #Iraq”

twitter.com

War Iran-United States Military Crisis of 2020 - US Baghdad embassy under siege, rocket fire in US Baghdad green zone, Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 crash, and more!

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