So if that study thinks 95% aren't detected yet
And China knows about 10k infected
That means... 200,000 infected, 190,000 undetected, right? That would line up with the messages being snuck out of the area.
Wonder how that affects the predicted infection of 180,000 in 2 weeks? If we're going from 11k to 180k in 2 weeks... 200k to... 3.3 million?
Possibly. China hiding basically everything about this virus its impossible to know. But those numbers are feasible with the methods they're taking.
The Trump curse has struck again.
This time against the entirety of China.
Its kinda ironic that they were editing every religious text on Earth to be more Communist and then they were hit with a biblical plague.
From a sample size of (supposedly) only like 26 cases last time I checked, one of those few deaths we know of being an otherwise healthy man in his 30s is alarming. Might have defied the odds in the worst way possible, or the standard for what's "healthy" in China might just be having fucked up lungs lungs, idk. It's extremely fucking weird for that to occur with classical pneumonia, though. Another caveat, it's worth pointing out that a woman in Wuhan posted a video frantically trying to show the public what the Wuhan hospitals were dealing with & it was packed w people lying on the floor in the hallways and she was complaining about how a corpse that had been lying on the floor for a day and a half and no one has attended to it. Another video showed a doctor supposed speaking with a Wuhan dialect yelling at his superior about how he had way too many patients to deal with and he'd throw out one that was lying on the floor. It does not look like a place well equipped to improve patient prognosis... I also honestly wouldn't put it past China to just put down a super-spreader and claim natural causes.
I really don't know what to think in how deadly or transmittable this disease is because China is very clearly not being transparent and there aren't enough confirmed cases elsewhere yet to verify. I suspect that after Chinese New Year we'll have a real idea of what it is and what risks it might poses. If it means anything, I'm a computational biologist specializing in disease pathology and I'm genuinely perturbed by this. The actions of the Chinese government are suspicious as fuck. And for the record I don't think "alarmism" is necessarily a bad thing either, if it means that people exercise more caution and don't putz around in huge packed crowds over the Chinese holidays and exercise some basic level of hygeine. People on Chinese subreddits have been downplaying it for no reason and encouraging people to travel there and suggesting good tourist spots and shit. If you aren't in China rn, there's no reason to take the bet and travel there.
I'm in STEM, but anything more specific...lets just say I'm on the road to becoming a biomedical scientist. That's the easiest way of putting it without doxing myself.
OH! I completely forgot about this fact. Shit, thanks for reminding me. Another thing is that China has probably the worst air pollution in the world. So their lungs have had years upon years of damage from inhaling God knows what from cars and factories with 0 environmental standards, meaning their lungs are already extremely weak. So you have people in their 20s and 30s but their lungs look like 50-year old heavy smokers, introduce a pneumatic virus onto that population and you have a whole lotta 'yikes' as the children to say. So we've got even MORE confounding variables. It might infect people that are young, but it might not kill them because they have healthy lungs.
People in China most assuredly do NOT have healthy lungs thanks to years and years of heavy air pollution. So while it may infect young people around the world, it may not kill them because their lungs can take it. However, if it infects a 20-30 year old from China who has accumulated decades of scar tissue in their lungs....they're going to fucking die. Without going into the science of it, basically the volume of air that your lungs can hold decreases with scar tissue. Not to mention your body changes more cells into ones that produce mucous to get rid of the particles. So you add all this up and the mortality rate from the Chinese population is more than likely going to be higher.
We really, honestly do not know anything about this thing thanks to the fucking Chinese government and are basically waiting for the grown ups in the world to figure this out. For all we know, they're digging mass graves already.
its someplace above 50 million quarantined by now. 11 million is Just Wuhan.
Hahah, yeah, this is biblical.
www.cnn.com
