Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Mike Stoklasa]

This is why they put in a nice solid concrete foundation while waiting for the prefabs to arrive.

Construction started and ended in nine days.

It can take more time than that to do a proper site survey and fix any associated issues and that is pre-construction. You, like the Chinese builders constructing this fake hospital, seem to think that a concrete pad magically solves the problem the earth settling beneath the hundred thousand ton structure that just popped up on the surface.

The person that suggested it would have been better to retrofit an existing facility is the winner here. Or hey, maybe if the CCP didn't lets all of its SARS facilities fall into disrepair they'd have the extra capacity they need.

The first heavy rain is going to cause a media blackout in Wuhan. You won't even hear about it.

 

[Otterly]

“It turns out that the sequence from pShuttle is most closely related to the Spike protein from SARS coronavirus.”
I need to look at this on a bigger screen but is he saying he thinks that sequence is the remains of the plasmid , or the spike protein spliced in via the plasmid? How can he say the latter with that graphic, it’s one, reasonably but not terribly, good alignment.
I’ll need to look at it, but I’m not seeing what he says he’s seeing from that graphic

 

[Rei is shit]

Construction started and ended in nine days.

It can take more time than that to do a proper site survey and fix any associated issues and that is pre-construction. You, like the Chinese builders constructing this fake hospital, seem to think that a concrete pad magically solves the problem the earth settling beneath the hundred thousand ton structure that just popped up on the surface.

The person that suggested it would have been better to retrofit an existing facility is the winner here. Or hey, maybe if the CCP didn't lets all of its SARS facilities fall into disrepair they'd have the extra capacity they need.

The first heavy rain is going to cause a media blackout in Wuhan. You won't even hear about it.

Well first rain for the new hospital will be starting tomorrow, only 1cm though.

 

[Otterly]

Again from that article “The disease progression in of 2019-nCoV is consistent with those seen in animals and humans vaccinated against SARS and then challenged with re-infection. Thus, the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV is an experimental vaccine type must be seriously considered.”

no that doesn’t follow either. It’s word salad. It makes no sense. Firstly no it isn’t, because we don’t know how the immune system is reacting because not enough patients have been looked at. Vaccination and reinfection in one SARS animal model led to worse severity. To do that you need initial vaccination, then reinfection. The same process wouldn’t happen if you were just infected with the one virus once - you need the initial event to prime the immune system then the second one where the immune response isn’t mediated by interferon but the antibodies haven’t kicked in yet. His assertion is just good sounding words parked together. There’s no logical flow there. We don’t know if the response is not interferon based, or if antibodies are being produced, or if eosinophilic damage to lung is happening.
This paragraph alone makes me doubt the rest of the article.

 

[Grotesque Bushes]

Well first rain for the new hospital will be starting tomorrow, only 1cm though.
View attachment 1130221

I will die laughing if the Wuhan Ark takes off during the next proper rainstorm.

 

[Jarolleon]

I don't understand what you're trying to get across here and I think I'm being trolled again. Are you actually saying that if the count of confirmed cases rises at anything but a linear rate, that proves that the Chinese public health services are faking numbers?

You deny that if it is important to have test kits to detect the virus, production of said kits will increase?

The suspicious thing is that a quadratic fit can match it so perfectly. You almost never get R=0.9999 quadratic fits with real data.

Asia will burn and supply chains will have to shift. We might be owing sacrifaces to Nurgle.

I think our own economic turmoil as we try to maintain our lifestyle with half of the world's manufacturing base gone will be that sacrifice.

 

[Ow The Edge]

So an update on my digging into the construction quality of the Just-Add-Concrete InstaHospitals:

(For background, I am a structural engineer with around 3 years of professional experience. I am not yet licensed, which means I do much of the same work as a Professional Engineer, but all of my work checked before it’s stamped. I am absolutely still in the phase of my career where I’m building the fundamentals, so there’s a possibility I could be wrong on some of this).

The first noticeable thing is that the entire construction of at least one of these projects has been live-streamed. That makes my job both easier and harder because everything has been documented, but it will take more time to sift through everything to find the relevant information.

It’s interesting to me that the Chinese would make a propaganda effort out of the construction process. This is both with the livestream process itself and the fucking deluge of surface-level articles in English speaking publications that range from obvious CCP puppet media to Western outlets unwittingly (or wittingly) picking up the party line. Even the Wikipedia entries for the hospitals are obvious party propaganda.

I’ve been to job sites, and I’ll admit the scale of the hospital efforts are impressive. There are a few big head scratchers in terms of the engineering but I’ll need more time to process it. Safety seems quite lax, but it’s by no means a haphazard affair in terms of organization.

My theory is that while displaying the supposed strength of the Chinese construction industry to outside powers is a bonus, the main purpose of the highly publicized construction is to reassure the Chinese people. “Look in awe at the miracle of manpower and see how much the party cares”.

Several articles talked about how with SARS, once the temporary hospitals went up, that meant the virus was on the ropes and things were under control. I’m betting that’s a fabricated talking point, and I’m interested to see where else it crops up.

In terms of design issues, there are a few things that stuck out to me immediately:

1) There are two major kinds of structure in use; the prefabricated stacked rectangular dwellings and prefabricated warehouse/hanger open buildings. The former is still dubious to me in terms of its structural capacity while the latter is incredibly common, including in the US.
2) I don’t see any bolted connection between the prefab units and the foundation. At all. It looks like a reinforced slab on grade, with cut sections of wide flange beams just laid on top of it, and the units stacked on top of those:
View attachment 1130165
View attachment 1130166

It’s possible the beam sections are embedded, but I haven’t found evidence of that so far. And I can’t find anything resembling an anchor rod that’s being tied into the prefabs, even in the poured wall footing around the perimeter. This is such an obvious mistake for light-gage steel construction that I’m going back through every decent photo I can find to see if I missed something. I’ll update it if I’m wrong, but it looks like there’s no way for this structure to transfer lateral loads and overturning loads to the foundation. And that’s even apart from whether or not the units themselves are stout enough to resist extreme lateral loads without folding.

I really hope I’m wrong on this, because if not, then a seismic event or even a particularly bad wind event is going to cause a major fucking problem.

"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make."

 

[⠠⠠⠅⠑⠋⠋⠁⠇⠎ ⠠⠠⠊⠎ ⠠⠠⠁ ⠠⠠⠋⠁⠛]

The suspicious thing is that a quadratic fit can match it so perfectly. You almost never get R=0.9999 quadratic fits with real data.

That R-squared value is clearly not for the full set of data. It's for the 4-5 days that he created the model for.

I'm not going to do the calculations of how much that drops with the first day of actual data he didn't have access to, because it's a futile exercise, but the first actually predicted number was 2-3% off. 3141 vs. 3325 deaths.

If this lunatic's hypothesis was true, it would have been like 5 deaths off, maximum (depending on exactly how the imaginary Chinese 'fake death' model was set up, slightly different coefficients, rounding etc).

It's unsurprising that with hundreds of people trying to overfit to the data, that one of them is going to come up with a model that predicts reasonably well for a day or two. This loser barely managed that. He is a submoron or a shyster and anyone who believes him is a doomcoper.

EDIT: Or, Chinese intelligence snooped on this guy's Excel spreadsheet via his Huawei phone before he even made that tweet and changed their announced death numbers before releasing them to make him look stupid.

 

[Takayuki Yagami]

Not handling the SPF (?) eggs properly, as he had two students snacking on em for supper.

Specific-pathogen-free. They’re eating a very important vector for isolating and culturing viruses. Eggs in particular are good for attenuating viruses for vaccine production. God help them if they have been using them in the lab already.

 

[Rausch]

It says something about China that a prison box is considered a "luxury container".

They call everything luxury; a shitty, dusty, concrete box with graffiti on the walls in an empty building that already has bits falling off it in an empty ghost town suburb that nobody wants to live in outside a Chinese city you've never heard of is called a "luxury condo" (and counted as an asset at a ridiculously marked up value to a Chinese bank somewhere that brags about the value of their assets).

The ambitions of the English during the Boxer Rebellion will look tame by comparison

I think history shows quite clearly that it was the Boxers, not the English, who were the ambitious ones in that little rebellion.

I think our own economic turmoil as we try to maintain our lifestyle with half of the world's manufacturing base gone will be that sacrifice.

The idea of our economic dependence on China is a silly myth put out there by Chinese propagandists and endorsed by international finance, which owns our financial media, because they are making so much money out of the Peoples Ponzi Scheme. No, we'll be fine without China. In fact, we'll be better off. We don't get food or fuel in significant quantity from China so no serious threat to our day to day lives. And if you think China having bought a bunch of US treasuries is the equivalent to having the US over the table, then you don't understand how US treasuries work.

In practice, if you want to buy a plastic bucket or a pack of spoons at Target or you like to buy the latest thing in electronics every few months, then you may find that shit got a bit more expensive while we sort out a new supply chain. We taught them how to do everything and we can teach some other people if necessary. If you work in an industry that sells to China your job may be in danger, but the scale of their operation selling to us is far bigger and therefore the pain on their end is far worse. I'd rather we detached ourself from China and took the economic hit, which won't be that bad anyway. Will make our first tier city property market more affordable and most of the people losing their on-paper wealth in a drop in property prices in London, New York and Toronto are the international rich or ultra-liberal cunts anyway, so fuck 'em. Anyone telling you that the short-term status quo comfort is more important than long-term national viability is either a shill or a cuck and it's as simple as that.

That R-squared value is clearly not for the full set of data... I'm not going to do the calculations of how much that drops with the first day of actual data...

I know that all pro-PRC shills like to LARP as maths experts but ackshually, if you were the best China shill you could be, then you could have just snarkily pointed out how the R squared co-efficient that Excel uses to measure correlation, AKA the co-efficient of determination, is technically designed to measure linear correlation and using it to measure quadratic correlation is arguably therefore a little on the sloppy side.

It's unsurprising that with hundreds of people trying to overfit to the data, that one of them is going to come up with a model that predicts reasonably well for a day or two. This loser barely managed that. He is a submoron or a shyster and anyone who believes him is a doomcoper.

The fact your jimmies got so rustled shows it's a good meme. And it's a good meme because it speaks to the truth; everyone knows that the data is fake, everyone knows that Xi Jinping himself doesn't have an exact tally and is working with estimates because the Chinese lie about data to each other as well and everyone knows that the Chinese are massaging the numbers they do have to try to give the "perfectly to be expected, nothing to panic about here" message. Therefore it's pretty funny when a guy openly approaches the problem with the priorities of a Chinese propagandist and correctly proposes what is more or less the solution that they end up going with ahead of time. He doesn't have to have discovered an actual hidden formula which would necessarily be then tweaked arbitrarily afterwards anyway for the point to have still been made. Could be a co-incidence, sure. But of course the Chinese are thinking carefully about their fake data; after all, they've been autistically extrapolating GDP growth trends in to the future to predict their global domination for decades now (a simple little ruse that appears to have fooled hundreds of millions of Changs) and the last thing they want to do is create a future projection that points conclusively towards Zombie Holocaust.

 

[XYZpdq]

If they're not bolted down it means they can just dig a pit next to them and push the rooms in and not have to clean out the bodies.

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

Sina Visitor System

Can someone who reads and understands mandarin/chinese can properly translate this ?

google translate says this

"Nanjing issued a notice to further strengthen community management during epidemic prevention and control: fully implemented community closed management, all people entering and leaving the community must wear masks. Strict inspection and registration of vehicle personnel in the community.

Strengthen community environmental governance and management of rental housing. If an outbreak occurs in a rented house without a timely report, the leasing unit or individual of the house will be held accountable according to law."

Spoiler

I found it on zero hedge , so please correct me if this is for real ?

 

[⠠⠠⠅⠑⠋⠋⠁⠇⠎ ⠠⠠⠊⠎ ⠠⠠⠁ ⠠⠠⠋⠁⠛]

The fact your jimmies got so rustled shows it's a good meme. And it's a good meme because it speaks to the truth; everyone knows that the data is fake, everyone knows that Xi Jinping himself doesn't have an exact tally and is working with estimates because the Chinese lie about data to each other as well and everyone knows that the Chinese are massaging the numbers they do have to try to give the "perfectly to be expected, nothing to panic about here" message. Therefore it's pretty funny when a guy openly approaches the problem with the priorities of a Chinese propagandist and correctly proposes what is more or less the solution that they end up going with ahead of time. He doesn't have to have discovered an actual hidden formula which would necessarily be then tweaked arbitrarily afterwards anyway for the point to have still been made. Could be a co-incidence, sure. But of course the Chinese are thinking carefully about their fake data; after all, they've been autistically extrapolating GDP growth trends in to the future to predict their global domination for decades now (a simple little ruse that appears to have fooled hundreds of millions of Changs) and the last thing they want to do is create a future projection that points conclusively towards Zombie Holocaust.

Lol, keep coping. I will enjoy shoving the excellent response of the socialist national government of China in your face, forever.

Are you another of these CHinA neDs DemOCRacY types?

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

Lol, keep coping. I will enjoy shoving the excellent response of the social nationalist government of China in your face, forever.

Will you also childishly shove negative autism skittles in the face of those that rustled your jimmies, forever?
E: I take that Autistic-Rating as a yes.

 

[Ow The Edge]

Lol, keep coping. I will enjoy shoving the excellent response of the socialist national government of China in your face, forever.

Are you another of these CHinA neDs DemOCRacY types?

Once again the big muslim badass shills for the literal atheist dictatorship. I wonder why that could be?

Oh yeah, because Pooh Bear literally owns you.

 

[Without A Gout]

You know the one thing I've really noticed in China since coronavirus has taken hold: There are still very few people wearing eye protection in the videos.

The eyes have mucus membranes, and a Chinese doctor even said that he was infected by his eyes. That could explain the still-rampant transmission of the disease: They're getting infected because those walking about aren't protecting their eyes.

This could explain why people are still getting infected at high rates. That and the crowded emergency rooms, the poor sanitation and hygiene, the lack of resources, poor information, and the CCP itself.

 

[Tour of Italy]

They call everything luxury; a shitty, dusty, concrete box with graffiti on the walls in an empty building that already has bits falling off it in an empty ghost town suburb that nobody wants to live in outside a Chinese city you've never heard of is called a "luxury condo" (and counted as an asset at a ridiculously marked up value to a Chinese bank somewhere that brags about the value of their assets).

As a side note while looking into this, I found a lot of these shitty prefab’s being marketed as “container houses” on Alibaba, which is absurd, and frankly dangerous, false advertising.

“Shipping container” homes are a bit of a meme, so they’re trying to capitalize on that. It’s not even close though. No sir. The prefabs have a fraction of the steel thickness on the main structural frame, weak-ass infill walls as opposed to heavy gage steel with deep corrugation, and, most importantly, no fucking welds at the connections for moment transfer.

It’s literally a Made-in-China version of the real thing, with marketing designed to prey on morons dumb enough to live in them.

 

[Computer Boy]

Chinese women in nyc attacked for wearing a mask.

Tony He on Twitter

“Chinese woman gets attacked for wearing a mask in nyc. #coronaviruschina #coronavirus #NYC https://t.co/IlaYC9aMjE”

twitter.com

Notice that the attacker is black

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

In case any one of your kiwis work at a molecular lab and has blast software, here is a conspiracy theory that can easily be proven/debunked:

On the Origins of the 2019-nCoV Virus, Wuhan, China

James Lyons-Weiler, PhD – 1/30/2020 UPDATE – 2/9/2020 – IPAK HAS CONDUCTED FURTHER, IN-DEPTH STUDIES OF THE GENOMIC AN PROTEIN SEQUENCES OF THE 2019-nCoV CORONAVIRUSES AND THEIR R…

jameslyonsweiler.com

You can ignore all other claims in the article but note how he claimed to have found an nCov S protein analogue in pShuttle-SN (Addgen #16402) potentially better than RaTG13.
Does it really match?

BLAST is available for free to anyone. It's actually pretty easy to use. Here's a BLAST analysis from last week confirming someone's finding of possible recombinant RNA from another coronavirus (this can happen naturally & phylogenetic analysis is needed to understand origin of the virus) and correcting the false claim that it's an insert of "old human SARS" (it isn't). If anyone is curious to learn how to use some bioinformatics tools, that exercise and the one in this post should be easy to replicate. You can BLAST directly from the NCBI page of the sequence data. Just realize that this tool is usually just to get an initial understanding of the sequence. It's a simplistic & kind of biased view, but it's good for forming predictions if you don't have much familiarity w the sequence yet.

Let's look at exactly where they claim to have found a match. This pic was shown on the article:

Okay, let's recreate this. if you wanna try it out yourself, WuFlu is here, pShuttle-NS is here. You can also get to the BLAST tool from here.
Run the sequences against each other and query the subranges that were pointed out above. (EDIT: I realized after doing this that even though I got the ranges from this pic they probably weren't trying to specifically indicate that window as being more important. you could do this without specifying subranges and the result is p much the same. pairing estimates are better quality, but the identity score is still dogshit. this essentially allows you to be more confident in your judgement of how dogshit it is lol)

Uh... nope.

Fine, let's try being really lenient.

Got it now... wait, LOL a 65.7% match? This is what we're claiming is the evidence of genetic engineering?

Is that really the best match we can get for this little sequence? Try doing a simple search on that same genomic window of the WuFlu sequence using the same criteria, but not forcing BLAST to align it onto pShuttle-SN. Just asking it to pull out the most statistically significant matches.

Well would you look at that. The sequence is not only found in wild type coronavirus, but is an even more significant match to the wild type.

It's important to realize that all of these (including pShuttle-SN from earlier) have relatively weak E-values. The E-value is like a quality test, and tells how confident you can be in the result. Sort of like p-values, you want very low numbers. High numbers mean that the result isn't really statistically significant and matches could by occurring by chance. Anything higher than 1*10^-50 would not be significant enough for considering direct matches. These E-values could be decent enough to look into homology, and the identity % appears more indicative of homology anyway. Almost like coronaviruses descend from each other or something

This sequence even has a better alignment score to actual-fucking-SARS so it's funny to me that he felt the need mention some random ass sequence to make his conspiracy theory. I guess he was trying to make it more mysterious by claiming that it comes from "the 1980’s in China to create a more immunogenic coronavirus"... pay no attention to the fact that this shit was created in 2005 for a study into developing a vaccine for SARS lmao. Did SARS-like viruses even exist in the 80s?

TL;DR: so yeah, in short, this is bullshit. it's not even accidental bullshit, this guy manufactured a hoax. thanks for the problem, it was fun.

 

[LetThemEatCake]

International scoreboard, as of 04/02/20: