Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Yeah, it's all just guesswork at the moment . ( I believe ,anyway). I rely on this thread as my news aggregator for WuFlu and I don't think any harder figures have been published.

For the maths, I was just going on your numbers : 330,000,000 * 0.6 * 0.02 . Pretty much 4 million, not 800K .


Nobody around me (UK city) seems to be remotely worried at the moment. Though all sources of masks have been sold out for a while, and now I notice that foaming anti-viral handwash seems to be very hard to get hold of. So someone's stocking up.

Yea I fucked up the math :p
 
Indeed. Remember when the Berlin Wall came down, then in short order all the Communist regimes in Eastern Europe collapsed, almost without bloodshed, then the Soviet Union also collapsed, almost without bloodshed. An incredible time to be alive. Can tell you nobody here ever expected those things to happen except through WWIII.

Can it happen in China? Anything can happen, anywhere. One thing people tend to forget is that ANY government depends on the consent of the governed to function. Things in the USA work because the vast majority of us have bought into the system. Same in the Soviet Union, and the Eastern Bloc Communist countries, until people stopped buying into the system enough that there was nowhere for the government to go. Most of these governments slipped away quietly. Romania was an example, but that fuck Ceaucescu and his bitch of a wife deserved every bullet that hit them. Russia had some violence, confined to Moscow, and there was the attempted coup. But at the appointed time President of the USSR Gorbachev handed the nuclear football to Russian President Yeltsin, he walked away, and the red flag of the USSR was replaced with the tricolor of Russia.

My advice, based having made it to the seventh decade of life - be shocked, but not surprised, at ANYTHING that happens in China. And when things happen, they can happen very quickly indeed. To those who say the CCP will never go down, my reply is that's what we thought about the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union in February 1989.
Uncle Joe you fill me with :optimistic: in this time of uncertainty, thanks man
 
is the 14 day even accurate anymore? there was a guy who was infected for 34 days after returning from Wuhan.

I'm guessing he CDC is still going off of SARS.

"Symptoms
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For confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death. Symptoms can include:

Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS-CoV viruses."


Edit: Forgot quotes.
 
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Yikes. This virus is costing them a FUCKTON of money.
 
is the 14 day even accurate anymore? there was a guy who was infected for 34 days after returning from Wuhan.
There was a chick that was infected for something like 40 days before the symptoms started to worsen, thought it was BS but more and more cases like it are popping up, def seems like it largely fluctuates from case to case, weird, but I’m sure we’ll know a lot more in a week or two.
 
is the 14 day even accurate anymore? there was a guy who was infected for 34 days after returning from Wuhan.

I get the feeling it's more likely there are mild cases that they came in contact with after the fact without knowing and not that the virus was incubating for those time periods. The problem with this thing is that some people are clearly experiencing it very mildly and that the symptoms are flu like. So if you don't get it really bad you could have it, expose other people too it, and it would seem like there's this long incubation when really you were exposed in the two-ish weeks prior without any party having knowledge of it because the person who infected you assumed they just had the common cold/flu and went about their day- with it clearing up with very little other symptoms like a standard cold would.
 
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Yikes. This virus is costing them a FUCKTON of money.

I'll say. Been following along with how much this is crippling mainland China and their economy is the thing that gives me the most schadenfreude. This is the straw that broke the CCP's back; the Achilles' Heel to their trade war with the Trump Administration. Basic needs are drying up and their bread & circus entertainment vectors are now following the same trend.

They are precariously close to having another population kill-off the likes of WWII or the Great Leap if they can't get things in their own country under control. I just hope the blowback stays localized to them and doesn't have global ramifications aside from manufacturing sectors returning to North America and elsewhere.
 
View attachment 1149824

View attachment 1149826

Yikes. This virus is costing them a FUCKTON of money.
"temporary" i doubt it will ever recover to what it previously was, no matter how much slave labor they put forth to make cheap iPhones i don't think most companies will be willing to open up shop in China again. i think this will be a big wake up call to companies about how fragile china is and how everything can instantly collapse if you rely solely on import from 1 source.
 
"temporary" i doubt it will ever recover to what it previously was, no matter how much slave labor they put forth to make cheap iPhones i don't think most companies will be willing to open up shop in China again. i think this will be a big wake up call to companies about how fragile china is and how everything can instantly collapse if you rely solely on import from 1 source.

They will be willing to open up shop, the potential market is too large to ignore. Though the illusion of the "Asian century" some people could not shut up about previously is pretty much dead as this point and good riddance. There was already a trend of manufacturers moving out of china to places like Vietnam, hopefully it continues.
 
I'll say. Been following along with how much this is crippling mainland China and their economy is the thing that gives me the most schadenfreude. This is the straw that broke the CCP's back; the Achilles' Heel to their trade war with the Trump Administration. Basic needs are drying up and their bread & circus entertainment vectors are now following the same trend.

They are precariously close to having another population kill-off the likes of WWII or the Great Leap if they can't get things in their own country under control. I just hope the blowback stays localized to them and doesn't have global ramifications aside from manufacturing sectors returning to North America and elsewhere.
Indeed:

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Some of its retail stores in the country remain closed or are operating at reduced hours, which will hurt sales this quarter. China accounted for 15% of Apple’s revenue, or $13.6 billion, last quarter, and supplied 18% of revenue in the year-ago quarter.
In late January, Apple had forecast $63 billion to $67 billion in revenue for the quarter ending in March. It did not offer a new revenue estimate nor provide a profit forecast on Monday.
“The magnitude of this impact to miss its revenue guidance midway through February is clearly worse than feared,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note.
Apple’s stock is expected to face a knee-jerk reaction on Tuesday, when Wall Street reopens after the Presidents Day holiday, Ives said.
Analysts have estimated that the virus may slash demand for smartphones by half in the first quarter in China, the world’s biggest market for the devices.
Oof!
 
After the huge jump, case numbers are stabilizing. Up to 1873 dead. Is this the virus plateauing, or is this merely the calm before another major increase in cases, or worse, the beginning of Stage 2?

Late last week, China "redefined" what having coronavirus means to decrease the number of confirmed cases because it sounds a lot better that, for example, only 8 confirmed and 48 suspected died instead of 56 confirmed dying.

Also, if the virus was plateauing, 780 million Chinese wouldn't still be on lockdown lol
 
I'll say. Been following along with how much this is crippling mainland China and their economy is the thing that gives me the most schadenfreude. This is the straw that broke the CCP's back; the Achilles' Heel to their trade war with the Trump Administration. Basic needs are drying up and their bread & circus entertainment vectors are now following the same trend.

They are precariously close to having another population kill-off the likes of WWII or the Great Leap if they can't get things in their own country under control. I just hope the blowback stays localized to them and doesn't have global ramifications aside from manufacturing sectors returning to North America and elsewhere.

This is also the thing that puts paid to China's bluster about being a great power. This thing has kicked the CCP and Xi's ass, royally. This has shown the world that China doesn't have feet of clay, they have feet of shit. The world also sees how the CCP deals with a major calamity - arrest those raising the alarm. The world also sees how the CCP treats people who are sick - like animals. Will never forget seeing the couple put into a metal box on the back of a pickup. That is not the act of a great country, that's the act of a bunch of CCP thugs scared Beijing will chop their heads off as sacrificial lambs, which is going to happen anyway.

We aren't talking just sick/dead people, either. Swine flu still going on. Avian flu happening. Must question if the CCP can effectively handle all three problems, and I believe you would agree the answer is no.

Xi really needs to think about just what's happened. His glittering cities have Third World-level health care and water systems. His people cannot feed and supply the millions they have incarcerated in their own homes. Does Xi believe the people will forget this? Does Xi believe people will forget all the loved ones the CCP left to die? Does he think he has the respect of any major world leader any more? I don't think so. Yeah, they'll work with him, but now the game has changed. You can bet President Trump knows this; he can smell blood in the water.

Going a bit further, this needs to be a wake-up call to the world economy. They've put too many eggs in one basket, and the basket's been damaged. Some companies had already moved out of China. More will do so as soon as possible, to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, maybe India, Mexico, and some will come to or return to the USA. Gonna need to revisit this "just-in-time" shit, too. Not working real well these days, is it. Not going to kill anyone to have a month's worth of parts on hand. Dumbest fucking thing I ever heard of. You need a system that has a measure of resilience. Now, the money these companies think they've saved gets spent to buy parts somewhere else, or is lost due to inability to produce.

When this is over, and it will end some day, I look for every Chinese that can afford to do so and who can get out to get the fuck out. No longer an upside to staying in China. Don't believe the CCP will do any better at handling the next catastrophe. They have not learned. All the CCP cares about is staying in power.

The Chinese people are a great people. They have given much to the world. Sadly, they've always suffered under one-man rule. So not to rag on any non-spy Chinese. They didn't let the virus loose. They may have loved ones sick or dead there. They are human beings, too. They love. They hurt. Save the anger for the inhuman CCP.
 
After the huge jump, case numbers are stabilizing. Up to 1873 dead. Is this the virus plateauing, or is this merely the calm before another major increase in cases, or worse, the beginning of Stage 2?
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How about who is reporting those numbers... the answer is FUCK NO. It's not slowing down, its increasing. It's just Chinaland's fucking lying again. And the reason why is to try to hide the bullshit about how fucking bad this shithole of a country is.

Update:
The Downfall Of China's Economy - Vietnam Takeover? 17:11 minutes 2/17/2020

At the 4:25 mark is one of the many reasons why I stopped doing business over there.
 
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