Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Pink Panther said:
how
Click to expand...

The Pink Panther said:
True, but more people died from the swine flu at the same rate than the coronavirus and precautions were taken in a timely manner. Now all of a sudden, 10 years later, with all of our social media, news fearmongering, and all of that bullshit, now everything fucking shuts down. Why?
Click to expand...

Have you not paid any attention at all? The flu has a 0.1% fatality rate. Coronavirus, at the moment, is averaging 3.5%, with death rates in places like Italy exceeding 5%. If it starts to spread more aggressively (again, see italy), the healthcare system cant keep up, leading to more deaths and total country.

You know why coronavirus is causing panic? Because in addition to being aggressive when it goes bad and being highly contagious, it is utterly unpredictable. Multiple strains have been detected, incubation time seems to be anywhere from a few days to upwards of a MONTH, carriers can be asymptomatic for upwards of 14 days, and infections are likely far more widespread then we have measured and keep popping up in random places.

H1N1 was predictable in its spread. It could be contained. It's method of transmission, incubation, risks, treatment, and spread were all known quantities. Coronavirus is a giant unknown, and people fear what they dont know, for good reason. We still dont know if this disease causes reinfection by hiding in the body ALA dengue fever, or if these multiple strains can infect the same person one after another.

Some numbers for you:

The FLU has infected over 13 million people this year, and killed 0.05% of them in the USA. That's 6600 deaths, from an aggressive season (incidentally, H1N1 is one of the active strains this year). At its current rate, if the coronavirus infects just 1 million people in the US, that would be 50,000 deaths. If it infects half of what the flu has so far managed, that would be 325,000 deaths. In the other direction, if coronavirus, at its current fatality rate, infects 130,000 people in the US, it will kill the same number of people the flu did with 13 million infections. THAT is why people are freaking out. If coronavirus becomes widespread, it will put the Spanish flu to shame. If italy is any indication, the west is no less at risk of major casualties then china was, we are just on a long time delay.

Or maybe we arn't. It could peter out by the springtime. It could provide a far lower fatality rate int he US VS italy. Italy could have a particularly aggressive strain, others have pointed out italy's population is very old with a high percentage of smokers and a culture that promotes facial touch that benefits coronavirus transmission. We dont know, and until we do know, the disease will continue to inspire fear in many people.

Edit to specify USA numbers.
 
Last edited:
  • Winner
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: Godzilla1984, spiritofamermaid, Alodar and 39 others
we had a positive case, the government self-quarantined, the family says no one told them, so everyone this person went around town and everyone that went to the same place might be at risk.

it's sad watching all the events, schools, unis and coporate campuses, announce they're closing because they have to go through a "hospital-level" cleaning.
 
  • Like
  • Feels
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, GloJojo, Slick Willy and 3 others
DNA_JACKED said:
Have you not paid any attention at all? The flu has a 0.1% fatality rate. Coronavirus, at the moment, is averaging 3.5%, with death rates in places like Italy exceeding 5%. If it starts to spread more aggressively (again, see italy), the healthcare system cant keep up, leading to more deaths and total country.

You know why coronavirus is causing panic? Because in addition to being aggressive when it goes bad and being highly contagious, it is utterly unpredictable. Multiple strains have been detected, incubation time seems to be anywhere from a few days to upwards of a MONTH, carriers can be asymptomatic for upwards of 14 days, and infections are likely far more widespread then we have measured and keep popping up in random places.

H1N1 was predictable in its spread. It could be contained. It's method of transmission, incubation, risks, treatment, and spread were all known quantities. Coronavirus is a giant unknown, and people fear what they dont know, for good reason. We still dont know if this disease causes reinfection by hiding in the body ALA dengue fever, or if these multiple strains can infect the same person one after another.

Some numbers for you:

The FLU has infected over 13 million people this year, and killed 0.05% of them in the USA. That's 6600 deaths, from an aggressive season (incidentally, H1N1 is one of the active strains this year). At its current rate, if the coronavirus infects just 1 million people in the US, that would be 50,000 deaths. If it infects half of what the flu has so far managed, that would be 325,000 deaths. In the other direction, if coronavirus, at its current fatality rate, infects 130,000 people in the US, it will kill the same number of people the flu did with 13 million infections. THAT is why people are freaking out. If coronavirus becomes widespread, it will put the Spanish flu to shame. If italy is any indication, the west is no less at risk of major casualties then china was, we are just on a long time delay.

Or maybe we arn't. It could peter out by the springtime. It could provide a far lower fatality rate int he US VS italy. Italy could have a particularly aggressive strain, others have pointed out italy's population is very old with a high percentage of smokers and a culture that promotes facial touch that benefits coronavirus transmission. We dont know, and until we do know, the disease will continue to inspire fear in many people.

Edit to specify USA numbers.
Click to expand...

Where are you getting a 5% death rate?
 
  • Like
  • Thunk-Provoking
  • Agree
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, Slick Willy, Clockwork_PurBle and 5 others
Friend of a friend.

1583983833547.png
 
  • Feels
  • Like
  • Thunk-Provoking
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, Autistic lurker, GloJojo and 42 others
I can't imagine said:
I'm pretty sure they're taking the confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths and dividing them. Which doesn't really seem like the most accurate way to figure that out, but I'm no epidemiologist.
Click to expand...

That is only in Italy, and I am going to guess that there's a lot of people who have not been tested or showing real tame symptoms.
 
  • Agree
  • Like
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, Autistic lurker, Slick Willy and 11 others
Shield Breaker said:
That is only in Italy, and I am going to guess that there's a lot of people who have not been tested or showing real tame symptoms.
Click to expand...

That would be my assumption as well, which is why I suspect the number is somewhat smaller than 5%. Most of what I've seen put the estimate at 1-2%, but we really won't know for a few months.
 
  • Like
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, Slick Willy, MarvinTheParanoidAndroid and 4 others
For all those going around saying, "Oh, it's not that bad, why are we overreacting? Why all these unnecessary precautions? It's not a pandemic yet!" I just want to ask them if they realize that the whole point of these "unnecessary precautions" is so it DOESN'T become a pandemic. THat's the whole fucking point. You'd think they want it to get worse.
Also, history has shown that it's better to be safe than sorry.
 
  • Like
  • Late
  • Agree
Reactions: Shoggoth, AnitaSarsleezian, GloJojo and 23 others
Mrs Paul said:
For all those going around saying, "Oh, it's not that bad, why are we overreacting? Why all these unnecessary precautions? It's not a pandemic yet!" I just want to ask them if they realize that the whole point of these "unnecessary precautions" is so it DOESN'T become a pandemic. THat's the whole fucking point. You'd think they want it to get worse.
Also, history has shown that it's better to be safe than sorry.
Click to expand...

WHO just finally said it's a pandemic so nyah
 
  • Like
  • Feels
  • DRINK!
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, IAmNotAlpharius, BONE_Buddy and 9 others
Mrs Paul said:
For all those going around saying, "Oh, it's not that bad, why are we overreacting? Why all these unnecessary precautions? It's not a pandemic yet!" I just want to ask them if they realize that the whole point of these "unnecessary precautions" is so it DOESN'T become a pandemic. THat's the whole fucking point. You'd think they want it to get worse.
Also, history has shown that it's better to be safe than sorry.
Click to expand...
It's been a pandemic for ages. WHO only just wiki'd the definition.

But yes, these are all sensible precautions even in the best case scenario where this turns out to just basically be like running three or four concurrent flu seasons.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AnitaSarsleezian, spiritofamermaid, GloJojo and 8 others
Shield Breaker said:
That is only in Italy, and I am going to guess that there's a lot of people who have not been tested or showing real tame symptoms.
Click to expand...

Italy had SARS-CoV-2 spread through an ICU so it got real bad. viz. WA having it spread through multiple SNFs.

SK is testing like crazy and most everyone infected in that weird cult was like <40s so their mortality rate is really low.
 
  • Informative
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: spiritofamermaid, GloJojo, Slick Willy and 6 others
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back