IMO, it could go either way depending on how Trump handles the whole coronavirus issue in the following weeks. Trump's path to reelection could literally become a gold-plated moving walkway if normalcy is quickly restored and the death count kept relatively low, or it might become considerably bumpier if things last too long. I think he should have shut up about the stock market long ago, since the stock market =/= the economy.
Twitter is a poor indicator of the general mood of ultranormie society (only 20% of all adults are on Twitter), and legacy media still has an oversized influence, unfortunately.
Biden's townhalls are unconvincing, but his greatest virtue is that he offers a return to a boring Obama-era 'Dignified Presidentialness'. Basically promising a respite from all the craziness of the last four years. Legacy media will cover for him, but Trump can make his largest impact by debates and using his accumulated warchest in Ad/GOTV drives (Bloomberg will likely cover for Biden).
Biden's presidency will likely be driven from the back seat by the State Department and the VP, and he's likely China's preferred candidate (since they were in cahoots with the Obama presidency).
Bernie can do his best by staying on like a tick and making the Democrats waste time settling the candidacy.
Well, Trump's approval rating had a 5-point jump in the past week. He's almost sitting pretty at a 50% approval rating. If he keeps that up, then that alone should pave his path to victory in November. I expect his numbers to climb more as this crisis goes on, especially after what the Democrats in Congress pulled this week, which was heinous and vindictive in every which way.
You consider that, and then you take into account that Trump is literally on TV every single day with those press conferences about the virus. It's been confirmed that those press conferences receive really high ratings/viewership, too. Him being on a public stage like that every single day, in a time of crisis (which is historically kind to incumbents), is doing him ALL of the favors right now. Not to mention that Trump's tone throughout all of this has not been one of panic or dread; his tone has been both a determined and an optimistic tone ... Americans like optimism, especially in times like these.
You compare that to Joe Biden, who completely went MIA when this pandemic started to impact the country. This week, he's finally out of hiding, doing interviews with softball questions ... And he can't even get through
those without looking senile. He's reluctant to debate Bernie at this point as well, with his campaign claiming that the two of them have "debated enough." Going up against Joe Biden should be an absolute cakewalk for Trump at this point, at least in the debates.
With Biden, everyone really has to pay attenton to who he picks as his running mate. Right now, I can actually see that person being Andrew Cuomo or Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is simply detestable among most voters (and she's a loser-- so there's bad optics on that alone), and Andrew Cuomo would get obliterated by the Trump campaign. The health industry in New York has taken hit after hit
for years under his governing. He had the chance 5 years ago to stock up the hospitals with ventilators, and he didn't do it, for starters. You have Pence say that on the debate stage, and Cuomo is fucking
done-zo.
And then there's Bernie. Well, if Bernie really IS staying in it to try to win it, then Trump doesn't have to do much to obliterate him. Bernie wasn't even there to vote on the COVID-19 relief bill a few days ago. The man is a snake oil salesman, and he can't even beat a flat-out senile Joe Biden. What chance does he have against Trump? Haha.
So yeah, unless Trump does something policy-wise that will damage the economy even further, then I anticipate a pretty easy victory for him in November.
www.nytimes.com
