Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Another bit of data to chew on this Friday morning. Coronavirus has been spreading officially for 4 months, likely however its been spreading for 5 months, since mid november. In that time, it has killed around 25,000 worldwide.

Now, H1N1, from the 2009 breakout, spread for 14 months before widespread vaccinations and herd immunity put a stop to its rampant infections. In that time, the official death toll reached 125,000 direct deaths. If you also count in pneumonia related deaths (as we do for corona), the death toll is over 500,000. HALF A MILLION. And this number is likely too low, as the hardest hit areas were unable to keep accurate records, the total death tool could be even higher. One of these hard hit countries without reliable data is......china.

So even if corona manged to double her kill count, then double it again, it still wouldnt be half of what H1N1 killed in 2009. The age range of fatalities was unusually low, primarily hitting the 30-50 age bracket, and with significantly more deaths in the 18-29 bracket then the normal flu. Corona primarily targets the old and the infirm, the 50 and under brackets make up a vanishingly tiny fraction of total deaths. Now consider the reaction countries around the world had to H1N1 VS corona. Leads some support to this being caused by hysterical boomers in office freaking out at being the primary fatality demographic, VS H1N1 where the young were the primary fatalities and politicians did fuck all.
 
I have to ask. What are the opinions that most or half of the population of some countries is already infected based on? I thought you'd be seeing many more deaths if that was the case. Many more. I tend to use South Korea as a reference when considering the coronavirus. They have a pretty good idea of the extent of the epidemic in their society because they're currently doing 15.000+ tests daily and getting roughly 100 detections out of that. If they had a significant, unknown and uncontrolled spread, it would show in this kind of screening. So their sample is 9300 cases and a total death rate of 1% or so. Translated to half of Great Britain or United States... well, let's not go there. What am I missing here?
 
Has anyone posted this before? A major happening in China right now. Workers weren't allowed to go back to factories over coronavirus concerns despite the fact that they were promised to return to work soon. People are mad.

There are MASSIVE protests developing right now on the Jiujiang Yangtze River Bridge that joins the Hubei and Jiangxi provinces in Eastern China. The situation is rapidly evolving.
Edit: Link to the rest of videos

 
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Some new news from Iran:
Holy shit, Iran, what are you doing? Nearly 300 fucking people dead due to methanol poisoning...

because nothing adds fun to a Pandemic Plague quite like Wil-e-coyote style medicine. “does anybody have a match?”
 
I have to ask. What are the opinions that most or half of the population of some countries is already infected based on? I thought you'd be seeing many more deaths if that was the case. Many more. I tend to use South Korea as a reference when considering the coronavirus. They have a pretty good idea of the extent of the epidemic in their society because they're currently doing 15.000+ tests daily and getting roughly 100 detections out of that. If they had a significant, unknown and uncontrolled spread, it would show in this kind of screening. So their sample is 9300 cases and a total death rate of 1% or so. Translated to half of Great Britain or United States... well, let's not go there. What am I missing here?

They pull the number out of their ass. I say the number of deaths or ether higher or lower than the real ones, so nobody really knows.
 
Archive
Finland buys a large number of respirators from China - "Price is higher than normal"
Jesus fucking Christ
edit: context
For two months we've been hearing from our politicians how well prepared we are for any kind of emergency. That we have plans in place and things are generally very well under control. That National Emergency Supply Agency (archive) has enough PPE and other shit to get us through a reasonable stretch of time in a crisis.
Our response overall has been atrocious. Politicians lollygagged for weeks and didn't take proper measures until it was too late.
When there was no chance in hell in containing or even reasonably slowing down the spread of the virus.
All this time their message has been overly optimistic.

Source | Archive
Finland has been prepared for the coronavirus epidemic, and according to STM, there is a good amount of protective equipment needed for research and treatment of patients. The STM announced this already on Tuesday. In the first phase, each area receives a proportion of protective material commensurate with its population base. “They're not running out. According to the contingency plans of the hospital districts, different actors have basic stocks. Protective equipment is available throughout the country, but can be moved to an area with more outbreaks when needed, ”the STM said in a news release.

News from Monday 3.23
Source | Archive
Päivi Sillanaukee, Director General of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (STM), told the YLE studio in YLE on Monday that the ministry is deciding to open Finland's National Emergency Supply warehouses. - That means, if you look at the numbers, millions of surgical goggles, masks and hundreds of thousands of respirators are now in use. They will not end, Sillanaukee comments.

Apparently we cannot manufacture this shit ourselves, so now we're buying respirators from fucking China.
For a higher price of course.
Fuck China, fuck it all.
 
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Most of the insanity in Supermarkets of hoarding seems to be going down now matters are being enforced and settled.

Field report from last night's supermarket visit:

Very few people there. Everyone being pressed to use the self scan handset things if you can.

Most things readily available. Some persistent shortages: all types of canned/prepared tomato product, no onions whatsoever, all dried pasta gone, no baked beans, still no toilet roll. (I still don't get the toilet roll thing.) Lots of things on "two items only per customer" but multipacks count as one item.

You're ok for just about everything in terms of frozen stuff, but most people have smallish freezers which is probably the rate limiter there.

As for fresh stuff... ready prepared/easily prepared meats (mince, sausages, cut up chicken breasts etc) all gone. If I was hazarding a guess, I think more people are cooking at home due to lockdown but have a pretty basic repertoire, hence the fresh and tinned/dried staples being gone. I think there's an awful lot of spaghetti bolognese getting eaten this week in the UK. If your mam is not much of a cook, I think lockdown is going to get old fast.

Bread, milk supplies all fine but still no sign of flour and ancillary baking products. I think the ignored breadmakers of the UK are finally having their moment.

Expensive joints/cuts of meat readily available and actually on offer. If you're smart about using leftovers, there are some deals to be had. Got a big turkey drumstick marked down to two quid which is currently becoming a big pot of soup.

On the other hand, mother's favoured supermarket is in a dense residential area and is walking distance for thousands of people, including many elderly and vulnerable. It's continually running short of staples and non staples. Purchase limiting is being strictly enforced but I think there are just an awful lot of people coming there. I don't think it's a supply chain issue. I also heard anecdotally that households have been trying to visit it several times a day to catch restocks of stuff especially the dreaded toilet roll.

tl;dr don't know how it is where you guys are but the supply lines seem to be holding up fine, enjoy ur spag bol
 
I have to ask. What are the opinions that most or half of the population of some countries is already infected based on? I thought you'd be seeing many more deaths if that was the case. Many more. I tend to use South Korea as a reference when considering the coronavirus. They have a pretty good idea of the extent of the epidemic in their society because they're currently doing 15.000+ tests daily and getting roughly 100 detections out of that. If they had a significant, unknown and uncontrolled spread, it would show in this kind of screening. So their sample is 9300 cases and a total death rate of 1% or so. Translated to half of Great Britain or United States... well, let's not go there. What am I missing here?
They are testing who HAS the virus. So even a korea is missing those who have HAD it. They’re only seeing a snapshot of current infections. Now that is without context of where you are in the progress of the epidemic.
The paper that says half may have had it relies on the assumption that 0.1% of cases have severe illness and I think everything points to that being far too low.
All the models are guesses until we have a widespread testing of a sample of the population for both current and past infection, and repeat that a few times.
 
The Henry Ford Hospital System in Detroit posted this cheery message about triage:

BAHAMb.jpg


Edit: It's legit. Twitter (archive).





(archive)
 
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On the other hand, mother's favoured supermarket is in a dense residential area and is walking distance for thousands of people, including many elderly and vulnerable. It's continually running short of staples and non staples. Purchase limiting is being strictly enforced but I think there are just an awful lot of people coming there. I don't think it's a supply chain issue. I also heard anecdotally that households have been trying to visit it several times a day to catch restocks of stuff especially the dreaded toilet roll.

tl;dr don't know how it is where you guys are but the supply lines seem to be holding up fine, enjoy ur spag bol

Friends of mine were going a good 20-odd miles out of their way to get supplies, when their nearest supermarket is usually less than 500 yards off but in a town of tens of thousands. So there's been a lot of extra traffic to and from places recently.
 
I have no idea if this is legit or not, but the Henry Ford Hospital System in Detroit supposedly posted this cheery triage message:

View attachment 1204907
Fuckin a, I get to nod off on pharmaceutical grade opiates while I drift away? I'd ask for that even if they want to ventilate me.
 
News from India:

Coronavirus infected 25-year-old mingled with ONE THOUSAND guests at wedding in Dombivli
 
This may sound dumb but...how do people get from ship to ship in a fleet?

There's also a maneuver called a "hi-line transfer" and it's buzznuts.

I've seen it with my own eyes.


 
We've been wondering lately why the initial flood of video/media content from China seemingly dried up for a while.

This thread on twitter (archive) has a new batch of videos. They appear to show some incidents of civil unrest and border tensions between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces. Hubei has reportedly lifted its quarantine, but other provinces are pressing X hard.
I'll try to upload them here, :optimistic: hoping they'll show up while the site is under heavy load and media has limited functionality. I have local copies regardless, and the videos aren't large.

Edit: Somewhat ninja'd by @Autistic lurker













Update 12:00pm CST - A different clip was posted, showing some angles and scenes not included in the above snippets. Note the sheer size of the crowd on that bridge at the beginning.


Paying my ⏰ penance by adding a video from a Southeastern Michigan ICU nurse (archive) describing conditions at her hospital and telling people to "stay the fuck home." Really hoping she and other HCWs can hang in there, because we all know what happens if they can't.

 
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I have to ask. What are the opinions that most or half of the population of some countries is already infected based on? I thought you'd be seeing many more deaths if that was the case. Many more. I tend to use South Korea as a reference when considering the coronavirus. They have a pretty good idea of the extent of the epidemic in their society because they're currently doing 15.000+ tests daily and getting roughly 100 detections out of that. If they had a significant, unknown and uncontrolled spread, it would show in this kind of screening. So their sample is 9300 cases and a total death rate of 1% or so. Translated to half of Great Britain or United States... well, let's not go there. What am I missing here?
South korea is our best case example of quarantine, but it isnt perfect. Let's say they have been testing 15,000 a day, every day, for the last 90 days. Everyone was only tested once, and the results were 100% accurate for the foreseeable future, E.G. nobody who tested negative in january would catch it in february/march, ece. That is 1.35 million people tested.

Out of a country of 51.47 million. That is 2.6% of the population tested. That leaves over 50 million people untested, and for all we know, mild cases could be spreading all throughout that 50 million population, and since these people are sick with what they think are mild colds, they dont go out, and therefore dont get tested unless symptoms get worse to the point they think something else is wrong.

The US, during the H1N1 outbreak, confirmed 57 million infections, and tested well north of half of the entire fucking country. S korea is nowhere near that level of testing. So even though South korea is the best in terms of testing per capita, even its testing is far too low to catch all the low level cases.
 
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