You're also making assumptions without evidence about the number of mild/asymptomatic cases. All those figures are spun out of very limited data. I mean they're the best guess we've got, but still. Likewise for the evolutionary pressures towards more virulent but less damaging strains. This is generally true, but the timescales are quite long, and our weird modern interconnected world and medical treatment may change things.
The evidence of virus strains weakening over time is right in front of you. H1N1 killed 60K in America alone in 2009/10, in 2019/20 it has killed less then 1/10th of that. Total sickened by the flu this year is confirmed around 13 million, compared to 57 MILLION in 2009. Not to hard to extrapolate from those numbers really.
My assumptions about the number of mild cases come from three things:
1.) we know this disease is more infectious then H1N1 was, as well as other flus and colds
2.)We know testing is wildly underreporting numbers, because testing is so limited. Even serious cases in hospitals are a total crap shoot on whether you can get tested. 2 of the local cases for confirmed corona? They came back march 13th, just got tested two days ago. They were sick the whole time, sick on the way back from italy. They only got tested two days ago. How many other cases are like theirs, sick but not bad enough to require hospitalization so they never get tested?
3.) This bit you quote right here:
But:
- The leaders of communist China , who don't give fuck about people, do care a lot about money , voluntarily trashed their economy over this.
- The leaders of the West, who are entirely beholden to big businesses and who worship the economy voluntarily trashed their economies over this.
- It's safe to assume that those two groups between them have better info and analysts than we do here.
The state of Ohio believed there were over 100K coronavirus cases in the state by the 16th. Two weeks ago. Now, how many are in hospital? How many have been caught? 403 and 1653, respectively. My "assumption" you so readily hand-wave is partially based on the very source you seem to think knows more then the rest of us and has already stated total case numbers are VASTLY underreported. So thanks for agreeing with me, in some bizzare backhanded way.
And, really? Do you REALLY think the government of the western world, who cant get a simple aid bill passed without sperging about racism and privileged and owning trump every 10 seconds could keep such information under wraps this long? REALLY? The government doesnt have some super secret special test that gives them true numbers, the number of tests being performed are extremely limited, and what info they are working with, like reduced emissions and confirmed cases, we are seeing too. I'm sure theyve heard some more coming out of china, but the realistic and simplest answer is that they are shutting things down because they have NO FUCKING CLUE what is going on.
So,a gain, we know how diseases less infectious then corona spread, including SARS and previous corona-viruses, so we can extrapolate from that how many are truly infected with this disease. The only reason to believe the numbers are not wide spread is to honestly trust testing numbers that much, which given how limited testing is, only the truly retarded would do.
About the mustard gas mutating the Spanish Flu. What? Have you got a source for this, preferably not a website that would make Alex Jones raise an eyebrow? Mustard Gas + virus = Mustard gas as far as I know.
I think the synergy with WW1 was a) Huge numbers of weakened injured people from living in a cold wet muddy hole eating rats for 4 years . b) large movement of people around the world and other ecosystem disruption.
The war definitely spread the disease, but war movements and weak people do not create a hyperactive killing virus. If that were true war would have wiped out humans long ago. So, why was spanish flu so deadly? Killing your hosts so effectively, especially the young, is a BAD thing for virii.
Well, Mustard gas doesnt kill viruses, so mustard gas+virus=mustard gas+virus. What mustard gas DOES do is cause rampant mutations int he upper respiratory tract. The same place spanish flu attacks so harshly. So mustard gas causes cancerous mutations, bombards cells with mutagens, virus then proceeded to infect said area and get contaminated with heavily mutated DNA, mix with large numbers of people in a cramped area allowing more violent disease to find many hosts to travel home with, and presto, you get spanish flu, a virus so deadly it wiped itself out by accident.
It has not been proven, mostly because you would need to willingly submit humans to those same trails again to prove it, but it is a theory that has been kept alive ever since it was confirmed Spanish flu was H1N1, and not some other long lost strain. There are not many things that make virus hyper-lethal, mutagens are one of them, and the battlefields of WW1 were full of them.
Sorry, one more thing I just want to mention. The flu bros like to point out how the numbers of dead are still negligable compared to Cancer, Heart disease, violent death. In the US and UK that's still true. But Italy and Spain, the WuFLu deaths are affecting their overall death rates, they're not all replacement deaths now.
Italy:
Population 60,000,000
Normal Death rate 1670/day
Current Corona rate 750/day conservative estimate.
This has pushed the whole's country's rate up by 20%, even though most of the Corona deaths are in Lombardy.
We're all doomed /Private Frazer
Still not the end of the world. We are not doomed. The extra deaths from spanish flu, swine flu, and smallpox did not doom society, the extra deaths from coofingAIDS will not either.
- until we know more about this thing in the upcoming month or two and how well 1st countries and some 3rd world countries (IE: UK, France, Sweden) can handle it.
