Wuhan Coronavirus - COVID-19 Analysis & Summary - This is not just fucking pneumonia. It is everything but the kitchen sink. Lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, brain, blood vessels, testes. It affects them all.

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Drain Todger said:
Oh no, this is much better.

1. The drama keeps the thread bumped and the info on the virus clearly visible.
2. I don't actually give a fuck about being doxxed. Imagine being afraid of a pair of calipers.

Calipers.jpg


A pair of fucking calipers.
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oh hey look, i found my new avatar for when the site gets fixed.
 
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Adamska said:
Okay doomer.
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There was a study from Imperial College London that estimated 2.2 million Americans would die if we did nothing.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html
(Archive Link)

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.
This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.
That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.
Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
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Tons of articles were published stating that Neil Ferguson "walked back his predictions" when he published another figure that projected 20,000 dead in the UK instead of 500,000.

The thing is, he didn't.

www.nationalreview.com

No, a COVID Scientist Didn’t Walk Back His Prediction | National Review

From the beginning he has said that lockdowns work.
www.nationalreview.com www.nationalreview.com
(Archive Link)

So, which is it? Is Professor Neil Ferguson right, or is he just another doomer, too?
 
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Dude can you fucking stop? You're going to be the next Ashley Lynne Coulter.

Your incessant sperging out about Corona is getting rather stale at this point. Admitting to the mlp shit just makes it much worse for you since we can add that to the list of canon fodder.

Possibility your dad is a brony is the icing on the cake.

I feel like you think you are so much smarter than you actually are. Why continue this fight?
 
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jellycar said:
Dude can you fucking stop? You're going to be the next Ashley Lynne Coulter.

Your incessant sperging out about Corona is getting rather stale at this point. Admitting to the mlp shit just makes it much worse for you since we can add that to the list of canon fodder.

Possibility your dad is a brony is the icing on the cake.

I feel like you think you are so much smarter than you actually are. Why continue this fight?
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As far back as early February, I recognized that my friends, family, and coworkers’ lives were all in danger with something like this going around. I had an overpowering urge to try and protect them by any means necessary, and I felt that the only way I could do that was by gathering intel on this virus.

When I started digging into the pathology of SARS and COVID-19, I quickly realized that these betacoronaviruses were far more than any mere respiratory disease. They had consequences for several vital organs of the body.


I kept looking over the published guidelines on this disease, and I recognized that the official stance was that COVID-19 was merely a form of pneumonia, without any mention of the cardiac, renal, hepatic, and neurological complications.

At that point, I also realized that if our coroners went rooting around in dead COVID-19 victims’ chests and gathered only their lung tissue, they would miss like 80% of the actual anatomy of the disease. Not to mention, the official response was way, way too slow. I realized that any response that would occur would be reactive rather than proactive. As in, it would only occur when we were already in crisis mode, which, for some parts of America, is right now.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins map, the plot shows that it isn’t even slowing down. 850k cases. It has doubled since about 8 days ago. The doubling rate in the US is about 5 days. In about 20 to 30 days, there will be 2.8 million cases and about 500,000 deaths in the US alone if nothing is done, if we assume a CFR of 20%, which is the actual figure for SARS-like viruses when you wait long enough and people actually start dying.

13-A71-D06-B8-AD-4-DA9-B563-00853-D97-FC08.jpg


EACF1023-EE02-4-F67-88-FF-782-E0-B93-A960.jpg

Of the closed cases, 19% are dead, and that’s if you include China’s bullshit figures. If you cut out China’s bullshit data, it’s actually closer to a 27.7% CFR globally for the closed cases, like MERS. This is why you can’t calculate CFRs by dividing all infections by all deaths. Most of those who have been infected have neither died nor survived yet. They’re still in hospital beds, their lungs bubbling and crackling as they struggle to breathe.

40,000 to 50,000 people or more died in Wuhan and the CCP covered it all up.

The math behind this is really, really simple. I’m surprised nobody’s gotten it yet, but in case you haven’t, let me put it this way:

We are through the fucking looking glass.

teriyakiburns said:
Why the fuck do you need seven radios?
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Simple. The fancy Yaesu for me, two Baofengs for my parents, and four more to distribute to other survivors if necessary.
 
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Venomine said:
im not reading it but at this point im pretty certain you're repeating yourself.
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We don't have to do anything. Just grab popcorn, sit back, and watch.

Sometime this month or the next, the Army and Marines will be used to enforce quarantines.

There are 15,000 National Guardsmen currently deployed across the country to manage resources and enforce curfews. In very short order, this number will become totally insufficient.

mwi.usma.edu

The Military and the Pandemic: An Explainer of the National Guard’s Role in the COVID-19 Response - Modern War Institute

National Guard units are now involved in the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in every jurisdiction that has them—all fifty states, Washington, DC, and three US territories. In a growing number of these, these forces have transitioned to a Title 32 status to continue to provide support to their...
mwi.usma.edu mwi.usma.edu
(Archive Link)

At the time of this writing, there are approximately 15,000 National Guard troops deployed in all fifty states, Puerto Rico, Guam, the US Virgin Islands, and Washington, DC, in response to the COVID-19 crisis. These units are all under the command and control of their individual states. Those numbers are likely to increase as states become more reliant on National Guard assets to meet a variety of needs. It is highly unlikely that a state would activate their National Guard to enforce a mandatory quarantine. With food and basic needs supply chains still functioning, that scenario just doesn’t make sense for this type of response. And it’s almost impossible under the Posse Comitatus Act for the federal government to do so, making that scenario even more unlikely.
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About 99% of happenings are bullshit. I think last year, wasn't 4chan going on about something like, the Space Needle was gonna get blown up on November 3rd? Yeah, that was obvious bullshit.

However, when I saw the CCP welding people up inside their own apartments in Wuhan, the PLA busting up mahjong tables, and people getting stabbed in the grocery store over the last bottle of hand sanitizer, I knew that this one was a little bit different.


Dow Jones down from 29k to 18.5k? Everyone losing their minds and buying up all the toilet paper? People wandering the streets in T-rex costumes? Yeah, this is definitely an actual happening.
 
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Venomine said:
im not reading it but at this point im pretty certain you're repeating yourself.
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I wonder if his his my little pony fanfictions are as creative as his wuflu fanfictions?
Drain Todger said:
When I started digging into the pathology of SARS and COVID-19, I quickly realized that these betacoronaviruses were far more than any mere respiratory disease. They had consequences for several vital organs of the body.
Click to expand...
Like every other fucking virus on the planet.

You're blaming your anxiety for this autistic obsession with proving that corona has potentially horrible symptoms, but what you're actually doing is creating anxiety for yourself over things you can't control. Calm down. Go have a wank and a shower, and get off the fucking internet.
 
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Drain Todger said:
If you look at the Johns Hopkins map, the plot shows that it isn’t even slowing down. 850k cases. It has doubled since about 8 days ago. The doubling rate in the US is about 5 days. In about 20 to 30 days, there will be 2.8 million cases and about 500,000 deaths in the US alone if nothing is done, if we assume a CFR of 20%, which is the actual figure for SARS-like viruses when you wait long enough and people actually start dying.
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Lies, the brilliant statisticians and epidemiologists on the internet told me it would be over 9 billion cases in a month at this rate of growth. What are you trying to cover up CCP shill?
 
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