Hello there comrade, how are the breadlines? Besides that though, our medical system is worse than Italy in regards that we have 1.5 to 2 less beds per person. Though our population density outside of the metropolitan centres in most parts of Ontario and Quebec are quite reasonable, so the virus isn't going to wipe most places out that you drive by on the 401. The populations with the most people are going to be obviously the most heavily infected, and with some of our findings of the aerosol droplets travelling 2-3 times father than typically assumed, if this is true then we are in a problem. Though SARS works in that very similar way, what made SARS different was the lethality was higher, because the lag time wasn't as long, but also it generally killed people a little quicker.
This disease from what I am finding out is a lot different than has been thought in China (SURPRISE SURPRISE), and I think we are beginning to get a better idea as the days to go on how to combat this nasty thing. Trudeau and the idiot federal ministers are clueless, and had no real plan to begin with. Though luckily one thing that was taken seriously politics aside was the important nature of lock down, and testing earlier on. Problem though is that the latency in the test times is beginning to stifle our progress, also every municipality addresses their city different. The ministers on a provincial level though beyond the swamp at the Federal level are doing a fairly decent job in addressing the issue.
Again the numbers look scary, but again that is if we didn't take lock down seriously for over the course of 18 months to 2 years. We already have been hit by a couple of waves and the numbers in the next month are going to parallel the do nothing strategy. By June we will have a better picture if lock-down had any effect or not. If it does, it'll probably continue on a massive scale until October, and by then most of the country starts getting cold again, and people aren't going out too much in the winter. Plus our health minister is a anthropologist not a real doctor, she was quoting WHO numbers and bad data from the start. R0 is a solid 2.3 ; mortality rate in my guess is 0.6 +/- 0.1 percent ideally, but in communities that are dense, stacked on top of each other, sick, lack of medical resources, we are looking at 1.2-2.0 percent. That doubling/tripling has to account for scaling up, and if the medical system collapses then we are looking at 10%,12% numbers like Italy in certain places. Again this is over a 2 year period, with good management, social distancing, and contact tracing. Then as well once treatments start rolling out as they begin to understand the disease, we'll see VERY significant drops from my ideal very optimistic 0.6 +/- 0.1 percent number .
