Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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I wish we had a facepalm rating, I’ve literally sat in my wee corner of the NHS, cleaned till I could clean no more, check the resuscitation trolley that I can memorise expiry dates, and read every thing about that bitch, corona chan. But I’m so glad I haven’t resorted to prancing about in ppe or my colleagues coz of morale, lol.

Yeah, it's really unprofessional.
 
So far she's not very sick but Typhoid Cunty and her ilk catch it and then spread it to others who may not be as lucky. Keep crying about mask rape.
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BITTEN BY BUG Leader of anti-coronavirus lockdown group that organized protests tests positive for COVID-19 (Archive)
Indiana got a spike of cases, over 900 in one day but more than half came from one county sourced around a Tyson processing plant.


Holy shit these large scale meat processing places are pretty terrible to work for. I worked with people who worked at or lived in areas that majority of the employment came from Smithfield and Tyson. They told me some lousy things like threatening to fire if they took off for a parent's funeral or purposely laying off employees and have them rehire with lower wages.

Scarier part is that US food supply rely heavily on these operations and no one can fathom what will happen to food supply in the coming future.
Cass County accounts for nearly half of new coronavirus cases in Indiana Monday (Archive)
UK's starting to look for a plan to wind down the lock down (Archive)
Try to follow the logic with me:

1) The widely accepted number is that 50% of people are asymptomatic. I am not referring to antibody tests. This has been shown in jurisdictions where a large sample of the public have been tested such as Iceland and parts of Italy. Here's a quote from an article about the USS Roosevelt:



These test only show people currently infected with the virus. They do not show people whose system have already fought it off which would be revealed by antibody testing. AFAIK there is still not a 100% foolproof antibody test.

2) We know that unhealthy and older people tend to be hit harder by the virus. So if 50% of the entire population is asymptomatic, that likely means that less than 50% of older people and people with underlying health issues are asymptomatic and more than 50% of young healthy people are asymptomatic. For example, assuming a population with an equal number of older/unhealthy people and healthy young people, the rate of asymptotic infection in older/unhealthy people could be 40% while the rate in younger people could be 60% to arrive at an average of 50%.

3) So we know, based on the 50% number, it is likely that more than half of young healthy people are asymptomatic. Most jurisdictions are only testing people who show symptoms, so these asymptotic people are not counted in the numbers of confirmed cases.

4) Look at these number from April 14th in New York. At that point 309 people between 18 and 44 had died. Of that 309, only 25 or 8% were confirmed not to have any underlying health issues. 79% had underlying health issues such as hypertension or diabetes and 13% were unknown.

5) Further down the page you can see that adults under 50 have a roughly 0.2%-0.4% rate of fatality. This number is obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. So remember that at least 50% of people who are asymptomatic we talked about earlier? They wouldn't have been tested a thus would not have been counted in these numbers. So right away you can pretty well cut this number in half.

6) This fatality rate also includes the 79% of deaths who we know for sure had underlying health issues like hypertension or diabetes. I don't care to do the math to work out what that actually brings the odds of death to if you are young and healthy, but it's pretty obviously below 0.1%.

7) If you're under 50 and you are afraid of a < 0.1% fatality rate you are an exceptional individual. Your chances of developing colon cancer under 50 are several times higher. There is a 2% chance you have an unruptured brain aneurysm right now.


This information is from reputable sources, not fringe conspiracy sites. I'm just taking objective numbers I can find and drawing logical conclusions. Some cum gargling talking head on CNN is not doing that. They are cherry picking stories that are statistical anomalies to make it seem like more young people are getting sick, because if you are scared you watch the news more. There is a conflict of interest at play that is going to lead them to be biased toward reporting scary news. It's the same part of your brain that serialized TV dramas that always end in a cliffhanger exploit. There's this tension created and you want to see what's going to happen.

I'm not saying it's not a problem. It's very contagious and a sizable percentage of people who are old and have health issues end up in ICU and dying, overwhelming ICU resources. However, if you are under 50 and healthy your chances of dying from the virus are several times lower than your chances of dying for a myriad of other things that can kill you that you don't bother thinking about because they're not in the news.

Now the issue in my mind, do you think it's more realistic to lockdown the entirety of society, including the group that has a statistically insignificant chance of dying, long-term, or more realistic to just pay people who are in high risk groups such as the elderly and people with preexisting health issues to stay home until a vaccine or some kind of herd immunity can be achieved?
1. Here's a quote from an article about the USS Roosevelt: (Archive)
2.Your chances of developing colon cancer under 50 are several times higher (Archive)
All of that was the same here in Australia.

Our difference is elective surgery is now to resume (surgeons now less bored) and our PPE situation is well sorted (better stockpile according to Prime Minister ScoMo).

Just one note: When they cancelled "elective" stuff, the important shit still got done. So if your prostate cancer was aggressive, you're still getting that surgery. Things that could wait, were expected to wait. Doctors always get cagey about this stuff because waiting can/does cause issues. But this waiting stuff can occur randomly due to hospital demand anyway...not just because of WuFlu.

For those of you who aren't aware, elective surgery just means booked/planned. It doesn't necessarily indicate severity. An aneurysm repair can be both elective or emergency depending on the circumstance. A broken finger requiring K-wire is the same. There's a whole lot of factors involved that I can't be fucked explaining.

Since elective surgery is back on, the private hospitals have said "GTFO" to the public patients being sent there as a "minimising risk" strategy.

We had issues of sanitiser theft but donning/doffing stayed the same with no reports of people having to wear the same gear more than once. (And I get reports from all over Australia - majority of medical staff have worked at multiple hospitals and maintain contact with others at different locations). So I'm inclined to believe our government about the PPE supply.


Also my understanding through conversations I've had (but not confirmed by any agency or national body) is that the Aus lockdown was to prepare medical sites in preparation for a long slog. Essentially: boost medical capacity, slowly ease restrictions, case numbers will rise but less deaths due to increased medical capacity, expect these makeshift hospitals to be around for a while solely dealing with China virus patients. I guess we wait and see if that claim holds any water.

In the meantime, I really hope the number of pollution goblins and Pajeets disappears from this country.

China threatened Australia by saying they won't send their kids to our Universities anymore

...and nothing of value was lost.
China threatened Australia by saying they won't send their kids to our Universities anymore (Archive)
I'd probably be out and about but this is has stopped me from using the subway.
NYC is at San Francisco levels now, poo map when?
1. NYC subway operator confronted by ‘defecating’ straphanger on 2 train (Archive)
2. Man shot at point blank range in NYC subway car (
Archive)
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Remember, archive everything !
 
Honestly that's another mess we're gonna see now. Wuhan has lost over 3/4s of their population. And that's not only because of the virus, but because as soon as the frontiers oppened everyone fucking ran for it and they did not look back. I believe by the end of the quarantine NY will be in the same situation, with pretty much everyone that can afford to go gone for good.

So the immediate question is: what then? Megacities are blistering effiges to human arrogance. They are incredibly hard to maintain and logistically nightmarish. It takes a lot of cash to keep that shit working. With the city turned into a ghost town filled with lumbering blocks of empty halls. What then? The economic crisis will hurt most megacities greatly. I believe Madrid will take it because in the end whenever Madrid needs pushing up Spain is there, no matter how much it hurts us or how much we have a grudge to hold after the PPE shit got real. They'll have food and maintenance personnel, that's for sure. So they'll be recovering their business but by bit, like they always do. But I don't believe america has the same culture, at all, NY has tested its luck repeatedly and pissed off every state, and those states all are in a situation where they can build their industry and economy centers or expand them as needed. They don't really need NYC, it's just convenient and profitable, but as Roger pointed out even then NYC has in the past pulled dirty tricks to take money on top of that. And with the elections incoming NY is likely to find itself surrounded with red borders who have no political reason to stand by it. So... what then?

As I see it. It's likely this just keeps going down. I talked about how if NY looses its supply chain it'll turn into an apocalyptic scenario. And I believe while Corona is the catalist, the massed migration IS that chain disruption. We might see it turned into the biggest abandoned megacity in the world in a few months. Which means the only people left will be the illegals/criminals/homeless squating in its ruins, workers which will have to accept jobs that are thoroughly abusive because nothing else is available, and whatever rich assholes living on manhattan make a living out of exploiting them.

This can quickly turn into a cyberpunk dystopia if Trump doesn't pull what might be the biggest logistical effort in the history of the USA just to rebuild this shit. It can turn real ugly and real scary real fast. And cuomo seems more than happy to push shit that way whenever he gets the chance.

No, not going to happen. Let's face it. Before all this ChiCom Flu started, very few people even knew Wuhan existed. And nobody should give a flying fuck if they ever hear of the place again.

New York City is one of the capitals of the world. While it isn't the USA's official capital, when you consider NYC's role here and worldwide it is hard not to see it as a world capital.

What's in NYC? More like what isn't. Wall Street, major banks, major financial institutions, major company headquarters, world-class museums aplenty, world-class medical facilities, world-class shopping aplenty. Huge media center, print and electronic. The UN (gag) is here. No heavy industry that I know of, but am sure you have a shitload of small companies in the city. NYC is also a huge transport hub - road, rail, air, sea.

What will happen in NYC is what happened after 9-11. NYC will bury their dead and the city will come back to life. Nothing to rebuild, except for the people's trust in government and law enforcement.

Let's dispense with taking counsel of our fears, folks. Been plenty of world-class cities that have been wrecked (Berlin, Tokyo), severely damaged (London) through bombing. San Francisco got their dick knocked into the dirt by earthquakes/fire twice last century (1906 and 1989). Remember 1989 quite well. Los Angeles has been through widespread rioting on more than one occasion during the past sixty years, not to mention their own earthquake. Yet every one of these cities has rebuilt and come back.

A modern city is more resilient than many think. For example, the Germans blitzed London during WWII. Did a lot of damage, killed a lot of people. Yet London just kept calm and kept at it. We and the British bombed Berlin, and many other German cities, to shit during World War II. Yet the only way these cities gave up was when we and the Soviets took them through ground forces action. The Germans smashed the living shit out of Stalingrad and many other Soviet cities. Damned near starved Leningrad to death. Yet it was the Germans who got their clocks cleaned at Stalingrad, and were eventually pushed out of every last Soviet city - and these cities were all rebuilt. Shit, we bombed P'yongyang, North Korea so much that the NKs used P'yongyang's downtown as an airstrip. Seoul got whacked and whopped. Yet these cities were rebuilt.

Cities, and the great cities at that, are more than buildings, roads, bridges, and physical landmarks. Cities are ideas and dreams. Look at Las Vegas, for example. It was little more than a hamlet before someone with a dream started developing it. Same thing with the other cities. Someone had a dream. Someone saw a need that having a settlement in that particular place would satisfy. Things grew and developed.

These major cities have stood the test of time. Barring a worldwide nuclear war, an attack by aliens from space, or the spread of some disease that kills within hours and is wildly contagious, as in the book Earth Abides, these cities will be there.

Step back, take a deep breath, put things in perspective.

What‘s the possibility of there being a “cry wolf” scenario regarding a second wave? I.E., a wave that‘s actually deadly and hits once quarantine ends but everyone tells the govt and the media to fuck off because they overhyped the initial wave?

Very high, from what I've been reading.

Mods - sorry for the double post but this one doesn't mesh with the previous post. Thanks for your patience and tolerance.


Just found this. Big Bill the Attorney General is telling his prosecutors to keep an eye out for civil rights violations during these house arrests. Outstanding. Hope to see a bunch of little tyrants indicted and tried. A lesson for others.



 
What‘s the possibility of there being a “cry wolf” scenario regarding a second wave? I.E., a wave that‘s actually deadly and hits once quarantine ends but everyone tells the govt and the media to fuck off because they overhyped the initial wave?
I'm pretty sure a few hundred pages back there was a theory floating around already about there being two strains of the virus, one which infects a lot of people and causes few problems, and one which does far more damage but spreads slower, kind of like H1N1 (or whatever it was).
 
Medcram video, in which Domane, a US project, does God tier medical tech - trying to do computational drug discovery. They've got a trial going too - results in a couple of weeks. This sort of thing is why aliens might well decide we're worth talking to after all. We're not mere crayon chompers, we're a fucking contender as a species.

https://archive.vn/wip/5iEpX



More info on DOMANE

https://archive.vn/6vfzk

In reviewing 6212 COVID-19 patient records, the doctors noticed that many survivors had been suffering from chronic heartburn and were on famotidine rather than more-expensive omeprazole (Prilosec), the medicine of choice both in the United States and among wealthier Chinese. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients on famotidine appeared to be dying at a rate of about 14% compared with 27% for those not on the drug, although the analysis was crude and the result was not statistically significant.

But that was enough for Callahan to pursue the issue back home. After returning from Wuhan, he briefed Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the Department of Health and Human Services, then checked in with Robert Malone, chief medical officer of Florida-based Alchem Laboratories, a contract manufacturing organization. Malone is part of a classified project called DOMANE that uses computer simulations, artificial intelligence, and other methods to rapidly identify U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs and other safe compounds that can be repurposed against threats such as new viruses.

Malone had his eyes on a viral enzyme called the papainlike protease, which helps the pathogen replicate. To see whether famotidine binds to the protein, he would ordinarily need the enzyme’s 3D structure, but that would not be available for months. So Malone recruited computational chemist Joshua Pottel, president of Montreal-based Molecular Forecaster, to predict it from two crystal structures of the protease from the 2003 SARS coronavirus, combined with the new coronavirus’ RNA sequence.

It was hardly plug-and-play. Among other things, they compared the gene sequences of the new and old proteases to rule out crucial differences in structure. Pottel then tested how 2600 different compounds interact with the new protease. The modeling yielded several dozen promising hits that pharmaceutical chemists and other experts narrowed to three. Famotidine was one. (The compound has not popped up in in vitro screens of existing drug libraries for antiviral activity, however.)

With both the tantalizing Chinese data and the modeling pointing toward famotidine, a low-cost, generally safe drug, Callahan contacted Tracey about running a double-blind randomized study. COVID-19 patients with decreased kidney function would be excluded because high doses of famotidine can cause heart problems in them.

After getting FDA approval, Northwell used its own funds to launch the effort. Just getting half of the needed famotidine in sterile vials took weeks, because the injectable version is not widely used. On 14 April, the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), which operates under Kadlec, gave Alchem a $20.7 million contract for the trial, most of which paid Northwell’s costs.

The study’s draft protocol was aimed only at evaluating famotidine’s efficacy, but Trump’s “game-changer” antimalarial drug was rapidly becoming the standard of care for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. That meant investigators would only be able to recruit enough subjects for a trial that tested a combination of famotidine and hydroxychloroquine. Those patients would be compared with a hydroxychloroquine-only arm and a historic control arm made up of hundreds of patients treated earlier in the outbreak. “Is it good science? No,” Tracey says. “It’s the real world.”

This is some seriously impressive shit. Note that DOMANE is not a drug company, it's a classified US project to do computational drug discovery - they scan a list of FDA approved drugs to see if they can be used against a novel threat.
 
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What will happen in NYC is what happened after 9-11. NYC will bury their dead and the city will come back to life. Nothing to rebuild, except for the people's trust in government and law enforcement.

This. NYC, as a world capital and finance hub, will go on. What will change is its demographics, and critically, its suburbs.

I think, if anything, the WuFlu will hasten the inevitable emptying and re-populating of New York's outer boroughs, upstate, and Long Island, where the normies live(d). You just can't hack it. The taxes, COL, mortgages, insane school fees, abyssmal LIRR/MetroNorth fees and service... they flee South, where you can buy a tiny house for less than 600K+.

The uber wealthy and Medicaid poor will remain; the former, in Manhattan and posher parts of LI/upstate, and the latter in their PJs throughout the boroughs. The middle class, as we know it, will be long gone, and the only "average" people in Noo Yawk will be immigrants, who live in Queens or Brooklyn or Nassau for less than a generation. Then, Manu and Radha move to Georgia, just like Donna and Saul and Mrs. Fredo Leone did years before.

Oh, and the hipsters. They'll stay in their hovels, so long as Mommy's money holds out. If/when they ever mature enough to feel shame or want kids, the next generation of heavily indebted college ~artists will inherit the hive.

tl;dr Noo Yawk will persist, but radically changed.
 
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One of the reasons Cuomo may be freaking out about McConnell’s threats to allow states to declare bankruptcy is that NYC nearing bankruptcy declaration in the ’70s is what finally set the city into its last freefall before Koch was elected and fixed the budget. What’s interesting is that what initially set off the city’s massive borrowing was middle class taxpayers fleeing and the tax base shrinking dramatically. We could see some parts of the city returning to something like this while Manhattan and the financial districts remain standing.

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You messed up your quote there fyi.

And "The information" on the pandemic is hard to follow because the people reporting on it are worthless fucking morons, you know what makes me think that this is completely overblown?

Half of the homeless in a Homeless Shelter testing positive despite showing no symptoms.
California apparently being so bad at testing that they might have 50 times the amount of cases they have reported.

The reason I don't think this is all that dangerous is because if it is as virulent as it seems to be based of all of the evidence then the vast vast majority of the population has already been exposed and was before we even started the lock downs, that and the fact that every death count is inflated, PA Removed 200 Deaths and blamed the false deaths on a "computer glitch"

If you wanna believe these idiots doing the reporting that we are all gonna die, then lock yourself in your house and don't come out for a month, but let those of us who don't suck off the knob of pop-science live our lives.
 
I don't get how people can see the "Lockdown Protestor Gets Coronavirus!" stories as some sort of gotcha. The whole premise of the protesting is that getting the virus isn't a huge deal and the measures being taken to prevent it are unreasonable. It's being treated as some sort of poetic justice when the truth is that there's a 99.5% chance that they'll be perfectly fine, just like most other people who get the disease.

Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
 
I don't get how people can see the "Lockdown Protestor Gets Coronavirus!" stories as some sort of gotcha. The whole premise of the protesting is that getting the virus isn't a huge deal and the measures being taken to prevent it are unreasonable. It's being treated as some sort of poetic justice when the truth is that there's a 99.5% chance that they'll be perfectly fine, just like most other people who get the disease.

Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
That's because a lot of the criticism against the protesters totally misrepresents their argument. They assume people who want things opened up or feel like their constitutional rights are being violated must be in denial that the virus exists at all, therefore it's poetic justice that they catch it.

With some of these people, any failure to have the same level of fear about it as them sets them off. Even pro-lockdown people who say things like "well, I'm not so much worried for myself, but I'm worried about my elderly loved ones" will have people jump down their throats because "IT KILLS EVERYONE, EVEN YOUNG PEOPLE CAN DIE!"

If you're not panicked in your bunker than you must not believe it even exists.
 
Half of the homeless in a Homeless Shelter testing positive despite showing no symptoms.
California apparently being so bad at testing that they might have 50 times the amount of cases they have reported.
Only two people out of the 458 homeless at the San Diego Convention Center tested positive last week. No staff infected.
 
Honestly that's another mess we're gonna see now. Wuhan has lost over 3/4s of their population. And that's not only because of the virus, but because as soon as the frontiers oppened everyone fucking ran for it and they did not look back. I believe by the end of the quarantine NY will be in the same situation, with pretty much everyone that can afford to go gone for good.

So the immediate question is: what then? Megacities are blistering effiges to human arrogance. They are incredibly hard to maintain and logistically nightmarish. It takes a lot of cash to keep that shit working. With the city turned into a ghost town filled with lumbering blocks of empty halls. What then? The economic crisis will hurt most megacities greatly. I believe Madrid will take it because in the end whenever Madrid needs pushing up Spain is there, no matter how much it hurts us or how much we have a grudge to hold after the PPE shit got real. They'll have food and maintenance personnel, that's for sure. So they'll be recovering their business but by bit, like they always do. But I don't believe america has the same culture, at all, NY has tested its luck repeatedly and pissed off every state, and those states all are in a situation where they can build their industry and economy centers or expand them as needed. They don't really need NYC, it's just convenient and profitable, but as Roger pointed out even then NYC has in the past pulled dirty tricks to take money on top of that. And with the elections incoming NY is likely to find itself surrounded with red borders who have no political reason to stand by it. So... what then?

As I see it. It's likely this just keeps going down. I talked about how if NY looses its supply chain it'll turn into an apocalyptic scenario. And I believe while Corona is the catalist, the massed migration IS that chain disruption. We might see it turned into the biggest abandoned megacity in the world in a few months. Which means the only people left will be the illegals/criminals/homeless squating in its ruins, workers which will have to accept jobs that are thoroughly abusive because nothing else is available, and whatever rich assholes living on manhattan make a living out of exploiting them.

This can quickly turn into a cyberpunk dystopia if Trump doesn't pull what might be the biggest logistical effort in the history of the USA just to rebuild this shit. It can turn real ugly and real scary real fast. And cuomo seems more than happy to push shit that way whenever he gets the chance.

If you want to see what NYC will look like, look at Detroit from post 2008 crash. Acres of abandoned properties. The only people left those too poor and dependent on government to move. City services failing. Or just look back in history to NYC 1973-76’ish (The classic headline, “Ford to NYC, Drop Dead!” ). And yeah in generations long past NYC was viewed as the shining centerpiece of the United States. But now? “Other States to NYC. Drop Dead for Realz!”

Even other New Yorkers hate NYC. As an example I just saw stats for Cortland County NY. It’s an upstate NY County that has a piece of the vertical University belt that runs North to South from SUNY Binghamton through SUNY Cartland, Ithaca, Cornel Syracuse up to Oswego. A fairly large rust belt college town. They’ve had 132 confirmed cases total. 31 that required hospitalization. Of those 30 have recovered and been discharged. One is in hospital but recovering. No deaths. No new cases in 2 weeks. They are a 4 hour drive from NYC. Why are they being restricted to the same lockdowns as NYC? Why are they not even allowed to consider the orders or petition for relief until May 15th?
 
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Just learned that as of 12:01 a.m. Thursday, the local "health director" has decreed that all us inmates will need to wear masks when out in public. Despicable. In most places "they" are at least starting to try to lift these restrictions, but not here. Guess this guy, whose compensation is about $345K/year, gets paid by how many people he pisses off. Fuck him, fully.

The state's Fuhrer Newsom has announced his "phased reopening plan". Fuck him, as well, fully. Useless sack of shit.




Newsom said nothing about reopening hotels and restaurants. These are major employers in CA. Not all these employees get unemployment.

Cannot imagine the hardships innocent people will have to suffer if this "plan" goes through.

Beyond disgusting. Believe when this is over more people than ever will leave CA.
 
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