Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Okay, that's fair. I was referring to the studies from the UK (0.66%), Germany (0.37%) and California (0.17% & 0.25%) which tried to estimate/test for asymptomic/weak-symptomatic/undiagnosed carriers.

The issue with excess deaths is we don't know what percentage of the total deaths are excess deaths, other than that our lying-ass bureaucrats are telling lying-ass hospital administration to count shit as COVID deaths that arent COVID.
How many are fake deaths? The world may never know.
I just meant the total death figures, disregarding any assigned cause of death compared to the expected for that time of year. I am (optimisitically?) assuming that in the west we still get accurate total death registration data. (Still hoping for foreign kiwi to post the equivalent from their country) . In the flu season a few years ago we had 15000 total deaths per week instead of 10000.

I've just checked the ONS , and the data for week ending 17th April is out. Whoops , it turns out I might be talking shite.
ONS . archive . Spreadsheet attached.
deaths1704.PNG


Weekly Deaths 22,251 , compared to the usual 10,500 .
But only 8,758 mention Covid.
22000 weekly total is probably the worst since the seventies?

One thing that confuses this point is that this method will not show which deaths were caused by the lockdown. I'm going with more than a few. Suicides & domestic murders will make the news, but they won't budge the graph. But degradation in support services for vunerable people will put some of those in the ground. Not getting the help you need, so you either die of diabetus or have an amusing accident with a step ladder.
 

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I can't decide what's the most stupid. Internet leftists wanting to use the quarantine to accelerate a economic collapse. Or thinking they're going to win the ensuing conflict because a dozen of them wet their pants in Syria.

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Oh this is just precious...the leftists never step out of their power fantasies do they? Absolutely zero of the leftists I know own a gun. For all their talk about the revolution, none of them walk that talk. It’s interesting because you’d think if they studied left movements in the U.S., like the Black Panthers who stressed self-defense and gun ownership, they would at least own a little revolver or a shotgun or something, but no.

International news. Seems Texas is reopening. Go texas! Also. Fuck A3media and their TDS, god I hate those bastards.

A coworker said his Texas town opened patios at restaurants last weekend and most places had a 2-3 hour wait for a table. At least plenty of Texans aren’t living in fear!
 
Receiving free money for too long warps your understanding of money in ways that a normal working person really doesn't appreciate.

They lose all concept of Plan, Work, Save, Budget , Invest etc. When money arrives magically, not in response to any deliberate action then people develop habits of just pissing it away instantly, because the capricious Gods will likely take it from them anyway. It's not a racial thing, it's a long term poor welfare dependency thing.
Ask yourself, if crazy aliens rained down pallets of cash and lightning bolts of death on your home town, seemingly at random ; would you study? would you work? No, you'd live one day at a time partying and spending like a drunken sailor on shore leave.

Now, obviously we don''t live in quite this world, but there is a similar effect with bad welfare systems.

Enh. I tend to think most of Africa got a particularly raw deal, since year-round growing seasons are hell on a culture's Future Time Orientation. The good news is technology and global supply chains are going to wreck everyone's FTO in time so all races will be on the same level. We already have fairly well educated people thinking that groceries come from the store, and that we can get rid of all of the farms and replace them with hydroponic skyscrapers, (in spite of it costing vastly more resources than just growing shit in the ground would cost.) I hate to think that we need a pandemic to re-teach us all about how nature works, but...
 
Okay, did the usual first of the month business.

Went to credit union. Treated like a criminal. Needed some cash from the teller, including a certain number of $20 bills. Teller - "My machine doesn't have any 20's." The credit union opened up maybe fifteen minutes ago. What the fuck. Got other bills instead.

Went to post office. Very nice, didn't feel like a criminal.

Our county's "health director" has extended our house arrest until 31 May. He loosened a few minor restrictions. This turd simply doesn't give flying fuck one. Not fuck one.

Well, when state/county/city governments have to lay off large numbers of employees due to a shortage of tax revenue, hope that fuck gets sacked. Not likely. This will be a long-term problem, basically nationwide. People not working can't pay income taxes. People generally not buying as much - fewer sales taxes to collect. Not driving as much - less gas taxes available. People not staying in hotels - less occupancy tax. NFG. Public sector employees are normally better compensated for the same job than private sector, better benefits. Hey, now they can see what it's like missing paychecks and having to live on unemployment. Going to take a very long time, if ever, for post-ChiCom Flu tax revenues to return to previous levels.

Added: In at least one city, the mayor isn't even waiting for this thing to be over before trying to squeeze more tax money from the people. What a fuckwagon.


 
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It’s interesting because you’d think if they studied left movements in the U.S., like the Black Panthers who stressed self-defense and gun ownership, they would at least own a little revolver or a shotgun or something, but no.
Oh they have. It's where they get cute remarks like "you know if black people started buying guns the gun laws would change over night" to imply that gun owners are racist despite the fact that gun owners when asked aren't bothered by black Americans owning guns.
 
Michigan, USA

Our shut-down order remains in legal limbo.

The Republican-controlled legislature has refused to extend Governor Whitmer (D)'s emergency authority. Governor Whitmer insists her emergency orders are all still in effect (Rundown on the laws in question, follow-up). The legislature has passed a bill that would incorporate many of her orders into law, while not extending her emergency authority. She has so far neither signed nor vetoed this bill, but she previously said she will not sign any bill that limits her office's powers (archive). The Republican majority is not veto-proof.

Trump weighs in on Twitter, h/t @Arm Pit Cream
Donald Trump said:
The Governor of Michigan should give a little, and put out the fire. These are very good people, but they are angry. They want their lives back again, safely! See them, talk to them, make a deal.
Screenshot_20200501-094947_Twitter - Copy.png
Link, archive

No other major developments so far today.

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. Friday, May 1, Friday, May 15 May 1, I guess (archive) (executive order saved on KF) . The Republican-controlled legislature has refused to extend Governor Whitmer's emergency authority. Governor Whitmer insists her emergency orders are all still in effect (Rundown on the laws in question, follow-up). The legislature has passed a bill that would incorporate many of her orders into law, while not extending her emergency authority. She has previously said she will not sign any bill that limits her office's powers (archive)

OTHER SHUTDOWNS
Lawsuits against the shutdown order are multiplying (archive, archive). However, "all deadlines applicable to the commencement of all civil and probate actions and proceedings" are suspended until the end of the states of emergency and disaster. (archive). Major protest at the State Capitol April 15 (A&N thread). Minor protest outside Governor's Mansion April 23 (archive). Protest at the State Capitol April 30 (A&N Thread).
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) have closed all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work. This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which were also obliged to close. (archive) (archive) (archive). They are still making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and production of ventilators, etc. has begun (archive- GM's ventilators, April 17.) Ford is preparing to reopen (archive - April 26).

ECONOMY AND MISCELLANY
Over 1 million unemployment claims filed = 10% of the total population of the state, nearly 25% of the workforce (Archive - April 16).
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (website) (news article archive).
Car crashes are down, fatal car crashes are down, and overall death is actually down. (archive - April 12)

FREE STUFF!
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)

HEALTH CARE
Hydroxychloroquine banned by governor's order (archive). Nevermind LOL! Now she's asking the federal government for it and claiming the ban was a mistake in the first place. (archive). Detroit-area hospitals are testing the drug's effectiveness as a preventative on first responders and health-care workers (archive).
Elective surgeries are banned. This does not include abortions (thread).
Up-to-date count of available hospital beds, etc. in the State (the Detroit area is "Section 2, North and South.")(government website)
Detroit field hospital admits first 8 Corona patients. It will only be taking the less-serious cases. No one on ventilators.(archive - April 14)
Another field hospital in Detroit scaled back after drop in cases. Original plan was to open with 1,100 beds. Now they are only going to open with 250, planned to open April 20. (archive - April 11).
Our statistics are inaccurate, because deaths are being both overcounted and undercounted (archive).

LAW AND ORDER
All localities given more discretion to release prisoners early (archive). The State prison system is not currently releasing inmates early.
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive).
Detroit shootings up, but most other crime down (archive - April 30); Muskegon police report crime is up (archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $1500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive).
The police cannot, at present, pull drivers over simply for being out during the shutdown (archive). Local police in the rural north and in Detroit suburbs have alike stated they will not be enforcing parts of the order (archive).

OFFICIAL DEATH TOLL

The State of Michigan reviews deaths and adds overlooked cases to the official statistics three times a week. 40 deaths were added yesterday.
MDHHS said:
Regular reviews of death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems are conducted by MDHHS staff three times per week. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate the individual died, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website.

Detroit Metro (pop. 3,860,000 total; 1,796/sq. mi.; 694/sq km):*

30,016 confirmed / 3,121 dead
29,509 confirmed / 3,081 dead yesterday
(i.e. 40 new deaths, down 49 from previous day)
Normal Detroit Metro Death Rate: 104 per day.**

Other Michigan (6,120,000; 65/sq. mi.; 25/sq km):

12,340 confirmed / 745 dead
11,870 confirmed / 708 dead yesterday
(i.e. 37 new deaths, up 7 from previous day)
Normal not-Detroit Death Rate: 167 per day**

All Michigan (9,990,000; 103/sq. mi.; 40/sq km):

42,356 confirmed / 3,866 dead
41,379 confirmed / 3,789 dead yesterday
(i.e. 77 new deaths, down 42 from previous day, down 2 without the adjustment)
Normal Michigan Death Rate: 271 per day.**

Death toll doubled since: April 15.
We have been (were?) locked down since: March 24 (until April 30?),
Masks have been mandatory in stores since: April 27 (until April 30?).

Detroit Metro Daily Deaths Last Seven Days:
166*** / 22 / 60 / 128*** / 84 / 89*** / 40 = 589***

State Government site, daily - today's archive;
State Gov site, total, includes breakdowns by sex, age, race and ethnicity - today's archive.
*Here defined as the City of Detroit, and Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties, minus state prisoners, who are not counted towards any county's cases, but are kept in a category of their own.
** As of 2018.
*** 58, 40, and 40 statewide deaths, respectively, were added on these days upon State review. Presumably most were in Detroit, but I don't know exactly how many.

Also one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
 
I am glad for the tests, though honestly they shouldn't have been politicized to begin with. But I am also honestly really concerned at that deathtoll. You've passed spain like a fucking racecar and seem to have no breaks, being back at 700 a day. I mean holy hell over here hospital's on alert because we had a spike... from the 290s back to the 320s. What the fuck even is going on with those numbers? Something's extremely fucky with that plateau, it's genuinely worrying me. I mean. Unlike what some think pandemics don't just perfectly fit the bell curve, specially with lockdowns, but it should've stayed lowered. At least after counting the spike from the residences anyway.

This is where stats can look scarier than they are.

You have to bare in mind the following factors too.

The UK has a much larger population than that of Spain, about 20 million more.

If we actually go on a "per million" basis with that in mind, the UK is actually doing far better than Spain despite the higher overall death toll.

In Spain, the death toll per million is currently running at about 520 deaths per million people.

In the UK, this is far, far lower at 393 per million people, or about 128 people less per million than compared to Spain.

With the rough comparison of the US being a single day behind the UK in the cycle of the pandemic, they're even lower on just 186 dead per million.

By far and away, however, is the unspoken and barely reported on horror that is Belgium, which stands on an eye watering pile of corpses of nearly 657 a day (EDIT: Meant million here, obvs) with just over 11 million people.


We were not counting care home deaths among the daily dead, this has now changed.
 
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Hospital news. No news.

Political news. Hey remember how I was reeing at the journos for their Trump Derangement Syndrome going after Texas? Well Vox and the PP just came out saying that our lockdown lifts are "giving an undue image of relaxation" and should be pushed back.

Every time. Every time the spanish left wing says something dumb, the right goes and doubles down with something even crazier. Every time! WHY?!

This is where stats can look scarier than they are.

You have to bare in mind the following factors too.

The UK has a much larger population than that of Spain, about 20 million more.

If we actually go on a "per million" basis with that in mind, the UK is actually doing far better than Spain despite the higher overall death toll.

In Spain, the death toll per million is currently running at about 520 deaths per million people.

In the UK, this is far, far lower at 393 per million people, or about 128 people less per million than compared to Spain.

With the rough comparison of the US being a single day behind the UK in the cycle of the pandemic, they're even lower on just 186 dead per million.

By far and away, however, is the unspoken and barely reported on horror that is Belgium, which stands on an eye watering pile of corpses of nearly 657 a day with just over 11 million people.


We were not counting care home deaths among the daily dead, this has now changed.

Alright. Kinda makes some sense. Though I still say that platoing extending so far is a bit worrying. But indeed said worry has been replaced by WHAT DID YOU SAY ABOUT BELGIUM?! HOW?!
 
By far and away, however, is the unspoken and barely reported on horror that is Belgium, which stands on an eye watering pile of corpses of nearly 657 a day with just over 11 million people.
Boom. Called it back in March. God I'm smart.

Here is the wiki for cities with highest population density.
Interesting mix. London's not on the list at all (but the tube must make up for it).
The Philippines take the top three spots. We've got a poster giving reports from there, and yet it doesn't sound too bad yet?
So, looking for dense cities in countries with old people, should we be looking for France, Belgium and Greece to start pumping up those rookie numbers?

Real Clear Politics figures . archive
I'm just going to assume Greece's figures here are as reliable as all their other numerical data. And France seems to be pretty much matching the UK, for what I assume are pretty much similar reasons.

Data from non-western nations is basically worthless.
 
iirc term limits wasn't the solution and/or would've other effects, which is the reason the forefathers never implemented it
No they didn't implement it because they thought we weren't exceptional enough to need them. Having tards like Nancy Pelosi and John McCain sit in office for their entire lives was not the intent, they assumed that people would do a couple of terms and go back to their actual jobs and life.
 
No social distancing in Japan, though I think the hot baths in this video are gonna get dr. MedCram at hot and bothered, he seems to be really into hot baths judging by his videos LMAO:

#Tokyo2020CANCELLED
No social distancing in Japan, though I think the hot baths in this video are gonna get dr. MedCram at hot and bothered, he seems to be really into hot baths judging by his videos LMAO:
#Tokyo2020CANCELLED
Didn't Jello cuck out for Hillary pretty hardcore? It was amusing since the first time I heard about just how evil the Clintons are was... from Jello's spoken word back in the day.

Not that it matters since East Bay Ray et all stole his band and songs from him.

But Lynched Obamas? Don't you know that REE REE Punk Rock is Progressive Communism REE REE?

No, seriously, you're seeing a bunch of fake punks that happen to also be Hipster Communist / Twitter Antifa say that. "We own Punk and thus Punk has to adhere to our politics, because it's counterculture and we're the counterculture -- our friends at FaceTwitterTube say so!"

Reminds me of when the "The Last Night" dev announced his cyberpunk game was gonna have a Progressive Dystopia and the same types claimed ownership of Cyberpunk and thus his game couldn't have a progressive dystopia cause that doesn't make sense, all progressive politics are inherently utopian.

Insane, entitled fashionistas. Real punk rockers in 2020 are calling for an Ethnostate, just because it pisses off people like Antifa. Should be interesting to see if a "right wing punk" movement ever takes off.
No, seriously, you're seeing a bunch of fake punks that happen to also be Hipster Communist / Twitter Antifa say that. (Archive)
Japan to offer anti-flu drug Avigan to 38 countries as early as this week (Archive)
Prime Minister did today's briefing and officially announced the UK is through the peak.


The government has also released an info film about part 5 of the 5 part lockdown lift list, dubbed "Project R" to try and keep the rate below 1.0.


Good video, good visuals, stern but warm voice.
Prime Minister did today's briefing and officially announced the UK is through the peak.
The government has also released an info film about part 5 of the 5 part lockdown lift list, dubbed "Project R" to try and keep the rate below 1.0.
Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin got infected.
Also they have confirmed 7,099 new coronavirus infections today, "bringing the country’s official number of cases to 106,498 and marking a new one-day record increase. Russia is now the eighth most-affected country in terms of infections, having surpassed China and Iran this week."
1. Mikhail Mishustin got infected. (Archive)
2. bringing the country’s official number of cases to 106,498 (Archive)
Nope, the cars are cleaned and in fact, New York City is stopping overnight subway service for the first time since the early 20th century in order to clean subways cars every night beginning tonight. This is significant because NYC was the only subway to run 24/7 (it also doesn't charge per zone, that is you pay to get one fare to go anywhere the subway goes) I believe the cars and stations were disinfected every 72 hours before today's announcement.

All customers will be required to leave the trains and the stations during this time.
The MTA also announced a new code of conduct Wednesday amid the coronavirus pandemic that includes:
--No person is permitted to remain in a station for more than an hour
--No person can remain on a train or platform after an announcement that the train is being taken out of service
--Wheeled carts greater than 30 inches in length or width, including shopping and grocery carts, are banned
The City has agreed to deploy additional NYPD resources systemwide.


I'm pretty sure this was done to stop the hobos from using the trains as sleeping cars. Great, now they'll sleep inside the bank ATMs or probably where we keep the trash.
All customers will be required to leave the trains and the stations during this time.
The MTA also announced a new code of conduct Wednesday amid the coronavirus pandemic that includes:
--No person is permitted to remain in a station for more than an hour
--No person can remain on a train or platform after an announcement that the train is being taken out of service
--Wheeled carts greater than 30 inches in length or width, including shopping and grocery carts, are banned

The City has agreed to deploy additional NYPD resources systemwide. (Archive)
https://youtu.be/o8VCJt3szo4

Man complains that people aren't social distancing on the bus over in New Jersey
Man complains that people aren't social distancing on the bus over in New Jersey

Some small municipalities in Japan began distributing on Thursday one-off cash handouts to people to help cushion them from the economic fallout related to the new coronavirus’ spread.



Small municipalities in Japan begin handing out cash for virus relief (Archive)
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so the bbc has some explaining to do.


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1. Archive of Alex's tweet: https://archive.vn/VCLCn
2. Archive of dA's page: https://archive.vn/DJg9R
This is a former public radio reporter. These people are horrifying. Wishing others will die gasping for air for exercising the exact same 1st Amendment rights that allowed him to work as a “journalist” for decades...

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Couldn’t agree more. Needed a new monitor recently and my company said we can buy anything we need to work from home, so I ordered the first one I saw on Amazon that fit my desired specs.
1.Aaron's tweet: Source (Archive)
2.Bloggie's tweet: Source (Archive)
3.Truth's tweet: Source (Archive)
UK Daily:

1,023,824 Tested (+122,347)

177,454 Positive (+6,201)

27,510 Dead (+739)


Hancock's Fine Hour:

Despite "Experts" once again claiming the UK was unlikely to meet its 100,000 tests a day target, the UK's smashed it.

Even the BBC seems to be glad through gritted teeth for a change as it's well above the target set.
Experts (Archive)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember, archive everything !
 
Someone I know vehemently claims that no businesses have closed due to government orders and that the lockdowns aren’t being enforced, so it’s cool and there’s no civil liberties violations happening. None at all. (:_(

Oh they have. It's where they get cute remarks like "you know if black people started buying guns the gun laws would change over night" to imply that gun owners are racist despite the fact that gun owners when asked aren't bothered by black Americans owning guns.

Absolutely. Per usual, they study movements and take stupid lessons from them. Instead of thinking the Black Panthers had some good points about that whole self-defense and self-reliance thing and putting those points into action in their lives, they see it as an opportunity for a racially charged gotcha. It’s typical leftist idiocy.
 
Johns Hopkins.

3,249,667 confirmed
232,936 Deaths
= 13.95% Fatality Rate

fatality rate of confirmed cases seems pretty high.

Looking good guys lets get back to work.

232,936 is 7.2% of 3,249,667.

You appear to have estimated fatality rate by dividing the number of confirmed cases by the number of deaths, then slapping "percent" onto the quotient.
 
You appear to have estimated fatality rate by dividing the number of confirmed cases by the number of deaths, then slapping "percent" onto the quotient.

Yeah but that's not his fault. He's already explained how the Corona gets into your brain and makes you innumerate before it full-on zombifies you and you need to roam the Earth hunting for brains to top up your empty skull.

It's not just the flu, people.
 
The UK's National Health Service is planning to put British doctors and nurses disproportionately in harms way because non-British staff have been disproportionately affected by coronavirus.
Safe to say the 'problem' this is addressing is the result of two main factors:
  1. Overrepresentation of non-British healthcare staff in London, which has been hardest hit, commensurate with their overrepresentation in general there
  2. Foreign institutions like the University of the West Indies may not reach the high standards of training that British ones like the Buck New University do
In the case of #1, it seems a little odd to import British staff into London just so they can get sick and die. In the case of #2, if these foreign aliens can't cut it, why are they in Britain?

What happened to You Clap For Me Now?
 
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