You seem to think my bet is based on polls.
You haven't given a better reason though. Biden's a bad candidate, his base isn't voting for him as anything other than a "Not the Other Guy" vote, which doesn't work in the US Electoral system, the only real play the Democrats had was the Sideways-Vagina Virus and that is basically winding down now since the fatality rate is dropping, the riots and vandalism aren't helping the Democrats and Biden's VP pick is Kamala Harris, who will almost certainly depress black voter turnout.
There's other stuff I'm forgetting, I think, but what else do the Dems have? Voter fraud? I suspect that Trump will have the sort of turnout that will make anything like that too obvious for the Democrat party to get away with. Not to mention that Trump will almost certainly destroy Biden in the debates, and if Biden skips the debates that will hurt him as well.
Trump meanwhile, is the incumbent and has an inherent advantage for that reason alone, has a massive amount of support from rank and file republicans, an economy that is gradually starting to recover, the coronavirus is, again, winding down, the riots have likely hurt the Dems and allowed Trump to position himself as a law and order candidate, and his supporters are actually voting for him and not "Not the Other Guy". I could be wrong here dude, but I'm just not seeing a Biden victory as being all that likely.