Sunday School Dropout
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2019
For those of you that insist on repeating the lie that the polls where wrong in 2016
Please watch the entire video.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
- Start date
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- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Of course, it wouldn't be surprising if McConnell and Miss Lindsey get re-elected, but not Trump.
It's 2020, after all.
It's 2020, after all.
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2018
Don't see any Trump signs other than my own, but I have seen signs for local Republicans as well as "we support the police" / "thin blue line" signs.
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
this video explains that polls really were wrong in 2016
(the national polling aggregate on RCP on election day was close to the real final margin, but there were far too many Statewide polls for crucial states close to election day that were really off, and there were many Nationwide polls from weeks and months before that which were far off from the final result)
jje100010001
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2020
Bumpy times ahead? Things to look ahead to in late summer: The timing of the second stimulus package + the "second wave"- both are crucial to the economic well-being of the country.
In other news, some crosswinds for Biden as Chris Dodd was revealed as being in charge of vetting the VP- and he doesn't like Kamala. Who's going to give?
No one really wants Biden- hence the lack of signs. However, that shouldn't be directly translated into Trump support- people may likely still begrudgingly drag themselves to the polling stations to vote out Trump if things don't calm down by the election.
Trump still needs to be fighting as if he was actually 10 points behind.
In other news, some crosswinds for Biden as Chris Dodd was revealed as being in charge of vetting the VP- and he doesn't like Kamala. Who's going to give?
Fits right into this narrative from the poll a few pages ago:
No one really wants Biden- hence the lack of signs. However, that shouldn't be directly translated into Trump support- people may likely still begrudgingly drag themselves to the polling stations to vote out Trump if things don't calm down by the election.
Trump still needs to be fighting as if he was actually 10 points behind.
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- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
Fuck it. I've become an election polling autist since 2018 so let me do a quick infodump off the top of my head.
Let me address nationwide polls at first, and why the "but muh polling average was right in 2016 and 2018" argument is misleading.
First of all, there were still some nationwide polls close to election day from 'reputable' pollsters that were way off. Monmouth had a Hillary+6 poll. NBC had a Hillary+7 poll. CNBC had a Hillary+10 poll. Associated Press had a Hillary+13 poll. Those are all off beyond the margin of error in a manner that can't be excused.
Part of the reason that the average was close to the mark is because of the inclusion of some polls that shitlibs at the time dismissed as overly friendly to Trump. Dig the Internet enough and you can still see old comments about how the "LATimes polls are awful" (to be fair they overestimated the final results for Trump by quite a bit, but not quite as much as others polls overestimated Hillary), how the "Fox polls undoubtedly overestimate Trump" (they actually underestimated by a bit), and "how other polls were underestimating Hillary" when they either actually underestimated Trump or were on the mark.
And if you look at nationwide polls months ahead of time? You'll see the same pollsters which have Biden up by large numbers right now, having Hillary up by large numbers. ABC News / Washington Post had a Hillary+12 poll just a little over a couple weeks before election day, they also have a Biden+10 poll released just last week. NBC / Wall Street Journal had a Hillary+14 poll in early October. They had a Biden+11 poll last week.
Seriously, just take a look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio...ted_States_presidential_election#Two-way_race
Yes, Biden had a better mid-late May, June, and July than Hillary had (you'll see some of them throw this argument out). But he also had a worse January, February, and March. There's the possibility that he'll have a worse August, September, October (and November!). Different years, different trajectories.
Basically, all the above means that you can't declare that Biden doing well in nationwide polls months ahead of time means that he'll automatically do better than Hillary or win. People may even be more shy to admit their Trump support (for fucks sake, a mother was shot dead for saying 'All Lives Matter' and BLM supporters flooded her facebook page with comments taunting her family). The people running the polls may be deliberately making them even more Dem skewed in order to run a narrative. And while some voters may have been turned off because of coronavirus, they can still be won back if they learn how overhyped it was and how the lockdowns are hurting more than helping and start blaming the Democrats for pushing unnecessarily draconian practices (not to mention that while some may be turned off from Trump because of perceived coronavirus mishandling, they can still be turned off Biden even more because he's part of the party of BLM riots).
----
Now...let me address the second part: Statewide polls
Iowa: Some final polls had it at a close race. Quinnipiac had Trump+1, Loras had it tied. Final result? Trump+9 -- MASSIVE miss.
Ohio: again, had it at a somewhat close race. NBC/ Wall Street Journal / Marist had a Trump+1 poll in early October. Final result? Trump+8 -- MASSIVE miss
Michigan/Pennsylvania: vast majority of polls showed this as not competitive at all. Had Hillary up by +6-7 or more at times. NBC/WSJ/Marist had a Hillary+12 in Pennsylvania. Bloomberg/Selzer had a Hillary+9 poll in Pennsylvania. Only Trafalgar had Trump winning either state. Michigan State University had Hillary+19 in Michigan, Public Policy Polling had a Hillary+6 poll shortly before election day. Final result? Trump wins both states, first Republican to do so since 1988 (28 years)!
(I'll discuss Trafalgar at a later time)
Wisconsin: no polls had Trump ahead. Many had Hillary up +6, some had her up double digits. Final result? Trump wins, first Republican to do so since 1984 (32 years)!
I can go on and on about that, but the point should be proven.
Now, Trafalgar, the only pollster that got Pennsylvania and Michigan right, and also had many decent accurate predictions for the midwest in 2018, has Trump in close races with Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
When you *really* study the 2016 and 2018 polling and compare to real final results for the respective elections, you'll realize that nationwide polls taken a long time before election day can be drastically off from the final result (mainly overestimating the Democrat by a lot), and that statewide polls for the most part (even close to election day) can be way off (mainly overestimating the Democrat by a lot).
Addendum: in many of these Statewide polls, what you can often (not always) do to conveniently get an accurate result is to add all the undecideds to the Republican's percentage. For instance, if there are 48% who say they're voting for the Dem, 40% voting for the Repub, 3% third party, and 9% undecided, you can usually add all those undecideds to the Republican (shy supporters, perhaps) and get a result like 49% Republican 48% Democrat 3% Third Party which often turns out to be close to the final result. If you do that for many of these new Statewide polls, you'll see that Biden and Trump are in a close race.
Right now, I think if the election were today that it's a close race that Biden would probably win in a tight margin. Reason he wins *today* is because coronavirus and race riots have made some people disatisfied with the incumbent. However - that doesn't mean that those people have *really thought things through* and think Trump is worse than Biden because of well thought out logical reasons, but because of a sense of emotional negativity that they tie to the incumbent. THESE VOTERS COULD VERY WELL FLIP in three months. I can tell that some have already flipped back to Trump given that there's a tightening in the polls compared to early-mid June.
The final three months are always the most decisive. Take a look at 2016 -- Hillary did well with people who decided before September. But for people who decided in September and October and the first days of November? Trump massively lead with those. Same thing happened with Romney. It seems Republican voters tend to "decide" later on.
Lockdowns unwinding, BLM riots dying down, economy getting better, Biden flunking the debates, Biden having more negative media against him thanks to Trump campaign's MASSIVE billion dollar warchest running at full blast, Trump having more positive media thanks to Trump campaign's MASSIVE billion dollar warchest running at full blast --> race shifts from *Biden leading by a small amount* to *Trump leading by a decently sized amount*. I think Trump could very well be leading not too long from now, and it's actually possible (given how inaccurate polls in the past have been) that he wins in a close race *EVEN IF THE ELECTION WERE TODAY*.
Let me address nationwide polls at first, and why the "but muh polling average was right in 2016 and 2018" argument is misleading.
First of all, there were still some nationwide polls close to election day from 'reputable' pollsters that were way off. Monmouth had a Hillary+6 poll. NBC had a Hillary+7 poll. CNBC had a Hillary+10 poll. Associated Press had a Hillary+13 poll. Those are all off beyond the margin of error in a manner that can't be excused.
Part of the reason that the average was close to the mark is because of the inclusion of some polls that shitlibs at the time dismissed as overly friendly to Trump. Dig the Internet enough and you can still see old comments about how the "LATimes polls are awful" (to be fair they overestimated the final results for Trump by quite a bit, but not quite as much as others polls overestimated Hillary), how the "Fox polls undoubtedly overestimate Trump" (they actually underestimated by a bit), and "how other polls were underestimating Hillary" when they either actually underestimated Trump or were on the mark.
And if you look at nationwide polls months ahead of time? You'll see the same pollsters which have Biden up by large numbers right now, having Hillary up by large numbers. ABC News / Washington Post had a Hillary+12 poll just a little over a couple weeks before election day, they also have a Biden+10 poll released just last week. NBC / Wall Street Journal had a Hillary+14 poll in early October. They had a Biden+11 poll last week.
Seriously, just take a look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio...ted_States_presidential_election#Two-way_race
Yes, Biden had a better mid-late May, June, and July than Hillary had (you'll see some of them throw this argument out). But he also had a worse January, February, and March. There's the possibility that he'll have a worse August, September, October (and November!). Different years, different trajectories.
Basically, all the above means that you can't declare that Biden doing well in nationwide polls months ahead of time means that he'll automatically do better than Hillary or win. People may even be more shy to admit their Trump support (for fucks sake, a mother was shot dead for saying 'All Lives Matter' and BLM supporters flooded her facebook page with comments taunting her family). The people running the polls may be deliberately making them even more Dem skewed in order to run a narrative. And while some voters may have been turned off because of coronavirus, they can still be won back if they learn how overhyped it was and how the lockdowns are hurting more than helping and start blaming the Democrats for pushing unnecessarily draconian practices (not to mention that while some may be turned off from Trump because of perceived coronavirus mishandling, they can still be turned off Biden even more because he's part of the party of BLM riots).
----
Now...let me address the second part: Statewide polls
Iowa: Some final polls had it at a close race. Quinnipiac had Trump+1, Loras had it tied. Final result? Trump+9 -- MASSIVE miss.
Ohio: again, had it at a somewhat close race. NBC/ Wall Street Journal / Marist had a Trump+1 poll in early October. Final result? Trump+8 -- MASSIVE miss
Michigan/Pennsylvania: vast majority of polls showed this as not competitive at all. Had Hillary up by +6-7 or more at times. NBC/WSJ/Marist had a Hillary+12 in Pennsylvania. Bloomberg/Selzer had a Hillary+9 poll in Pennsylvania. Only Trafalgar had Trump winning either state. Michigan State University had Hillary+19 in Michigan, Public Policy Polling had a Hillary+6 poll shortly before election day. Final result? Trump wins both states, first Republican to do so since 1988 (28 years)!
(I'll discuss Trafalgar at a later time)
Wisconsin: no polls had Trump ahead. Many had Hillary up +6, some had her up double digits. Final result? Trump wins, first Republican to do so since 1984 (32 years)!
I can go on and on about that, but the point should be proven.
Now, Trafalgar, the only pollster that got Pennsylvania and Michigan right, and also had many decent accurate predictions for the midwest in 2018, has Trump in close races with Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
When you *really* study the 2016 and 2018 polling and compare to real final results for the respective elections, you'll realize that nationwide polls taken a long time before election day can be drastically off from the final result (mainly overestimating the Democrat by a lot), and that statewide polls for the most part (even close to election day) can be way off (mainly overestimating the Democrat by a lot).
Addendum: in many of these Statewide polls, what you can often (not always) do to conveniently get an accurate result is to add all the undecideds to the Republican's percentage. For instance, if there are 48% who say they're voting for the Dem, 40% voting for the Repub, 3% third party, and 9% undecided, you can usually add all those undecideds to the Republican (shy supporters, perhaps) and get a result like 49% Republican 48% Democrat 3% Third Party which often turns out to be close to the final result. If you do that for many of these new Statewide polls, you'll see that Biden and Trump are in a close race.
Right now, I think if the election were today that it's a close race that Biden would probably win in a tight margin. Reason he wins *today* is because coronavirus and race riots have made some people disatisfied with the incumbent. However - that doesn't mean that those people have *really thought things through* and think Trump is worse than Biden because of well thought out logical reasons, but because of a sense of emotional negativity that they tie to the incumbent. THESE VOTERS COULD VERY WELL FLIP in three months. I can tell that some have already flipped back to Trump given that there's a tightening in the polls compared to early-mid June.
The final three months are always the most decisive. Take a look at 2016 -- Hillary did well with people who decided before September. But for people who decided in September and October and the first days of November? Trump massively lead with those. Same thing happened with Romney. It seems Republican voters tend to "decide" later on.
Lockdowns unwinding, BLM riots dying down, economy getting better, Biden flunking the debates, Biden having more negative media against him thanks to Trump campaign's MASSIVE billion dollar warchest running at full blast, Trump having more positive media thanks to Trump campaign's MASSIVE billion dollar warchest running at full blast --> race shifts from *Biden leading by a small amount* to *Trump leading by a decently sized amount*. I think Trump could very well be leading not too long from now, and it's actually possible (given how inaccurate polls in the past have been) that he wins in a close race *EVEN IF THE ELECTION WERE TODAY*.
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2019
A comment on the race riot bit - there were reports of several million new gun sales in the US after that kicked off. Plus, Trump sending in the feds to deal with the riots (that the Democratic Party is/are supporting) may give hints to these new gun owners supporting 45. Those people scared enough to buy guns for the first time are likely scared enough to vote as well.
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2019
Notre Dame School Withdraws As Host Of First Presidential Debate
Case Western Reserve University in Ohio will host it instead.
Case Western Reserve University in Ohio will host it instead.
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
one more thing to add -- it's not unprecedented for even a double digit lead to dwindle
look at March 23 -> Hillary up +11.4
two months later, in May 23 -> Trump up ahead at a tiny margin
www.realclearpolitics.com
look at December 8 -> Biden up 9.8
literally only eleven days later -> Biden up 4.4
and note that some of these 2020 polls are done by new pollsters that didn't even do 2016 and could very well be even more inaccurate
note that while Rasmussen was way off in 2018, they were on point in 2016. If they're as correct in 2020 as they were in 2016, Biden is only up by around 2 right now.
Economist/YouGov had Hillary up by around 7 at times. What's the latest Economist/YouGov poll? Biden+7, and it definitely can be off by 2 based on how their latest 2016 poll compared to the real final result. It can even be off by more given the context it was taken (Trump supporters more shy given recent events). I speculate that it may even be off by around 4, which means Biden is only up by +3, which is a VERY surmountable lead three months ahead.
Even if the lead was really +7 or more, there are multiple cases in American election history where such leads were overcome in a short time span (see: some October 2016 polls). And +3 lead can literally be erased after a bad news week.
look at March 23 -> Hillary up +11.4
two months later, in May 23 -> Trump up ahead at a tiny margin
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
look at December 8 -> Biden up 9.8
literally only eleven days later -> Biden up 4.4
and note that some of these 2020 polls are done by new pollsters that didn't even do 2016 and could very well be even more inaccurate
note that while Rasmussen was way off in 2018, they were on point in 2016. If they're as correct in 2020 as they were in 2016, Biden is only up by around 2 right now.
Economist/YouGov had Hillary up by around 7 at times. What's the latest Economist/YouGov poll? Biden+7, and it definitely can be off by 2 based on how their latest 2016 poll compared to the real final result. It can even be off by more given the context it was taken (Trump supporters more shy given recent events). I speculate that it may even be off by around 4, which means Biden is only up by +3, which is a VERY surmountable lead three months ahead.
Even if the lead was really +7 or more, there are multiple cases in American election history where such leads were overcome in a short time span (see: some October 2016 polls). And +3 lead can literally be erased after a bad news week.
jje100010001
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2020
Is this going to be the way Biden slithers out of a debate? The University of Michigan had already dropped one debate earlier, and if the second wave ends up as hyped up as the media wants it to be...
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2020
All these institutions are stumping for Biden and it's honestly sickening. They should just do it in an open-air place if muh coof is such an alleged concern. Or test every single person that comes in. Or both. It's such an easily fixable problem, but Biden slithering out of the spotlight because all these libshit institutions want him to avoid appearing weak truly makes me angry.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
The debates will hurt Biden whether they go on or not. If they go on as normal, he'll look weak. If his team rigs them, he'll appear slimy for having to do the thing pre-recorded. If he doesn't do them, he doesn't get his message across and voters don't know what he stands for minus "I'm not Trump".
And I'm sure Trump will balk if Biden's camp puts forth the idea of him Debating the VP.
And I'm sure Trump will balk if Biden's camp puts forth the idea of him Debating the VP.
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2019
Meanwhile
7 mill in cash, 6 mill in debt, and just took out 10 mill to finance the election. If the DNC doesn't win 2020... Welp.
Can a political party become insolvent?
7 mill in cash, 6 mill in debt, and just took out 10 mill to finance the election. If the DNC doesn't win 2020... Welp.
Can a political party become insolvent?
- Joined
- May 25, 2013
To be fair I'll ask what the RNC is looking at for loans. I've heard their fundraising has been gangbusters but I can't say I know anything at all about what the usual is about taking out lines of credit in a campaign year, but I can see that it might not be uncommon if not often brought up.
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2020
I'm not sure if this was posted before but this is the DNC 2020 draft platform. I haven't gone through it other than to note it's full of identity politics and gibs. Also a whole section on banning assault rifles, making gun manufacturers liable for lawsuits, banning online sales of guns and ammunition, etc. That right there seems enough to galvanize quite a few voters who have purchased firearms this past year—and they certainly aren't all conservative Republican voters who did so. Also they repeat "muh gender wage gap!" bullshit, but what else is new about denying facts from the party of LBTIQIAPEDO+ gender time cube nonsense.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
They are technically a corporation, so yes.
I mentioned earlier I though someone was going to come in and force their will upon the DNC. If they lose, this might happen sooner than later. A big donor will buy out their debt and then put their people in positions of power within the DNC. Hopefully it someone with populous politics and not someone who wants to further the DNC's losing strategies. Probably the former since they'll eventually their loan paid off and populous politics will bring in more middle class donors.
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2019
... Could Trump buy their debt?
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
Yes, but that would be a bad look for Trump.
Sopressata
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2020
I find the onslaught from mainstream media saying “BIDEN IS SO AHEAD IN THE POLLS HE’S KILLING IT ! “ to be concerning. First of all it’s really not true duh. It’s obvious that they are doing this for one of two possible reasons ...1.) Using this as “evidence” for a coverup as they plan to steal the election or 2.) something to use against Trump if he wins along with tossing in N Korea or Russian interference blah blah. They will not accept defeat easily. It will be a shitfest of accusations and manipulative accusations to get the violence and unrest going again if it calms down.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
Im just amazed at A.how fucking cheap these organizations are, it takes very little to buy a politican.
B. Despite their best fundraising in decades they still are in debt
C.their rich friends arent willing to help out. Say what you will about niggers, the few black rich were perfectly fine ending up broke and homeless if it meant better for their people. Bloomberg, steyer, clooney, and all the other liberal billionaires arent willing to give the Dems a donation of 100 mil? You would think being known as the man that saved America would be enough to get them to donate the cash.
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