China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[Return of the Freaker]

Honestly, if the dam collapses, I don't the people are revolting against the CCP, at least immediately.

What I think is far more likely is you get regional military acting as the de jure local CCP authority while de facto they become warlords cliques; Then you have that status quo for a decade or so before the next wacky milleniarian movment becomes strong enough that the peasents finally revolt... under that movement which, after it overthrows the warlords, goes full circle until it is very similar to the ccp they overthrew. Then wait a century or so for the cycle to repeat.

I mean that's basically the Chinese dynastic cycle since ancient times, just sped up.

 

[Roybertitos]

Full scale, nation-wide uprising? Unlikely. The floods had been hitting many regions of Hubei hard, but China is a large, large country too, and for every peasant affected, there will be hundred more indifferent.

But localised unrest due to the ruin suffered in and around Hubei? You betcha. I bet dollars to doughnuts now that the PLA is already suiting up for "disaster relief" aka crowd control.

Well I'm talking more if you factor in everything else. Covid shuttered a ton of shops and factories and apparently the government gives no aid to its people. Once the bread and circus is kaput, don't the riots come next?

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

So did anything happen or is this another huge nothing burger?

A large portion of China's farmland has been destroyed and hundreds of millions of people are flooded out, with no sign of relief for at least three weeks. Towns, villages, and cities alike are facing destruction of vital infrastructure like bridges, railways, and roads; and most will be left to their own devices when it comes to rebuilding. The absolute worst case has not happened and likely will not, but the event is still catastrophic.

 

[Second Hand Syringe]

Full scale, nation-wide uprising? Unlikely. The floods had been hitting many regions of Hubei hard, but China is a large, large country too, and for every peasant affected, there will be hundred more indifferent.

But localised unrest due to the ruin suffered in and around Hubei? You betcha. I bet dollars to doughnuts now that the PLA is already suiting up for "disaster relief" aka crowd control.

Don't forget the droughts. Lots of agricultural land that isn't flooded is drought ridden and dry. Rice crops are looking like shit this year if rumors on chinese social media are to be at all believed. I think there's going to be a lot of hungry chinks this winter.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Don't forget the droughts. Lots of agricultural land that isn't flooded is drought ridden and dry. Rice crops are looking like shit this year if rumors on chinese social media are to be at all believed. I think there's going to be a lot of hungry chinks this winter.

There were locust swarms as well. And disease outbreaks in the meat production industry. Most of the nation's pigs had to be culled.

 

[Syaoran Li]

Honestly, if the dam collapses, I don't the people are revolting against the CCP, at least immediately.

What I think is far more likely is you get regional military acting as the de jure local CCP authority while de facto they become warlords cliques; Then you have that status quo for a decade or so before the next wacky milleniarian movment becomes strong enough that the peasents finally revolt... under that movement which, after it overthrows the warlords, goes full circle until it is very similar to the ccp they overthrew. Then wait a century or so for the cycle to repeat.

Agreed, although if the Three Gorges Dam does collapse, I could expect an internal CCP coup to remove Xi Jinping from power and use him as a scapegoat to pacify the masses for a bit.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

The weirdo then I mentionned in an earlier post, come to the rescue of Xi-Pooh-chan. I post only an exterpt. https://www.city-data.com/forum/pol...413-more-i-investigate-more-i-support-14.html

The more I investigate, the more I support China - Politics and Other…

archived 29 Jul 2020 17:08:57 UTC

archive.vn

Most people in HK are in favor of the new law, but the West doesn't care. It only cares about the small percentage of loud radicals.
In fact, the handover agreement already asked for such a law on national security to be introduced. If Beijing made a mistake, it is that they didn't implement such a law much earlier, as it should have been.
Macau got almost the same national security law in 2009, and it works fine there. Macau, which used to be a Portuguese colony, has displayed a very different attitude towards Beijing, not hostile like parts of HK. And Macau is doing fine, it is one of the best places on Earth to live.
HK should go and learn from Macau.

 

[ZMOT]

Honestly, if the dam collapses, I don't the people are revolting against the CCP, at least immediately.

What I think is far more likely is you get regional military acting as the de jure local CCP authority while de facto they become warlords cliques;

beijing would never allow that power to accumulate, even when shit gets literally flushed down the toilet. the point of a totalitarian regime is to have total power after all.

 

[ConfederateIrishman]

beijing would never allow that power to accumulate, even when shit gets literally flushed down the toilet. the point of a totalitarian regime is to have total power after all.

They would have two problems

• Their infrastructure (!) will be split in half due to the dam bursting, leaving a lot of areas completely isolated
• Since Xi is already a controversial figure among the CCP, a power struggle is likely to break out if the worst happens

Yes the point of a totalitarian regime is to have absolute control, but in this scenario the very foundation of that control is damaged and not enough time has passed for Xi to have completed centralizing the party under him; After all, this would be a black swan event if it happens, so plans for this scenario might not be mapped out well.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

They would have two problems

• Their infrastructure (!) will be split in half due to the dam bursting, leaving a lot of areas completely isolated
• Since Xi is already a controversial figure among the CCP, a power struggle is likely to break out if the worst happens

Yes the point of a totalitarian regime is to have absolute control, but in this scenario the very foundation of that control is damaged and not enough time has passed for Xi to have completed centralizing the party under him; After all, this would be a black swan event if it happens, so plans for this scenario might not be mapped out well.

I think Xi's days are numbered as it is, irrespective of the fate of the Three Gorges Dam. What is happening now is just more on top of the pile. Xi isn't going to die the venerated leader he had hoped to be just two short years ago.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

I think Xi's days are numbered as it is, irrespective of the fate of the Three Gorges Dam. What is happening now is just more on top of the pile. Xi isn't going to die the venerated leader he had hoped to be just two short years ago.

Indeed, there's some chances he might get the same fate as Nicolae Ceausescu.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

I mean that's basically the Chinese dynastic cycle since ancient times, just sped up.

On very special occasions, China also breaks apart into several autonomous states. One can only hope we're at that point in history again.
Wouldn't it be funny if China broke apart, giving Taiwan, Tibet, Hong Kong and so on the opportunity to grab whatever is available? I wouldn't mind that at all.
I know it won't happen, it's simply impossible, but it would be pretty nice.

A large portion of China's farmland has been destroyed and hundreds of millions of people are flooded out, with no sign of relief for at least three weeks. Towns, villages, and cities alike are facing destruction of vital infrastructure like bridges, railways, and roads; and most will be left to their own devices when it comes to rebuilding. The absolute worst case has not happened and likely will not, but the event is still catastrophic.

This also accelerates the trend for global corporations to set up their production facilities in other nations. Any factory owned by a foreign company, that got destroyed, has to be replaced, giving a strong incentive to do so in a different part of the world, where labour is cheaper, where you don't have to dick around with the ccp, where you can start the construction right away, instead of waiting for the necessary infrastructure to be rebuilt to even begin reconstruction. They might already have factories in other nations and only have to expand them, too.

Any chinese company, that is embedded in a global supplychain, that is now unable to deliver goods, has to be replaced anyway, so it might become permanent.

Also, how exactly are those that were displaced housed now? If they are stuck in large provisional shelters (such as big exhibition halls or similar places filled with beds and lackluster supply of showers and unhygienic eating areas), that might also cause some major issues, if Corona goes for another encoré of lapdances. All in all, we are looking at a winter with way more expensive food and bad living conditions for a lot of people. A second wave of the WuFlu will hit the chinese like a sack of brass doorknobs and any attempt to combat that will come at the cost of buttfucking the economy and stalling the rebuilding process of basic infrastructure.

The ccp is in a pretty bad place at the moment, but it looks like it is going to become even worse.
And there are plenty of things, that could go catastrophically wrong really quickly.

 

[IamSpechal]

 

[Iceland Heavy]

Were there more sensible alternatives to the 3GD that would've controlled Yangtze flooding? Because it seems it did do that right up until it didn't and now China is having to submerge everything both up and downstream of it anyway to stop it from destroying China as a functioning state.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Were there more sensible alternatives to the 3GD that would've controlled Yangtze flooding? Because it seems it did do that right up until it didn't and now China is having to submerge everything both up and downstream of it anyway to stop it from destroying China as a functioning state.

Multiple smaller dams across tributaries to the yangtzee would have had the same effect with far less potential destructive ability.

 

[Cycleye]

Dams and the reservoirs they create are just another way humankind goes about fucking things up. Beavers build dams but they build them in the right places and create habitats for themselves and other animals. They manage what they create and they play a part in creating the diversity nature wants and it is all sustainable.
Humans, on the other hand, build stuff that breaks nature and went it breaks we end up doing even more damage , and our contribution to diversity, on this planet, is bullshit like men in dresses.

 

[RomanesEuntDomus]

Multiple smaller dams across tributaries to the yangtzee would have had the same effect with far less potential destructive ability.

The only reason to build one fuckhuge dam instead of a plethora of small ones that are spread out, is typical authoritarian megalomania. It's meant to show off the superiority of chinese bugmen and their party leaders.

Dams and the reservoirs they create are just another way humankind goes about fucking things up. Beavers build dams but they build them in the right places and create habitats for themselves and other animals. They manage what they create and they play a part in creating the diversity nature wants and it is all sustainable.
Humans, on the other hand, build stuff that breaks nature and went it breaks we end up doing even more damage , and our contribution to diversity, on this planet, is bullshit like men in dresses.

 

[UntimelyDhelmise]

Also, how exactly are those that were displaced housed now? If they are stuck in large provisional shelters (such as big exhibition halls or similar places filled with beds and lackluster supply of showers and unhygienic eating areas), that might also cause some major issues, if Corona goes for another encoré of lapdances. All in all, we are looking at a winter with way more expensive food and bad living conditions for a lot of people. A second wave of the WuFlu will hit the chinese like a sack of brass doorknobs and any attempt to combat that will come at the cost of buttfucking the economy and stalling the rebuilding process of basic infrastructure.

Dearest Corona Chan would be the least of their worries. When you get flooding, starvation and general displacement of a huge number of people like this, it's free real estate for a host of pathogens, parasites and molds to take root and sweep through throngs of panicked, compromised communities. And the CCP's utter lack of capacity to care for its own citizens compounds scenarios like this even further.

 

[ConfederateIrishman]

Dams and the reservoirs they create are just another way humankind goes about fucking things up. Beavers build dams but they build them in the right places and create habitats for themselves and other animals. They manage what they create and they play a part in creating the diversity nature wants and it is all sustainable.
Humans, on the other hand, build stuff that breaks nature and went it breaks we end up doing even more damage , and our contribution to diversity, on this planet, is bullshit like men in dresses.

You might be right, but Misanthropy is cringe and for pussies too afraid to be racist.

 

[Puff]

Dams and the reservoirs they create are just another way humankind goes about fucking things up. Beavers build dams but they build them in the right places and create habitats for themselves and other animals. They manage what they create and they play a part in creating the diversity nature wants and it is all sustainable.
Humans, on the other hand, build stuff that breaks nature and went it breaks we end up doing even more damage , and our contribution to diversity, on this planet, is bullshit like men in dresses.

People are as natural as the other things. We're just smarter.