Guy_Incognito
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 3, 2018
I just want want to see him shuffle on the debate stage with his pants between his ankles, salute the backstage curtain and then start mumbling America the Beautiful.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
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Honka Honka Burning Love
In Clown World, the only god is the one who Honks.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2019
Oh please like Biden thinks america is beautiful.
He will start mumbling "China money is beautiful" first.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
Even if the left purged the wokesters from their ranks post 2020, they're still be orange man bad. Just without the "we need to radically change society" angle. Instead it'd be "our solution is the only solution". So whatever the GOP is severving but with the serial numbers filed off. Plus replacing any religious stuff with progressive stuff. Just not as crazy as the woke left.
I still think it'll take a populous donor to purge the party of the neolibs and correct course.
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2020
Just reached the single digits now. We'll see if the post-convention bounce Trump is receiving sticks. What bounce Biden received in the national polls when Harris was announced is all but gone now.
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2020
Worried about Pennsylvania now. They are going to pull the "count mail in ballots 3 days after the election" shit that flipped Arizona. They are trying to pull the biggest piece off the board.
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2019
My mind's been made up for awhile now. If Biden wins, it's fraud.
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2019
I still can't get over how dumb and out of touch they are at FiveThirtyEight.
No. Support for BLM is not going to rise again, you fucking dolt.
No. Support for BLM is not going to rise again, you fucking dolt.
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2019
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2020
In 2018, Senate seat
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2019
538 is just wrong, and they know they're pushing narrative. Most of Trump's approval dip occurred just before Floyd's death.
737 MAX Stan Account
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2020
odds that this second wave of riots turns Minnesota red. Also, the RNC’s got quite a few NY speakers tonite. Their numbers must tell them it might be in play.
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
I hope that it doesn't all hinge on a state like Pennsylvania anyway. If he can keep the 2016 map, then it doesn't matter. Even just Wisconsin would be enough, or if Minnesota flips red too.
Martha McSally's not the most well-liked candidate either, so that case is pretty different.
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2020
I've been saying this for some time, but don't hold your breathe for either Pennsylvania or Michigan to stay red. While it's not impossible, there is nothing indicating that Trump might hold on to those states. We'll have to see how Trump is faring when we get closer to the electoral season, but this is why I keep saying he needs to hit Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota with all he's got and win them while also keeping Iowa, Maine Congressional District 2, Nebraska Congressional District 2, and North Carolina. He, unfortunately, doesn't have the advantage of a booming economy anymore and that will hurt his standing among Rust Belt voters. A Trump landslide is not happening. He should count his blessing if he gets a second term and it will take a lot of luck to reach 300+ electoral votes again.
Though to be fair, Trump has been doing better in Wisconsin lately, so I can also see him keeping that state. This poll by Trafalgar where he barely beats Biden is a good sign. He's also tracking better than he did in 2016 and he was never shown as beating Clinton in a single poll. Time will tell how the Kenosha riot affects the Wisconsin battleground state but I'm keeping an eye out for this one.
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2017
I know nothing of the situation in Pennsylvania, but I think he'll be able to keep North Carolina and probably flip Michigan a second time by the narrowest of margins thanks to just how awful Gretchen Wilmer is. Detroit of all places clamped down hard on the BLM and Antifa shit, and I have no reason to think a large portion of Michigan residents will vote Republican just to spite Wilmer and the rioters.
Wisconsin will probably stay red thanks to the Kenosha riots and the fact that Kenosha itself has been hit hard and is in a county with a large population that's been trending like it could turn red in 2020 even before the riots began.
If he can make sure to win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin again plus flip Minnesota and retain Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa then I think he can win without Pennsylvania but it will be close. Now if he can keep the swing states he won in 2016 and flip Minnesota and possibly Virginia, he'll not only win but it will scare the fuck out of the Democrats.
I'm thinking Minnesota is definitely in play for the GOP for the first time since the 70's and while it's not likely, I do think Trump has a feasible shot at flipping Virginia back to red since Richmond was hit hard by multiple BLM riots and the majority of the counties outside Richmond and NoVA hate Northam for a variety of reasons.
The Dems losing Minnesota (AKA one of the most reliable states outside of the West Coast and New York) and also losing the newly blued Virginia would be a major shock for the DNC and if paired with the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin and the light red states of Arizona and North Carolina, can make a win more likely without Pennsylvania and Michigan
If Trump does win, it will be very close no matter what and the same will apply for Biden as well
I'm hoping for the best, but deep down I'm expecting the absolute worst.
- Joined
- Jun 2, 2020
I find it interesting you're citing political betting, but also the 'Harris bump' that Biden got in the polls. This article explicitly states Biden’s odds dropped after he selected Kamala Harris as his running mate Aug. 11.
Sure, the bookie thinks Harris is going to help Biden's odds in the long term, but that might just be hopeful speculation because he's biased. The bets being placed say otherwise.
So if you're wanting to use political bets as your metric, Harris provided no bump, and even negatively impacted Biden's odds.
Sorry for the autistic sperging about combining betting odds + polls. I just think the polls are basically useless at this point and if you're using betting odds it's better to stick with betting odds across the board rather than looking at polls for one thing and betting odds for another.
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2019
I simultaneously can't believe it's already election season again but also feel like 2016 was a long time ago.
Wonderful Id
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2020
This year alone has been about 3 years long.
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2019
Indeed, it actually freaks me the hell out to think how long ago early 2020 feels.
- Joined
- Jun 28, 2020
You'll have to forgive the cross-thread discussion, but I want to keep this on-topic.
Archive
The Democrats want an Obama-level turnout for the black vote this year, which is why they went all in on #BlackLivesMatter after Floyd died and hoped that it would not lose steam. The black vote fell substantially in 2016 (archive), the lowest since the start of the century (assuming 2000 counts as part of the 20th century), which indicates that after the disappointment that was Obama, a lot lost faith in the Democrats making their lives better. Most stayed home but a few went to Trump. Democratic elites smelled an opportunity to ensure a
They emphasize the black vote so much this year because the DNC believes, reasonably so, that the non-whites will fall in no matter what they do. The low turnouts among Hispanics and Asians doesn't matter because they assume that in due time, there will be enough voters anyway to turn the country into a far left, one-party regime anyway. So they're putting them on the backside because to them, 2020 is an opportunity to achieve the ultimate victory sooner rather than later and no voting block is more dependable than the blacks.
The possibility that a non-white voting group might turn purple again does not occur to the DNC. Blacks and Asians used to vote mostly Republican (at least for the latter if you go by 1992 demographics in voting) and yet are now mostly Democratic voters. They assume, reasonably so, that the changing demographics benefits them and only them. Why do you think that they have thrown policy to the side and focused so much on identity politics and COVID-19?
It won't change unless we see a shift to purple (like how white voters are purple-red) from either the blacks, Hispanics, or Asians voting block. Which, as @Hangly pointed out in the Articles & Happening's RNC Watch thread, might be starting to happen. Personally, I believe Trump will lose if at least two of the demographics non-whites don't trend redder this years as I doubt the white vote will change much (like one or two percent gap increase at best, but that percentage is declining). If he wins, we might be seeing a trend.
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