2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Bass]

Isn't this a constitutional crisis in its own right? Who in the right mind would think a mere Congresscritter is fit to represent the entire United States?

EDIT: Another thing came to mind: Isn't the president technically elected via the electoral college. Ie. the states send representatives, and those representatives are the ones that determine who's the president and vice president. Regardless of whether or not the results in any number of states are disputed, don't they have to vote, regardless?

Yes, the EC meets on a specific day and votes regardless.

 

[heyitsmike]

One other useful thing these riots do is nationalize all the down ballot races.

In Montana, for example, Steve Bullock is running for Senate. He was a fairly popular Democrat governor. People may have been tempted to vote for him based on his past record, which would lose the GOP a Senate seat.

But these riots have clearly shown that Democrats are complete trash, from President to dogcatcher and everything in between.

 

[Salubrious]

One other useful thing these riots do is nationalize all the down ballot races.

In Montana, for example, Steve Bullock is running for Senate. He was a fairly popular Democrat governor. People may have been tempted to vote for him based on his past record, which would lose the GOP a Senate seat.

But these riots have clearly shown that Democrats are complete trash, from President to dogcatcher and everything in between.

Ironically the reason why the DNC didn't want to throw Bernie out there. They are probably going to lose the downballot anyway due to the riots.

 

[Syaoran Li]

I feel like there's a lot of Blue states in play this year.

Minnesota. Oregon.

I can't find the poll myself, so this is probably bullshit, but it's interesting at least. And I had to leave the meme in.

View attachment 1555048

Minnesota's definitely in play this year, and I think Virginia is in play too but it's going to be a lot harder of a sell.

Oregon and New York are probably not in play but if Trump and the GOP can really get some major ground game, there's a chance that Oregon can flip red and New York will at least break the 40% vote threshold at the very least. Depending on how depressed voter turnout is in NYC, Long Island, and Westchester County vs. how energized Republicans and swing voters are over in upstate New York, I think New York has a slim but non-negligible chance of going red.

If Trump wins and takes Minnesota, that'll be a massive blow to the DNC's ego. If Trump wins and not only wins Minnesota but can manage to flip Virginia or possibly Oregon as well, then it will be a truly demoralizing moment for all the wings of the Democratic Party.

I think Trump will likely win Minnesota and I'd say he's got a 50/50 shot at winning Virginia since it all depends on a higher and more energized turnout in the majority of the state and a lower turnout of voters in Richmond and Northern Virginia. Most of Virginia is pretty right-wing or moderate once you get west of the Fall Line with the only blue strongholds being the college towns while the Roanoke Valley, the Southside (Danville, Martinsville, etc.) and the Staunton-Waynesboro area in the Shenandoah Valley all are pretty purple to varying degrees.

Lynchburg is one of the few areas west of the Fall Line that's both decently populated and fairly conservative (it's Jerry Falwell's own backyard) as opposed to a swing area like Roanoke or the majority-black cities in the Southside.

Given all the pissed-off counties that were already against the Democrat gun laws and the overall unpopularity of Northam outside the Richmond and NoVA strongholds, I would not be surprised if a lot of formerly complacent voters get out and do what they can to vote in Trump for 2020 and vote out the Dems in 2021. However, it would all depend on not just a high turnout in the red counties but also a low turnout in the DC suburbs and the Richmond areas.

Oregon is unlikely to flip just because the counties east of the Cascades are even more thinly populated than the counties in Virginia that are west of the Fall Line. But again, if enough of the people in the Portland area are pissed off at Antifa and Ted Wheeler that they vote Trump in, then I think maybe Oregon would flip but it's less likely than Virginia and especially Minnesota

 

[2021Murder]

I've always wondered. Why is Election DAY only 1 day? Why not a few days or a week? You can even start it the Wednesday before so the week still ends on the traditional Tuesday.

If it HAS to be one day for some reason, why not make it a federal holiday so people that work can vote easier? I mean, I think legally employers have to allow employees to go on break so they can vote, but realistically most of the hourly service jobs won't allow for it and just come up with some other excuse.

Or, maybe this is a bad idea, just make Election Day and Veterans Day the same day so people already have the day off?

If it was a holiday what would keep people from just fucking off to the bar like they do every other holiday?

Its the same reason its not on the weekend or any other day, there was enough common sense and research in the 1780s to show people are the least likely to fuck off and go to the bar/tavern on tuesday.

Also its hilarious how 4 years ago people talked about the "Blue wall" from 92 to 12 they voted blue, it was a forgone conclusion now they're all swing states

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Can't wait for the dems to figure out Oregon is going red only a week or two before the election and they try and stop it. This isn't ending well for the left. I think Oregon goes red this year or in 2024.
Imma agree with you. Like, Trump knows what's up. He's aware of the potential. He's just waiting for the Dems to get too cocky and announce some shit about how vote by mail is definitely happening and then Trump springs some shit on them that he's got top men in the swing states and blue strongholds making sure nothing fucky happens. Or makes up some controverys and springs an EO into action to prevent VBM from happening this year while no one is looking.

You're guys with the rainbows are acting like Trump is a retard. He's aware and working on it. There's alot going on. Government is slow sometimes. I mean, the FBI just took out a bunch of antifa operatives today. It take time my dudes.

e: you don't tell your enemy what your plans are. You move in position and wait to spring the trap. Trump won't tell the public what these plans are to prevent voter fraud until its too late for the dems to do anything. We won't hear about it until a few days or a week or so from election day.

You have to think about it strategically. It's more about who's in charge in swing states than legislating after the fact. Nevada, for instance, is probably fucked due to impending ballot fraud. It makes more sense to focus on Pennsylvania (which will have its own problems), the rust belt, and New Hampshire to flips states, while keeping Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Michigan might be fucked because Whitmer is in charge keeping things "secure," though overwhelming support will drown out fraud, so nothing is a given.

 

[Salubrious]

You have to think about it strategically. It's more about who's in charge in swing states than legislating after the fact. Nevada, for instance, is probably fucked due to impending ballot fraud. It makes more sense to focus on Pennsylvania (which will have its own problems), the rust belt, and New Hampshire to flips states, while keeping Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Michigan might be fucked because Whitmer is in charge keeping things "secure," though overwhelming support will drown out fraud, so nothing is a given.

One or the other is going to need to be projected for 380+, or we are going to have a massive issue on our hands stretching for months.

 

[FunPosting101]

I feel like there's a lot of Blue states in play this year.

Minnesota. Oregon.

I can't find the poll myself, so this is probably bullshit, but it's interesting at least. And I had to leave the meme in.

View attachment 1555048

I am firmly in the "Trump is probably going to win this thing" camp, but even I think NY going red is more than a bit optimistic. All the RCP polls(Yes, you shouldn't trust them, but you shouldn't completely disregard them, either.) have Biden ahead by double digits with the aggregated number being 26.3 for Biden.

That said, Minnesota is definitely flippable, it only went for Clinton by 1.5 in 2016, and the poll numbers there have been narrowing quite a bit. Biden's lead in the aggregate for Minnesota is only 5.3, so you could very easily see Trump pull off a "surprise" victory there, because Biden's actual lead is probably a fair bit thinner than that when poll fuckery is taken into account.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Trumps speech today was absolute

 

[Ledian]

All in all, this election is going be legendary I think and may even go down in the history books someday. All these events going on: riots, a pandemic, a recession with the potential of spiraling into a depression, explosive political battles. In any other case, the incumbent would be tossed out on their ass but with misstep to misstep, the Dems have made the possibility of that happening hard to see possible.

 

[Salubrious]

Trumps speech today was absolute

I can already tell clicking through it that the main talking point will be no social distancing and no masks.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I can already tell clicking through it that the main talking point will be no social distancing and no masks.

That because they will inwardly seethe about how Biden could never pull a crowd like that and then talk to it for an hour.

 

[tehpope]

Trumps speech today was absolute

Scrubbing through it, seems like Trump is in High Energy mode here. I wish every speech was like this. I'm not a fan of his Presidental type speeches. There's a time and place for those speeches and a time and place for High Energy.

 

[Harvey Danger]

I've always wondered. Why is Election DAY only 1 day? Why not a few days or a week? You can even start it the Wednesday before so the week still ends on the traditional Tuesday.

Apparently, it is also only one day "to prevent information from one state influencing electoral outcomes in another", which made sense in the 1840s.

It still makes sense today. If FL, OH, and PA all voted on the first day, and everyone agreed they're the important swing states, then the outcome could depress voting in other states where it would still make a difference. It could also encourage tactical voting trying to game the system towards or against a 3rd party depending on their results.

As a general political science concern, you don't want people voting past a drop-dead date, because it changes what they are voting on. Think of a "campaign season" as everything the public learns between March to November 3rd. If everyone votes on Nov 3, then everyone has the same amount of information available, and the vote reflects that. But if someone votes on Nov 10th, then new information, scandals, crimes, or promises could be added in the intervening time. Then you have a crisis, because votes for the same slate of candidates "mean" different things.

(That's part of what the Electoral College is there to address--if something comes up between voting and inauguration, the EC can salvage things. This may be particularly important in a year where Biden could have a stroke at any moment.)

And yes, this means that early voting is a terrible idea. If you cast a vote today, you will be lacking the information gained during the debates which haven't happened yet. You won't be taking the October Surprise into account, whatever it is. Your early mail-in vote is a different mandate from someone who votes the same way on Nov 3rd.

The main argument in favor of early voting is that Americans are insane enough to try democracy at a scale of 330 million people, which is a logistical nightmare. With roughly 235 million eligible voters, that becomes nearly physically impossible to pull off on a single day. (That scale can also make democracy itself meaningless, but that's another rant.)

 

[Someone Awful]

View attachment 1555015 View attachment 1555029

Six mayors in the Iron Range of Minnesota (A notoriously blue area) just threw their weight behind Trump for the 2020 election. All of those towns are in the "arrowhead" of the blue region, meaning that Trump jumped deep into the Democratic territory to pull support from the mayors in these towns. It's not as impressive as taking Duluth, but that's definitely interesting.

This is more important than people realize, certainly more than Ted Wheeler showing his abject ignorance towards doing his job and protecting RainbowLand in a state that will likely stay blue. It's also more important than the Trafalgar poll which had Biden barely beat out Trump by a few tenth percentage (archive).

The Iron Range (also goes by Arrowhead Region) compose of Carlton County, St. Louis County, Lake County, and Cook County going clockwise around Lake Superior. While Cook County has occasionally voted for Republicans (as late as 2000 (archive)), the former three are some of the most solid blue counties in the whole nation. Lake County last went for a Republican in 1932 (archive) while Carlton and St. Louis County last went red in 1928 (archive). Most people have lived and died with these three counties being Democratic.

They could also turn red. Carlton, St. Louis, and Lake County all became lighter shades of blue by double digits between 2012 (archive) and 2016 (archive) and while Cook County barely moved, the population is small enough to where a double digit shift that turns the county red is possible. With these endorsements, I expect at least two counties to flip red, which would be unprecedented and the rest to narrow their margin. If they all turned red, that would not shock me.

If Trump can flip these counties red, or at least get close, and make the Hennepin - county seat is Minneapolis - and Ramsey County - county seat is St. Paul - a lighter shade of blue, Minnesota will for the first time in 48 years turn red. Should Minnesota flip with a near double digit percentage that Iowa and Ohio did, it could be a light red state. More importantly, if Trump can somehow keep all of the Rust Belt states he won in 2016 and take the Iron Range, it will symbolize that the blue collar workers have moved to the Republican party, potentially realigning the Midwest except Illinois as a red stronghold.

I wanted Trump to make a strong ground game in Minnesota and I'm glad to see evidence of that. After winning the election, this is the second biggest prize for Trump because of what a Minnesota flip represents. I'd say that the odds are in his favor of taking the state and my next prediction map come September will reflect exactly that.

 

[mindlessobserver]

This is more important than people realize, certainly more than Ted Wheeler showing his abject ignorance towards doing his job and protecting RainbowLand in a state that will likely stay blue. It's also more important than the Trafalgar poll which had Biden barely beat out Trump by a few tenth percentage (archive).

The Iron Range (also goes by Arrowhead Region) compose of Carlton County, St. Louis County, Lake County, and Cook County going clockwise around Lake Superior. While Cook County has occasionally voted for Republicans (as late as 2000 (archive)), the former three are some of the most solid blue counties in the whole nation. Lake County last went for a Republican in 1932 (archive) while Carlton and St. Louis County last went red in 1928 (archive). Most people have lived and died with these three counties being Democratic.

They could also turn red. Carlton, St. Louis, and Lake County all became lighter shades of blue by double digits between 2012 (archive) and 2016 (archive) and while Cook County barely moved, the population is small enough to where a double digit shift that turns the county red is possible. With these endorsements, I expect at least two counties to flip red, which would be unprecedented and the rest to narrow their margin. If they all turned red, that would not shock me.

If Trump can flip these counties red, or at least get close, and make the Hennepin - county seat is Minneapolis - and Ramsey County - county seat is St. Paul - a lighter shade of blue, Minnesota will for the first time in 48 years turn red. Should Minnesota flip with a near double digit percentage that Iowa and Ohio did, it could be a light red state. More importantly, if Trump can somehow keep all of the Rust Belt states he won in 2016 and take the Iron Range, it will symbolize that the blue collar workers have moved to the Republican party, potentially realigning the Midwest except Illinois as a red stronghold.

I wanted Trump to make a strong ground game in Minnesota and I'm glad to see evidence of that. After winning the election, this is the second biggest prize for Trump because of what a Minnesota flip represents. I'd say that the odds are in his favor of taking the state and my next prediction map come September will reflect exactly that.

The real crown jewel remains California though. That State has been taken for granted by the Democrats for decades now and it is showing for it. Lots of Republican voters historically dont even bother, but with how agitated things are right now it may very well be in play. If Minnesota is turning red, pretty much anything that is not Oregon and Washington could be fair game. Like New York too since we are on the subject.

We need a decisive victory here to avert social catastrophe. Biden certainly wont deliver it. If he wins it will be by a frighteningly narrow margin. Only trump seems to have the energy behind him to actually ram home a landslide necessary to establish his mandate beyond all doubt. Holding his previous wins and adding Minnesota, New York and California to them would do that.

We can dream.

 

[Harvey Danger]

This is more important than people realize, certainly more than Ted Wheeler showing his abject ignorance towards doing his job and protecting RainbowLand in a state that will likely stay blue. It's also more important than the Trafalgar poll which had Biden barely beat out Trump by a few tenth percentage (archive).

The Iron Range (also goes by Arrowhead Region) compose of Carlton County, St. Louis County, Lake County, and Cook County going clockwise around Lake Superior. While Cook County has occasionally voted for Republicans (as late as 2000 (archive)), the former three are some of the most solid blue counties in the whole nation. Lake County last went for a Republican in 1932 (archive) while Carlton and St. Louis County last went red in 1928 (archive). Most people have lived and died with these three counties being Democratic.

They could also turn red. Carlton, St. Louis, and Lake County all became lighter shades of blue by double digits between 2012 (archive) and 2016 (archive) and while Cook County barely moved, the population is small enough to where a double digit shift that turns the county red is possible. With these endorsements, I expect at least two counties to flip red, which would be unprecedented and the rest to narrow their margin. If they all turned red, that would not shock me.

If Trump can flip these counties red, or at least get close, and make the Hennepin - county seat is Minneapolis - and Ramsey County - county seat is St. Paul - a lighter shade of blue, Minnesota will for the first time in 48 years turn red. Should Minnesota flip with a near double digit percentage that Iowa and Ohio did, it could be a light red state. More importantly, if Trump can somehow keep all of the Rust Belt states he won in 2016 and take the Iron Range, it will symbolize that the blue collar workers have moved to the Republican party, potentially realigning the Midwest except Illinois as a red stronghold.

I wanted Trump to make a strong ground game in Minnesota and I'm glad to see evidence of that. After winning the election, this is the second biggest prize for Trump because of what a Minnesota flip represents. I'd say that the odds are in his favor of taking the state and my next prediction map come September will reflect exactly that.

I'd like to make a request: once we get the results after election day, run this same analysis on those counties again, and see how this region came out. Tack it on to this thread if we don't make another place to analyze results.

There's a handful of swing regions like this that I'm tracking, and whether Trump wins or loses, looking at all of them will tell an interesting story of where the nation is going.

 

[SmugAutist]

The real crown jewel remains California though. That State has been taken for granted by the Democrats for decades now and it is showing for it. Lots of Republican voters historically dont even bother, but with how agitated things are right now it may very well be in play. If Minnesota is turning red, pretty much anything that is not Oregon and Washington could be fair game. Like New York too since we are on the subject.

We need a decisive victory here to avert social catastrophe. Biden certainly wont deliver it. If he wins it will be by a frighteningly narrow margin. Only trump seems to have the energy behind him to actually ram home a landslide necessary to establish his mandate beyond all doubt. Holding his previous wins and adding Minnesota, New York and California to them would do that.

We can dream.

Even if every Republican showed up to vote and several Democrats switched over, California Democrats can still count on their most loyal voter base.

The cemeteries.

 

[Cubanodun]

Apparently, it is also only one day "to prevent information from one state influencing electoral outcomes in another", which made sense in the 1840s.

Considering that bussing people is a tactic that the dems like it still makes sense, dont give them time to cheat

How much do you want to bet that Antifags are prepping to go to these towns and start trying to start shit in the next 24 hours for daring to support orange man

So they want those places going full crimson red? fine by me, even CNN is trying to make them dissapear because no one like those race baiters looting and being a annoyance

 

[XYZpdq]

Even if every Republican showed up to vote and several Democrats switched over, California Democrats can still count on their most loyal voter base.

The cemeteries.

To be fair the dems have been pretty disrespectful to memorials to the dead lately so even reliable bases like that may be in play.