2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Driftwood]

I would be far more suspicious if Biden won. I do not know anyone who is voting for him. I have never seen a Biden yard sign or bumpersticker. I was suspicious when he became the D candidate. I never heard anyone talk about him then either.

 

[Sped Xing]

I spotted a Biden sign yesterday!

It was in front of a very literal known crackhouse. I think it might be a joke.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

tl;dr: "Trump might be winning when we count the votes of normal people, but when we start throwing in fraudulent ballots days later we will be able to pick up votes in the margins."

 

[Ruin]

tl;dr: "Trump might be winning when we count the votes of normal people, but when we start throwing in fraudulent ballots days later we will be able to pick up votes in the margins."

THERE ARE DOZENS OF US! DOZENS!

 

[Milwaukee Macho Man]

In a hilarious turn, BLM/Antifa in a fit of anger at the initial results burn down cities and in the process post offices and postal carriers with the mail in ballots that would have supposedly given them the results they wanted go up in flames.

Then they blame it on the alt right again

 

[Harvey Danger]

The tweet I got this video from is now up to 5.1 million views.

His Anne Frank act is up.

Edit:
View attachment 1563467

It's called proof of life. They're showing the donors that they do have their candidate in the basement, and if they ever want to see the White House again, they better pay up.

 

[Billy_Sama]

I find it hard that Democratics can be self aware on how they blew there chances this election.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Polls suck so hard right now. Get excited for Emerson's Trump +2, but it's an MTurk poll which I know makes it toilet paper.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

In a hilarious turn, BLM/Antifa in a fit of anger at the initial results burn down cities and in the process post offices and postal carriers with the mail in ballots that would have supposedly given them the results they wanted go up in flames.

Then they blame it on the alt right again

Maybe that's why there's suddenly so many articles about the USPS and how important it is to spend billions to save it (it isn't like they've had years and years and even shit like Obama's majority in both houses to raise awareness and solve the problem). They want to put it in the NPC's mind to not loot post offices and mail trucks.

My guess is they'll still try and loot it, but the post offices will either have federal agents guarding them on behalf of the blue cities/states along with the police who will be allowed to use all the force in the world.

 

[Hypnopedosnake2]

The top democrats in the goverment won't listen. They will just scream "MUH RUSSIA" and will just screech for another 4 years-

 

[Wulfpack Legend]

I don't know if this is clever or "hello fellow kids"

Biden campaign launches official Animal Crossing: New Horizons yard signs

And they have more in-game events planned for this fall

www.theverge.com

 

[Harvey Danger]

I've never seen someone blow a lead like Biden. Covid and Floyd nearly finished Trump (he admits to the former, iirc). I swear the Dems have set him up to be worse than McGovern and Mondale, but he'll do better because "Not Trump" and candidate with a (D) next to his name.

Well, it's not unprecedented. It's just out of modern memory.



Not coincidentally, that happened after a problematic Democratic VP pick as well. Except that time, the VP was the mentally unwell one, not the candidate himself.

 

[Comandante Marcos]

The other side: “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in response.

Bingo. I don't think ANYBODY watches the election night MSM bullshitting fest except maybe some elderly boomers who still trust the media because Walter Cronkite told the truth. At this point it's just one big REEEEEEEEEEEsperg blowout that serves the purpose of letting people who love to talk listen to themselves talk for hours on end as a big narcissistic ego boost. TV should just play their usual schedule of unreality TV and CIA-scripted military dramas on election night and then wait until 5 am on Wednesday morning to update the public.

 

[MrJokerRager]

In a hilarious turn, BLM/Antifa in a fit of anger at the initial results burn down cities and in the process post offices and postal carriers with the mail in ballots that would have supposedly given them the results they wanted go up in flames.

Then they blame it on the alt right again

It's like when Muslims do dumb shit that fuck themselves and then blame the Jews.

 

[Judge Holden]

In a hilarious turn, BLM/Antifa in a fit of anger at the initial results burn down cities and in the process post offices and postal carriers with the mail in ballots that would have supposedly given them the results they wanted go up in flames.

Then they blame it on the alt right again

While my apathy at the coming election has rapidly grown in the wake of me finally grasping how little anybody in team democrat or the obnoxious woke sphere actually cares about the shit they talk about, including their supposed hatred and fear of drumpf, I do still believe that those who actually call the shots behind scenes in democrat land, be they lobbyists or deep state speds or the fucking elders of zion, need to be given whatever punishment a second electoral defeat will bring them, either for pushing this edgelord wokesped shit in the firstplace or for not nipping it in the bud sooner when they had the chance to stop shit turning so fucking canceorus.

 

[Someone Awful]

South Florida - everyone's telling stories about Latinos vs Cubans, 3rd generation Hispanic kids, etc. I want to see how the trend plays out in the most well-defined bastion of non-Mexican Latinos.

Arlington/Richmond Virginia - these are the spots turning VA blue. But they just had a terrible year with the state legislature. I want to see if it cracks the blue trend.

Portland and Seattle - obvious reasons. Will local anger at local Democrats translate into national voting? Not a flip, but a lesser shade of blue? If not, then Oregon isn't turning red, and Seattle is going to start bleeding talent.

Minneapolis - same as above, except in a state I expect the GOP to be competitive in.

Southeast Michigan - Detroit and suburbs were the big driver of votes for Hillary, Trump won most of the rest of the state. If Biden keeps Hillary's numbers in that region, then even if Trump wins the whole state, that keeps MI as a light blue state in my book unless 2024 candidates replicate his MAGA agenda.

Watching Maine to see if it splits again, and NYC to see if the city actually drained away its votes. I think the big problem with this analysis is going to be where those NYC refugees fled to. I'm hearing anecdotes of them winding up in FL and TX, which is good for those states economically, but you can bet those damn yanks are keeping their blue politics.

South Florida - Cubans are the reason why Florida is still a tossup rather than a deep blue states. Unlike other Hispanics, the majority of Cubans voted Trump over Clinton (archive) in the 2016 election, which helped him win that crucial state. The 2018 election also barely kept the governor seat (archive) and got Rick Scott to flip a Democratic Senate seat (archive). Notably, that was one of four 2018 races where Hispanics voted 45% and over for a Republican candidates but given that the other two examples (Hogan for Maryland 2018 gubernatorial race and Baker for gubernatorial race) are either RINOs and/or had exceptionally poor Democratic candidates in deep blue states, those barely count. The Florida races, on the other hand, show that Cubans are a crucial swing block Republicans need to win that state. Why do you think the RNC had an old Cuban guy speak to warn of the danger of communism and to announce his support of Trump's re-election? Granted, they're no longer a solid Republican block they used to be (archive), but as long as they remain purple voters, Florida will remain a light red state (of course I am including state and local elections, not just presidential).

As for 3rd generation Hispanics, I did find this. As with all polls, I am skeptical of its reliability, but it does point out that 1st generation immigrants are far more likely to vote for Biden than Trump. 2nd generations - those with parents born in the US - actually are planning to vote for Trump over Biden. 3rd generations actually slightly prefer Biden over Trump. So the peak might actually be 2nd generation, not 3rd and onward. Wouldn't young Cuban voters be mostly 2nd gen though? Regardless, Trump still fares better than with immigrants and 1st generation voters, which is why the Democrats wants to keep importing them to ensure they never lose federal elections again.

Southeast Michigan - The blue counties except Washtenaw actually become a lighter shade of blue (archive) compared to 2012 (archive). We'll see if it gets lighter in urban areas but given how well the Detroit mayor handled the riot, I have a feeling it won't help Trump even if he benefits from it elsewhere.

One thing I noted with all of these settings is that except for the Iron Range, all of the swing regions you mentioned are urban areas. I've been noticing a shift in Trump's campaign towards attracting suburbs and city voters compared to last election if you look at the RNC. Rural voters trend strongly towards Republicans but given that they are on a decline, the party has to figure out how to get city and suburbs voters to vote red and I think Trump recognizes this. The United States is increasingly turning urban which is why Democrats can win a state while losing the vast majority of counties in it. If it weren't for the riots, I wouldn't be sure how to start turning them around but now the riots have provided an ample amount of clips in Democratic ran cities to show how Democrats have failed them. This is the first opportunity in many decades Republicans have to start turning city votes purple and they cannot afford to squander it.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

I've never seen someone blow a lead like Biden. Covid and Floyd nearly finished Trump (he admits to the former, iirc). I swear the Dems have set him up to be worse than McGovern and Mondale, but he'll do better because "Not Trump" and candidate with a (D) next to his name.

Dukakis was +15 on Bush in July 88. Carter was +5 on Reagan in October 80. Gore was +8 in October 2000. McCain was even +4 briefly after tapping Palin. Things can change quickly, usually when Ds are way ahead in polls...

 

[Sweet and Savoury]

The Democrats are preparing the public for their coup. If they prep well enough when they declare Biden really won the election, after weeks of mail in ballots trickling in, they'll have a much better chance of pushing their win through the courts.

 

[DeadFish]

The only way I can think of how the GOP can appeal to urban voters is to constantly goad democratic party into tard rage and troll them into doing stupid stuff over and over. Like thinking riots are a good thing and will win voters over.

In other words the republicans might become masters of the shit post.

 

[UselessIdiot]

Posted this on A&N but I'll post it here:

Article (Archived)
A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.

Why this matters: Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans, due to fears of the coronavirus, and it will take days if not weeks to tally these. This means Trump, thanks to Republicans doing almost all of their voting in person, could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night.

• Imagine America, with its polarization and misinformation, if the vote tally swings wildly toward Joe Biden and Trump loses days later as the mail ballots are counted.
• That is what this group, Hawkfish, which is funded by Michael Bloomberg and also does work for the Democratic National Committee and pro-Biden Super PACs, is warning is a very real, if not foreordained, outcome.

What they're saying: Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn calls the scenario a "red mirage."

• "We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," he said.
• "When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage," Mendelsohn said. "It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.
  
  By the numbers:Under one of the group's modeling scenarios, Trump could hold a projected lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night, if only 15% of the vote by mail (VBM) ballots had been counted.
  • Once 75% of mail ballots were counted, perhaps four days later, the lead could flip to Biden's favor.
  • This particular modeling scenario portrays Biden as ultimately winning a massive victory, 334-204.
  • The methodology, described in detail below, was based in part on polling from FiveThirtyEight in August.
  • The ultimate results may well sit somewhere between these low-end and high-end scenarios and will also be impacted by who actually votes, and how voters' views about their options change over the coming weeks.
    
    The other side: “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in response.
    
    Between the lines: Hawkfish is not just trying to educate the public about the possibility that Trump could prematurely declare victory, or try to delegitimize a Biden victory if it took days or weeks to determine.
    
    
  • The group is also trying to sensitize state and county elections officials, news and social media organizations, and the courts to the perils of premature results — and to the possibility of Trump and his team applying challenges and political pressure to reject a high share of mailed-in ballots counted after election day.
  • And the group is warning voters that rejection rates for mail ballots are higher than in-person voting.
  • To avoid having their votes thrown out, Hawkfish is advising voters to be extra careful about voting early enough and following all the instructions to the letter — or, potentially, putting on masks and gloves and going early either to safely vote in person or return the mail ballot in person.
    
    Methodology: Hawkfish surveyed 17,263 registered voters in 50 states and DC, July 1-Aug. 16, 2020, to assess who people planned to vote for and whether they intend to vote by mail or in person at a polling place.
    
    
  • Responses were filtered for those described as definitely voting or likely to vote and weighted for state and national registered voter demographics.
  • The scenarios assumed votes at polls would be counted on election day itself (Nov. 3). A scenario taking a week to count mail ballots would translate to approximately 15% per day on average.
  • In another scenario, mail ballot counts took four days at 25% per day. For states that have had high vote-by-mail participation rates, Hawkfish assumed they would take two days.

That just sounds like a nightmare. That's why mail-in ballots should be required to be mailed and counted before the election results are released on Election Day.

It's shenanigans like this that leads me to believe Biden will win regardless.