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- May 22, 2019
Given how everything else is made up, you might as well. Mischievous spirits is better than anyone elses explanation for 2016 polls being wrong.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
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- May 25, 2013
MOYAMOYAMOYA I SUMMON YOU OH JEW SPIRIT OF SOME RANDO WHO LIVED IN MY APARTMENT BEFORE MEEEEEE!
DO YOU FEEL VOTING FOR BIDEN IS A PRIORITY FOR YOU!!!!!!
[reply hazy ask again later]
well fuck I tried, sorry
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
The surveys are definitly heavily biased if which make wonder if Trump is getting accurate information. Like I get it socialists will not vote for a Republican let alone bother to register as one. So asking a question like that and similar questions are meaningless if Trump wants to know if he is doing great.
On a side note, I never received any democrat internal poll surveys when I was a registered Democrat during the Obama years and when Bernie was rising during 2016.
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- Jan 23, 2015
The 2016 polls aren't a mystery. Polls always oversample Democrats, people who were going to vote for Trump but were afraid to come out and say it just lied when they were asked, first-time voters don't appear on any voter rolls so they can't be surveyed, and the exit polls didn't line up with what the initial polls were outlining, meaning that a ton of people changed their minds at the very last minute and threw a "fuck it" vote at Trump.
The 2016 polls got mangled for a lot of various reasons, and all of those reasons have been amplified up to 11 this year because nobody involved in the 2016 polls learned anything, which is why they look so painfully similar that even Nate Silver's 538 was predicting literally the exact same statistics from last year.
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- Jul 7, 2020
Nate Bronze doesn't care if he's shoveling shit into his overwrought data analytics, as long as it gives corporate approved percentages and his illustrative team makes cute charts.
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- May 16, 2019
From the "Yeah No Shit" Department:
Didn't see the Dem/GOP sampling breakdown, but if it was over-sampled for Dems like usual, that's a pretty bad number for the Joepedo.
Yeah, it's just Republicans sowing doubt, I can't imagine how citizens would be concerned about burning cities and political shootings on their own.
Didn't see the Dem/GOP sampling breakdown, but if it was over-sampled for Dems like usual, that's a pretty bad number for the Joepedo.
Yeah, it's just Republicans sowing doubt, I can't imagine how citizens would be concerned about burning cities and political shootings on their own.
FruitFever
kiwifarms.net
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- Feb 13, 2020
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
This shit is just golden of how much butthurt RINOs and Nevertrumpers have for Trump.
JamFlowMan
kiwifarms.net
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- Apr 3, 2017
Personally don't care about the debates effect on campaigns I just want to see Trump do some funny stuff. It doesn't seem hard to get under Biden's skin there have been plenty of videos where he snaps at potential voters who were not confrontational at all, so having to stand on stage while Trump gets in the occasional dig will be fun to watch.
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- Jun 28, 2020
I figure that now would be the best time to ask this. If Trump loses the election, what do you guys plan to do? I think this is important to ask given the implication of a potential Biden/Harris presidency.
Personally, I see only two options, learn a new language and move to a non-cucked country or figure out how to fight the totalitarian one-party regime. Doing the former option is cowardly as all it would be is running away from our nation's problems. Not to mention, who's to say that country won't become a socialist/communist dictatorship anyway? If Trump cannot win this election, we will have no choice but to take matters into our own hand.
I refuse to accept living in a communist woke dystopia the thieves at DNC have planned for us. A world where we cannot hold jobs that we want, cannot choose to be apolitical, cannot better ourselves financially, cannot hold those who burn, loot and murder accountable, and cannot even protect our vulnerable minors from depraved pedophiles is a hell not worth living in. I would sooner die than to accept this new normal. The United States is a country worth fighting for, which I cannot say for anywhere else even ones I like like Japan.
We have never had a candidate lead with over 3% in popular vote in national election and still lose the electoral college. The demographic breakdown would be a bad sign for white voters as Trump would have a four percentage advantage over Biden(50R-46D). He also is five points behind Biden in independent votes and those carried him the last election. This would mean he has lost the white working class and it would likely cost him Rust Belt states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Possibly Ohio too, but the double digit black population might save the state in this scenario.
On the other hand, the poll shows him doing exceptionally well among Asian, Hispanic, and especially African-American voters. 41% of Hispanic voters, 37% of Asian voters, and 28% of black voters is much better than either the Republicans or Democrats expect Trump to do. This would lock the South down as quite a few states have a high Hispanic and/or African-American population and put Virginia in play for Trump as that too has a high non-white population. Furthermore, it locks down Arizona and Texas, states that will be critical to Trump's victory and puts New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe Colorado in play.
We would be looking at a map that is similar to the 2000 and 2004 election give or take a few states. That said, I'm not expecting a jump that high in nonwhite votes or a drop that low for white votes. Just an interesting exercise.
Personally, I see only two options, learn a new language and move to a non-cucked country or figure out how to fight the totalitarian one-party regime. Doing the former option is cowardly as all it would be is running away from our nation's problems. Not to mention, who's to say that country won't become a socialist/communist dictatorship anyway? If Trump cannot win this election, we will have no choice but to take matters into our own hand.
I refuse to accept living in a communist woke dystopia the thieves at DNC have planned for us. A world where we cannot hold jobs that we want, cannot choose to be apolitical, cannot better ourselves financially, cannot hold those who burn, loot and murder accountable, and cannot even protect our vulnerable minors from depraved pedophiles is a hell not worth living in. I would sooner die than to accept this new normal. The United States is a country worth fighting for, which I cannot say for anywhere else even ones I like like Japan.
Apparently AtlasIntel is reliable but as with all polls, I will take it with a grain of salt. It is interesting to look at though.
We have never had a candidate lead with over 3% in popular vote in national election and still lose the electoral college. The demographic breakdown would be a bad sign for white voters as Trump would have a four percentage advantage over Biden(50R-46D). He also is five points behind Biden in independent votes and those carried him the last election. This would mean he has lost the white working class and it would likely cost him Rust Belt states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Possibly Ohio too, but the double digit black population might save the state in this scenario.
On the other hand, the poll shows him doing exceptionally well among Asian, Hispanic, and especially African-American voters. 41% of Hispanic voters, 37% of Asian voters, and 28% of black voters is much better than either the Republicans or Democrats expect Trump to do. This would lock the South down as quite a few states have a high Hispanic and/or African-American population and put Virginia in play for Trump as that too has a high non-white population. Furthermore, it locks down Arizona and Texas, states that will be critical to Trump's victory and puts New Mexico, Nevada, and maybe Colorado in play.
We would be looking at a map that is similar to the 2000 and 2004 election give or take a few states. That said, I'm not expecting a jump that high in nonwhite votes or a drop that low for white votes. Just an interesting exercise.
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- May 25, 2013
I work in Conservative Media so it's either cash in on being assblasted over them winning or neck myself because they're really as bad as we pretend they are.
Honka Honka Burning Love
In Clown World, the only god is the one who Honks.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
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Hope Texas stays True if things go to shite.
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I refuse to answer glow nigger bait
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That's an interesting analysis, but I was more curious about why polls like that don't get added to the RCP average when stuff like Quinnipac and the NYTimes/Siena poll do, and I personally think/suspect that the reason why is because those polls aren't heavily biased for Biden. There's been other polls from The Democracy Institute and Zogby Analytics that also aren't included in the average and, again, those polls are less biased against Trump then the big names from more liberal sources are.
Generally speaking, I agree with Tarl Warwick(AKA Styxhexenhammer)about polls, you should rely on an aggregate of polls, but the problem is that I fear the aggregate is becoming increasingly tainted with biased inputs in favor of one candidate. Ideally you would get all sorts of information from conservative, centrist and liberal pollsters and that would produce a reasonably accurate aggregate.
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- Dec 13, 2019
RCP does include Rasmussen which is undeniably biased for Republicans. It's just that they include a lot more D biased polls. The weighting for some of these is unquestionably laughable. Really, if this election is like D+15, why are we doing polls? Why would Trump even try? I think the only way to get anything out of polls is try reading the trends and base opinions on that.
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- Jul 20, 2020
If Trump loses, I think I'll just check out of politics except locally. If the majority of voters want the Democratic Party's insane faggoty, then they get what they vote for.
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- Oct 21, 2019
That AtlasIntel data corresponds with the rough trend I'm noticing regarding Coronavirus response: that people seemingly consider Coronavirus a higher priority over economic downfall, and would prefer if the lockdowns and social distancing policies were strengthened.
These are... not beliefs Donald Trump sides with. An overwhelming majority think he hasn't been handling it well, additionally.
Much as I don't care for polls as representative chunks of political populations in general, not sounding pretty good. Just makes me think people are nuts enough for Biden.
The optimist in me, however, will point out that just because people say Covid is more important than the economy doesn't mean they actually believe that, in practice. Just a gut feeling, but looking at the protests, opening of businesses, and normal life, most people don't actually act like the world needs to pause for this virus. This means that, when push comes to shove, this overinflated talk about Covid will give way to voting for who will affect their wallet the best.
These are... not beliefs Donald Trump sides with. An overwhelming majority think he hasn't been handling it well, additionally.
Much as I don't care for polls as representative chunks of political populations in general, not sounding pretty good. Just makes me think people are nuts enough for Biden.
The optimist in me, however, will point out that just because people say Covid is more important than the economy doesn't mean they actually believe that, in practice. Just a gut feeling, but looking at the protests, opening of businesses, and normal life, most people don't actually act like the world needs to pause for this virus. This means that, when push comes to shove, this overinflated talk about Covid will give way to voting for who will affect their wallet the best.
MrJokerRager
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- Nov 2, 2019
Just hope the GOP win or hold the house and senate if Trump loses to Biden.
Otherwise Obama 2.0 and more insane shit. And this country will deserve it. I will unironically believe that the white race. maybe deserves to die as I am pretty sure all those eugenics guys that believed in Social Darwinism, would agree that a nation that lets a fucktard like Joe Biden win after being held hostage by rioters and amoral politicians, you know what, let it burn and let the white race die and suffer. The white guilt is getting tiresome and what is needed is a culling if some weaklings are allowed to thrive as the blacks, browns and asians for the most part may like guilty whites but don't respect them or give a shit about them. They got their own shit to worry about rather than worry about some white soy cuck.
One a side note, this is a neccessary viewing about the state of NeverTrumpers.
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- Aug 11, 2020
Alright fat, here's the deal.
The problem with polling is twofold from how I understand. The first is with the sampling and the second is due to our hyper-partisan climate.
The first is sampling. Typically, mostly postgraduates in high density urban areas are the ones answering polls. Here is a map of replys via Epoch Times polling.
Some polls for example have post graduates at around 30% of the electorate. They were 18% in 2018 and 17% in 2016. Complete bullshit.
The darker dots/higher response rates are focused around cities. You are not getting Joe plumber from north Minnesota usually, aka Trump's base of middle class white Rust Belters, and in not enough numbers to make a rational view of the electorate. So they usually mangle it for national polling by stating "Oh certain Hispanics from Commiefornia and NY are this way, Florida and New Mexico are that way, here's the Hispanic support for each candidate on a national scale." It oversimplifies shit and ignores context of the electorate. Floridian hispanics are the most conservative in the country. Lumping them with others heavily skews data. This, when coupled with dozens of other groupings, leads to unreliable polling. State by state may vary, but are usually worse due to being done by lower end firms with less standardized practices.
For reference: there was one poll who sampled that the Republican base was 37% non-Hispanic white. Ignoring mutt memes, shit is insane and inaccurate.
Number 2: hyperpartisanship is apparently as bad as the 1800s. People who identify as Democrat will vote D and people who identify as Republican vote Trump. Obvious, but when you have polls with "registered voters" which skews Democrat because there are more registered in most states, each point less of Republican representation is about 1 point less of Trump support. This would be alievated by using "likely voters" but that requires guessing turnout. Some firms have an expectation that there will be 180 million votes with a 30% new electorate of people who haven't voted before (zoomers/millenials). These insane numbers also skew Democrat, and are also completely insane because there only 220 million registered voters in 2016. We are talking if Obama and Reagan fused, there wouldn't be this much fucking turnout. When you break it down to 2016 levels where about each party is 1/3 of the electorate, Biden's lead evaporates to 3-4 points.
Internal polling is also apparently better due to costing more to do/better methodology/ I don't fucking know.
TL;DR? Polls are harder then "lol look at number drumph done." Vote. Nervous and in a swing state? Volunteer.
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- May 19, 2018
If you'll permit me to add some Based Dilbert Man commentary: predicting complex systems is extremely hard. In 2016, we saw how all the smartest people, using all the best toys, were comprehensively wrong about an election with a binary outcome.
There's also the fact that nobody who's in any way professionally connected to the media/entertainment hegemony can allow themselves to be seen as providing any kind of aid and comfort to Trump and his supporters. Remember that poor fucker who got unpersoned for say, "historically, riots aren't great for Democrats." Hell, I've seen a gay porn star, of all people, issue as gun-to-his head endorsement of BLM after previously saying "man, this politics stuff is stupid, I'm out" because the hive mind is THAT bent on being the only game in town. Does anyone believe you can do honest business with, say, the New York Times (the paper that just defenestrated it's editor for publishing an editorial from a sitting US Senator) if the numbers don't say exactly what the Times want them to say?
As far as Nate Tin goes, he's a relic of the "big data" fad of the mid-2010s. He got his start in baseball statistics, which are wildly different from elections and polling. Think about it this way: as far as I know, an American baseball game can't end without a bare minimum of 52 pitches being thrown (51 fly-outs and 1 home run.) There's over 100 games in a standard MLB season. This means that you have a huge amount of data to sift through as any given event occurs repeatedly across multiple teams and parks. Presidential elections, OTOH, are once every 4 years. It's an extremely low-frequency event and a lot changes between each one, so it doesn't lend itself to diluting out the junk data the way baseball stats or other high-frequency events do.
I'm not gonna say the polls are straight-up bullshit, but this isn't baseball: they're an attempt to predict the future, not things in themselves that somehow add up to the final result on election day.
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