2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Someone Awful]

He paid to have several of his channel's ads stickied at the top of youtube for every day of both parties' conventions. It attracted a lot of attention, and generated quite a bit of salt. Certainly wouldn't rule out some botting, though.




28k live viewers on Fox's stream and nearly 50k on RSBN. Unreal numbers for a simple campaign rally.

Fox News is at 42K now. RSNB is at 49K. How big are campaign rallies usually are?

Edit: Now at 45K and 50K. I expect the Fox News livestream will soon surpass the RSNB. Any other livestreams to note?

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

Fox News is at 42K now. RSNB is at 49K. How big are campaign rallies usually are?

His last few rallies were around 25k on RSBN. I know his Oklahoma rally got nearly a million views overnight, but that was his first rally in a few months.

 

[Someone Awful]

His last few rallies were around 25k on RSBN. I know his Oklahoma rally got nearly a million views overnight, but that was his first rally in a few months.

I see. There's also these live streams if people want to keep up with numbers,

62K Fox News
51K Right Side Broadcasting Network
3.3K PBS NewsHour
5.7K Bloomberg QuickTake News
26K NewsNOW From FOX
1.6K The Hill

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

Everytime I see talk of Arizona going blue, I get a feeling of deja vu because they were saying that too back in 2016 yet Trump won in the end. Trump's margin will be bigger in Arizona this year, and Trump's coattails will bring downballot Republicans to the finish line (such as Martha McSally).

Everything but the last part makes sense to me. As much as I want McSally to win, by every metric I can compare her to Mark Kelly, the Democrat's real wunderkind, he has an absurd lead.

Starting with the most important indicator IMO, preliminary votes: Mark Kelly won an uncontested primary by a total of 665,620 votes. For comparison, this is more than Hilary and Trump won their primary runs combined, and more than Sinema won her primary by over 200,000 votes. In a contested Republican primary, McSally sweeped... with 551,119 votes.

Then there's social media engagement. Mark Kelly has nearly double the Twitter followers and far more Twitter engagement than McSally. Mark Kelly's website, according to Alexa, is around ranked around #224,000 in most engaged websites. McSally's... is at #1,065,279. For comparison, Trump blew and blows away the engagement of Hillary and Biden.

Finally, fundraising. I don't usually think this matters--money, as far as I've seen, doesn't really correlate with political success. However, Mark Kelly, whether legitimately or not, has at least $10 million dollar donation lead over McSally.

I say all this not because I want Kelly to win (he's a snake in sheep's clothing), or because I think Trump will lose Arizona. I think his chances are about even with Biden right now but will grow as time goes on. My conclusion is that McSally can't be boosted by Trump's general popularity; meanwhile, Biden can't be boosted by Kelly's abnormal popularity.

Arizona's turning purple, at least outside the presidential elections.

 

[Someone Awful]

Trump also mentioned Black Lives Matter in the Pennsylvania rally today. I'm sure he's referred it by the name, right? Also mentioned #MeToo just about now.

Edit: Finally he talks about mail-in ballot. Notably, Fox News livestream reached 80K when he talked about it. Doesn't go into any new details that I am familiar with though. About seventy-five minutes into the live stream. Criticizes the way Democratic handles mail-in ballots.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Everything but the last part makes sense to me. As much as I want McSally to win, by every metric I can compare her to Mark Kelly, the Democrat's real wunderkind, he has an absurd lead.

Starting with the most important indicator IMO, preliminary votes: Mark Kelly won an uncontested primary by a total of 665,620 votes. For comparison, this is more than Hilary and Trump won their primary runs combined, and more than Sinema won her primary by over 200,000 votes. In a contested Republican primary, McSally sweeped... with 551,119 votes.

Then there's social media engagement. Mark Kelly has nearly double the Twitter followers and far more Twitter engagement than McSally. Mark Kelly's website, according to Alexa, is around ranked around #224,000 in most engaged websites. McSally's... is at #1,065,279. For comparison, Trump blew and blows away the engagement of Hillary and Biden.

Finally, fundraising. I don't usually think this matters--money, as far as I've seen, doesn't really correlate with political success. However, Mark Kelly, whether legitimately or not, has at least $10 million dollar donation lead over McSally.

I say all this not because I want Kelly to win (he's a snake in sheep's clothing), or because I think Trump will lose Arizona. I think his chances are about even with Biden right now but will grow as time goes on. My conclusion is that McSally can't be boosted by Trump's general popularity; meanwhile, Biden can't be boosted by Kelly's abnormal popularity.

Arizona's turning purple, at least outside the presidential elections.

An astronaut versus a pilot.

Does Mark Kelly's gun control views influence the race though since Arizona is the most Pro 2A state in the union beyond Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Alaska and Idaho. And Bloomberg has his claws in Arizona as well. Some democratic spics tried to push gun control there as well. I guess it depends on Californian immigrants and Hispanicx/Latinx crowd to give Mark Kelly the win.

If Arizona gets cucked on guns though, I think only the Supreme Court or some other Red State just nullifies all gun control to save the 2nd amendment.

 

[GuntPunt]

I see. There's also these live streams if people want to keep up with numbers,

62K Fox News
51K Right Side Broadcasting Network
3.3K PBS NewsHour
5.7K Bloomberg QuickTake News
26K NewsNOW From FOX
1.6K The Hill

Crowd:

Overflow:

Extreme Enthusiasm gap: +20

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

An astronaut versus a pilot.

Does Mark Kelly's gun control views influence the race though since Arizona is the most Pro 2A state in the union beyond Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Alaska and Idaho. And Bloomberg has his claws in Arizona as well. Some democratic spics tried to push gun control there as well. I guess it depends on Californian immigrants and Hispanicx/Latinx crowd to give Mark Kelly the win.

If Arizona gets cucked on guns though, I think only the Supreme Court or some other Red State just nullifies all gun control to save the 2nd amendment.

I think that, Kelly's Chinese connections, and some of that Trump approved angel dust are the main things keeping McSally afloat. Gun sales have skyrockted in Arizona... but it's a shame that Kelly's being hush hush about his real views on guns, and McSally is still considered a wishy-washer Neocon, even though she's slowly shifted to Trump's policies. Also, unlike Trump, she doesn't have the "No fucks given" attitude necessary to circumvent the massive media bias against her.

Hate to say it, but even the ghost of McCain continues to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republican party.

Edit: This Pennsylvania rally is one of Trump's best! He's acting like a fucking comedian--I'd argue he has more life when proclaiming his accomplishments and greater jabs against Biden than even in the RNC.

 

[legalkochi]

-snip-

On the other hand, operatives in both parties have said that the Martha McSally vs. Mark Kelly race is a lot closer than what public polling shows. And as for the preliminary votes, even in that contested Republican primary, the total amount of votes still comes out to be 732,630 votes, which is a lot more than what Mark Kelly had gotten in his uncontested primary. Most of the people who voted for her opponent in the primary will vote for McSally as the alternative is worse.

You know what this race reminds me of? It reminds me of a couple of races. One being the Senate election in Wisconsin in 2016 between Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold, and the other being the Senate race in Missouri in 2016 between Roy Blunt and Jason Kander.

A lot of polls in Wisconsin's race had Russ Feingold in the lead, and only a few polls had Ron Johnson in the lead, albeit by a very narrow margin of like 1%. A lot of the pollsters were predicting that race to be a Democratic flip. The actual result turned out to be a Republican hold for Ron Johnson, getting 50.2% of the votes compared to Russ Feingold getting 46.8%. At this similar point four years ago, the polls had Russ Feingold leading Ron Johnson 54%-41%.

Johnson wasn't exactly popular either, yet he managed to win by a respectable margin in the end.

As for the Missouri race, Jason Kander seemed like one of the better candidates the Missouri Democrats had recruited for the election that year. Moderate, and there were a few polls showing him leading the Republican incumbent by 6 or 7 points. The actual result was 49.2% for the Republican incumbent vs Democrat Jason Kander getting 46.4%

There have already been articles released last month that talked about Martha McSally narrowing the gap, and what I think will happen is that the "absurd lead" Kelly has right now will tighten considerably as we get closer to the election.

Again, it's all dependent on which candidate's supporters will turn out the most vs the other candidate's supporters. Maybe if Joe Biden wasn't headlining the ticket, Mark Kelly may had a slimmer of a chance. But Trump's coattails are a very powerful thing and that's why I believe Martha McSally will win in the end.

 

[Someone Awful]

Trump spoke for a little less than ninety minutes and it ended with a YMCA.

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

On the other hand, operatives in both parties have said that the Martha McSally vs. Mark Kelly race is a lot closer than what public polling shows. And as for the preliminary votes, even in that contested Republican primary, the total amount of votes still comes out to be 732,630 votes, which is a lot more than what Mark Kelly had gotten in his uncontested primary. Most of the people who voted for her opponent in the primary will vote for McSally as the alternative is worse.

You know what this race reminds me of? It reminds me of a couple of races. One being the Senate election in Wisconsin in 2016 between Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold, and the other being the Senate race in Missouri in 2016 between Roy Blunt and Jason Kander.

A lot of polls in Wisconsin's race had Russ Feingold in the lead, and only a few polls had Ron Johnson in the lead, albeit by a very narrow margin of like 1%. A lot of the pollsters were predicting that race to be a Democratic flip. The actual result turned out to be a Republican hold for Ron Johnson, getting 50.2% of the votes compared to Russ Feingold getting 46.8%. At this similar point four years ago, the polls had Russ Feingold leading Ron Johnson 54%-41%.

Johnson wasn't exactly popular either, yet he managed to win by a respectable margin in the end.

As for the Missouri race, Jason Kander seemed like one of the better candidates the Missouri Democrats had recruited for the election that year. Moderate, and there were a few polls showing him leading the Republican incumbent by 6 or 7 points. The actual result was 49.2% for the Republican incumbent vs Democrat Jason Kander getting 46.4%

There have already been articles released last month that talked about Martha McSally narrowing the gap, and what I think will happen is that the "absurd lead" Kelly has right now will tighten considerably as we get closer to the election.

Again, it's all dependent on which candidate's supporters will turn out the most vs the other candidate's supporters. Maybe if Joe Biden wasn't headlining the ticket, Mark Kelly may had a slimmer of a chance. But Trump's coattails are a very powerful thing and that's why I believe Martha McSally will win in the end.

Fair points. To falsify my own prediction methods, you could also see how general popularity didn't help Joe Kennedy win against Ed Markey. The latter barely had 200k followers, while Joe's just shy of the 1 million mark. Barely anyone knew who Ed was, too, whereas Kennedy is... a Kennedy. Markey was an incumbant who had certain key endorsements, too, just like McSally.

So, not the end of the world. Nearly every poll aggregate site is against McSally, though, compared to most of them favoring Markey. It's gonna be interesting, but it's wrong to count her out just yet.

 

[heyitsmike]

Nearly every poll aggregates are against McSally, though, compared to most of them favoring Markey. It's gonna be interesting, but it's wrong to count her out just yet.

I don't think you'll find any conservative who thinks she will win in her own right. Pretty much everyone understands that she's completely at the mercy of Trump's coattails.

 

[legalkochi]

I don't think you'll find any conservative who thinks she will win in her own right. Pretty much everyone understands that she's completely at the mercy of Trump's coattails.

I wish there was a better Republican candidate than Martha McSally, but beggars can't be choosers. She isn't as bad as McCain and she's a consistent vote on judicial appointments and other important votes so better her than Mark Kelly.

Maybe in 2026 we'll have a better Republican candidate, who knows?

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

I see. There's also these live streams if people want to keep up with numbers,

62K Fox News
51K Right Side Broadcasting Network
3.3K PBS NewsHour
5.7K Bloomberg QuickTake News
26K NewsNOW From FOX
1.6K The Hill

One American had around 8k at one point as well. That puts the total around ~157k viewers live across all channels that I'm aware of. Pretty solid numbers.

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

I wish there was a better Republican candidate than Martha McSally, but beggars can't be choosers. She isn't as bad as McCain and she's a consistent vote on judicial appointments and other important votes so better her than Mark Kelly.

Maybe in 2026 we'll have a better Republican candidate, who knows?

If she fails, she'll go down in history as one of the most pathetic senators to grace US politics, completely undeservingly. Don't care how much you point out sketchy election ballots and China funds, singehandedly leaving your state from solidly red to pure blue is embarassing.

This won't even affect my day-to-day life. I'm not an Arizonan: I just want to see if this "Californication"/demographic shift theory is up to snuff, and Arizona is unfortunately the easiest test subject to observe potentially shoot itself in the foot.

 

[heyitsmike]

I wish there was a better Republican candidate than Martha McSally, but beggars can't be choosers.

She was literally chosen by the Governor to serve the remainder of the term, after she had already lost a Senate race.

The Republican base is getting far better at weeding out the losers in the primary process. But unfortunately there is still more residual punishment to be handed out for nominating and electing losers like the Arizona governor.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

One American had around 8k at one point as well. That puts the total around ~157k viewers live across all channels that I'm aware of. Pretty solid numbers.

So 5 people at Biden's rally today vs 157k watching Trump. Sometimes I try and look at things from outside the potential bubble I may be building, but even this seems too absurd to rationalize. This wasn't even a very good campaign rally—New Hampshire after the RNC was much higher energy. But to have over 100k watching at the time your outside-Pittsburgh campaign rally is something I can't really discount. Latrobe itself has under 10k people...

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

Beto O'Cuck. Population growth in the Houston area, the Dallas area, the Austin area, etc is making the state bluer, but again - this year is not its year unless Biden is already winning by a lot. Worry about it in 2024 and 2028. Enough recent polls have Trump up, so just assume he has this in the bag.

There is one other thing to consider here.

Beta O'cuck also had -MASSIVE- amounts of money dumped into his campaign and probably billion of dollars worth of Free TV time. The Democrats put an obscene amount of effort into that race and still lost. If they hadn't done that Beta would have never come close.

 

[heyitsmike]

Beta O'cuck

God what a loser. On a related note, now that Biden has chosen Kamala, I'm going to say something very unpopular: Stacey Abrams has outstanding political sense. She is shrewd as fuck. I don't like her politics or anything about her, but I have to appreciate that she played her hand in the most optimal way possible. Even with the benefit of hindsight I don't think she could have done better and that's a rare feat to achieve.

Beto, believing his own press, jumped into the race and completely fell flat in a national environment and in a race not against someone the media hates as much as Ted Cruz. Then he had to take progressively more outrageous positions to try to gain traction in the race to no benefit at all. Now he's old hat and his political career is over because an anti gun politician cannot get elected in Texas.

First off, unlike Beto, she correctly passed on getting into the Presidential race. She also passed on running for the Georgia Senate seat. I think she was smart enough to know she couldn't win a state or national election on her own right. A failed Dem nomination run would be her second big loss and she'd be done like Beto. If she ran for Senate she'd certainly get the party's nomination, but that would basically disqualify her from getting picked as VP. And she knows she'd lose the general election. But by not running she gets to keep the shine on her by claiming she really won her governor's race and only didn't take office because she was cheated.

She also knew that the front runners were two old white men and would probably be looking to add some racial and gender balance to the ticket. And she knew that there is a good chance that whoever won the nomination, either Biden or Bernie, would have a significant possibility of dying in office. Even if they did live, they would both be at least 82 and unlikely to run again, leaving her, as the VP, the presumptive nominee.

Once Biden got the nomination, she made it as obvious as possible that she was interested. She didn't just quietly hope the Biden campaign would consider her. Even though she didn't get picked, she's gonna be able to sleep well at night not having to wonder if she would have gotten picked if only she had pursued it more aggressively.

So yeah, while I totally despise that woman, I have to recognize she's no dummy and thank god she will never get elected to state or national office because I'd hate to see her on the other side of the aisle.

 

[Cubanodun]

A little off topic but why is Discord asking me if im going to vote?

I wish i could vote