I'll just watch Baris's analysis of the debate when he gets around to it, but for now, I am calling it a mild Trump win for one reason, he managed to get Biden to trip on one of his most popular issues, the environment.
The Green New Deal is a campaign promise Biden has made to the American people. When Trump questioned him on it, Biden took the bait and ended up both denouncing and supporting it at the same time. What it does is show him to be a flip flopper. He wants all green energy, yet he cannot remain consistent on whenever or not he supports the deal. Voters now know that Biden does not care about green energy as much as they had been lead to believing and doesn't understand the topic of global warming despite the assumption that the Democrats are the party of science.
He's going to lose a portion of his far left voters over this. While I don't think Trump will get Biden to totally melt down in the next two debates (and he will have to do them since internal pollings are worse than what the mainstream media will tell people), the fact he pissed Biden off so much means there are more opportunities for him to trip Biden over when it comes to important issues. The fact Biden's claim of being a decent, empathetic (really means sympathetic) man was shredded by giving him a juvenile insult helps too.
As long as Trump can avoid falling into a kafka death trap and do a better job of countering hoaxes by Biden (he should have said something about the "fine people" hoax), it won't hurt his chances. Also incumbents are historically poor at first debates, which is another good sign for him. Now he needs to prepare for the next two moderators who will be even less fair than Wallace (who should eat a bag of dicks after covering for Biden's mistakes). Frankly, I expected Biden to do okay in the debate. Biden can still recover from this but even polishing a turd like what the media is already doing doesn't change that he was shit tonight.
That said, the vice president debate will likely be the more important one seeing as Harris is the real candidate here.