2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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GuntPunt said:
Just wait until he wins Civil War II and World War III in his second term. He will be up there with Washington.

It won't happen...probably. The year is still young.

Anyways, gonna fill more of a research role now. Minnesota voter registration files:
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I can't remember, but wasn't the last state you did Wisconsin? Once you're done with them, it might be a good idea to put them all in a compilation in a post so that we can all read it in one sitting.
 
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Big Nasty said:
"Mayor Pete" was pure Astroturf and they just couldn't get the crowd to pop for him. Wonder why.
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He was getting tons of attention and air time. Biden was doing the laziest campaigning ever, right from the start, and he still won states without even putting in effort. I think he didn't even have a ground office in some of them.

For all the BS you can rightfully give the Democratic machine, their core voters hold a lot of blame for their candidate. They had multiple flavors of every ideology to pick from, and they huddled around Biden. (GOP voters had the same variety of choice in 2016, and they went for Trump.)

Harris was the Designated Nominee from the start, flamed out with the voters, and got resurrected once the Machine took hold of Biden's campaign.
 
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heyitsmike said:
Ehh, that dog won't hunt. Nobody will buy that he took a vaccine after he caught coronavirus. That kinda defeats the purpose. Once you have a virus, you already have the antibodies. If anything, it will open him up to the question why he didn't take it before so he wouldn't catch it at all?
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You already have people who think both that naturally recovering from COVID offers no lasting resistance AND a vaccine being possible BOTH being true at the same time.
That's really :optimistic: for how laymen understand vaccines.

Shit. People were already thinking that getting tested protects you from the virus.
 
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Syaoran Li said:
The fact that Biden tested negative (for now) is also one of those things they could spin to their advantage. I'm hoping Barrett gets confirmed ASAP. I know the hearings start on the 12th, but given the new developments, I'm worried it's too late.
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I wonder what could happen if there was a mix-up in tests and in reality Biden is tested positive but that scenario only happen in tv and movies?
 
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Interesting point about polls. Luke Smith got a landline, is old enough and lives in a swing state so he's getting polled a lot. He pointed out that of the people who polled him the majority had a minority accent - 15 Hispanic and one black.

He points out that if the media is full of talking heads saying Trump is an evil racist and condoning violence against Trump supporters this is likely to skew the results because Trump supporters are less likely to participate and if they do participate they're less likely to be truthful about voting for Trump.

In the UK there's something called the 'Shy Tory factor' where the Conservatives, who are usually portrayed as being socially unacceptable by the media, perform worse on polls than in elections where there is a secret ballot. Essentially his argument is that the 'Shy Trump voter factor' effect may be larger given the media portrayal of Trump and his supporters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tunJ-QJMmMo
https://archive.vn/wip/G6Wc8

 
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Someone Awful said:
I can't remember, but wasn't the last state you did Wisconsin? Once you're done with them, it might be a good idea to put them all in a compilation in a post so that we can all read it in one sitting.
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If you want some insight into the BILLIONS of methodologies that arm-chair zoomer pundits are waving around on Twitter, all claiming to be right, I can provide both interesting trends and retarded methods of prediction. I'll stick with nonexceptional data for the most part.

PA has no type of the maps that I've posted that you are requesting in one post, because they do track party affiliation per county, so their is no need for estimation.
EDIT: PA now has a map.
2016 vote share by county.
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PA Registration Trends
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Some guessing/ estimation bullshit. This faggot's twitter is also as annoying to read as you might think. Makes me want to slam bleach cocktails.
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This trend is interesting because it uses a method of linear regression based on Gallop and voter trends. It was coded by an employed electrical engineer.
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I wish I knew the methodology for that linear regression. I just don't see that huge of a margin.

Wisconsin has a map like posted, but it uses Iowa's rural areas as some approximation.
WIJustification.jpgWI IOWA INTERPOLATION.jpgEjZ18LIXcAAncMK.jpegEjXAXfvWAAA3Dc- (1).jpeg

Minnesota's map
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Michigan's map is here. Trends are strange since Macomb county (3rd biggest vote share outside Detroit is trending Trump by like 60-high 30s. He is also doing a little better in Detroit.
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Turnout using that linear regression voter trend method I found showed a steep decrease in turnout.
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Overall, while that vtuber simp is compiling data, he is waaaay too optimistic for Trump's actual chances. This is why I throw his estimations into the trash along with his taste. Guy predicts a NM flip. While there is an overall uptick in GOP registrations in NV and NM during the summer, I'm not predicting Trump winning there.
NMNVRegistration.jpg

And for reference, I do look at other data or analysts on the Dem side to be impartial but most are trash or are just based on polls and 538. This video below is an example of bad election predictions. Motherfucker here is completely delusional. Video opens up with Nate JUST's fursona so I know it will be more trash than the headline. Plus, he thinks Biden will get 400+ EV, SC and Alaska are going blue, Ohio and Iowa are tossups again, and in general is just a Nate Silver cocksucker without anything else influencing his knowledge.

Overall, with expectations in check and all data collected I have found, I have one conclusion to draw:

Anime was a mistake.
 
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New poll from my favorite pollster (besides Baris), the Democracy Institute, the only pollster to get Brexit and Trump 2016 right (though they had to readjust for 2020 since they overstated popular Trump support in 2016):



The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.

However, his overall lead has dropped by two points since the last poll in September.

The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.

But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.

Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.

Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.

This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.

While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.

This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.

Other controversies appear to have had little impact on the election with around 8 in 10 voters saying that the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has changed their position, although Trump got more favourable support 12 percent, than unfavourable 9 percent.

After a first bad tempered debate in the election, 32 percent said Trump won and 18 percent Biden but half thought it was a draw and more than 7 in 10 said it made no difference to how they would vote.

Law and order remains the top issue in the election after riots linked to the black lives matter protests with 32 percent identifying it as their number one concern.

However, the economy is closing the gap with 30 percent putting it top as the effects of coronavirus continue to bite.

Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.

Meanwhile, the poll reveals that former Mr Biden has a “reality problem” with twice as many people giving credit to reality TV star Kim Kardasian for prison reform than the former Vice President.

Asked who has had a more positive impact on criminal justice 41 percent say Trump, the same number say Kim Kardasian and just 18 percent say Biden.

Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said: “When a reality TV star beats you in a poll on an important policy question, you know your campaign has a problem.

“We find twice as many voters give Kim Kardashian credit for advancing the cause of criminal justice reform – an especially important issue among Black voters – than rate Biden’s contribution.

“Trump and Biden’s respective standings on this specific issue epitomise Biden’s overarching Achilles’ Heel in this election: comparatively low support and enthusiasm for his candidacy among Black voters. To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best.”
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Tathagata said:
New poll from my favorite pollster (besides Baris), the Democracy Institute, the only pollster to get Brexit and Trump 2016 right (though they had to readjust for 2020 since they overstated popular Trump support in 2016):


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Trump winning the popular vote by 1 point would be amazing. Sleepy Joe has to win the popular vote by more than three points for him to be a shoe-in for the presidency. Joe winning by less than two pints favors Trump, and the 2-3 point ranges puts it into toss-up status, because how the Electoral College favors Republicans.
 
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Tathagata said:
New poll from my favorite pollster (besides Baris), the Democracy Institute, the only pollster to get Brexit and Trump 2016 right (though they had to readjust for 2020 since they overstated popular Trump support in 2016):


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They predicted both Brexit and Trump being elected? Now I'm interested.

One thing that bothers me though, why does Trump perform so highly among blacks when it comes to approval ratings (40%) yet only 18% are going to vote for him? It would be nice to see the gap close between Trump and Biden for black votes by twenty points but if Trump was doing that well among blacks in approval rating, at least 30% of blacks would signal they're voting for Trump. I've also heard this poll takes into account the shy Trump effect.

CrippleThreat said:

Trump supporters go above and beyond.
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I watched for a few minutes. If you could keep an eye on how many people are viewing this, that would be awesome.
 
Truthboi said:
Trump is not pulling negative ads, I wonder how this will affect his campaign as Biden now looks like someone who is not attacking the president due to him pulling ads.
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Trump isn't pulling negative ads because Biden isn't struck with COVID-19. Since mainstream media outlet refuses to even acknowledge any possible health issues that Biden might have and want to lie to people about him being able to serve out a full term, Trump probably figured "Fuck it, if they're going to pretend Biden is healthy, then I will treat him as if he is".

It's certainly a risky play optics-wise, at least unless we still find negative Biden ads in a couple days from now.

Edit: Richard Baris of People's Pundit claims there are still negative advertisements from Biden on air, but did not provide screenshots.

Link / Archive
 
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