You really think Delaware, Oregon and New York are going for Trump? Do you live in a bubble or something?
I doubt Oregon and New York will go for Trump but I could see enough people in the rest of the state being so utterly pissed at Portland and NYC that Trump could manage to break the 40% threshold and make those two states go from deep blue to light blue and maybe flip a few Congressional seats in Eastern Oregon or the more reddish-purple parts of Upstate New York.
I guarantee that will happen in Virginia, where it will go light blue and the Dems could lose a few seats in the House and the state legislature.
The only way New York could go red would be if there's enough people pissed at Cuomo in New York state and just enough people pissed at DiBlasio and Antifa/BLM in NYC that it could narrowly flip the state if the Democrat voter turnout is low enough.
It's extremely unlikely barring we get yet another 2020 freak incident where the NYPD and the Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn all vote Trump to spite BLM and DiBlasio while Democrat turnout is at record-breaking lows in New York. It's not gonna happen.
Barring some freak miracle of divine intervention, New York and Oregon will remain Democrat but might go from deep blue to light blue given the specific circumstances of this year.
Minnesota's probably going to flip red for the first time since the 70's.
Virginia will probably stay blue but will lighten for a little bit and there's an unlikely but not impossible shot of it going light red this year.
Florida and Ohio will be swing states as always, but I think they'll go red this year given what's going on and both are major gains.
New Hampshire's got a decent shot at going red, moreso than Virginia and definitely moreso than New York or Oregon but not as likely as Minnesota flipping or Florida and Ohio going to Trump a second time.
Michigan could go either way at this point, it's a dead 50/50 shot
Arizona will stay red but will probably be a light red.
Wisconsin is also difficult to tell, but I've got a gut feeling that it will go to Trump. If Michigan is a 50/50 shot than Wisconsin is a 60/40 chance in Trump's favor.
Delaware's probably going to go blue but I don't follow that state too closely. Given that even Mondale got his own home state, I think Biden's gonna win Delaware.
Pennsylvania's going to be the big one to watch. I think it could go to Trump barring some massive last-second black pill event, but that's mainly because of the fact that the Amish of all people are going out to vote and Biden's comments about coal and fracking likely being poison to anyone in the Keystone State outside of Philly.
If Trump can win all the states he won in 2016 plus Minnesota, that alone could be enough to give him a mandate, especially if he wins the popular vote and the GOP gains just enough seats in the House to eke out a narrow majority.
The absolute best case scenario that doesn't require some kind of holy miracle would involve Trump getting all the states from 2016 plus Minnesota and New Hampshire and maybe Virginia alongside a popular vote win and GOP gains the House and retains control of the Senate.
Anything else is impossible or at the very least, astronomically unlikely. The absolute best case scenario is unlikely as is.