2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Doctor of Autism]

Yeah, it's been really off-putting. They made it out like Trump was going to be the worst thing ever, but the last few years before 2020 were quite great. Leftist idiots like Michael Moore constantly fear-mongering about Trump isn't endearing, it has the opposite effect.

Yeah honestly Trump's years pre-2020 were quite fine. If anything it says a lot about the media the one time they even praised Trump was the Syrian airstrike early in his first term.

 

[heyitsmike]

constantly fear-mongering about Trump isn't endearing, it has the opposite effect.

It's like watching Rocky III. Even a hostile crowd will eventually start to come around to your side when you keep standing tall against beatings like the ones he's taking.

 

[Someone Awful]

Billy Newby - who has notably been retweeted by Robert Barnes - has been compiling data for the four swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Here they are,

North Carolina Voter Registration Data:



Link / Archive

R+343.49 per day (June 20, 2020 to October 10, 2020)
R+455.86 (October 3, 2020 to October 10, 2020)

Florida Voter Registration Data:



Link / Archive

R+1127.85 (June 30, 2020 to October 9, 2020)
R+1794.56 (September 30, 2020 to October 9, 2020)

Arizona Voter Registration Data:



Link / Archive

R+102.24 (April 1, 2020 to October 5. 2020)
R+256.08 (August 4, 2020 to October 5, 2020)

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Data:



Link / Archive

R+804.58 (June 29, 2020 to October 5, 2020)
R+1184.8 (August 31, 2020 to October 5, 2020)
R+961.29 (September 28, 2020 to October 5, 2020)

All states show an increase in GOP registration since at least the second half of this year. With the exception of Arizona, all states have trended Republican since 2016 and even Arizona is closing that gap. In North Carolina, there is a slow, but gradual trend towards Republicans. Florida and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, have an all out assault. Florida had people registering to vote by the thousands until registration closed and Pennsylvania's increases have been nearly as fast. Worth noting that the Florida's increased Republican voter registration just happens to be in areas where most pollsters miss while almost all of Republican's growth in Pennsylvania - except arguably Bucks County - is in Appalachian Country, which except for Allegheny County is blood red.

All except Pennsylvania have the last bracket accelerating growth, but even Republicans outpacing Democrats at 961 people per day is great for a competitive state. My guess is that Trump's announcement that he had the coronavirus might have slightly slowed his lead since people were worried he could be facing life threatening complications or even die from it. If it affected Arizona's GOP growth too or even reverse it, we won't know until the registration deadline on October 23rd (archive). But the last bracket of data for both states is on October 5th, the day Trump returned back to the White House after his brief stay at the Walter Reed Medical Center.

This is important because we have the last bracket of data for Florida and North Carolina that extend to the 9th and 10th respectively, days after Trump returned to the White House and the Vice President Debate. Notice how Republicans accelerated their gains in Florida and North Carolina in their final voter registration days? That tells me that Trump showing that he conquered COVID-19 and Pence's pulverizing Harris at the Vice President debate in front of sixty million people had an impact on undecided voters and that they don't want to risk a Harris presidency happening with how old Biden will be if he wins. Time will tell if Pennsylvania and Arizona maintain their pace of growth or not.

What I will say is that after looking at this, it is unlikely Democrats will narrow their voter registration gap in Arizona and highly unlikely the Democrats will increase their margin in Pennsylvania. In the latter, the best the DNC can hope for is to slow GOP's pace until the deadline on the 19th. It's obvious the DNC are hoping that the extended deadline in Arizona will get more people to register due to COVID-19, but I have a hunch that due to recent events, it might do the opposite.

Also, here's another interesting tidbit in this NBC News article (archive) made on October 1st. Granted, it has a negative spin on how voter registration isn't enough to make up for the polling gap, but it does acknowledge it could matter if the polls tighten before Election Day or there are substantial polling error (hint hint). Worth noting that Trump is doing even better in voter registration than he did in 2016.
---
Another thing to note, Baris will be having a much better idea of how Pennsylvania might vote tomorrow (archive). While he cannot do a show on it on Sunday, watch out for his Twitter to see if he releases any interesting information.

Yesterday he said that the sample was "very male" and that it could be 51/49 (women/men) or 52/48. We'll see if that holds true when the results come out tomorrow.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Another thing to note, Baris will be having a much better idea of how Pennsylvania might vote tomorrow (archive). While he cannot do a show on it on Sunday, watch out for his Twitter to see if he releases any interesting information.

Yesterday he said that the sample was "very male" and that it could be 51/49 (women/men) or 52/48. We'll see if that holds true when the results come out tomorrow.

If Baris' polling turns out correct in this election, when every normal metric has gone haywire and the environment is so impossible to poll that Gallup quit, he's going to become the right's version of Nate Polyester. (In terms of following, not accuracy.)

 

[GuntPunt]

Billy Newby - who has notably been retweeted by Robert Barnes - has been compiling data for the four swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Here they are,

North Carolina Voter Registration Data:

View attachment 1654269

Link / Archive

R+343.49 per day (June 20, 2020 to October 10, 2020)
R+455.86 (October 3, 2020 to October 10, 2020)

Florida Voter Registration Data:

View attachment 1654270

Link / Archive

R+1127.85 (June 30, 2020 to October 9, 2020)
R+1794.56 (September 30, 2020 to October 9, 2020)

Arizona Voter Registration Data:

View attachment 1654271

Link / Archive

R+102.24 (April 1, 2020 to October 5. 2020)
R+256.08 (August 4, 2020 to October 5, 2020)

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Data:

View attachment 1654272

Link / Archive

R+804.58 (June 29, 2020 to October 5, 2020)
R+1184.8 (August 31, 2020 to October 5, 2020)
R+961.29 (September 28, 2020 to October 5, 2020)

All states show an increase in GOP registration since at least the second half of this year. With the exception of Arizona, all states have trended Republican since 2016 and even Arizona is closing that gap. In North Carolina, there is a slow, but gradual trend towards Republicans. Florida and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, have an all out assault. Florida had people registering to vote by the thousands until registration closed and Pennsylvania's increases have been nearly as fast. Worth noting that the Florida's increased Republican voter registration just happens to be in areas where most pollsters miss while almost all of Republican's growth in Pennsylvania - except arguably Bucks County - is in Appalachian Country, which except for Allegheny County is blood red.

All except Pennsylvania have the last bracket accelerating growth, but even Republicans outpacing Democrats at 961 people per day is great for a competitive state. My guess is that Trump's announcement that he had the coronavirus might have slightly slowed his lead since people were worried he could be facing life threatening complications or even die from it. If it affected Arizona's GOP growth too or even reverse it, we won't know until the registration deadline on October 23rd (archive). But the last bracket of data for both states is on October 5th, the day Trump returned back to the White House after his brief stay at the Walter Reed Medical Center.

This is important because we have the last bracket of data for Florida and North Carolina that extend to the 9th and 10th respectively, days after Trump returned to the White House and the Vice President Debate. Notice how Republicans accelerated their gains in Florida and North Carolina in their final voter registration days? That tells me that Trump showing that he conquered COVID-19 and Pence's pulverizing Harris at the Vice President debate in front of sixty million people had an impact on undecided voters and that they don't want to risk a Harris presidency happening with how old Biden will be if he wins. Time will tell if Pennsylvania and Arizona maintain their pace of growth or not.

What I will say is that after looking at this, it is unlikely Democrats will narrow their voter registration gap in Arizona and highly unlikely the Democrats will increase their margin in Pennsylvania. In the latter, the best the DNC can hope for is to slow GOP's pace until the deadline on the 19th. It's obvious the DNC are hoping that the extended deadline in Arizona will get more people to register due to COVID-19, but I have a hunch that due to recent events, it might do the opposite.

Also, here's another interesting tidbit in this NBC News article (archive) made on October 1st. Granted, it has a negative spin on how voter registration isn't enough to make up for the polling gap, but it does acknowledge it could matter if the polls tighten before Election Day or there are substantial polling error (hint hint). Worth noting that Trump is doing even better in voter registration than he did in 2016.
---
Another thing to note, Baris will be having a much better idea of how Pennsylvania might vote tomorrow (archive). While he cannot do a show on it on Sunday, watch out for his Twitter to see if he releases any interesting information.

Yesterday he said that the sample was "very male" and that it could be 51/49 (women/men) or 52/48. We'll see if that holds true when the results come out tomorrow.

Interesting on the PA male being more enthusiastic. If it is a male oriented election or even in PA, the Democrats are going to have to prepare for the slaughter they'll receive. They bank hard on that female vote to come out. If they don't, Bye Biden.

I wonder if "First female President" not being on the ballot is depressing women turnout versus Trump juicing the WC males. Guess we shall see soon.

 

[usernames can change now!]

https://www.strawpoll.me/21082817

Straw poll, how likely do you think a peaceful transfer of power (or peaceful acceptance of Trump victory) is?

 

[Doctor of Autism]

https://www.strawpoll.me/21082817

Straw poll, how likely do you think a peaceful transfer of power (or peaceful acceptance of Trump victory) is?

The most likely outcome is riots and the worst scenario is unfaithful electors. But if Trump wins with nothing to prove Biden actually won, the most likely option is just riots in the street and bitter conceding of defeat. Of course there will also be some shenanigans but it won't be too significant.

 

[CrippleThreat]

Also, here's another interesting tidbit in this NBC News article (archive) made on October 1st. Granted, it has a negative spin on how voter registration isn't enough to make up for the polling gap, but it does acknowledge it could matter if the polls tighten before Election Day or there are substantial polling error (hint hint). Worth noting that Trump is doing even better in voter registration than he did in 2016.

So the immediate assumption to be made on this point is that although Biden is totes "crushing" Trump, they are trying to gear up for a "Well, the polls did have a decent margin of error." spin just in case the worst happens on Election Day?

 

[Harvey Danger]

Speaking of men and enthusiasm...

link / archive

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

https://www.strawpoll.me/21082817

Straw poll, how likely do you think a peaceful transfer of power (or peaceful acceptance of Trump victory) is?

I think a lot of it depends. If there's a clear electoral victory for Trump but not a popular vote victory? It could be between minor and somewhat major. If there's a popular vote victory? Minor, but the demoralization will be epic and probably depress many people from doing things. If it's super contested with a Trump win eked out? Much closer to major. I don't see a civil war—that's doomerism. Most people just want to grill in the end, and we've had actual contested elections that were totally rigged. See 1876, 1824. If Trump loses, he'll lose clearly. If he wins, given the polling errors already in place, I think he'll win decisively. But you never know, just my opinion. People pushing doomerism like doomer beanie man are extremely uneducated about American history in general. Don't trust a high school dropout for major takes on civil history.

Another thing to note, Baris will be having a much better idea of how Pennsylvania might vote tomorrow (archive). While he cannot do a show on it on Sunday, watch out for his Twitter to see if he releases any interesting information.

I think Baris said he's taking Monday off since it's a holiday, but that should be easy to cross reference with his stream on Friday.

 

[Someone Awful]

If Baris' polling turns out correct in this election, when every normal metric has gone haywire and the environment is so impossible to poll that Gallup quit, he's going to become the right's version of Nate Polyester. (In terms of following, not accuracy.)

Baris is one of the few pollsters worth paying attention to, regardless of the outcome of the election. In fact, he's probably the best pollster out there since he got 2016 almost entirely right and can carefully disassemble polling like a scientist. Trafalgar is decent, but I think they're going to end up getting Michigan wrong this election. Already I've noticed his following quickly increased in the month I was watching. When I first started, he was lucky to get 500 views during his live stream. Now, according to the last livestream I saw, he's pushing 900 views. I think he will top 1000 views in a live stream soon if he hasn't.

Interesting on the PA male being more enthusiastic. If it is a male oriented election or even in PA, the Democrats are going to have to prepare for the slaughter they'll receive. They bank hard on that female vote to come out. If they don't, Bye Biden.

I wonder if "First female President" not being on the ballot is depressing women turnout versus Trump juicing the WC males. Guess we shall see soon.

It's going to still slightly lean female but yeah, if it was even or more males voted, Trump would win Pennsylvania for sure. But I believe Baris' prediction of rural white males being the most enthusiastic voters is going to come true since I believe the decline in white support comes from the suburban population, not working class who have been turning Appalachian Pennsylvania blood red in registration. It's why Trump is (or maybe was) leading in Pennsylvania while Biden has a definitive lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.

So the immediate assumption to be made on this point is that although Biden is totes "crushing" Trump, they are trying to gear up for a "Well, the polls did have a decent margin of error." spin just in case the worst happens on Election Day?

Exactly. They know deep down Biden won't get his landslide. You see this in the DNC scaling down campaign efforts in Florida, a state with a very high nonwhite population, which tells me Trump is near a lock for the state. At best, Biden will get 334 electoral votes. A comfortable victory, but not a landslide. The most insufferable will be if Biden wins but by a hair. They'll immediately spin their still horrible polls as "well we were right about Biden winning anyway!" even though their methodology has gotten worse over the years.

I think Baris said he's taking Monday off since it's a holiday, but that should be easy to cross reference with his stream on Friday.

He said it was a maybe, but I will assume he's off until Tuesday just in case. That said, might as well put the link up to the stream so people know where I'm getting this from,

 

[Doctor of Autism]

I think a lot of it depends. If there's a clear electoral victory for Trump but not a popular vote victory? It could be between minor and somewhat major. If there's a popular vote victory? Minor, but the demoralization will be epic and probably depress many people from doing things. If it's super contested with a Trump win eked out? Much closer to major. I don't see a civil war—that's doomerism. Most people just want to grill in the end, and we've had actual contested elections that were totally rigged. See 1876, 1824. If Trump loses, he'll lose clearly. If he wins, given the polling errors already in place, I think he'll win decisively. But you never know, just my opinion. People pushing doomerism like doomer beanie man are extremely uneducated about American history in general. Don't trust a high school dropout for major takes on civil history.



I think Baris said he's taking Monday off since it's a holiday, but that should be easy to cross reference with his stream on Friday.

Yeah if Trump loses in the most transparent way possible that isn't due to cheating, the worst thing that will happen is people being disappointed with some idiots causing shit. Honestly the worst thing about this is Kamala being president along with smug jackasses bragging about how they #resisted.

But either way a civil war will never happen and anyone believing that is dumb or high on the blackpill.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Grande si es verdad.

link / archive


link / archive

I can't find an official police estimate, but the videos look impressive enough. (archive)

 

[GuntPunt]

Scoured the cesspool recently for the hot take of the night. Winner goes to this guy.


Meltdown. Yeah, we all believe the polls. Trump and his base is currently writing their concession letter / suicide notes right now because this Twitter nobody has a poll.

I know exactly what this guy's bullshit poll will say. Its obvious because he and NBC Dave Wasserman have been jerking eachother off for days. He has been beating the drum that Trump has "collapsed with seniors" all week. His evidence was a Biden golfcart rally in The Villages in Sumter, FL.

So let's look at the Villages today, where Pence had a rally.

Spoiler: The rest

And fuck it, let's throw in a 30000 car Hispanic Trump parade in Miami for good measure.


I'm really scared bros. I haven't shaken this much since earlier today when the Krassensteins said they had the nigger tape.

 

[Someone Awful]

Scoured the cesspool recently for the hot take of the night. Winner goes to this guy.
View attachment 1654584

Meltdown. Yeah, we all believe the polls. Trump and his base is currently writing their concession letter / suicide notes right now because this Twitter nobody has a poll.

I know exactly what this guy's bullshit poll will say. He has been beating the drum that Trump has "collapsed with seniors" all week. His evidence was a Biden golfcart rally in The Villages in Sumter, FL.

So let's look at the Villages today, where Pence had a rally.
View attachment 1654582
View attachment 1654579

Spoiler: The rest

View attachment 1654581
View attachment 1654583

And fuck it, let's throw in a 30000 car Hispanic Trump parade in Miami for good measure.
View attachment 1654580

I'm really scared bros. I haven't shaken this much since earlier today when the Krassensteins said they had the nigger tape.

Link / Archive

I'll believe it when I see it. Unless those "absolutely devastating poll results" come with a reasonable electorate topped with a representative sample that take into account deep red areas most pollsters love to overlook, I'm not buying it.

 

[AnitaSarsleezian]

Y'all pack it up. It's over. It's a wrap. Se acabó.
View attachment 1653274

I can never look at her without thinking of this:

 

[Doctor of Autism]

Scoured the cesspool recently for the hot take of the night. Winner goes to this guy.
View attachment 1654584

At this point it's blatantly obvious these polls are skewed on purpose with that level of turnout projected is just to demoralize voters. Yeah the GOP is so optimistic now with the polls that give Biden double digit leads, I can't wait for the +20 Biden lead on Trump now.

 

[deeplyhigh]

From Minnetonka, Minnesota today, and yes that is in Hennepin County. The parade was reportedly over 500 cars and stretched for miles.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Scoured the cesspool recently for the hot take of the night. Winner goes to this guy.
View attachment 1654584

Meltdown. Yeah, we all believe the polls. Trump and his base is currently writing their concession letter / suicide notes right now because this Twitter nobody has a poll.

I know exactly what this guy's bullshit poll will say. He has been beating the drum that Trump has "collapsed with seniors" all week. His evidence was a Biden golfcart rally in The Villages in Sumter, FL.

So let's look at the Villages today, where Pence had a rally.
View attachment 1654582
View attachment 1654579

Spoiler: The rest

View attachment 1654581
View attachment 1654583

And fuck it, let's throw in a 30000 car Hispanic Trump parade in Miami for good measure.
View attachment 1654580

I'm really scared bros. I haven't shaken this much since earlier today when the Krassensteins said they had the nigger tape.

I have so many questions:

1. Who is this guy, and what polling experience does he have? Any examples on past polls he's taken?

2. This is the first I am hearing of Trump losing the "senior vote." How and why is this supposedly happening? Because of COVID? If this is true, then the seniors are either (a) idiots for believing what the media feeds them, or (b) selfish pricks for not caring about how lockdowns are negatively impacting children and the working class.

 

[Kane Lives]

At this point it's blatantly obvious these polls are skewed on purpose with that level of turnout projected is just to demoralize voters. Yeah the GOP is so optimistic now with the polls that give Biden double digit leads, I can't wait for the +20 Biden lead on Trump now.

Why isn't he 50 points ahead?!