2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[MrJokerRager]

Here are some additional statistics for Bernie in 2016. Bernie was a Caucus Grandmaster. He was a reverse Trump as GETOUS lost caucuses to Ted Cruz.

Here some statistics comparing Bernie to Trump. Bernie could have been a strong competitive match for Trump in many swing states in 2016 but in 2020, he lost a lot of support.

Looking at the same states that both were in 2016 and 2020, Bernie has lost support.

And here is comparing Biden to Trump. I divided it into before Bernie cucked and after Bernie cucked as by then Biden was running uncontested. I will probably next work on a table where before and after Obama nuked Bernie by telling everyone else to drop out.

 

[Meat Target]

Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

 

[JambledUpWords]

 

[spiritofamermaid]

Underestimating Jeb! support again, but I'm sure this is the map.
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>thinking Florida won't vote for guac man
>Florida, home of the guac bowl

 

[Aidan]

Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

Agreed, I think people are a bit too confident with how skewed 2016 was. Biden/Kamala aren't the best ticket but there's a lot going on in this race and as motivated as pro-trumpers are to vote, nevertrumpers are also riled up. If you check out any of the campaign ads, they're fearmongering by basically saying Trump will do all those things they said he'd do in 2016 but for real this time and people do eat that up.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

So Biden's coming to my neck of the woods today at 2:30, but it's impossible to find out where he'll be. I want to go and protest/document what it's really like, but it's literally impossible as of T-5 hours to discover where he's going to show up. This is insane. How is this guy an actual candidate?

When you say "neck of the woods," do you mean a particular city? Because if so you could probably make a short list of most likely locations based on size and venue capabilities and then drive around.

 

[spiritofamermaid]

A thought on the mormon vote:

Utah is as good a proxy as any for how Mormons will vote in other states, and Trump is actually polling better currently in Utah than his final vote share in 2016.

The RCP average for Trump on 11/3/2016 was 37.4%, and he took the state with 45.9%. Today his average is 50%.

(As a side note, if ever you needed more evidence of the piss-poor state of modern polling, I saw that aggregate polls for every national election in the past 10 years underpredicted Republican performance to the tune of 6-10%, in fucking Utah).

2016 was a truly strange anomaly in Utah because people tend to forget that third party spoiler Evan McMullin (who also happened to be as Mormon as lime jello) got 21% of the fucking vote compared to Hilary’s 27%. And even then Trump saw a last minute break of nearly double digit percentage points compared to his polling average.

If there is such a thing as a shy Trump voter at all, then Mormons would be at the top of that list, and the numbers show it. They may kvetch in public about a meany president that drops the f-bomb, but like hell are they going to actually pull the lever for an alternative that is neck-deep in pro-choice and anti-gun bullshit. The Barrett nomination will also cover a multitude of sins I expect, especially with those two issues.

I expect Trump to carry Utah by about ten points more than in 2016, and large Mormon populations in Arizona to largely follow suit, if not break even at worst. Idaho is so laughably in the bag for Trump that I can’t even find polling for it. Utah only shows up in polling due to the powers that be wanting to keep a their fingers on the political pulse of both the church as a whole and the cancer that is the rogue progressive opposition in Salt Lake.

In short, any losses he had to Biden in the more suburban Mormons he will more than make up for with the ones who he lost to McMullin in 2016. The only thing that could change this is Romney endorsing Biden, which is admittedly possible, but it’d be a hard fucking sell for him to point out what exactly Trump has done that is worse than late term abortions and progressive insanity. The fact that Romney was dragged back in line for the Barrett confirmation means it’s unlikely he’ll break ranks for the general. At worse he doesn’t endorse anyone, but that won’t move the needle, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t want to call attention to the fact that his own business interests just so happen to overlap with the ones that have caused the massive scandal around Hunter Biden.

I would encourage pollers to start in Idaho, if it's too late now then for the next election. After all, in 2018 due to Californian plague Boise elected a far left dem mayor.

Also I am admittedly sad that due to personal conflicts it seems like I will never make it to an in-person Trump campaign rally. That will definitely be in my top ten lifetime regrets. Though hopefully he will still do rallies in his next term, so I can at least meet him in person.

Edit: pollers not pullers

 

[UselessIdiot]

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Yeah, fight the power by voting for a white male career politician who's been in office for 47 years and has done nothing but supported shitty policies -- including the 90s crime bill.

Sure, fatty!

 

[Hungry Hungry Bitch]

Early voting in my state starts tomorrow. I saw multiple pickups flying big Trump flags around town, so maybe we're not as screwed as I continue to think we are.

I still can't shake this idea that Biden will win due to the sheer gullibility of swing voters and/or a touch of fraud in key places. The polls don't have to be exactly right on the numbers; Biden can win by a razor-thin margin, and the Cathedral will gloat about how they were right about Drumpf all along.

I wonder which campaign has a better lawyer game to fight ballot fraud bullshit.

 

[Doctor of Autism]

Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

The only reliable polls on this is Trafalgar and Gallup which seem to have a good pulse on the nation, there is also the voting registration which is favoring republicans.

Of course that's the most reliable data found posted in this thread. Of course I think people are being confident in 2016 and some may get complacent over 2016's upset victory. Though there is still a case for them like how the mainstream news polls oversample Democrats a lot and have done the same thing with the 2018 elections which were off. But the hate for Trump should not be underestimated.

 

[heyitsmike]

The only thing that could change this is Romney endorsing Biden

That would change nothing. I really think the importance of endorsements is ridiculously overrated. Mind bogglingly overrated.

Biden forgot Romney's name just yesterday. If he endorses him after that it would make him the biggest cuck since Jerry Falwell Jr.

 

[spiritofamermaid]

Here are some additional statistics for Bernie in 2016. Bernie was a Caucus Grandmaster. He was a reverse Trump as GETOUS lost caucuses to Ted Cruz.

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Here some statistics comparing Bernie to Trump. Bernie could have been a strong competitive match for Trump in many swing states in 2016 but in 2020, he lost a lot of support.

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Looking at the same states that both were in 2016 and 2020, Bernie has lost support.

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And here is comparing Biden to Trump. I divided it into before Bernie cucked and after Bernie cucked as by then Biden was running uncontested. I will probably next work on a table where before and after Obama nuked Bernie by telling everyone else to drop out.

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I wanted Bernie to get the nomination, not only because I was a bernie bro then, but also in retrospect we could've had 2 populists, 1 socialist and 1 capitalist so that america could FINALLY have the needed convo and definitively show whether America wants socialism or capitalism (spoiler: it's capitalism).
Now if the progressives overtake the DNC, it won't be against someone who personifies the success of capitalistic america (bloomberg doesn't count, he's the corrupt side), so it wouldn't be as clear.

 

[Kulee Baba]

Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

Trump beyond a shadow of a doubt has had an outstanding week and continues to be on the upswing after the Chris Wallace Debate Shitshow and getting the Rona. And yet RealClearPolitics claims Biden's numbers have only increased. Call it a cope but it leads me to conclude that there's major inaccuracies in the polling.

They're not taking into account voter apathy for Biden whereas Republicans voters are absolutely committed to voting for Trump. They're not wondering how many people are closeted Trump voters because they simply don't want some unhinged leftist screaming at them in the parking lot or trying to humiliate them on social media. And I firmly believe Trump has made major inroads in appealing to both Hispanic and Black Voters.

 

[Nguyen Van Phuoc]

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She made a follow up post and I want to die

 

[UselessIdiot]

The only reliable polls on this is Trafalgar and Gallup which seem to have a good pulse on the nation, there is also the voting registration which is favoring republicans.

Of course that's the most reliable data found posted in this thread. Of course I think people are being confident in 2016 and some may get complacent over 2016's upset victory. Though there is still a case for them like how the mainstream news polls oversample Democrats a lot and have done the same thing with the 2018 elections which were off. But the hate for Trump should not be underestimated.

Hating a candidate is never a viable strategy alone. It certainly didn't stop Bush from being re-elected. Republicans/conservatives tend not to be complacent voters. Democrats rely on too many groups known to get complacent unless a candidate really enthuses them, and even then, they will still often lose.

 

[JambledUpWords]

She made a follow up post and I want to die

View attachment 1659289

How is twerking supposed to get people to vote?

 

[MrJokerRager]

Here are some fun 270 to win maps based on all those stats I posted here.

Bernie vs Trump 2016.

Bernie vs Trump 2020.

Biden vs Trump 2020. I will admit this was a whitepill even though California going GOP is a bigger miracle than Red Wall breaking in the United Kingdom.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

Idaho has a significant Mormon population, FWIW.

One of the Brigham Young universities is there.

 

[The Pink Panther]

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I dunno about you, but I think it's pretty narrow to view history of the basis of the U.S. just on the whole "muh stolen land" and "muh white people" level, but whatever, you do you.

 

[Puff]

Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

The polls show it as competitive if you take out the bullshit, not a landslide for Trump. Read the thread before posting.