2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Everyone fucks up on that because those little shits never vote no matter how many times you tell them. Showing college dangerhair activists being excited to vote is anecdotal crap. Anyone depending on "the youth vote" is a damned fool.
This is why I'm :optimistic: expecting the youth vote to be a tighter race than they are expecting. The hardline Dangerhairs & Woke-Students are going to turn out to vote for the left, the would-be Covington Kids are going to turn out for the right; but the more casual left-leaning types are probably just going to sleep in, smoke some pot and order take-out.
Plus, if any demographic has the highest Shy Trumper Effect, it has got to be 18-30.

Granted, Trump has shafted some of his potential supporters in this demographic with his S230 stuff, but still...
 
This is why I'm :optimistic: expecting the youth vote to be a tighter race than they are expecting. The hardline Dangerhairs & Woke-Students are going to turn out to vote for the left, the would-be Covington Kids are going to turn out for the right; but the more casual left-leaning types are probably just going to sleep in, smoke some pot and order take-out.
Plus, if any demographic has the highest Shy Trumper Effect, it has got to be 18-30.

Granted, Trump has shafted some of his potential supporters in this demographic with his S230 stuff, but still...
Almost nobody knows that 230 could fuck them but us. Hell, who else is it going to fuck? 4chan? The internet is dead and buried.
 
"We need to be able to accept them days later" is so blatant. It's "oh shit turns out he won but only by X, check to see if your neighbors bothered to vote" and everyone knows it.

What's the point of this, they already have the reddit vote anyway

Because Obama purged everyone who wasn't a bootlicker, and the Clinton replaced everyone with her own bootlickers, and both fucked off after she lost, they just have the C-list woke millenials left.

They think Twitter is real life.
 
The liberal and pro-LGBT institutions wouldn't have gotten as far as they did if the Religious Right didn't give them a goldmine of material to use as ammunition against them. Normies were increasingly alienated by them while an entire generation (Millennials and the earlier Zoomers) rebelled because puritan antics and the "No Fun Allowed" mentality of Protestant conservatism and moral traditionalism.

While "banning fun" seems like a ridiculous reason for adults, with kids it will have a major impact on what kind of mindset and beliefs they will have when they get older.

Most of today's SJW's were children or young adolescents in the heyday of the Religious Right's lunacy. The ones who come from conservative families or grew up in the Bible Belt also tend to be the most fanatical in their wokeness and devotion to leftism, atheism or witchcraft.

If SJWs were caused by the religious right being strong, they would've cropped up hundreds of years earlier when the "religious right" was much stronger, not at secularism's peak in the 21st century. Just how powerful do you think the religious right was in the 1990s when SJWs grew up, anyway? Did they have institutional control - or were they just a loud, widely-mocked diversion? Put another way, was the kid whose half-senile grandma wouldn't let him watch cartoons or have pokeyman cards because they were the devil normal, or weird? It was weird where I grew up (btw I wasn't that kid).

I guess according to your logic, I should raise my kids as commie faggots if I want them to have traditionalist values later. We all exist in a state of permanent kneejerk rebellion, just like how you felt because dumb stupid christcuck grandma made you go to bed early instead of letting you stay up to watch Adult Swim all those years ago.

Again, religious right had many failings - chief among them focusing on stupid shit like pokemon cards instead of serious cultural issues - but those are issues of weakness, not of strength. You think because they were loud they were strong, but a dying animal is also loud. What you heard was a death rattle.
 
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Several/dozens of pages ago, I mentioned a new neighbor of mine who had "Semper Fi" and "Back the Blue/Blue Lives Matter" flags displayed in their yards, and so I made the assumption that they may as well be Trump supporters. Some disagreed with me.

Welp, today, I discovered that this neighbor now has a fucking crane to hold up a gigantic Trump 2020 flag in their front yard. So ... I guess my assumption was correct with this household.

Despite being in a very blue state, I can't help but notice the scarcity of Biden signs/flags in the area. Don't get me wrong, I fully anticipate for Biden to win this state easily ... But I can't help but notice the lack of enthusiasm. I have never seen anything like this in regards to a Democrat candidate in my state. There has always been a flood of signs everywhere for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in every General Election cycle ... Until now.

I am not sure if enthusiasm will affect anything in regards to the outcome of the election, but let's just say that the lack of enthusiasm is very noticeable, and is very unique as opposed what I am used to seeing. None of this may matter ... But the lack of enthusiasm for Biden is very real. TDS, not Biden, is running things in this election.
Even if Biden loses the election, the Democrats are going to do whatever they can to win the popular votes and that means committing voting fraud in deep blue states like New York. They don't want any signs of their strongholds potentially heading right because that would mean those states are politically and culturally becoming more conservative.

That said, if they cheat like they have never cheated before and New York still trends right (and not by an insignificant margin), that means we might be looking at a competitive state a generation from now.. This is why every Trump supporter should vote even if they live in a solid blue state.
 
Uhoh reporters dared to ask Biden about the NY Post article: https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1317275294194085888

The first cracks are starting to show. Will the entire house of cards collapse soon on the Biden campaign? Will APC come out as a closet Trump supporter? Will a portal to an alternate timeline that isn't clown world open up and offer to save us all?
 
Honestly, if Trump manages to widen his lead in this poll to Arizona +5-7 like Baris predicts, I'd say the state already broke for Trump as of last month. It would highlight how fake most of the polls we see are. Not just oversampled, but outright fabricated to push a Biden landslide narrative that flat out is not happening.

Of course we need to see if this holds up come Monday, but I am looking forward to the break down come Monday or Tuesday. Keep an especially close eye on the Hispanic break down as Baris will be covering how 1st gen Hispanics, 2nd gen Hispanics, 3rd gen Hispanics, and I think 4th+ gen Hispanics will vote.

Edit: Trump is heading to Erie, Pennsylvania next Tuesday and Gastonia, North Carolina next Wednesday. I'm glad Trump is hitting Pennsylvania hard, but why does Trump need to rally again in North Carolina if Barrett is inevitably getting in the court and Baris's poll has Trump winning Florida by 1.6%? North Carolina IIRC has been voting to the right of Florida for decades.
Thr fact that Trump is up 6 points when the raw data is 70% women means Biden is dead in the water in Arizona. That is the most favorable possible outcome for his type of electorate and he is STILL fucking losing. I'm putting it as likely Trump now. And that STILL could be an underestimation.

Trump being this up in Arizona shows that those internal polls that were given out earlier were either complete noname Twatter fanfiction or horrible polls.

If the latter, Biden is probably expecting a massive victory without a substantive indicator of doing so. He probably thinks several states are locked up that are in the margin of error. We might be seeing the return of Hillary's hubris.
 
I know you've linked to Democracy Institute before, so would you consider it "worthwhile to consider"?
Yes, that's what I was considering when writing that. If they're right in 2020 on a state level, they'll shoot up to Gospel for me. But I worry they're a little rosy right now for Trump. They just project an electorate much different than others, but usually they're within the MOE with Trafalgar and Baris. Just when Baris gives Biden +2 in PA, DI will give it to Trump +1, or something like that. Barnes gave lots of kudos to Basham on one of his appearances with Baris this week, so that also raises my opinion of them. If Barnes, Baris, and Basham all come to the same conclusions, then that tells me it's seriously worth considering.

But Baris also hasn't done a national poll (and I don't expect him to) whereas DI focuses mostly on national polls. That's somewhat of the reason I consider them in a second tier. But it's not really by much—if you go by track record of EV results, the DI is one for one in elections. If you include Brexit, they're two for two.
 
Thr fact that Trump is up 6 points when the raw data is 70% women means Biden is dead in the water in Arizona. That is the most favorable possible outcome for his type of electorate and he is STILL fucking losing. I'm putting it as likely Trump now. And that STILL could be an underestimation.

Trump being this up in Arizona shows that those internal polls that were given out earlier were either complete noname Twatter fanfiction or horrible polls.

If the latter, Biden is probably expecting a massive victory without a substantive indicator of doing so. He probably thinks several states are locked up that are in the margin of error. We might be seeing the return of Hillary's hubris.
And we still have a few more days left for Baris to poll. Once it gets down to a 55% female - 45% male, Maricopa County could have a double digit lead. I don't see how Biden can make up the margin unless Pima, Santa Cruz, Apache, and Cococino swings dramatically left. Like 90% left or something like that. Baris is going to have to weigh the data against Trump just to show a competitive race.

Again, if Trump is at a 5-7% lead in Arizona, that means those two rallies he is going to do on the 19th might be less to improve his odds and more to boost up McSally so she can maybe eek out a narrow victory. @legalkochi might be on to something after all. It'd also, as you say, strongly contradict Biden's internal polls telling him he's going to win in a landslide. I just don't buy that Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina are going to flip to Biden. A 5-7% lead would also mean that Nevada is in play (especially since Trump can fight against voter fraud due to Barrett's impending confirmation on the ballot), Texas will likely have a double digit lead for Trump, and New Mexico - while still blue - could flip this decade. Especially if Hispanics are the ones driving the growth and not the whites.
 
If SJWs were caused by the religious right being strong, they would've cropped up hundreds of years earlier when the "religious right" was much stronger, not at secularism's peak in the 21st century. Just how powerful do you think the religious right was in the 1990s when SJWs grew up, anyway? Did they have institutional control - or were they just a loud, widely-mocked diversion? Put another way, was the kid whose half-senile grandma wouldn't let him watch cartoons or have pokeyman cards because they were the devil normal, or weird? It was weird where I grew up (btw I wasn't that kid).

I guess according to your logic, I should raise my kids as commie faggots if I want them to have traditionalist values later. We all exist in a state of permanent kneejerk rebellion, just like how you felt because dumb stupid christcuck grandma made you go to bed early instead of letting you stay up to watch Adult Swim all those years ago.

Again, religious right had many failings - chief among them focusing on stupid shit like pokemon cards instead of serious cultural issues - but those are issues of weakness, not of strength. You think because they were loud they were strong, but a dying animal is also loud. What you heard was a death rattle.

Counterpoint here, I think the decline of the Religious Right and traditionalist morality was inevitable but its death was a slow burn one. The reason why SJW's didn't pop up "hundreds of year earlier" is because of the unique conditions that allowed the decline of Christianity in the 20th Century. Here's a quick rundown of the events that led to where we got today.

1. The increased widespread literacy and the aftershocks of the Protestant Reformation
2. The austere and draconian sects that emerged from said Reformation, particularly in the Anglosphere
3. The Enlightenment as a whole, which may have had roots in Renaissance/Early Modern Christian thought but became increasingly humanistic over time.
4. The American Revolution and especially the French Revolution
5. The Industrial Revolution and the rise of technology and increased scientific evidence that debunked the Protestant Young Earth Creationist narrative (but not creationism as a whole, just so we're clear)
6. The horrors of World War I and World War II and their aftermath in Europe
7. The post-WWII economic boom in the United States
8. The end of the Cold War and the lack of a common enemy in the eyes of the American public

Points 6, 7, and 8 played the biggest role in breaking that hold and leading to the big rebellion and rise of the Woke Left and secularism

Also, my "christcuck grandma" didn't really care if I stayed up to watch Adult Swim. I'm not the strawman you seem to think I am. The scenario you described was considered the norm and not the exception where I grew up. I was one of the few who didn't have that experience growing up.

The whole "the Religious Right were just a diversion" argument doesn't hold water because the fundies did have a lot of institutional control in the Reagan years and were still strong on the regional level in the 90's and early 2000's.

Part of it is because they had a strong alliance with the neoconservative movement that largely bankrolled and propped up the Religious Right for close to the same reasons as the neoliberal corporatists back the Woke Left/SJW's, since the neolibs and neocons are more or less a corporatist uniparty.

It wasn't until Bush's blunders that the neocon-fundie alliance fell apart and the Religious Right rapidly lost power in Bush's second term and became the MSM whipping boy/controlled opposition that most of the Core Zoomers remember them as.

I do agree the Religious Right sperging about Halloween costumes and Pokemon cards was a result of their decline but not for the same reasons you think it was.

The really idiotic moments of the Religious Right like "the purple teletubby is queer!" and the attention whore antics of Westboro Baptist Church were signs of a death rattle but it was mainly because the Cold War ended.

The Soviet Union was a brutal militantly atheist dictatorship and the Marxist rhetoric of the New Left in the 60's and 70's and the collapse of the détente policies of Nixon and Carter by the end of the 70's were the fertile ground that allowed the Religious Right to get strong in the 80's and form their alliance with the neocons and corporatists.

The end of the Cold War in 1991 meant there was no common enemy to unite against and then the hysterics of the media coverage surrounding Ruby Ridge and Waco plus the actual miscarriage of justice that was the West Memphis Three court case was what began the decline in earnest during the 1990's and 2000's. Bush's failures really sped things up though.
 
Doral Florida peak viewers: 188.3k (only one capture, likely inaccurate)
Crowd:
EkfSqFoU8AA8iRa.jpeg
Georgia peak viewers: 216k
Crowd:
EkfZjQ9U0AAJ2bE.jpeg
The crowd outside because the venue and overflow got full:
EkgNeTzVgAE2hA-.jpeg
Georgia is not blue.
 
Thr fact that Trump is up 6 points when the raw data is 70% women means Biden is dead in the water in Arizona. That is the most favorable possible outcome for his type of electorate and he is STILL fucking losing. I'm putting it as likely Trump now. And that STILL could be an underestimation.
That's not what Baris said. He's saying that at the current projections, taking into account the gender gap, his results translate to a 5-7 point lead for Trump.

Screen Shot 2020-10-17 at 12.40.44 AM.png

So it's a 2 point race with a 72% female sample, not a 5-7 point race. Overall, it's probably a 5-7 point race.
 
That's not what Baris said. He's saying that at the current projections, taking into account the gender gap, his results translate to a 5-7 point lead for Trump.

View attachment 1667562
So it's a 2 point race with a 72% female sample, not a 5-7 point race. Overall, it's probably a 5-7 point race.
That was 3 hours ago.

This was a more recent post 2 hours ago with more responses in.
Baris.jpgEkfvMfXW0Aon1pG.jpeg
Its now a Trump +6 point lead in the raw, up from 2.

For reference, Maricopa went to Trump by only 3 points in 2016. And that was enough to carry the state by over 3 points.

Raz0rfist was right. Arizona isn't a swing state in 2020.
 
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That was 3 hours ago.

This was a more recent post 2 hours ago with more responses in.
View attachment 1667569View attachment 1667570
Its now a Trump +6 point lead in the raw, up from 2.
Keep in mind that the +6.4 Trump is in Maricopa County with 69.8% females, not the whole of Arizona. It is possible that once this is all done that Trump polls a double digit lead in Maricopa County but leads in Arizona by a smaller percentage of 5-7%.

Still great news though.
 
Plus, if any demographic has the highest Shy Trumper Effect, it has got to be 18.
Hey, that's me plus one. He isn't winning New York anyway unless millions of based Jews being jailed by Herr Cuomo turn up.

If the latter, Biden is probably expecting a massive victory without a substantive indicator of doing so. He probably thinks several states are locked up that are in the margin of error. We might be seeing the return of Hillary's hubris.
I'm pretty the MO for Biden (and Obama) is to flip the rust belt, but the red voters there should have intense contempt for Obama especially. CNN loves to go on about how the red gets riled up whenever they see him.
 
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Counterpoint here, I think the decline of the Religious Right and traditionalist morality was inevitable but its death was a slow burn one. The reason why SJW's didn't pop up "hundreds of year earlier" is because of the unique conditions that allowed the decline of Christianity in the 20th Century. Here's a quick rundown of the events that led to where we got today.

1. The increased widespread literacy and the aftershocks of the Protestant Reformation
2. The austere and draconian sects that emerged from said Reformation, particularly in the Anglosphere
3. The Enlightenment as a whole, which may have had roots in Renaissance/Early Modern Christian thought but became increasingly humanistic over time.
4. The American Revolution and especially the French Revolution
5. The Industrial Revolution and the rise of technology and increased scientific evidence that debunked the Protestant Young Earth Creationist narrative (but not creationism as a whole, just so we're clear)
6. The horrors of World War I and World War II and their aftermath in Europe
7. The post-WWII economic boom in the United States
8. The end of the Cold War and the lack of a common enemy in the eyes of the American public

Points 6, 7, and 8 played the biggest role in breaking that hold and leading to the big rebellion and rise of the Woke Left and secularism

Also, my "christcuck grandma" didn't really care if I stayed up to watch Adult Swim. I'm not the strawman you seem to think I am. The scenario you described was considered the norm and not the exception where I grew up. I was one of the few who didn't have that experience growing up.

The whole "the Religious Right were just a diversion" argument doesn't hold water because the fundies did have a lot of institutional control in the Reagan years and were still strong on the regional level in the 90's and early 2000's.

Part of it is because they had a strong alliance with the neoconservative movement that largely bankrolled and propped up the Religious Right for close to the same reasons as the neoliberal corporatists back the Woke Left/SJW's, since the neolibs and neocons are more or less a corporatist uniparty.

It wasn't until Bush's blunders that the neocon-fundie alliance fell apart and the Religious Right rapidly lost power in Bush's second term and became the MSM whipping boy/controlled opposition that most of the Core Zoomers remember them as.

I do agree the Religious Right sperging about Halloween costumes and Pokemon cards was a result of their decline but not for the same reasons you think it was.

The really idiotic moments of the Religious Right like "the purple teletubby is queer!" and the attention whore antics of Westboro Baptist Church were signs of a death rattle but it was mainly because the Cold War ended.

The Soviet Union was a brutal militantly atheist dictatorship and the Marxist rhetoric of the New Left in the 60's and 70's and the collapse of the détente policies of Nixon and Carter by the end of the 70's were the fertile ground that allowed the Religious Right to get strong in the 80's and form their alliance with the neocons and corporatists.

The end of the Cold War in 1991 meant there was no common enemy to unite against and then the hysterics of the media coverage surrounding Ruby Ridge and Waco plus the actual miscarriage of justice that was the West Memphis Three court case was what began the decline in earnest during the 1990's and 2000's. Bush's failures really sped things up though.

You give a good rundown of the rise of secularism in America, but IMO that doesn't indicate a failure of traditional morality itself - it shows the failure and/or subversion of institutions that were supposed to uphold it. Or more specifically, the co-opting of the religious right by republican political and corporate forces that didn't have any interest in actually implementing Christian values (just getting Christian votes).
 
You give a good rundown of the rise of secularism in America, but IMO that doesn't indicate a failure of traditional morality itself - it shows the failure and/or subversion of institutions that were supposed to uphold it. Or more specifically, the co-opting of the religious right by republican political and corporate forces that didn't have any interest in actually implementing Christian values (just getting Christian votes).

Well, I do think the failure of traditional morality to successfully weather the conditions of the 20th Century is what led to it getting coopted by corporate forces and politicians looking for cheap votes.

The rest of the post has some side sperging that's largely unrelated, so I'll spoiler it, but you might actually find it interesting.

To look at it from a Biblical perspective, it's possible this was part of a divine plan. The Bible states that just before the End Times, there will be rampant wickedness and total godlessness which allows the Beast and the False Prophet to come to power.

I know there is a lot of debate on how much of Revelation was allegorical and how much of it was actual literal prophecy but the Four Gospels also discuss some of the points that get brought up in Revelation so I figured it'd be worth mentioning.

I'm not quite sure where traditional Catholicism stands on it, but I do know that hardcore fundies think it's 100% literal millennialist predictions of future events while secular scholars think it's 100% allegory and social commentary on the Roman persecutions of early Christians.

The Rapture isn't really a Biblical thing. Catholics don't believe in it and neither do Eastern Orthodox or mainline Protestants. Even among Evangelical Protestantism, it's an extremely controversial issue with just as many detractors as defenders.

Given how the Antichrist were to come to power before the End Times as described, that would mean that Christianity would be a dead or nearly dead religion. Like, we're talking it'd have the same numbers as pagan polytheism or Zoroastrianism do today. Small fringe groups and individuals who follow it and maybe some revivalist/reconstructionist groups but very much a small minority nonetheless.

We're not quite at that point yet, but I think it could get to that point once the Boomers completely die out unless the Core/Late Zoomers and Generation Alpha really do live up to the /pol/ memes and go full Deus Vult.
 
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