That is such a fucking joke. There is no WAY that is true. They're completely high. Why the fuck are they trying to cook the polls? Trump supporters aren't going to believe a single one and now they're fucking panicking 'G-g-get out and vo-vote please!! HELP!' Why are people going to go out and vote for you? You've already won, right?
Also this is all based off early voting. Pretty much all republicans are going to go vote in person.
Polls are complete fucking garbage. I know that's redundant and I know it's been said so many times that the sentence is starting to develop a smooth spot like it's the fucking Blarney Stone, but the biggest reason that polls are absolute dogshit apart from all of the other reasons that have been listed off since the beginning of time, are that polls and percentage-based predictions can't be tested and verified after the fact. Their results are never reproducible and they have no veracity.
Say that a poll puts one person at 80% and another at 15% and another at 5%. There's only a binary solution at the end of that equation though: One candidate wins. You only get to roll the dice
one time. You're not aiming for an average amount of wins over time, you're not rolling the dice again to hope for a better candidate, and the situational conditions change
tremendously with every single election, so what's the point of reducing it to percentages? Even if you ignore the fraudulent or misguided methods that go into each poll, what's the point if the outcome is singular and binary?
Does anyone ever go back and
prove that Trump had a 2% chance of winning and actually won the electoral lottery? Do they go back down through all of the numbers and verify with 100% certainty that Candidate A had 58% and Candidate B had 42%, and lay out exactly how they came to that precise, mathematical denomination and how the candidate managed to roll the dice in a way that lead them to beating their opponent despite allegedly having a smaller or larger percentage?
No. They're completely wiped after every election and everyone forgets about them. Without looking it up, what was Obama's chance to win the 2008 election? What was George Bush's? What was Clinton's?
Polls are wishful thinking; they're a random-number generator based on incredibly flawed data, incredibly limited focus groups, and their results can't be quantified after an election. There's no "has a % chance to win" because the system isn't set up to work like that in the first place. Even if it was absolutely bereft of fraud, the entire methodology behind polling is completely broken and completely unrelated to the electoral system.
Polls are meaningless.
