2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Salubrious said:
I may be repeating myself, but the size of the win he's predicting is the weirdest part of all this.

If Silver said Biden would win 290-248 and had a 58% chance of winning, I would disagree with him, but at least those sound plausible.

Silver thinking Biden has an 87% chance of winning, is most likely to get 400 electoral votes, and is 50-50 in Georgia, and not once questioning any of this should be a firable offense. Nobody can possibly think Biden is that big a favorite, and this man's literal job is to be evaluating this.
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Yeah like if Plastic gave Biden a win in a close race or at least 300 maximum, that is believable, I wouldn't want that but if it happens I can see it going on. Nate somehow became more delusional since Biden actually would've not been the candidate if he lost the state of South Carolina in the Primaries instead it would've been Bernie, Warren, or Buttigieg. Biden was not the big favorite in his own party because it was Sanders or Buttigieg who were winning the primaries till Biden got his first win which led to Mayor Pete and that other lady to drop out to endorse Biden while Warren stayed in to split the progressive vote.

Then COVID came and Bernie dropped out after seeing the writing on the wall.

I personally think the race is at a 50/50 stage and it could go to either candidate since TDS is much stronger hate than I've seen for any incumbent president but it could be a vocal minority here are four possible outcomes:

Narrow Biden Victory (279 - 259): Biden takes Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan along with Hillary's other states that she won in 2016.

Biden Blowout (308 - 230): Biden gets the above mentioned states but also would get Ohio and Arizona if there is a huge turnout in favor of Biden.

Narrow Trump Victory (285 - 253): Trump gets all the states he has won back in 2016 but he doesn't get Pennsylvania which is the one state that Biden has been gunning for since the beginning.

Trump Blowout (325 - 213): Trump gets all the states he has won in 2016 but he would also get New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota.

The Narrow Victories are the more likely scenarios to happen for me, but that is my own prediction and it can be disproven based on early voting and election day.
 
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Harvey Danger said:
(let's see, have I done it this week yet... nope. So!)

Weekly reminder that Hilary Clinton won California by 4.3 million votes, while Trump won the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes. She did that off the back of an unexpected 1 million extra voter surge in CA, which none of the polls predicted during the campaigns.

If you want a path for Trump to win the popular vote, you could start with assuming that 1 million surge doesn't happen again. You'd still need to pick up 1.9 million from somewhere. Maybe Trump gets out the WWC more than he did in 2016, or peels off more Hispanics, etc. Then he'd need to get out every single voter from 2016 plus a 3% increase in that base to break even.

How likely is Trump to get a 3% increase? Well, Obama's popular vote went down 5% when he won re-election, Bush II's went up 23%, Clinton's went up 5%, Reagan's went up 24%. Which means fuck if I know, it's 2020, nobody knows.

So if you're looking to bet on Trump winning the popular vote, or get emotionally invested in the possibility, you've got to find some justification for that 3% increase somewhere.
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I would say either the Amish, or this scenario:

Because less illegals are voting, and assuming they would vote Dem, that would be less votes that are not for Trump. Therefore, while not more votes in total for Trump, a larger percentage would be for Trump.

OR all the libertarian/third party vote (which iirc was very high, not quite reaching but 5% but I heard it was close) goes to Trump.
 
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Truthboi said:
Yeah like if Plastic gave Biden a win in a close race or at least 300 maximum, that is believable, I wouldn't want that but if it happens I can see it going on. Nate somehow became more delusional since Biden actually would've not been the candidate if he lost the state of South Carolina in the Primaries instead it would've been Bernie, Warren, or Buttigieg. Biden was not the big favorite in his own party because it was Sanders or Buttigieg who were winning the primaries till Biden got his first win which led to Mayor Pete and that other lady to drop out to endorse Biden while Warren stayed in to split the progressive vote.

Then COVID came and Bernie dropped out after seeing the writing on the wall.

I personally think the race is at a 50/50 stage and it could go to either candidate since TDS is much stronger hate than I've seen for any incumbent president but it could be a vocal minority here are four possible outcomes:

Narrow Biden Victory (279 - 259): Biden takes Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan along with Hillary's other states that she won in 2016.

Biden Blowout (308 - 230): Biden gets the above mentioned states but also would get Ohio and Arizona if there is a huge turnout in favor of Biden.

Narrow Trump Victory (285 - 253): Trump gets all the states he has won back in 2016 but he doesn't get Pennsylvania which is the one state that Biden has been gunning for since the beginning.

Trump Blowout (325 - 213): Trump gets all the states he has won in 2016 but he would also get New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota.

The Narrow Victories are the more likely scenarios to happen for me, but that is my own prediction and it can be disproven based on early voting and election day.
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I agree with most of this.

The only thing I would disagree with is that it's pretty well known (I think) that if the popular vote is close that Trump wins the electoral college in a landslide due to the massive gaps in California and New York. Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million.

I think the popular vote is really close either way (I'm going with a slight Trump win). In that case, Trump wins the electoral college in a landslide.

heyitsmike said:
I beg to differ. You can make a Democrat voter believe whatever you want them to if it's what they want to hear.
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Ok yeah, I can't argue this.
 
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RockPaper said:
This kind of thing agrees with what Baris says about him: He's just a poll-watcher and aggregator. He doesn't "analyze" anything, really.

If a ridiculous poll says Biden is up 12, he just includes it as if it corresponds to something real.
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Yeah, he doesn't disregard polls that are so obviously biased for Democrats. His thinking 400+ EV for Biden as remotely possibly is just pure inanity. Biden is so uninspiring, yet he's somehow going to best Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 1996? Sleepy Joe Biden?!

Trump's base would have to be abandoning him for that to happen and Trump would have to be gaining no new voters. Both of those are not occurring though.
 
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Tony Bobulinski statement to the media. At the end he says 'I will not be taking questions'. Some journo says 'That doesn't mean we won't be asking questions' but he walks off. Nicely done. Get in there, drop the bomb, GTFO before Communist air defences have a chance to engage just like you'd do in the Navy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqeO0ODwYCA
https://archive.vn/wip/FuiD4
 
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The new Biden defense:
1603411496903.jpg
"I couldn' have taken a bribe, because I didn't pay taxes on it!"
Admitting to one crime to disprove another is some galaxy brained thinking.
 
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I was grabbing takeout for lunch and the restaurant had CNN on and they had a pollster enthusiastically predicting Biden would turn Texas and Florida light blue and sweep the Rust Belt, so that's the level of trustworthy unbiased data Nate Californium is incorporating into his predictions. Also unrelated except for general democrat lunacy but the news ticker then declared CASES IN MISSISSIPPI SURGE DUE TO UNMASKED WHITE PEOPLE which caused the guy in line behind to say it out loud in a bewildered tone.
 
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Salubrious said:
Just a quick counterargument, Trump wouldn't need to pick up 1.9 million; he would need 950K to flip.

Everyone that goes from D to R count's as "two votes". Not only is it a vote that the D doesn't get, it's a vote the R gets.

So the 2016 election was 65,853,514 to 62,984,928.

Take away 1 million from California, and it's 64,853,514 to 62,984,928,

Get 1 million to flip from D to R and it's 63,853,514 to 63,984,928 in Trump's favor.
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Yes, but I'm assuming 0 flips in my math. Trump gets 100% of his 2016 vote, Biden gets 100% of Hillary's votes, except that 1 million surge from CA goes away. (The unwritten assumption there is they were all super eager to vote for a first female President.)

That's the baseline for speculating about the popular vote. You have 1.9 million to catch up, whether you make it up in base turnout, Clinton voter flips, 3rd party flips, completely new voters, etc. And Biden will be doing the same thing to try and flip disgruntled Trump voters, kick the Green Party off the ballot, sign up new younger voters, etc. So it's not enough to have a story for Trump making gains, you need to show him out-pacing the same effects on the other side to make up the 2016 gap.

I know everyone likes to talk about enthusiasm on both sides, but there's also unprecedented things going on with the mechanisms of voting itself, which might generally affect overall turnout. If that happens, Biden is as likely to pick up previously unengaged voters as Trump, maybe more with the vote by mail push. So you still have to show a reason why Trump would pick up more than Biden in a heavy turnout year.

Ultimately the popular vote is a side show to the EC tallies. But if we're going to predict an outcome, it's important to get the why correct, instead of just guessing the binary outcome and claiming insight.
 
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