2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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So with Biden rallies getting raided by Trump Supporters, what are odds that this ends up demoralizing dem voters? Since these guys are popping up in blue zones.
I think it shows there are way more Trump supporters out there that the media won’t show. And now with the Hunter shit coming out Jesus it’s gonna get worse for them.
 
The fact that "suburban women" are still up in the air because they're tired of Trump and want decency/normalcy is also stupid. I couldn't stand seeing the orange bastard in '16, and I got used to it and now I like the guy, probably because we stopped with the CNN after the election.

Honestly, the guy gave them so many benefits yet they are unsure because they've now just decided to give it up? And it's not even a "hungry for change" mentality like Obama peddled in '08.

Part of the problem, I think, is that there is a certain type of suburban voter that only voted Republican because they liked the economic benefits of extreme free-trade/outsourcing and cheap migrant labor, both things that Trump and his base have been hostile too and have tried to roll back. So they're drawn to Biden-Harris because it would be a restoration to that status quo. I mean, I passed by one house today that had a big "Republican for Biden-Harris" sign draped across their fence, and I'm guessing that's the reason behind it.
 
I was visiting with family today for our usual fall gathering and couldn't believe the things I was hearing. Our family is generally pretty conservative, but one aunt and uncle and their large brood have always been the liberals of our group. Our family isn't nearly mean or horrible enough to argue over politics so this hasn't ever been a problem.

The vitriol for Biden was palpable. Even their adult children, who are right at TikTok age where you think they'd be "socially conscious" and all that were joking about how fucking horrible and unlikable he was and how awful he was at the debate. My younger "punk" female cousin even voted early for Don. It was a real surprise. I'm curious just how much the average democrat family dislikes the guy.

Also, on a side note, the enthusiasm gap is absolutely gaping. There are more Trump flags than Biden signs in my town, easily by three or four times over. I think one Biden sign even disappeared after the debate.
 
Yes but we don't talk about it because a lot of people around the world were pretty cool with Hitler until he got a bit carried away with the land grabs. They don't teach that because the narrative quickly became "Hitler was really evil and murderous and for no reason at all he took a lot of land and then for no reason at all he rounded up a bunch of people and then for no reason at all he tried to conquer most of Europe and then for no reason at all..."
tl;dr hitler evil and that's all you need to know
You can find old newspaper clips from before WW2 where it was basically like "Man this Hitler guy is really busy trying to bring Germany back up to world power status".
I notice there's been a recent push among history communicators (such as Indy Neidell of The Great War) to say that Hitler was actually a Mobutu-style kleptocrat with amazing PR early on, as if to pre-empt this argument. "Sure he wasn't seen as the embodiment of evil immediately, that would be ridiculous! He was just like Trump until he started a war, got rekt, and then had all the evil shit uncovered".
 
Also, on a side note, the enthusiasm gap is absolutely gaping. There are more Trump flags than Biden signs in my town, easily by three or four times over. I think one Biden sign even disappeared after the debate.
From what I'm seeing there are more Trump supports at Biden rallies than Biden supports at Biden Rallies. I dont know if its organized or what but thats the most striking thing to me.
 
Part of the problem, I think, is that there is a certain type of suburban voter that only voted Republican because they liked the economic benefits of extreme free-trade/outsourcing and cheap migrant labor, both things that Trump and his base have been hostile too and have tried to roll back. So they're drawn to Biden-Harris because it would be a restoration to that status quo. I mean, I passed by one house today that had a big "Republican for Biden-Harris" sign draped across their fence, and I'm guessing that's the reason behind it.
Still, over 90% of Republicans still back Trump. No "real" conservative wants anything Biden/Harris/the Democratic Party are peddling.

From the looks of it, there will be more registered Democrats voting for Trump than the other way around.
 
From what I'm seeing there are more Trump supports at Biden rallies than Biden supports at Biden Rallies. I dont know if its organized or what but thats the most striking thing to me.
It's impossible for them to be organized because the Biden events are not promoted far enough in advance. This is spontaneous enthusiasm from Trump supporters.
 
Page 666...what surprises will Sunday bring?

Interesting assertions by BaldingsWorld on Hunter's China dealings based on a report he received:

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Interesting facts about NM. It is actually more Republican in RV than in 2004 when Dubya won it.
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Will it flip? My Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it." But if you see a Trump rally there or a Biden sighting, something is going on behind the scenes.

I am not sure about Rasmussen anymore. There is just way too many inconsistencies with their polling. Like Ohio is Biden +4 but Florida is Trump +4 while its tied nationally. Its just too volitile to make sense.
That's surprising to hear. If so, Bush must have had a massive Democratic crossover to win the state - that or he did exceptionally well among Independents there. Given that New Mexico is fixing to reach 50% Hispanics (and is already a plurality), no doubt that indicates he is going to do considerably better among Hispanics than in 2020, especially with the state having a very old Hispanic population only outmatched by Texas and maybe Arizona.

The problem is, it's too late to flip the state. States outside the Rust Belt have made up their mind on who they are breaking for and I have no doubt New Mexico has already broke for Biden. It would be a objective waste of time for Trump to hold a rally there. Best they can hope is that New Mexico becomes a light blue state this year, The good the people googling how they can change their vote in an state dependent on oil to function are going to remember this for 2024 and a populist candidate can make the state competitive. First, however, Trump has to win.
I'm not understanding why people are making the claim the debate didn't change anything because of early voting. I thought it was pretty clear the early voting is not exactly favoring Dems as much as they'd like.
The issue is that due to an unusually large number of early votes, we're going to have a lot of early voting regrets who wished they did not vote for Biden. That being said, it is an issue that Trump can overcome on Election Day, but he absolutely must get his base to turn out. I agree that the debate has changed the race, but had things been different, we could have seen states like New Mexico become competitive because of Biden's plan to ban the oil industry.

Voting elections laws have become too loose if the fact states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, New York, and California count ballots after Election Day is any indication.
I can't find it anymore, but I just saw a tally of the early voting or mail in ballots in PA and the Dems were waaaaay ahead.

Searched but I can't find it anymore.
You might be referring to this. Given that the state does log in party preference information, the data is likely more reliable in states like there, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina than say, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. So far, the total is a little less than 25% from the 2016 results with a fifty-one margin between Democrats and Republicans. There are a few things though,

  • The state (to my knowledge) only allows mail-in voting, which was always going to be disproportionately lopsided towards Biden anyway, meaning the vast majority are going to be Biden's base, left-leaning independents, and Never Trumpers Republicans
  • Most Pennsylvanian voters who are Republicans or Independents - who Trump is winning if you look at Baris's Biden+2.3 poll back in mid-October - do not trust the governor to not steal the state if they go and early vote, which is why they are planning to attack the ballots by Election Day

Baris also pointed out that Bucks once had an election where early voting significantly favored Democrats at first. Then Republicans came in at the end and won. I don't know the whole story, but the strategy worked before and no doubt they'll do it again on Election Day.
Mainly in response to the Michigan segment. I think Michigan will go hard red.

First Michigan is not a California or New York Blue state, its Union Blue and socially conservative. It has one of the highest gun ownership rates in the country (I think its higher than Texas now) and does not like China because as they see it they steal their jobs.

Also right now Gary Peters is running a really close race with Jones for Senate (Jones is the GOP candidate) There was also the open Michigan Petition that garnered over 500k signatures last I checked, It only need 340K. The Governor Recall petition only got derailed because of an embezzlement scheme the founder of the movement get caught up in. Also Michigan has had its economy rocked by Whitmers draconian Shut downs. Not to mention there was an attempted Ku in Michigan, even though the guys involved seemed more like left leaning fringe elements it does demonstrate that there is serious anger at the current Gubernatorial administration in Michigan.

In michigan Local news is actually talking about the Email scandals, the NRA is running tons of gun vote ads, and there have been multiple high profile unlock Michigan rallies (remember Michigan brought guns to their rallies before it was popular).

The other thing too is that Biden decided to pass on Whitmer for VP. Now none of this bodes well for Whitmer who is not up for election but will be in two years, but with a man who has many allegations against him for having ties to Chinese business, is very Anti Second Amendment, and wants to implement a hard 3 month nationwide lockdown, do you really think people in Michigan will go and vote for that.

I admit I could be wrong, but I don't think the Trump campaign is skipping Michigan because they think its a lost cause, they may think quiet the opposite.
Trump's campaign is actually not skipping Michigan. They're already doing another campaign stop there next week. Even if Trump is ahead in Michigan, it's not wise for him to rest on his laurels in case something damaging about him were to come out in these final days (I doubt it but you never know).

Also I think you are overestimating Whitmer's incompetence and corruption as a governor as something that helps Trump. Just because the people there may hate Whitmer does not mean they hold the same view towards Biden (even if they should). Obama nostalgia is a powerful factor and will be in Michigan since the administration bailed it out. Trump also has problems with suburban voters, especially women, and the state has plenty of them. While it is interesting that Whitmer has been desperate enough to demand people to vote for Biden to end the lock down (which lol won't happen if he wins), calling it a hard red state is wishful thinking this year.

That said, things do look better for Trump than they did a month ago. The fact Michigan no longer counts ballots after Election Day will help reduce fraud in the state. I'm interested to see if Trump can keep the state and if so, if he can improve his margin from last time. Keep an eye out on Wayne County and see if it turns a lighter shade of blue. If so and if Trump can keep his margin in the working class part of the region, Michigan might become a light red state.

While I'm at it, could you hunt down those local news where they talk about the Biden scandal? That's notable if true as I expected only right-wing or wrongthinking people to discuss it.
 
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Were some of the mask showing political leanings (MAGA or Biden-Harris? Because either the Democrats in your area are just bumrushing to early vote or something's really up.

I would say it's because of legal reasons but...

No political logos. That's illegal in polling places in my state anyway (and more others, right?)
Early voting is in the courthouse where masks are officially required, but it's the kind of town that even the regular staff weren't wearing masks though they were required, just the election staff. People just scared of getting kicked out/trying to avoid a hassle?

If I were to guess, I'd say the election staff and voters wore masks to avoid any hassle and get things over as quickly and quietly as possible
 
I think the people who bring up the enthusiasm difference are forgetting one key factor, and yes, it is a variant of TDS.

People might not like Biden, but they'll vote for him just to get Trump out of office. They're not gonna go out and get a sign, or attend one of his rallies, or whatever, but they'll still vote for him if it gets Trump out of power. They think that he is the reason everything has gone to shit, unjustifiably, or not, and incorrectly think that voting him out will fix it. To them, it's like going to the dentist to get a root canal, or something. Yeah, it sucks ass, and you're not excited, or enthusiastic for it at all, but it's for the greater good, so-to-speak. Better take care of it now before it festers even more.

They don't screech about Trump on Twitter, or whatever, they're the opposite of those folk. They're sick of the screeching, and just want people to shut up, and think that if they vote for Biden, they'll finally have some peace, and quiet again. They're wrong, but that's probably what their mindset is.

This is why I still think it's too early to call this race yet. Biden might've shot himself in the foot repeatedly over the last few weeks, but TDS still might be enough for him to win. I'm not trying to be a doomer, or anything. I just think it's something we should keep in mind.
 
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I think the people who bring up the enthusiasm difference are forgetting one key factor, and yes, it is a variant of TDS.

People might not like Biden, but they'll vote for him just to get Trump out of office. They're not gonna go out and get a sign, or attend one of his rallies, or whatever, but they'll still vote for him if it gets Trump out of power. They think that he is the reason everything has gone to shit, unjustifiably, or not, and incorrectly think that voting him out will fix it. To them, it's like going to the dentist to get a root canal, or something. Yeah, it sucks ass, and you're not excited, or enthusiastic for it at all, but it's for the greater good, so-to-speak.

They don't screech about Trump on Twitter, or whatever, they're the opposite of those folk. They're sick of the screeching, and just want people to shut up, and think that if they vote for Biden they'll finally have some peace, and quiet again. They're wrong, but that's probably what their mindset is.

This is why I still think it's too early to call this race yet. Biden might've shot himself in the foot repeatedly over the last few weeks, but TDS still might be enough for him to win. I'm not trying to be a doomer, or anything. I just think it's something we should keep in mind.
That is a true factor to consider but I can voice some disagreements

1. Biden wants to go harder on lockdowns and has stated as much along with wanting to raise taxes + cut blue collar jobs. Those have become increasingly unpopular with voters given how many people just want things back to the way they were before Covid.

2. The polls that accurately predicted 2016 and elections prior to it, have shown Trump leading again.

3. I have seen many people who hate both candidates online and would rather not vote, and given how a good bunch of normies are tired of two sides being terrible, that can effect turnout.

4. Enthusiasm is a trend (which could be broken this year) on what presidential candidates get elected as Obama would not have won if he was as enthusiastic as sandpaper.

I do agree with you though that the people who just want Trump gone could factor in to a probably Trump defeat, I just think it is hard to call and there could be some factors against that.
 
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Page 666 and 45 notifications? This guy is my kind of antichrist.
Also, viewing the new content. Trump is supremely confident of a win. Whether he's right or not, he thinks he has it.
 
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