alright, can someone maybe give me a headstart on where to find basic info on how many american industry jobs Trump brought back and what kinds? Perhaps also, some other things like perhaps effective immigration data that is concrete or whatever else, because I don't know how much that I sense is materialized relative to myself. A lot of things that trump says or his executive orders are nice and seem like they should do something, but i get a vaporware feeling from a decent chunk of it(now some of that is intent to research and i haven't done as much as I should). I know that chunks of the wall are built, but I don't get a tangible feeling of what that actually entails, however. I"ve seen some footage and some data that is real, and I know that there is a site that you can go to in order to see the progress of it. I know that he is the only valid choice at the moment, but I still want to get a sense of what I am voting for, because I certainly have a sense of who I am voting against. I just need to have a little push in order for me to see what is actually concrete out there about what trump has done if you can be so kind for a moment. I also know that the foxcon factory had problems and is a sitting duck and a nonstarter, I want to feel what is tangible and real in our country at the moment.
This is really tough to find straightforward statistics on because every claim is so politicized. But here's an article from this summer that attempts to summarize the various forms of legal immigration and change since 2016, with overall numbers down by about half:
For manufacturing, trendline shows a ramp-up under Trump (obviously this year's Chinavirus drop not shown, hope it reverts to the trend of the past few years):
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pls cut it out with the libtard shit California.
Even with Federal Forests, California has authority over 14 million acres of forest.
At least they can blame this on natural causes, their power grid collapsing is entirely the result of their governance.
Okay so again Idaho and Arizona had more acres burn than California last year despite being maybe just a tad smaller in size.
Is there not enough shit you can criticize California for that you have to start reaching so hard you are blaming wildfires on their poor forest management because of some blue state agenda? I looked it up the federal government manages over 15 TIMES more forest in California than the state owns. So maybe placing the blame on this one particular issue on being a blue state despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary is a tad stupid and you should stick to the hundreds of actual issues where that applies instead of standing up for every stupid thing someone you agree with says as a throw away applause line.
Okay so again Idaho and Arizona had more acres burn than California last year despite being maybe just a tad smaller in size.
Is there not enough shit you can criticize California for that you have to start reaching so hard you are blaming wildfires on their poor forest management because of some blue state agenda? I looked it up the federal government manages over 15 TIMES more forest in California than the state owns. So maybe placing the blame on this one particular issue on being a blue state despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary is a tad stupid and you should stick to the hundreds of actual issues where that applies instead of standing up for every stupid thing someone you agree with says as a throw away applause line.
why are you shilling so hard for Commiefornia? why are you busting a blood vessel over people blaming Commiefornia for pumping more money into protecting illegals than their forests?
I'm not picking on you, but how exactly are they hanging themselves? Twitter and Facebook are two of the richest and most influential companies on the planet, and Dorsey and Zuckerberg are disgustingly wealthy personally. This kind of news about Facebook deploying "measures" to influence political unrest is actually quite frightening and I read it as more of an arrogant flexing of their power, secure in the knowledge that the government has nobody in it that will hold them accountable for the incalculable societal damage they've caused.
This borders on doomerism, but I am genuinely concerned about the amount of power these companies have. Between Google, Twitter, and Facebook, they've created the most immense and pervasive psychological warfare and spying apparatus in history. I realize the DOJ has recently made noises about busting up Google, but it seems to me that we've moved past the point where antitrust measures will be adequate to address the problem and into the realm of "literally declare them enemy nations and go to war." It will be interesting to see if a second term Trump (assuming he wins) will even be able to make a dent in their metastasizing growth.
Okay so again Idaho and Arizona had more acres burn than California last year despite being maybe just a tad smaller in size.
Is there not enough shit you can criticize California for that you have to start reaching so hard you are blaming wildfires on their poor forest management because of some blue state agenda? I looked it up the federal government manages over 15 TIMES more forest in California than the state owns. So maybe placing the blame on this one particular issue on being a blue state despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary is a tad stupid and you should stick to the hundreds of actual issues where that applies instead of standing up for every stupid thing someone you agree with says as a throw away applause line.
Private lands are still subject to California law. The significant losses to houses and towns are because it’s extremely difficult to actually legally manage forest property. Stuff like removing fallen trees is way more of a hassle in California than it should be.
Still have no idea how this election will play out, I thought Hunter literally fucking kids would have more of an impact, but it’s clear people are just numb from 4 years of news hype over bullshit.
Which network or YT channel are you guys going get your election coverage from?
I think I'm going to watch either TYT or MSNBC to see them breakdown emotionally in real time. I've got my fingers crossed for an on-air suicide for when Trump wins.
Which is why I think he will win. Biden put a lid for the next couple of days and Trump will be holding rallies. I honestly think Trump will be re-elected. People want to see a winner in a president not what Slow Joe represents which is doom and gloom.
Which is why I think he will win. Biden put a lid for the next couple of days and Trump will be holding rallies. I honestly think Trump will be re-elected. People want to see a winner in a president not what Slow Joe represents which is doom and gloom.
If Trump wins again via Electoral College but not the popular vote, could faithless electors save Biden's bacon? We know there'd be spergouts and renewed calls to abolish the EC.
I'm just trying to play Devil's advocate here. Trump, by all metrics, deserves to win, but it's not over until he is sworn in for a second term on 1/20. I'm worried to death over some hitherto-unseen cruel trick of Clown World getting in the way.
Yesterday, I decided to look into early voting in Miami-Dade County. Earlier today after it updated, I decided to check again. Baris has been talking a lot about how due to the Cubans and Venezuelans becoming a solid red voting block towards Trump, Miami-Dade will shift to a lighter blue than usual. I personally believe it, but I wanted to give it a courtesy glance since Larry Scheweikart talked about early voting (granted some of the numbers he reported were off) and how well Republicans apparently were doing. Miami-Dade County is the most populous county and as such, voted the most in 2016 with 980,204 votes (archive). It was also the third most Democratic county in the state with Clinton winning 63.68% of the vote compared to Trump's 34.07%, a 29.61 point margin in favor of Clinton.
People talk about how early voting is going so well for the Republicans despite the Democratic advantage. I believe reading the tea leaf for early voting based solely on party break down is a massive head ache and not an issue I want to work myself up over, especially not compare it to previous years. But I was looking at the in-person early voting in Miami-Dade and boy was I shocked (picture from today),
In-Person Early Voting
Vote By Mail
The third column are Republicans, fourth columns are Democrats, fifth column are third-parties, and sixth column are Independents
In one of the bluest counties in the state, Republicans were beating Democrats when it comes to in-person early voting. Not Election Day voting, in-person early voting. Granted, Democrats have a significant lead in VBM, but that is to be expected. Even then, that lead is less impressive when you realize that they only have a twenty-two point lead of Republicans there. With that revelation, I knew it was worth looking into, so I made an exception into looking into early voting and broke down the percentage of Republican, Democratic, third-parties, and Independent,
Republican
90,308 / 236,009 = 38.26%
Democratic
87,849 / 236,009 = 37.22%
Third-Party
2724 / 236,009 = 1.15%
Independent
55,128 / 236,009 = 23.36%
Republican
95,910 / 372,516 = 25.75%
Democratic
177,400 / 372,516 = 47.62%
Third-Party
3878 / 372,516 = 1.04%
Independent
95,328 / 372,516 = 25.59%
After that, I combined the early voting and VBM total and got this,
A thirteen point lead between Republicans and Democrats is not impressive for Biden. They should be closer to thirty percents, not nearing single digits leads in biggest place for Democrats to make gains. They cannot afford such a significant bleeding. That said, the gap alone does not tell the whole story. There's still a significant Independent voting share happening and obviously the county is not turning red anytime soon. So let's break down numbers In Biden's favor to see if a shift really is happening.
Republican
.3060 x .85 = 26.01%
Democrat
.4359 x .05 = 2.18%
Third-Party = 0%
Independent
0.2472 x 0.425 = 10.51%
Total
26.01 + 2.18 + 10.51 = 38.7%
Assuming that Trump loses a significant portion of his base, gets almost no Democratic crossover, gets zero third-party support, and gets trashed by Independents by fifteen points (and I factored in extra edges due to VBM), he still gains 4.6% compared to last year. That's a huge increase given Miami-Dade's population. Now let's look at Biden,
Republican
0.3060 x .15 = 4.59%
Democrat
0.4359 x .95 = 41.41%
Third-Party
1.08%
Independent
0.2472 x 0.575 = 14.21%
Total
4.59 + 41.41 + 1.08 + 14.21 = 61.29%
Assuming that Biden has Obama-level enthusiasm among Democrats, gets Republican crossover like what George H. W. Bush got with Democrats in 1988, he gets all of the third-party votes, and Independents flocks to him like birds migrating South, he is still losing over 2% compared to Clinton. In a county like Miami-Dade that is supposed to be one of his best places to win votes and in a state that is decided by tens of thousands of votes, he can't afford this kind of bleeding. Let's take a look at the margin in this worst-case scenario for Trump,
[Trump
38.7 - 34.07 = 4.63
Biden
63.68 - 61.29 = 2.39
4.63 + 2.39 = 7.02% swing towards Trump
If voting in Miami-Dade were to stop today and Election Day got cancelled, Trump would already have a 7.02 point swing towards him. That's already better than Mitt Romney's performance in 2012 (archive) and again, assumes the worst case scenario. It also does not factor in the seven additional early voting days left that will almost certainly widen the margin and Election Day where Trump supporters will be the vast majority of voters. With that considered, these are big numbers for Trump as in this scenario, he is only 22.59 points behind Biden. Just for fun, we'll also apply the results if Trump and Clinton had these same margins in 2016 (total votes, not early),
Clinton
980,204 x .6129 = 600,767
Swing
600,767 - 624,146 = -23,379
Trump
980,204 x .387 = 379,339
Swing
379,339 - 333,999 = 45,340
Total
23,379 + 45,340 = 68,719
Overall, Trump right now is looking at at the absolute worst 68.719 more voters from that county than last year and that is assume we do not see an increase in voters (which is going to happen). I am confident that Miami-Dade will see a double digit swing towards Trump, which would net him about a 100,000 voters just from that county alone. Heck, if current trends continue, we may see evidence of that before early voting ends. If there was proof that Cubans and Venezuelans were turning out for Trump before Election Day, this is pretty close to it.
I'll come back to it after early voting ends on October 31th and see if my predictions come true. Those who wants to bet on Florida for Trump can do so with a reasonable amount of confidence.
AND A BERNIE CAMPAIGN AD MAKING BIDEN LOOK BAD
