But on the other hand, people were actually excited to vote for Hillary. As despised as she was by many, Hillary had real enthusiasm behind her campaign and people were really banking on the "First Whamyn in the White House" thing. There were marches to show support for her. With Biden there seems to be no real enthusiasm for the guy. The online rallying cry for the Dem candidate this time wasn't "Hope and Change" or "Stronger Together" or even "Build Back Better", it was "Vote Blue no Matter Who".
And Trump now has 4 years of work to show under his belt as well. People who didn't vote for him or voted for Hillary before because "Better the devil you know." now know how Trump rolls and might vote for him. Being the incumbent usually helps with the chances of being reelected, unless you fuck up massively. It also helps the Democratic party has gone off the deep end in the four last years and done it's best to embrace the fringe elements of it while pushing others away from them.
I don't know enough about the early voting to offer an opinion on it, but it could go either way.
Not saying Trump has it in the bag by any means. The opposition has become fiercer, but Trump has more advantages now than he had in 2016 too.