Arizona is hard to say, but I slightly lean towards yes. At least, I think he has a better chance there than CO or NM, but I see the same bad omens I see everywhere in the west- Californians and other outsiders moved in, the boomers are dying off while Hispanics continue grow, homelessness is increasing, etc. It's a matter of how far the rot has set it.
It's interesting that not just your mom but also all her friends have all flipped. I personally haven't heard anyone I know flip, but the handful of Mexican Trump supporters are still holding strong, bless them.