I can't find evidence, but wasn't it the case that the polls had wide margins like 2 weeks out and then started closing right before election night? Then Nate and his crew have been using the final polls to say "See! We were within margin of error!"
Yeah, I remember double-digit leads for Hillary, before they magically disappeared so the pollsters would be within the margin of error come election day.
Supposedly the polls aren't tightening this election, but I don't buy it. Sleepy Joe and his shitty campaign have been even more of a trainwreck since the final debate, and the mail-in vote isn't anywhere close for him to be up 7 points or whatever in the polling average. That's Obama 2008 victory territory.
Weren't the final result for PA, MI, and WI outside the margin of error for the final polling averages? I think I remember them having Hillary up in the high single digits, but Trump won them.
I think they're worried and they desperately cling to polls at their own detriment.
WI was 7.2! Points off average, Michigan was 3.7(because of trafalgar putting out a positive trump poll on the last day), and PA was 2.6(polls really closed in on the last week.)
The week before election week had Clinton dominating.
From RCP
WI was 7.2! Points off average, Michigan was 3.7(because of trafalgar putting out a positive trump poll on the last day), and PA was 2.6(polls really closed in on the last week.)
The week before election week had Clinton dominating.
From RCP
So, just Wisconsin. I think people like Nate Pyrex don't include Trafalagar polls. He would just need Wisconsin to be wrong again basically, if he won everything else from last time.
So, heres a video talking about a future ku attempt
And when I mean talking I mean undercover footage of conspirators discussing how to do that
with federal intelligence contractors and employees Twitter Link
In other news a large number of helicopters have been stationed at Washington DC's airport
Also here is an NGA (National Geospatial Agency) map someone made on how to attack the white house and other capitol buildings
NGA is where the army gets their maps NGA Map Tweet Archive
They're letting this old man fly around for three events just to evenly compete with Trump (who is also doing 3 today).
Hope they can compete for this short, yet long term. Trump's got 3 today, 3 tomorrow, a blitz of 5-6 Sunday, 5-6 Monday, and only God knows the effort being pushed on Election Day next Tuesday.
Weren't the final result for PA, MI, and WI outside the margin of error for the final polling averages? I think I remember them having Hillary up in the high single digits, but Trump won them.
I think they're worried and they desperately cling to polls at their own detriment.
The idiot switched from referencing state polling to the national polling. Supposedly 2016 is A-OK because all the polls crashed their numbers at the last minute to get the RCP average down within margin of error on Election Day. But they still got many of the states wrong, which means they were shit and were just manipulating the headline number to tell a narrative.
It's kind of like saying "I predict this sports team will win the game by 20 points because their defense and coaching is so good". Then they win by 40 points because the other team had their starting lineup killed in a plane crash and the survivors were terrible on the field. You technically got a call right, but you don't get to brag about your acumen in analyzing sports teams or your accuracy in guessing point spreads.
On top of that, Nate Linoleum's whine that he gave a 25% chance of winning to Donald Trump is meaningless: you don't run an election twice, n=1 exactly. But the braindead redditor doesn't realize that even if you take 538's probabilistic model seriously, that 6% chance of Trump winning means the outcome can be just as wrong as when it showed 25% last time.
"Here's the chances polls could be wrong" is not a refutation of the claim "polls were wrong last time". Fucking redditors.
Damned fucking math-failing scientific-calculator-buying-but-not-understanding high-school-sleeping mouth-breathing worthless piles of shit, wastes of space occupying desks for 16 years without learning how to think or analyze whatever the "please don't tank my teacher ratings" drone slaps on the board and tells them is on the open-book, pass-fail, watered down, graded on a curve, printed on twice recycled fucking paper that's still a waste of a tree on these motherfucking redditors. Fuck.
They deserve to be hunted down by angry math teachers and have a slide rule shoved down their stupid throats so the world is spared any more of their stupid mind farts disguised as human speech by auto-correcting brain liquefying Big Tech algorithms, who keep them fat and stupid by convincing them they're subversive and smart, and reinforce that illusion by dribbling out basic bitch statistics from a balding fraud who failed at sports betting so he's trying his scam with politics where he found the mouth-breathers who think probability is comparing one number to another to see which is bigger, who will believe anything you tell them as long as it has a % sign at the end. FUCKING reddit.
>CLINTON SUICIDE FOUNDATION LIMO SERVICE
>DEMOCRAT CEMETERY VOTE COLLECTOR
holy shit
I have literally driven down the highway that day of ruining that Harry Potter book for everybody with signs in my back window of "SNAPE KILLS DUMBLEDORE" and "SNAPE IS THE HALF BLOOD PRINCE" and even I am impressed by the balls displayed there.
The idiot switched from referencing state polling to the national polling. Supposedly 2016 is A-OK because all the polls crashed their numbers at the last minute to get the RCP average down within margin of error on Election Day. But they still got many of the states wrong, which means they were shit and were just manipulating the headline number to tell a narrative.
It's kind of like saying "I predict this sports team will win the game by 20 points because their defense and coaching is so good". Then they win by 40 points because the other team had their starting lineup killed in a plane crash and the survivors were terrible on the field. You technically got a call right, but you don't get to brag about your acumen in analyzing sports teams or your accuracy in guessing point spreads.
On top of that, Nate Linoleum's whine that he gave a 25% chance of winning to Donald Trump is meaningless: you don't run an election twice, n=1 exactly. But the braindead redditor doesn't realize that even if you take 538's probabilistic model seriously, that 6% chance of Trump winning means the outcome can be just as wrong as when it showed 25% last time.
"Here's the chances polls could be wrong" is not a refutation of the claim "polls were wrong last time". Fucking redditors.
Damned fucking math-failing scientific-calculator-buying-but-not-understanding high-school-sleeping mouth-breathing worthless piles of shit, wastes of space occupying desks for 16 years without learning how to think or analyze whatever the "please don't tank my teacher ratings" drone slaps on the board and tells them is on the open-book, pass-fail, watered down, graded on a curve, printed on twice recycled fucking paper that's still a waste of a tree on these motherfucking redditors. Fuck.
They deserve to be hunted down by angry math teachers and have a slide rule shoved down their stupid throats so the world is spared any more of their stupid mind farts disguised as human speech by auto-correcting brain liquefying Big Tech algorithms, who keep them fat and stupid by convincing them they're subversive and smart, and reinforce that illusion by dribbling out basic bitch statistics from a balding fraud who failed at sports betting so he's trying his scam with politics where he found the mouth-breathers who think probability is comparing one number to another to see which is bigger, who will believe anything you tell them as long as it has a % sign at the end. FUCKING reddit.
LOL, 538 really only gives Trump, who is an incumbent, a 6% chance of winning?! The only incumbent with a chance that low would of had to have been Jimmy Carter, but his approval rating was terrible and he was a weak president.
Even if Biden wins, if the result is anywhere close, Nate's probability model would still have been way off.
If the latest Trafalgar polls are (a) accurate, and (b) steady, then it looks like Trump can hold all of the states he won in 2016. Based on these polls, it looks like Minnesota is getting out of Trump's reach and that Florida may as well be out of Biden's reach. And it looks like the gap in Nevada is well within the margin of error, so I'd classify it as a swing/probably leans blue/possible upset state.
If Trump manages to grab all of the same states he won in 2016 outside of the swing rust belt states, then all he would need to make it past 270 is to grab Michigan or Pennsylvania.
In contrast to Trump, Biden would need ALL of the swing rust belt states to cross 270. Been playing around with an Electoral Map, and that is what I am seeing when checking out possible outcomes.
Yeah. I think this election is going to be a really close one, regardless of who wins it all. I simply do not see a landslide situation for either candidate; that's the only "prediction" I am willing to make. And the more I see it, the more I am absolutely believing that we're not going to have a winner declared for a while ... Obviously because it's 2020 and this election never wants to end.
Pennsylvania looks to be the state that all eyes will be on in the forthcoming weeks ...
Do not despair! its what they want! I've been lurking this thread for about 2 weeks and what im saying now has been said before multiple times. So what if they win? You should just give up? Do nothing? No. This issue has been bothering me aswell. I found a clip on youtube which i thought was pretty good. Its from a guy called Oswald Mosley. I think if you are somewhat worried about the
election you should give it a listen. Its a speech from quite awhile ago but i believe its relevant. Though im not sure you can even listen to it because recently the media servers or whatever on this site has been shitting itself and it takes long to load videos
.
LOL, 538 really only gives Trump, who is an incumbent, a 6% chance of winning?! The only incumbent with a chance that low would of had to have been Jimmy Carter, but his approval rating was terrible and he was a weak president.
Even if Biden wins, if the result is anywhere close, Nate's probability model would still have been way off.
That's the number the redditor used. The retarded 538 model is showing an 11% chance right now. How did Trump's odds nearly double with just a batch of new polls? IT DIDN'T, NATE'S A DUMB FUCK
I've sperged about the internals of that model already, so I won't do it again. But this is the first time I saw that fucking furry fox avatar, and I hate the whole world right now.
If the latest Trafalgar polls are (a) accurate, and (b) hold steady, then it looks like Trump can hold all of the states he won in 2016. Based on these polls, it looks like Minnesota is getting out of Trump's reach and that Florida may as well be out of Biden's reach. And it looks like the gap in Nevada is well within the margin of error, so I'd classify it as a swing/probably leans blue/possible upset state.
If Trump manages to grab all of the same states he won in 2016 outside of the swing rust belt states, then all he would need to make it past 270 is to grab Michigan or Pennsylvania.
In contrast to Trump, Biden would need ALL of the swing rust belt states to cross 270. Been playing around with an Electoral Map, and that is what I am seeing when checking out possible outcomes.
Yeah. I think this election is going to be a really close one, regardless of who wins it all. I simply do not see a landslide situation for either candidate; that's the only "prediction" I am willing to make. And the more I see it, the more I am absolutely believing that we're not going to have a winner declared for a while ... Obviously because it's 2020 and this election never wants to end.
Pennsylvania looks to be the state that all eyes will be on in the forthcoming weeks ...
I have been thinking about it but I think the only way a winner won't be declared is if multiple states are going to take awhile to count their ballots after election day or if it's not clear if either candidate passed 270 electoral votes. If it's clear one of them passed that threshold then a winner will be declared and the states counting ballots post-election day will have their results soon.
I have been thinking about it but I think the only way a winner won't be declared is if multiple states are going to take awhile to count their ballots after election day or if it's not clear if either candidate passed 270 electoral votes. If it's clear one of them passed that threshold then a winner will be declared and the states counting ballots post-election day will have their results soon.
Well if it's clear Biden lost he'd concede since Clinton had conceded too and the establishment honestly tried harder to elect her. The only people who'd ask for recounts if it was clear Biden lost would be supporters and many types. I have a feeling a Trump win is expected for them so they can prepare their 2022/2024 campaigns to bring "progress back to America"
A Biden win would be unpredictable given Trump is a businessman who likes to take risks so it is unknown what Trump would do since he is a really unpredictable candidate in comparison to Biden whose just the typical corrupt politician.
Well if it's clear Biden lost he'd concede since Clinton had conceded too and the establishment honestly tried harder to elect her. The only people who'd ask for recounts if it was clear Biden lost would be supporters and many types. I have a feeling a Trump win is expected for them so they can prepare their 2022/2024 campaigns to bring "progress back to America"
A Biden win would be unpredictable given Trump is a businessman who likes to take risks so it is unknown what Trump would do since he is a really unpredictable candidate in comparison to Biden whose just the typical corrupt politician.
Oh, I think that this is what the Democrats should do from an optics perspective to preserve their future as a political party. A Biden presidency would be a disaster ... As would a Harris presidency. The best way to get the American people to turn against the Democrat Party in big numbers is to make them endure a 1-year Biden and 3-year Harris Administration.
I just don't believe that is actually their plan at the moment, though. The whole 25th Amendment stunt was definitely for Biden and not Trump. As disastrous as she would be as POTUS, the establishment clearly wants Kamala Harris in charge, and this is their only chance to make it happen at this point.
Oh, I think that this is what the Democrats should do from an optics perspective to preserve their future as a political party. A Biden presidency would be a disaster ... As would a Harris presidency. The best way to get the American people to turn against the Democrat Party in big numbers is to make them endure a 1-year Biden and 3-year Harris Administration.
I just don't believe that is actually their plan at the moment, though. The whole 25th Amendment stunt was definitely for Biden and not Trump. As disastrous as she would be as POTUS, the establishment clearly wants Kamala Harris in charge, and this is their only chance to make it happen at this point.
I think the plan for the Democrats right now is to hope Biden wins the election so they can get Kamala in through the 25th amendment, and then see where that takes them in what they want to hopefully not have to deal with a threat in 2024. But if Trump wins in a clear race, they'd see the writing on the wall and concede while simultaneously yelling about cheating for awhile so they can work it into their future campaigns for 2022 and 2024. I know it's optimistic to assume the Democrats will concede but despite their grandstanding, at the end of the day they are spineless politicians who are all bark and no bite.
Oh, I think that this is what the Democrats should do from an optics perspective to preserve their future as a political party. A Biden presidency would be a disaster ... As would a Harris presidency. The best way to get the American people to turn against the Democrat Party in big numbers is to make them endure a 1-year Biden and 3-year Harris Administration.
I just don't believe that is actually their plan at the moment, though. The whole 25th Amendment stunt was definitely for Biden and not Trump. As disastrous as she would be as POTUS, the establishment clearly wants Kamala Harris in charge, and this is their only chance to make it happen at this point.
Now, something I've been thinking about is what if Biden has a major medical emergency and becomes either incapacitated or even dies during the week of the election but before the winner is announced?
I mean, it's not entirely out of the question, given he's almost 80 years old, has several aneurysms and is an obvious dementia case.
Now, something I've been thinking about is what if Biden has a major medical emergency and becomes either incapacitated or even dies during the week of the election but before the winner is announced?
I mean, it's not entirely out of the question, given he's almost 80 years old, has several aneurysms and is an obvious dementia case.
This whole thing is giving me the same sensation as going up on a roller coaster, or maybe more accurately playing Russian roullette. If Biden wins it feels like the whole world may be fucked, I know it probably wont be but I barely want to live as it is, I definitely don't want to live under a dementia addled kid sniffer who will sell us to the chinese. Dear God do I hope Trump wins this. I think he will but even a 1% chance that a round is chambered before the trigger is pulled makes me anxious with these stakes.
