2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[he who has thus come/gone]

Any thoughts on this final Florida predictor poll from Rasmussen?

https://politicaliq.com/2020/11/01/florida-final-poll-biden-51-trump-47/

Definitely hoping that's not going to be the case, but you never know with Sunshine Boomers...

Well, the Biden share of the GOP vote would be higher before election day, I imagine. And I imagine many Trump voting dems would also vote on election day. I'm not super worried.

 

[Doctor of Autism]

Any thoughts on this final Florida predictor poll from Rasmussen?

https://politicaliq.com/2020/11/01/florida-final-poll-biden-51-trump-47/

Definitely hoping that's not going to be the case, but you never know with Sunshine Boomers...

There is a lot of bullshit with this poll

>Trump has the highest approval rating within his own party (literally has the most votes for any republican incumbent in the primaries)
>Highest hispanic support in Florida
>Biden is literally a relic of the Obama era and republicans voting for someone from Obama's administration is highly unlikely
>Many republicans are literally known to lie to Pollsters for the fun of it or just to not be ostracized especially in regards to Trump support

Also if there were that many republicans stumping for Biden or against Trump, then Bill Weld would've received more votes in the Republican primary

 

[BONE_Buddy]

Got some interesting stuff for you all to chew on (Just as a reminder, none of this is my work):

https://statespoll.com/post/633594314204807168/presidential-election-2020-electoral-college

Presidential Election 2020 Electoral College Final Map. (2020 Forecast Map/Prediction Map). Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. November 1, 2020. Final Map

No Toss up/ No Tilt/Lean/Likely Map also

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1322916051940593666

My Twitter(No Toss up):

https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1322945347505696768

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

US Presidential Election 2020:​

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden​

November 1. 2020. Final Map​

Trump 322 / Biden 216 ​

Latest Polls/Party ID+VBM+In person Statistcs.​

Last updated: 9 AM EST. November 1. 2020 ​

FL/MI/PA/WI Poll, Oakland County MI(10/31)​

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.

About the details below(Read more)

Based on

1) Midterm Election 2018 Fox New Voter Analysis

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

2) Exit Poll 2012/2016/2018

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

3) Latest Poll(adjustment)

4) Voter registration statistics + VBM

I. Rust Belt (MI/OH/PA/WI)​

1. Michigan. ​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Michigan Senate Race 2018. 3,909 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MI&type=S

Party ID with leaners: REP 43% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2) Latest Poll​

(1) Emerson, 10/29-10/30. 700 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633593025474576384

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.3% / Biden 47.3%. Trump +4.0%

(2) Mitchell, 10/29. 817 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633606396802433024

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.9% / Biden 46.2%. Trump +5.7%


(3) Epic-MRA, 10/25-10/28. 600 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633585950498422784

Poll results: Biden 48% / Trump 41%

Adjusted %: Trump 47.16% / Biden 42.8%. Trump +4.36%


(4) RMG Research 10/27-10/29, 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633450323033374721

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.7% / Biden 46.6%. Trump +4.1%


(5) Trafalgar 10/25-10/28, 1,058 LV.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321952576884101120

Poll results: Trump 49.1% / Biden 46.6%. Trump +2.5%


(6) Siena/NYT 10/23-10/26, 856 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633256033986412544

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 41%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.7% / Biden 44.9% Trump +4.8%

3) Michigan 2020 Forecast​

(1) Party ID % 2020 forecast

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+

Early voting(VBM+In person)

With Leaners: REP 49% / DEM 42% / IND 9%

Exlcude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 33% / IND 27%



VBM+in person 55% / Election Day 45% Model.



Details About My Michigan Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/633593025474576384



TargetSmart Early Voting Model, Oakland County. Michigan.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Oct. 29) DEM 44.8% / REP 42.3%. D+2.5%.

Oct. 30) DEM 44.3% / REP 42.7%. D+1.6%.

Oct. 31) DEM 44.0% / REP 42.8%. D+1.2%

considering ED Factor. Trump is likely to flip Oakland county.



(2) Rate Michigan.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Current Early Voting: Favor Trump

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump

But I dunno each numbers of Trump’s REP/DEM/IND and Biden’s

REP/DEM/IND, And considering Oakland County Early voting numbers

Conclusion) MI: Lean Trump

2. Wisconsin​

1) Voter Registration Statistics​

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Wisconsin Governor Race 2018. 4,683 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

(1) Party ID%, Wisconsin with leaner: REP 45% / DEM 43% / IND 13%

3) Latest Poll​

(1) Emerson, 10/29-10/30. 751 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633544754279399424

Poll results: Biden 52.6% / Trump 45.4%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.7% / Biden 48.55%. Trump +2.15%



(2) NYT/Siena, 10/26-10/30. 1,253 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633579019604017152

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 41%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.7% / Biden 46.7%. Trump +4.0%



(3) Marquette, 10/21-10/25. 749 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633255022718795776

Poll results: Biden 48% / Trump 43% / Jorgensen 2%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.6% / Biden 45.4%/ Jorgensen 2.3% Trump +3.2%



(4) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 664 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633089252265230336

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.68% / Biden 47.6%. Trump +2.08%

4) Wisconsin 2020 Forecast​

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

Exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

with leaners: REP 50% / DEM 40% / IND 10%

VBM+in person 50% / Election Day 50% Model.

Details About My Wisconsin Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/633579019604017152



(2) Rate Wisconsin

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail+in person: Favor Trump

according to Wisconsin TargetSmart Early Voting Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

WOW Counties +Racine+Sheboygan+Brown+Winnebago+Outagamie:

Ultra Trending R. 1st time/Infrequent Voters also.

Wisconsin Ealry Voting Analysis October 25. 2020

https://statespoll.com/post/633006764145737728

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump

Conclusion) WI: Lean Trump

3. Pennsylvania​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2018. 3,925 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=PA&type=S

(1) Party ID%, Pennsylvania with leaner, PA Sen 2018

with leaner REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

2) Pennsylvania Party ID % Statistics​

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/currentvotestats.xlsx

(1) October 5, 2020: Total 8,897,739

Dem: 4,168,900 (46.85%) / Rep: 3,451,514 (38.79%). D +8.06%

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 8,609,880

Dem: 4,111,325 (47.75%) / Rep: 3,270,882 (37.99%). D +9.76%

(3) November 8, 2016: Total 8,722,977

Dem: 4,217,456 (48.35%) / Rep: 3,301,182 (37.84%). D +10.51%

3) Latest Poll​

(1) AtlasIntel, 10/29-10/30. 672 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/633548037061525504

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 49%

Adjusted %: Trump 52.7% / Biden 46.3. Trump +6.4%


(2) NYT/Siena, 10/26-10/31. 1,862 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633578683395883008

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.5% / Biden 44.8%. Trump +4.7%


(3) ABC/Washington Post, 10/24-10/29. 810 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633556008086683648

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.6% / Biden 47.34%. Trump +2.26%


(4) RMG Research, 10/25-10/27. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633266122429530113

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.93% / Biden 47.08%. Trump +2.85%


(5) InsiderAdvantage, 10/25. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633091095658627072

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 45.5%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.04% / Biden 44.25%. Trump +4.79%

4) Pennsylvania 2020 Forecast​

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment

+ VBM+In person 41% / Election Day 59% Model

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 41% / IND 9%

exclude Leaner: REP 45% / DEM 39% / IND 16%

Details about my PA model

read my Post: https://statespoll.com/post/633199656675016704


(2) Rate Pennsylvania.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail: https://statespoll.com/post/633199656675016704

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump.

Conclusion) PA: Lean Trump

4. Ohio​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Ohio Governor Race 2018. 3,819 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 41% / IND 12%

2) Latest Poll​

(1) Gravis, 10/27-10/28, 613 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633315920119463937

Poll results: Trump 49% / Biden 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 52.3% / Biden 43.5%. Trump +8.8%

3) Ohio 2020 Forecast​

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in Ohio

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

in 2020 it might be something like

exclude leaners: REP 39% / DEM 31% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

TargetSmart Model 10/26. 2,201,511+ Casted ballot(40.1% of 2016 Total)

REP 45.9% DEM 41.7% Other 12.5%. and REP might take leads ED



(2) Rate Ohio

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll %: Solid Trump

Early Voting: heavily favor REP. TargetSmart Model 10/28/2020

REP 46.1% / DEM 41.2% / IND 12.6% + ED Factor

Conclusion: Solid Trump

II. Other Swing States (AZ/FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/TX)​

5. Arizona​

1) Arizona Party ID % Statistics​

Active voters only

(1) August 4, 2020: Total 3,989,214

Rep: 1,389,960(34.84%) Dem 1,293,074(32.41%). R +2.43%

https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Reigstration_2020_Primary.pdf

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 1,287,831 (34.69%) Dem 1,150,436(30.99%). R +3.7%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2018-10-01.pdf

(3) October 28, 2016: Total 3,588,466

Rep: 1,239,614(34.54%) Dem 1,091,323(30.41%). R +4.13%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2016-11-08.pdf

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%

DEM 41% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%

IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Trump approval: Approve 49% / Disapprove 51%

3) Latest Poll​

(1) NYT/Siena 10/26-10/30. 1,252 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633577379003023360

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.95% / Biden 46.07%. Trump +3.88%


(2) Gravis 10/26-10/28. 704 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/633259412896841728

Poll results: Biden 48% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 47% / Biden 45.5%. Trump +1.5%


(3) Ipsos 10/21-10/27. 714 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633269028364959744/

Poll results: Trump 47% / Biden 47% / Joregensen 2% / Kanya 1%

Adjusted: Trump 50.5% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +6.4%


(4) OH Predictive Insights, 10/22-10/25. 716 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633259412896841728

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.85% / Biden 47.2%. Trump +2.65%

4) Arizona 2020 Forecast​

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

(1) Party ID%

2018 AZGov Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners):

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona

REP 38% / DEM 31% / IND 31%

My Model

With Leaners: REP 51% / DEM 41% / IND 8%

Exclude Leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

About the details read my analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/633562072235606016


(2) Rate Arizona

Party ID %:

Vote-By-Mail:

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Conclusion: Lean Trump

6. Florida​

1) Florida Party ID % Statistics​

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

(1) August 31, 2020: Total 14,065,627

Dem: 5,203,795 (37.0%) / Rep: 5,020,199 (35.69%). D +1.31%

(2) End of 2018: Total 13,396,622

Dem: 4,975,895 (37.14%) / Rep: 4,718,720 (35.22%). D +1.92%

(3) End of 2016: Total 12,959,185

Dem: 4,905,705 (37.86%) / Rep: 4,575,277 (35.31%). D +2.55%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Florida Senate Race 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=FL&type=S

Party ID with leaner: REP 46% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

3) Latest Poll​

(1) NYT/Siena, 10/27-10/31. 1,451 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633578288385802240

Poll results: Biden 47% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.36% / Biden 44.32%. Trump +7.04%

(2) St. Pete Polls, 10/29-10/30. 2,758 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633585031613382656

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.6% / Biden 46.8%. Trump +3.8%


(3) RMG Research, 10/28-10/30. 1,200 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633584756307722240

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.1% / Biden 46.8%. Trump +4.3%


(4) Yougov, 10/16-10/26. 1,200 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633419405076856832

Poll results: Biden 48% / Trump 46%

Notbale Results, Among Hispanic: Biden 51% / Trump 44%.

Adjusted %: Trump 52.36% / Biden 44.4%. Trump 7.96%


(5) Monmouth, 10/24-10/28. 509 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633364544414187520

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 45%

Adjusted: Trump 51.5% / Biden 46.1%. Trump +5.4%


(6) Ipsos, 10/21-10/27. 704 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633267801437716480/

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 50.96% / Biden 45.07%. Trump +5.89%

4) Florida 2020 Forecast​

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

+Early Voting(VBM+in person)

2018 FL GOV Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners): REP 38% / DEM 33% /IND 29%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Details of My FL Party ID model,

Read My Analysis post: https://statespoll.com/post/632594327193993216


(2) Rate Florida.

Party ID % TrendsNov 2016: D +2.5% -> Sept 2020: D +1.3%)

Early Voting:

TargetSmart Model 11/1/2020

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

REP 46.7% / DEM 46.4% / Other 7.0%.

considering REP might take leads on election day. Favor REP


Poll % (adjusted %): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

7. Nevada​

1) Nevada Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)​

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

(1) Oct 1, 2020: Total 1,742,477

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8998

Dem 654,724 (37.57%) Rep 566,265(32.5%) D+5.07%


(2) Jan 3, 2019: Total 1.582 Million

Dem 607.4k(38.39%) Rep 528.7k(33.42%) D+4.97%


(3) Oct 21, 2016: Total 1,464,819

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Dem 577,679(39.44%) Rep 488,861(33.37%) D+6.07%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Nevada Senate Race 2018. 3,400 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NV&type=S

Party ID with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%s

3) Latest Poll​

(1) Gravis 10/27-10/28, 688 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633366208565149696

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 44%

Adjusted

EV 80%/ED 20%: Trump 50.35% / Biden 47.02% Trump +3.33%


(2) NYT/Siena 10/23-10/26, 809 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633152355607707648

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 43% / Jorgensen 3%

Adjusted %:

Early Voting 80%/Election Day 20% Model:

Trump 49.1% / Biden 47.2% /Jorgensen 1.6%. Trump +1.9%

4) Nevada 2020 Forecast​

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 33% / IND 27%
with leaners: REP 49.5% / DEM 42% / IND 8.5%


(2) Rate Nevada

1) Party ID %:

2) Poll %: Tilt Trump

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

TargetSmart Early Voting Model Nevada 10.29

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

D 46.1% / R 45.4%

My Analysis Post(Nevada Early Voting):

https://statespoll.com/post/633296492236554240

Conclusion: Tilt Trump


* Tumblr doesn’t allow to click link when my post is too long. so about

MN/NC/GA/IA/TX/NH/ME/CO -> read this post:​

https://statespoll.com/post/633268258372550656

 

[BONE_Buddy]

{BONE_Note: Sorry for the double post, the fucker's election information is long as shit and on multiple pages. I am going to spoiler the rest of the article because it is also long and even worse formatted:

Spoiler: LONG

Electoral Map Final 11/1. MN/NC/IA/TX/NH/ME/VA/CO​

8. Minnesota​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Minnesota Special Senate Race 2018. 4,201 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MN&type=S2

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner, MN Special Sen 2018

with leaners: DEM 46% / REP 40% / IND 14%

2) Latest Poll​

(1 PPP(Dem-Pollster), 10/29-10/30. 770 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633506602209738752

Poll results : Biden 54% / Trump 43% (D +13% Samples.

PPP’s model: DEM 44% / REP 31% / IND 24% )

Adjusted %: Trump 49.58% / Biden 46.44%. Trump +3.14%



(2) SurveyUSA, 10/23-10/27. 649 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633569481515466752

Poll results : Biden 47% / Trump 42%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.2% / Biden 46.32%. Trump +1.88%

3) Minnesota 2020 Forecast​

(1) Party ID %

With Leaner: REP 48% / DEM 40% / IND 12%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 35% / IND 27%

Detials: https://statespoll.com/post/633569481515466752



(2) Rate Minnesota

3) Early voting, TargetSmart Model:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

=> Oct 24: DEM 47.4% / REP 29.9% / IND + Other 22.7%

=> Oct 28: DEM 46.9% / REP 30.4% / IND + Other 22.7%

=> Oct 31: DEM 45.8% / REP 31.5% / IND + Other 22.7%

Poll %: Tilt~Lean Trump

Conclusion: Tilt Trump

​

9. North Carolina​

1) Party Statistics Trends %​

2016 Results: TRUMP 49.83% / Hillary 46.17%

Party registration statistics Trends.

2016->2020 Dem’s margins reduced -3.82%

(1) October 10, 2020: Total 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Dem 2,585,688 (35.70%) / Rep 2,185,854 (30.18%). D +5.52%

(2) November, 8th 2016: Total 6,918,150

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F08%2F2016

Dem 2,733,188(39.51%) / Rep 2,086,942(30.17%). D +9.34%

2) Latest Poll​

(1) Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS), 10/27-10/28. 750 LV.

https://nsjonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/NSJ-CPA-2020-10-29-POLL_Results.pdf

Poll results :Trump 48.05% / Biden 45.9%. Trump +2.15%

FYI: This poll’s samples. D 36.07% R 30.69% IND+Other 32.25%

My Model(exclude Leaners): REP 36% / DEM 30% / IND 34%



(2) Siena/NYT, 10/23-10/27. 1,034 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633333668087300097

Poll results : Biden 48% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.9% / Biden 46.3%. Trump +4.6%



(3) Ipsos, 10/21-10/27. 647 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633176589443710976

Poll results : Biden 49% / Trump 48%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.1% / Biden 47.4%. Trump +2.7%



(4) SurveyUSA, 10/23-10/26. 627 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633177000028372992

Poll results : Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.85% / Biden 45.4%. Trump +6.45%

3) North Carolina Forecast​

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends

My Model(With leaners): REP 50% / DEM 42.5% / IND 7.5%

exclude leaners: REP 36% / DEM 30% / IND 34%

Details of My NC Party ID Model.(with leaners)

Read my post: https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

(2) Rate NC

Poll %: Lean Trump

Party ID % Trends: Favor REP(Nov 2016: D +9.3% -> Oct 2020: D +5.5%)

Current Early voting REP is narrowing gap radically

VBM: favor REP.

TargetSmart Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

10/28/2020 DEM 48.5 / REP 45.2% (FYI, 2016: DEM 53.0% REP 42.7%)

10/29/2020 DEM 48.0 / REP 45.6%

Conclusion: Lean Trump

​

10. Georgia​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Georgia Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% DEM 41% IND 11%

2) Latest Poll​

(1) Monmouth, 10/23-10/27, 504 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633256810660429824



Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 46%

Adjusted: Trump 50.85% / Biden 43.4%. Trump +6.45%

(2) Yougov 10/20-10/23, 1,090 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961884585426944



Poll results: Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted: Trump 53.7% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +9.6%

(3) Landmark 10/21, 500 LV.



Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Notable results: 72% GA White voters are favoring Trump.

3) Georgia 2020 Forecast​

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID %

Based on foxnews voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%



(2) Rate Georgia

Party ID %: Likely REP

Early Voting: Huge Favor GOP

TargetSmart Model 10/28/2020

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

REP 1,446,457 (49.3%) / DEM 1,284,919 (43.8%)



FYI) Georgia: Emerson 10/17-10/19, 506 LV.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/georgia-2020-showdown-in-presidential-and-us-senate-races

https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/KkV8nWZRPiVGYm7pZWtH

Among Georgia Election Day voters (193 LV)

Trump: 136 + 3(undecied leaner) = 139 /193 = 72.02%

Biden: 45+ 2(undecied leaner) =47 /193 = 24.3%



Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump



Conclusion: Likely Trump

11. Iowa​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Iowa Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2016 Exit Poll 34% vote share, 2018: 23% share. 11% lower than 2016)

Final results: Kim Reynolds(Rep) 50.3% / Fred Hubbell(Dem) 47.5%

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Hubbell 11% Reynolds 87%

DEM 36% Hubbell 94% Reynolds 5%

IND 17%

1) Iowa Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)​

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

(1) September 1, 2020: Total 2,027,777

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoSept20.pdf

Dem 684,093 (33.73%) Rep 691,239 (34.09%) R +0.36%

(2) November 1, 2016: Total 1,996,153

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf

Dem 629,081 (31.51%) Rep 662,167(33.17%) R +1.66%

2) Latest Poll​

(1) Selzer, 10/26-10/29, 814 LV.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 41%

IASen: Ernst 46% / Greenfield 42%

Adjusted: Trump 50.85% / Biden 43.4%. Trump +6.45%



(2) Emerson, 10/19-10/21. 435 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632849562979188736

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 48% (Push undecided)

Adjusted: Trump 51.6% / Biden 44.2%. Trump +7.4%



(3) InsiderAdvantage, 10/18-10/19. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632551635927941120

Poll Results: Biden 45.1% / Trump 44.6%

Adjusted: Trump 52.7% / Biden 42.7%. Trump +10%

3) Iowa 2020 Forecast​

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 30% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 36% / IND 11%

(2) Rate Iowa

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.15 / Hillary(DEM) 41.74% R +9.41%

12. Texas ​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

Texas Senate Race 2018. 3,747 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / dem 41% / IND 10%. Final Results: Cruz 50.9% / Beto 48.3%



Current Early Voting numbers.

TargetSmart Model :

10/21/2020 REP 50.3% / DEM 40.9% / IND 8.8%

10/25/2020 REP 51.9% / DEM 38.9% / IND 9.2%

Considering ED might be : REP 52%+ / DEM 39% or less / IND 9%

(2018: R +8% -> 2020: Might be R +13% or more. )

2) Latest Poll​

(1) RMG Research, 10/27-10/28. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633363164220768257

Poll Results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Adjusted: Trump 52.9% / Biden 42.4%. Trump +10.5%



(2) University of Massachusetts Lowell, 10/20-10/26. 873 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633331822619754496

Poll Results Trump 48% / Biden 47%

Adjusted: Trump 53.07% / Biden 43.81%. Trump +9.26%

III. NH/ME(Semi Blue States ME2/NE2: Swing district)​

13. Maine​

Maine Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=ME&type=G

Party ID%(With Leaners): DEM 41% / REP 41% / IND 18%

ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

1) ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)​

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

(1) 7/14/2020: Total 1,063,383

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active.pdf

DEM 386,786(36.4%) / REP 295,122(27.8%). D +8.6%

(2) 11/6/2018: Total 1,054,952

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active1118.pdf

DEM 348,657(33.05%) / REP 287,955(27.3%). D +5.75%



(3) 11/8/2016: Total 1,058,444

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/r-e-active-11-8-16.pdf

DEM 338,352(32.0%) / REP 285,320(27.0%). D +5.0%



Maine Sen/President: Collins vs Gideon. Trump vs Biden

SurveyUSA, 10/23-10/27. 1,007 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633311219468713984

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 40%

ME-2, Final Vote: Biden 51.4% / Trump 48.6%



Adjusted %: Biden 51.6% / Trump 43.7%. Biden +7.9%

ME-2): Trump 48.6%+3.7%=52.3% might wiin ME-2

2) Maine 2020 Forecast​

ME-2: Lean Trump

My Post(ME-2): https://statespoll.com/post/632560185693618176

ME-1: Solid Biden. ME(Statewide): Nearly Solid Biden.

14. New Hampshire​

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis​

New Hampshire Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NH&type=G

Party ID with leaners: Dem 42% / Rep 42% / IND 15%

2) NH Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)​

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx <- Broken link. NH Gov doesn’t offer this info anymore. I don’t know why.

(1) April 1, 2020: Total 1,002,904

Dem 323,430(32.25%) / Rep 301,720(30.08%) D +2.17%

(2) December 17, 2018: Total 1,009,004

Rep 307,360 (30.46%) / Dem 284,174(28.16%) R +2.3%

(3) November 8, 2016: Total 1,007,402

Rep 308,808(30.65%) / Dem 288,808(28.67%) R +1.98%

3) Latest Poll​

(1) University of Massachusetts Lowell 10/16-10/26. 757 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/633331248362881025

Poll Results: Biden 53% / Trump 43% / Joregensen2%

Adjusted: Biden 53.0% / Trump 43.5%. Biden +9.5%

4) NH 2020 Forecast​

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners:

with leaners: DEM 44.5% / REP 42% / IND 13.5%

(2) Rate New Hampshire

Party ID %: Lean DDem

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green):

Conclusion: Likely

15. NE-2 District​

Current Early Voting TargetSmart Model:

10/28 DEM 47.8% / REP 46.1% / IND 6.0%

*FYI 2016 EV(58,667 Votes): DEM 51.6% / REP 42.6% / IND 5.8%

I guess in the end, with Election Day: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Conclusion: Tilt~Lean Trump

16. Virginia​

I thought VA is a Solid Dem state. but Early Voting situation changed my mind.

My VA Early Voting analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/633572134214631425



(1) Data For Progress 10/27-11/1, 690 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633363164220768257



Poll results: Biden 54% / Trump 43%.

Adjusted %: Biden 50.3% / Trump 47.2%. Biden +3.1%
Conclusion: Lean BIden

17. Colorado​

I thought CO is a Solid Dem state. but Early Voting situation changed my mind.

About Colorado, Dut to TargetSmart CO early voting model. 10/31

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

DEM 47.8% / REP 42.6% / Other 9.5%. I guess Biden might CO, But

Trump’s chance of winning in CO, 5~10%.

 

[Pickle Dick]

Next week would've been four whole years since the last presidential election

In light of this, I've decided to share this 2016 election night highlight video taken from NBC News:

NBC News's coverage of the election seems to be neutralish (although it could be because of how everything was cut to fit 30 minutes), although you can tell the tone of the news people's voice become gradually grimmer over the course of the night. I just enjoy viewing this particular highlight video for one reason or another.

 

[mai minakami]

or it's the destructive culture that causes the social inferiority for lack of better options? its a feedback loop and a self fufilling one.

if the cultural values don't change it will never end.

It's the destructive culture.

Promiscuity, colorism, racism, sociopathy and sexism(misandry and misogyny in extreme cases) are all promoted and supported in the black "community."
The people they worship are not healthy, functioning members in society. Generally if you ask a black person about what music the listen to, it will be full of violence and sex. That's not to say every black person is a sociopath but they promote it and uplift and support other blacks who showcase sociopathic behaviors.
Of course, you get those who go against the current, but are ridiculed and called slurs or called "white." When you put self worth and identity in your skin color it creates an unstable sense of self. When you have volatile family members who are on edge constantly, thinking that every white person is out to get them you will either agree and become volatile yourself or become averted to social interaction.

At best, the only people malleable enough to have a significant cultural shift are children.
They are still growing up in this society and many of them if not all have anger issues, are hypersensitive and/or will grow up apathetic and the cycle will continue.

But of course, those who hate blacks the most are other blacks. Any person who goes against the current is chastised and seen as a traitor.

Compare 50s blacks to blacks today. It's not that hard to figure out what went wrong.

 

[CrippleThreat]

That was a fun late-night rally!

Next week would've been four whole years since the last presidential election

In light of this, I've decided to share this 2016 election night highlight video taken from NBC News:

NBC News's coverage of the election seems to be neutralish (although it could be because of how everything was cut to fit 30 minutes), although you can tell the tone of the news people's voice become gradually grimmer over the course of the night. I just enjoy viewing this particular highlight video for one reason or another.

Nice video, but this one is always a classic:

 

[RumblyTumbly]

That was a fun late-night rally!


Nice video, but this one is always a classic:

I did not vote for Trump in 2016 (I wrote in a candidate) but I remember seeing that video back then and it filled me with glee.

Bunch of smug punks threw the banana peel in front of themselves and they deserved what they got.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Pretty much. It's also super illegal and I'm sure most places won't hesitate to call the cops over it.

Won't matter. They don't have to disrupt it much.

1. Everyone's in line after the polling places close. They are allowed to vote as long as they stay in line.
2. Antifa shows up and throws fireworks, starts rushing up at people and screaming, picking fights, and inciting a riot.
3. Everyone gets out of the fucking way of the retards. Some don't, and are assaulted, or fight back.
4. Police show up and clear Antifa after a 3-4 hour fight. This includes clearing out the line of voters.
5. People try to get back in line.
6. You left the line so you can't vote. (Insert smug progshit grins from Antifa plainsclothes and NLG members in the area here.)
7. Lawfare takes place and goes on for days or weeks.
8. "We can't know who was in line and who wasn't so we can't let people back in to vote."
9. Biden wins by 0.01% after Mail in Votes just happen to get found.

 

[babadook]

You guys weren't kidding about her looks holy shit

 

[X Prime]

Any thoughts on this final Florida predictor poll from Scott Rasmussen?

https://politicaliq.com/2020/11/01/florida-final-poll-biden-51-trump-47/

Definitely hoping that's not going to be the case, but you never know with Sunshine Boomers...

I am pressing a gigantic X to doubt. If this were even remotely probable Democrats would not be freaking out.

Again, Trump led Independents in 2016 by 4 points if I recall. A 25 point lead for Biden in that same category, in 2020, would be an almost 30-point swing. That's ridiculous.

 

[Gehenna]

Won't matter. They don't have to disrupt it much.

1. Everyone's in line after the polling places close. They are allowed to vote as long as they stay in line.
2. Antifa shows up and throws fireworks, starts rushing up at people and screaming, picking fights, and inciting a riot.
3. Everyone gets out of the fucking way of the retards. Some don't, and are assaulted, or fight back.
4. Police show up and clear Antifa after a 3-4 hour fight. This includes clearing out the line of voters.
5. People try to get back in line.
6. You left the line so you can't vote. (Insert smug progshit grins from Antifa plainsclothes and NLG members in the area here.)
7. Lawfare takes place and goes on for days or weeks.
8. "We can't know who was in line and who wasn't so we can't let people back in to vote."
9. Biden wins by 0.01% after Mail in Votes just happen to get found.

Your 8 is wrong, they legally HAVE to allow them back in line. Hypothetically, you could vote, go right back in line, and vote again. This would be a felony, but until an officer of the law decides to charge you, you cannot be refused your franchise.

 

[GuntPunt]

It's the destructive culture.

Promiscuity, colorism, racism, sociopathy and sexism(misandry and misogyny in extreme cases) are all promoted and supported in the black "community."
The people they worship are not healthy, functioning members in society. Generally if you ask a black person about what music the listen to, it will be full of violence and sex. That's not to say every black person is a sociopath but they promote it and uplift and support other blacks who showcase sociopathic behaviors.
Of course, you get those who go against the current, but are ridiculed and called slurs or called "white." When you put self worth and identity in your skin color it creates an unstable sense of self. When you have volatile family members who are on edge constantly, thinking that every white person is out to get them you will either agree and become volatile yourself or become averted to social interaction.

At best, the only people malleable enough to have a significant cultural shift are children.
They are still growing up in this society and many of them if not all have anger issues, are hypersensitive and/or will grow up apathetic and the cycle will continue.

But of course, those who hate blacks the most are other blacks. Any person who goes against the current is chastised and seen as a traitor.

Compare 50s blacks to blacks today. It's not that hard to figure out what went wrong.

Can you make the post longer?

Or use spoilers?

 

[Doctor of Autism]

There is one thing I must say given how close we are to the election which is that I am honestly jealous yet scared of the confidence Trump supporters have because if he wins then they are really right to be confident but if he loses I worry what will happen to that confidence. This is especially true with shenanigans and how the polls are somehow even more off than 2016 which makes things more off-putting on what is true or fake.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Gotta admit I've enjoyed Right Side Broadcasting's coverage, they're entertaining, not entirely stupid, and the adverts they chuck in are a joy to watch in and of themselves.

 

[Desu Mountain]

View attachment 1701162
You guys weren't kidding about her looks holy shit

I want my future waifu to look at me like that black chick looks at that soulless ginger.

 

[Someone Awful]

There is one thing I must say given how close we are to the election which is that I am honestly jealous yet scared of the confidence Trump supporters have because if he wins then they are really right to be confident but if he loses I worry what will happen to that confidence. This is especially true with shenanigans and how the polls are somehow even more off than 2016 which makes things more off-putting on what is true or fake.

The way I see it, Trump supporters are optimistic, especially after the past couple of weeks, but they aren't necessarily arrogant like Clinton supporters (and the MSM) were for her in 2016 where she was pushed as the "inevitable" candidate. Biden supporters and the MSM, of course, are doing the same thing in 2020, only with even more rigged polling. I don't see a lot of Trump supporters expecting a genuine landslide (which I define at 350 or more electoral votes). The most optimistic supporters think he'll keep all the states he won in 2016 and add Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and maybe Maine. A comfortable win, but still less than Obama's 2012 victory.

I'm still 50/50 either way, but I would be lying if I said I hadn't been feeling more hopeful. Still think it's going to come down to a narrow outcome when all is said and done.

 

[Doctor of Autism]

The way I see it, Trump supporters are optimistic, especially after the past couple of weeks, but they aren't necessarily arrogant like Clinton supporters (and the MSM) were for her in 2016 where she was pushed as the "inevitable" candidate. Biden supporters and the MSM, of course, are doing the same thing in 2020, only with even more rigged polling. I don't see a lot of Trump supporters expecting a genuine landslide (which I define at 350 or more electoral votes). The most optimistic supporters think he'll keep all the states he won in 2016 and add Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and maybe Maine. A comfortable win, but still less than Obama's 2012 victory.

I'm still 50/50 either way, but I would be lying if I said I hadn't been feeling more hopeful. Still think it's going to come down to a narrow outcome when all is said and done.

Yeah it probably will come down to how many electoral votes each candidate can snag on states called on election night compared to the states that are counting afterwards

 

[JosephStalin]

He’s going to win. If there’s one thing about trump supporters is that they’re persistent. They’ll walk through mind fields to stop Biden from being elected. I can just feel it in the air right now.

Fucking A.

Been following elections since 1968 and have never seen the types of turnouts for a Republican Presidential candidate that I have seen for Trump - in the most unlikely places.

People liked Reagan but you never saw 95-mile-long caravans for him. You never saw boat caravans in SF Bay. Never saw people turning out in force in Beverly Hills. Never saw people in NY block a bridge with their caravans.

Trump seems to fill every venue almost effortlessly, as he has throughout his entire term.

One thing should be considered - Donald Trump says what a LOT of Americans think. A LOT of Americans are beyond tired of the rioting, BLM/Antifa, and this entire fuckup called the ChiCom Flu. A LOT of Americans are beyond tired of all these "progressive" fucks and their bullshit. A LOT of Americans believe Trump is right telling China to fuck off. For many Americans, Trump is the ONLY one they trust in government, period. They know he may make mistakes, but always puts Americans and America first. Nobody can say that about Biden. Nobody could say that about Obama or Hillary.

Biden...please. He can barely fill an outhouse. He cannot keep a coherent thought in his head for more than a few moments. He has used his office to help his drug addict, criminal son scarf money from foreigners.

I don't believe ANY poll but the Amazon Poll. The media are the enemy. They work overtime to lie and fit the narrative to their needs. There's a reason TV viewership is declining, why newspapers are going out of business, why magazines are losing circulation and going out of business. For too long the media has believed they can fool all of the people, all of the time. No more. The Internet is the antidote to the media. The media cannot control all the sites out there. People see this.

I believe Trump's margin of victory will be bigger than some think. Can't say there will be a landslide but Joe and Da Hoe are going to lose.

Make sure and vote for Trump. Let's get it done. Do it for yourself. Do it for your family. Do it for America. I voted.


Added: Why not...

 

[Spasticus Autisticus]

Wait a second. From the PredictIt full rules for the Presidential Election:

View attachment 1700523

Is this the fix? Has PredictIt been suppressing the metrics this time to keep from skewing the public polling?

PredictIt has some limits in place, in order to not get classified as online gambling. One of those is that every contract has a limit to the number of traders. I think it’s 5000. Nothing nefarious going on here.