Couple of interesting articles to share,
October Surprise: This Race Is Over
By
Jerry Cave and Bill Thomas
We now know -- thanks to October -- who will win on November 3. The reason we know is found in early voting data.
October voting is no longer the exclusive domain of the Democratic Party. Both parties vote early and in ever-increasing numbers. Which makes the October vote an early “action report” on the election outcome that’s more reality based than the polls or the mainstream media.
Who you vote for is a secret. When, where, and how many voters cast their ballots is
not. It’s data. In this case, data in its most meaningful form: the number of early votes by registered Democrats and the number of early votes by registered Republicans.
Convincing the other party’s voters to vote for your candidate is a long shot
. Getting your voters to turn out for your candidate is how elections are won. It’s called GOTV, for Get Out The Vote.
GOTV plus voter enthusiasm invariably equals winning results at the polls.
In the final weeks of the campaign, enthusiasm for Donald Trump, demonstrated at multiple daily rallies, has been far beyond what it was four years ago. Will enthusiasm help produce another winning voter turnout for Trump?
Spoiler alert: Data generated by early voting says “yes.”
To understand why history will likely repeat itself, it’s important to look at voter turnout in party strongholds, districts where support is expected to be high. The highest Democratic voting percentages are often in districts with large majorities of African-American voters. The black vote is a key component in the strategy of every Democratic election campaign, especially Joe Biden’s. Accordingly, black turnout provides the best way to measure enthusiasm for the Democratic Party’s candidate and ultimately to project a winner.
Take North Carolina. In 2012, black voter turnout for Barack Obama was understandably high. Black voters made up 27 percent of North Carolina’s total number of voters that year. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s turnout among blacks in the Tar Heel state dropped to 22 percent. This year, with Biden running, North Carolina’s black turnout for early voting is 19.5 percent.
Then there’s this: the black vote that
is coming out is not all coming out for the Democrat.
A
poll by the University of New Orleans of likely Louisiana voters reported that 28 percent of blacks preferred Donald Trump. That’s driven largely by black men, among whom Trump's 43 percent edges Biden's 42 percent.
A
Rasmussen national survey, reflecting the same trend, shows Trump's approval among likely black voters at 46 percent. Approval does not translate directly into votes, but there is too much action -- in the form of early turnout -- behind that number to dismiss it.
In 2016, Trump asked African-Americans what they had to lose by backing him instead of his Hillary Clinton. Apparently, now they know. Under Trump, blacks saw record employment, the creation of economic opportunity zones, increased funding for black colleges, and the lowest incarceration rate for blacks since 1995.
If the most reliable Democratic voting bloc loses its enthusiasm for Biden, his chances in the South and elsewhere disappear.
Florida shows how that looks. Sunshine State Republicans outperformed expectations in early voting. Democrats are ahead in mail-in ballots, but not by the numbers needed to beat the GOP on Election Day when Republicans traditionally come out to vote in droves.
Rasmussen’s Daily tracking poll found that by the end of October over 31 percent of black Florida voters said they would vote for Trump.
Trump broke through the Democrat’s Blue Wall defense in 2016, and now he looks like a serious threat to their Black Wall in 2020. Trump is still going to lose the black vote. He’s just going to lose it by less.
The question, again, is how many early-voting Democrats actually voted Democratic. Trump won with backing from Democrats in 2016. Why would they abandon him now?
Donald Trump has "overwhelming support among Republicans,"
says Pew Reports. Biden's support from fellow Democrats stems largely from their dislike of Trump more than an affinity for Joe. And Biden can't attract a crowd much larger than his Secret Service detail. That’s certainly not true of Trump.
In fact, there’s no better source of actionable data than a Trump rally, because everyone who wants to attend has to provide contact information to get a free ticket. The campaign then uses this data to turn every event into a force-multiplier. First, each rally reaches millions of voters live at the venue, on cable TV, and on YouTube. Then millions more engage on Facebook and Twitter.
After the rally, a campaign team targets those who attended with digital ads that recipients can retarget to their contacts as look-alike campaigns on social media.
The party also mines the same data for useful insights and information it can convert into turnout.
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel noted that 45 percent of the attendees at an October New Hampshire rally were
not registered Republicans and 20 percent did not vote in 2016.
Who would wait in line for hours to see a Trump rally in October and then
not vote for Trump in November? It’s easy to predict there will be many new Trump voters this year in more states than just New Hampshire.
In modern times very few vice-presidents or serial losers in primaries succeed in winning the White House. Joe Biden has both of those things going against him. And that’s before factoring in China/Burismagate allegations directed at him and his family, Barack Obama’s low-impact performance on the campaign trail and the anti-police riots in Philadelphia, all of which will help Trump.
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?
One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts
Trump will take Florida,
Michigan, and
Arizona.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer could be more disappointed than Joe Biden on election night. Trafalgar has African-American GOP Senate candidate John James slightly ahead in Michigan. Trump may drag Sen. Martha McSally over the finish line in Arizona, and Alabama will return its Senate seat to the GOP.
It’s also hard to see how a cresting wave of Trump enthusiasm won’t create a GOTV result that keeps Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in his job.
The bottom line is simple math. When you add the electoral votes from reliably red states to any breach in the Blue Wall, Trump wins again, possibly even bigger than he did last time.
We now know -- thanks to October -- who will win on November 3. The reason we know is found in early voting data. October voting is no longer the exclusive domain of the Democratic Party. Both parties vote early and in ever-increasing numbers. Whi...
www.americanthinker.com
Donald Trump, Counterrevolutionary
Against all the money and clout of America’s revolutionary forces, the counterrevolutionary Trump had only one asset, the proverbial people.
By Victor Davis Hanson November 1, 2020
Until Donald Trump’s arrival, the globalist revolution was almost solidified and institutionalized—with the United States increasingly its greatest and most “woke” advocate. We know its bipartisan establishment contours.
China would inherit the world in 20 or 30 years. The self-appointed task of American elites—many of whom had already been enriched and compromised by Chinese partners and joint ventures—was to facilitate this all-in-the-family transition in the manner of the imperial British hand-off of hegemony to the United States in the late 1940s.
Our best and brightest like the Biden family, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg would enlighten us about the “real” China, so we yokels would not fall into Neanderthal bitterness as they managed our foreordained decline.
We would usher China into “the world community”—grimacing at, but overlooking the destruction it wrought on the global commercial order and the American interior.
We would politely forget about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and the Uyghurs. Hollywood would nod as it put out more lucrative comic-book and cartoonish films for the Chinese markets, albeit with mandated
lighter-skinned actors.
The NBA would nod twice and trash a democratic United States, while
praising genocidal China—becoming richer and more esteemed abroad to make up for becoming boring and poorer at home. The universities would nod three times, and see a crime not in
Chinese espionage and security breaches, but in the reporting of them as crimes.
So our revolutionary role would be to play stuffy and snooty Athenian philosophers to the new muscular Roman legions of China.
Given our elites’ superior morality, genius, and sense of self, we would gently chide and cajole our Chinese masters into becoming enlightened world overseers and democrats—all the easier, the richer and more affluent Chinese became.
For now, Trump has stopped that revolution.
Internal Counterrevolutions
Until Trump’s arrival, Big Tech was three-quarters home on the road to
Nineteen Eighty-Four. Five or six companies monopolized most American—and indeed the world’s—access and use of the internet. In cynical fashion, Silicon Valley grandees patronized naïve conservatives that they were the supposed embodiment of Milton Friedman libertarianism and 19th century robber baron daring. Yet to their leftist kindred, the moguls of Menlo Park simultaneously whispered, “Don’t worry about such necessary disinformation: we will enrich only your candidates, only your agendas, only your foundations, only your universities—in exchange for your exemptions.”
Antitrust legislation was as much an anathema to good liberals as rigging searches, institutionalizing the cancel culture, and censoring thoughts and ideas were welcomed. For now Trump, almost alone, is battling that revolution.
Until Trump’s arrival, there was increasingly no border at all. Fifty-million foreign-born resided, both legally and illegally, in the United States. Nearly a million annually walked northward across the border with ease and without legal sanction or invitation. To object to illegal immigration and decry its deleterious effects on the entry-level wages of our working poor, on the social safety net of the American needy, and on the sanctity of the law was to be smeared as racist, xenophobic, and nativist.
More than a quarter of California’s current resident population were not born in the United States. That desirous “new demography” since 1988 had flipped California into a caring blue state. Open borders and the end of immigration law enforcement had pushed Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado into just Democratic societies, and was supposedly soon to transform Texas and Arizona into enlightened states. For now, Trump—with his soon-to-be 400-mile wall, his beefed up ICE, and his war on sanctuary nullification zones—has nearly stopped the revolution to end borders.
Until Trump, the American interior was loser country. In-between the two gilded coasts resided the
deplorables, irredeemables,
clingers, the
smelly Walmart patrons decried in the Page-Strzok text echanges, those
John McCain called “crazies,” and Joe Biden has variously called the “
dregs,” the “chumps” and the “
ugly folks.” They were written off as Morlocks, who were occasionally seen poking about the rotting, rusting skeletons of abandoned steel plants, and for some reason never had proper orthodontics as children.
Obama laughed about the “magic wand” needed to revive these unrevivable people. Larry Summers reportedly called such an idea a “fantasy.” He was said to have praised the meritocracy that properly gives to such losers what they justly deserve. Very caring and very humane elites felt very little for supposedly very expendable riffraff.
Translated, that meant on the eve of the Chinese takeover, our clueless deplorables never learned to code, or to borrow $200,000 to get a woke-studies education, and so deserved the opioids they took and the trailers they crashed in.
Few apostates said, “Wait a minute! The United States has cheaper energy than anywhere on earth, a skilled workforce, a huge domestic market, and a still-viable infrastructure. There was a reason why Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania once led the world and why they can again.” Through tax reform, deregulation, trade rebooting, a new foreign policy, and loud jawboning, Trump for a while has stopped the revolution that was destroying our once greatest states.
Until Trump, the woke cultural wars were just about won by the elites. Seeking unity was dead; chest-pounding diversity, often the spark that had ignited history’s multiracial societies, was ascendent.
The melting pot that sought to make race incidental was deemed racist; the salad bowl that made our superficial appearances essential was celebrated. Quite affluent, self-appointed minority leaders, with their quite wealthy white liberal counterparts, established who is, and who “ain’t,” “really” black—the definition resting on whether one was loyally left-wing or disloyally independent-minded.
The success of civil rights was not to be calibrated by black unemployment figures, household income, family businesses, dignity in having leverage over employers, access to competitive parochial and charter schools, or descending abortion rates, but in electing more activists as progressive mayors, liberal city councilmembers, and leftist district attorneys to garner more redistributive state money to hire more careerists like themselves.
Trump, branded a bigot and racist, for now has sought to end that revolution, and measure race relations not by how many minority elites have choice jobs and high incomes, but by how well the
entire minority community reaches income and employment parity with the general population—an idea that will earn the “racist” Trump far greater minority support than was expressed for John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Can the Revolution Be Stopped?
We are in the midst of a cultural revolution, for the most part driven by angry middle-and upper-class white youth of Antifa and its sympathizers, wannabes, and enablers. Many are humiliated that they have college pedigrees, lots of multi thousand-dollar debt, plenty of woke-studies classes to their credit, but still have no real jobs, no real knowledge, and no real immediate chances of buying a house, marrying, and raising a family in their 20s.
Nothing in history is more dangerous than the underemployed wannabe intellectual or college graduate, whose cultivated sense of superiority is not matched by his income or standard of living, but who blames “them” for his own self-inflicted miseries and unappreciated genius.
The revolution toppled statues, renamed what it did not like, Trotskyized the past, photoshopped the present, and used language, government, and cultural intimidation to do its best to make America into
Animal Farm.
Corporate CEOs in terror washed the feet of the woke. University presidents, fearful for their status and careers, wrote incomprehensible memos admitting their past sins and asking how best to do present penance. Hollywood studio owners promised race and gender quotas, with ample provisions that—in the manner of NBA and NFL owners—adjustments and exceptions could be worked out for themselves.
Somewhere, somehow graduations, dorms, and campus spaces, all segregated by race, became “liberal.” Intermarriage, integration, and assimilation were shamefully illiberal. Standing for the National Anthem was unpatriotic; sitting in disdain for it, cool. Donald Trump fought that revolution too.
What tools did Donald Trump have to wage these many counterrevolutions?
The media? America’s Fortune 400? Academia? The great foundations? The nation’s think tanks? The bipartisan government establishment? The international community? The banks? Wall Street? Corporate CEOs? Silicon Valley? Professional sports? The entertainment industry? Hollywood? The intelligence community? The current and retired top military brass?
In fact, none of them. All had joined or enabled the revolution, on the theory either that their wealth and influence would shield them and their own from its excesses, or like naïve
Kerenskyites their status would impress and win over even those who targeted them, or they were inner revolutionaries themselves all along, just waiting to be freed at last by BLM and Antifa.
Against all that money and clout, the counterrevolutionary Trump had only one asset, the proverbial people. He had solely the under-polled and the written-off. They came out to his rallies in the tens of thousands, deluded the pollsters, and told the media less than nothing, but voted and will vote in waves to save America from what it was becoming.
Until Donald Trump’s arrival, the globalist revolution was almost solidified and institutionalized—with the United States increasingly its greatest and most “woke” advocate. We know its bipartisan…
amgreatness.com