- Joined
- May 16, 2019
For those wondering, the "exact tie" scenario seems to be gone right now. If Trump keeps PA but loses all the other swing states including AZ, he would have had 269-269... except that Biden flipped the Nebraska-2 district for 1 EV. Haven't run the full math, but it seems impossible to get a tie with any other combination.

This shit might come down to faithless electors in the actual EV College. And in 2016, there were 7 faithless electors. 20 fucking 20.
All of Trump's safety net is gone, he really needs AZ to come through, or pull off a NV miracle, or find 10's of thousands of fraudulent votes in one of the other midwest states.
If he can't overcome the margin of fraud in any of the other states, but the AZ GOP party are right about their state, he squeaks it by in the EV while improving his margins pretty much everywhere else.

By the way, Trump is doing better in both CA and NY than he did in 2016. His popular vote deficit shrank. He seems to have held his margins with most of the identifiable groups I've seen mentioned.
The only demographic he's doing notably worse in is boxes full of ballots that get opened at 4:00 AM.

This shit might come down to faithless electors in the actual EV College. And in 2016, there were 7 faithless electors. 20 fucking 20.
All of Trump's safety net is gone, he really needs AZ to come through, or pull off a NV miracle, or find 10's of thousands of fraudulent votes in one of the other midwest states.
If he can't overcome the margin of fraud in any of the other states, but the AZ GOP party are right about their state, he squeaks it by in the EV while improving his margins pretty much everywhere else.

By the way, Trump is doing better in both CA and NY than he did in 2016. His popular vote deficit shrank. He seems to have held his margins with most of the identifiable groups I've seen mentioned.
The only demographic he's doing notably worse in is boxes full of ballots that get opened at 4:00 AM.