2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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I am literally an Engineer.

Yes it is a mathematical proof, but what is the key thing we ALWAYS CHECK??? The Data set to see if there are any outliers.
Is the Mathematical proof applicable to this situation?

Now i have not worked with Benfords law as it is not applicable to my kind of work. I don't deal with money or any thing that would benefit from this kind of analysis.

I found this on Wikipedia as i read op on how it works.

Election data​

Benford's law has been controversially used as evidence of fraud in the 2009 Iranian elections.[34] A 2011 study by the political scientists Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook argued that Benford's law is highly problematic and misleading as a statistical indicator of election fraud.[35] The method was also criticized by Walter Mebane.[36]

So did some digging on this claim and the paper who sited it.
Source (35)

This is the article, but not to bore you and as this is my day off i will not dig into it more then a few things.

From the Article. Part of the Conclusion page 16. 9 Lines down.
it, in combination with what we know about the stochastic processes sufficient to yield digits in conformity with Benford’s Law, is that the Law is not universally applicable magic box into which we plug election statistics and out of which comes an assessment of an election’s legitimacy. This is not to say it is fruitless to search for special electoral contexts in which 2BL has some relevance, but our analysis suggests that the data required to validate that relevance must be richer than simple election returns

Now they could be wrong, but i am going to trust experts with nothing to gain in this over random people on the internet and this is literally the Dunning Kruger effect.

Now i am willing to hear your explanation why the Benford's Law is applicable and why it works with the current data set??.
Digging into it, because this is my field, their methodology EXPLICITLY notes that it breaks down at higher numbers.

"Given these considerations, then, we let the size of ‘‘precincts’’ in our simulations take one of three values—1000, 10,000, or 20,000—with the assumption that if we are compelled to rely on observations that average more than 20,000 eligible voters, the level of aggregation is likely to be too great for a confident assessment of things using any methodology."

In other words, their conclusion breaks down due to having issues with larger vote totals. I'd note as well that they are an outlier with other sources extolling the virtue of Benford's for finding electoral fraud, and the addition of this article to the wikipedia page TODAY implys hunting fir a source that disagrees. Still, a disagreeing source could see something the consensus does not.

Beyond that, I take issue with their simulation for other reasons. But those are mostly minor nitpicks about methodology.

Another note, at page 255-256 is them pointing out cases where the 1BL and 2BL conflict. These ARE good indicators of the law breaking down, but are irrelevant in this case as the 1BL and 2BL both concur.

In fact, going down to their conclusion, you have misrepresented it. They are specifically saying that 2B: is NOT a good indicator on its own, but say nothing about 1BL having such issues. And their very premise is that 2BL is unreliable, not 1BL.

And finally, the BIG methodological flaw in comparison. Their analysis assumes that there is homogeneity in the analysis, and that any examination of it with a comparable one will create differing results. In other words, its not replicable.

The problem here is that it is, and was 4 times with 4 cities.
 
Now see, the problem with that is whatever it is it is not remotely close to his ear. Furthermore, you can see two whatever that is on his arm. First one is near his ulna, shrinks down as he turns his wrist. The second one that everyone immediately notices, looks around, and then pops down afterwards.

This is either a rosary like people have said, or some x-files shit.

it was more of a joke, but...

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I am all for investigations.

HOW EVER i am not going to claim stolen election until i have evidence that it is true.

You might believe every thing with no critical thought at all because your felling's are hurt, but i want evidence.
Evidence to me is something can be proven. Now if you want to throw Conjecture around, then that is fine, but it is not evidence.

mate, that's a nice principle to have but the US elections being a fucking shitshow is an open secret. florida didn't revamp their voting system after it went up to the SCOTUS because it worked so great, you gonna have better luck finding an election where irregularities didn't happen. might as well ask for proof the sky is still blue at night.
 
We really need voting reform ...

First step would be to eliminate electronic voting and counting. Make EVERYTHING on paper and counted meticulously by actual people with a bipartisan group of spectators and judges.

Fuck bipartisan spectators. Bipartisan judges. Spectators shouldn't be from X or Y parties it should be OPEN TO THE PUBLIC like a real fucking democracy does it. Grab that fucking tweet from the dems claiming "elections aren't public you don't have the right to observe them" and ram it so far up their ass it comes back out from the throat by making it a constitutional necessity for ellections to be public.
 
Also consider this: In the three states that Trump lost, mail in ballots are electronically counted. They aren't checked by hand. What if the software is completely fucked and glitched out. And by denying anything, you keep this glitched software in circulation. What if it is voting error on a massive scale? What happens if your candidate will be a victim to it?
I think I already posted some news links already thinking the same thing or finding errors in the Dominion software.
 
We really need voting reform ...

First step would be to eliminate electronic voting and counting. Make EVERYTHING on paper and counted meticulously by actual people with a bipartisan group of spectators and judges.
If nothing else, this mess has gone a long way in highlighting the potential problems in the US voting system as it stands.

Win or lose, Trump's belligerent behaviour brought this to light that no one else has the power (or willingness) to.
 
We really need voting reform ...

First step would be to eliminate electronic voting and counting. Make EVERYTHING on paper and counted meticulously by actual people with a bipartisan group of spectators and judges.
Elections are handled at the state level, for the most part, so this is not an easy thing to tackle. We don't even know what exactly the problems may be, but yeah I strongly agree everything should be paper and handcounts. You absolutely need a paper trail. Tree genocide aside, the only downside is the time it takes to count which is a small price to pay for trust in the system.

I think as many vote counting areas should be livestreamed/recorded from here on out and those accessible by anyone who wants to view them. Many actual autists would go through hundreds of hours of boring ass footage and find pretty much everyone who was up to no good.
 
Biden declaring victory would make GEOTUS unlock Super Sayian 3. It would also embolden the GOP more into seeing how this demented fuck somehow managed winning with no crowds of any kind to turn up for him.

Tucker is basically getting closer and closer to calling this a rigged election. He has on people seeing it or calling it that way. Also brought up how glowie democrats are basically fed posting into wanting Trump supporters commit violence so Biden can use the 1807.

And the dumb fuck Keith Olbermann never saw the full clip and posted a tweet that Tucker was encouraging civil war and should be arrested when it was a democrat glowie who said it on Bill Maher.
I find Biden's language when approaching all of this to be very ... Careful. To me, it totally does look like Trump is daring Biden to declare victory so soon.

A part of me believes that Biden is not declaring victory because he's covering his ass in case the voter fraud is indeed exposed in the legal sense. If he were to declare victory, then wouldn't he be "connecting" himself to the fraud in the eyes of the law, or nah?
 
unlikely, because the US - and whoever sits in the white house - still has more than enough power to curbstomp anyone who tries, and will have for a long while. I posted about it a lot of pages back, but the circumstances for a successful violent uprising aren't in place (yet). even with biden the country won't turn into detroit over night, it's gonna a take a while getting there (in part due to people losing trust in the system and/or actively sabotaging it). most people who are angry now are gonna watch what happens and then react in their own limited way they can.
I also don't think we're at that stage yet but we're closer than we've ever been, even the sixties wasn't this bad because we were a more stable and homogeneous nation. Once people lose confidence in the political process, they lose faith in government and it starts to fall apart, in little ways. No one wants to join the military to fight for a country that shits on you. No one wants to pay taxes or follow laws. It has a cascading effect on society. I see de facto balkanization before outright civil war.

The USSR could also curbstomp anyone who went against the state. But fall it did, and very quickly.
 
Elections are handled at the state level, for the most part, so this is not an easy thing to tackle. We don't even know what exactly the problems may be, but yeah I strongly agree everything should be paper and handcounts. You absolutely need a paper trail. Tree genocide aside, the only downside is the time it takes to count which is a small price to pay for trust in the system.

I think as many vote counting areas should be livestreamed/recorded from here on out and those accessible by anyone who wants to view them. Many actual autists would go through hundreds of hours of boring ass footage and find pretty much everyone who was up to no good.
Look how damn long it's taking to count NOW, haha. I see no benefits of electronic voting at this point.

And yes, I completely agree with the livestreaming.
 
Something to note @RandomTwitterGuy , the source 'discrediting' Benford's law is a decade old. This is important because the article came out when political scientists were first trying to figure out how to best use it. It specifically notes 2BL is not a good indicator of fraud on its own... and yes. its not. Which is why the consensus a decade later is that 2BL and 3BL are good confirmations of 1BL, but NOT to be used as indicators by themselves.

It is actually a VERY useful piece, and while I have minor critiques of its methodology it goes a good ways to proving the limitations of 2BL.. Limitations well known, accepted, and accounted for a decade after its creation.
 
Just a thought:

How come the Democrats aren't trying to counter this with demanding investigation of states where Trump won?

They know they'll find more fraud. And turn even redder after it's corrected.

Elections are handled at the state level, for the most part, so this is not an easy thing to tackle. We don't even know what exactly the problems may be, but yeah I strongly agree everything should be paper and handcounts. You absolutely need a paper trail. Tree genocide aside, the only downside is the time it takes to count which is a small price to pay for trust in the system.

I think as many vote counting areas should be livestreamed/recorded from here on out and those accessible by anyone who wants to view them. Many actual autists would go through hundreds of hours of boring ass footage and find pretty much everyone who was up to no good.

Honestly having elections handled at the state level has to be the worst idea the founding fathers had. I get it, you want states to be autonomous. But if you ask me what a country needs to be a country it'd be:

1-an army.
2-a voting law.
3-a national treasury.
4-a bill of rights.

Hell even the army you could argue could be handled partially by the states so long as the higherups are handled by feds, and while a nation needs a single national treasury it's not weird for regional governments to have their own treasuries dependent on it.

But if you let regional governments dictate their voting law, that's just asking for election interference, the states can't be trusted with that shit any more than they're to be trusted not to enslave people. Regional governments are by enlarge manned by people who know they can get away with shit by blaming it on the feds. If they CAN get away with corrupt bullshit, then by god they WILL get away with corrupt bullshit. Handing them the keys to change election results is just plain stupid.

For the record this is NOT criticicing the EC, just the different ways to count votes. Having regional "circumscripciones" (the spanish term for the EC) is very common, but there's a huge difference between counting votes by region, and counting votes using different ways for every region. The first one ensures rural areas will be heard, the second ensures corrupt regions will interfere.
 
So I ended up missing the speech for some zs, and people are now saying that it’s weird?

No one at the platform, Biden speaking from his basement? Weird appearance- was this deepfaked?

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Also- why no accusations of fraud from the Biden side? Are they preparing that strategy, or are they that scared?
 
Also consider this: In the three states that Trump lost, mail in ballots are electronically counted. They aren't checked by hand. What if the software is completely fucked and glitched out. And by denying anything, you keep this glitched software in circulation. What if it is voting error on a massive scale? What happens if your candidate will be a victim to it?

We KNOW the machines were glitched. At least one district noticed that the tabulation receipt and the count the machine was spitting out were different and had to figure it out after the fact. As mentioned, two districts in Georgia were delayed by 2-3 hours because the company had to send techs out to unfuck the machines after a secret, unplanned, unvetted, unapproved update was sent to the machines by a technician. And there was that one machine that flipped 6000? votes to Biden, and when that was corrected, the Republican won the local election instead.
 
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