I deal in facts and reasonable expectations. When the State Legislatures started to move, that was when things changed. SC alone equals one moral victory in maybe PA and nowhere else. Combined with other avenues of attack, odds go up. Biden might still win, but this will likely wound him in a public fashion in that scenario.
I was a bit ahead of the curve for you on this, but you and I seem to have come at this from differing angles. I was busy focusing with minute detail on how my state (Wisconsin) was reacting to it. Wisconsin is a swing state, has been for some time, but has a solid majority Republican legislature. The governor only is a democrat by an election he won by a single percentage point, against a hideously unpopular candidate. So this state was what I would consider a bellwether of how other states were going to react.
What perked my ears early on was the Wisconsin legislature opening quiet inquiries into the election. They didn't want to stand out... but they weren't doing nothing.
This was just prior to Cruz and Graham going full hog with their support, and then McConnell and McCarthy announced tepid but clear support,
This was when I bumped up my bet from at best a 10% chance to probably around a 40%. Still not great, but nowhere near as awful. It was clear to me that this wasn't being taken lying down. It was an uphill battle though, and I still don't rank Trump's chances as better than a coin toss to win... but as long as he is not convinced to concede, he and the GOP will at least wound Biden hard.
And even if he loses, the future no longer looks bleak. The close look into Georgia revealed their plans for the Runoff and the legislature is already planning to fix that. Senate remains conservative and the infighting in the house will be fun to watch. Biden will be a lame duck, with FAR less wiggle room with his EOs than Obama due to the conservative supreme court. A Supreme Court who would likely have ruled against Trump in this scenario, but who isn't likely to just totally roll over and will give Biden an equally hard time with his EOs.
Additionally, a ton of swing states run by republicans look set to have some severe issues with how their elections are run. By being so blatant in so many ways, the course is clear and there is already quiet noise leaking to me that Wisconsin at least is looking at its election laws -very- closely.
And finally, the left is imploding. Trump is the only thing keeping them together. And while I originally thought Biden being a lame duck would be the worst thing they get, a -wounded- Biden is red meat for both factions in the left who hate his faction. The left is built on surviving a fair bit of cannibalism, but what is being set up with a wounded leadership in both sections of congress and the executive is nothing short of a feeding frenzy that the left -can't- easily absorb.
And the potential special prosecutor might not find anything, but I can guarantee you that the blue dog dems and the progressive will be as eager as the Republicans to find way to make such a prosecutor wound the establishment left even deeper.
The biggest irony here, is that this likely wouldn't have happened. The support for a full blown attack by the GOP was tepid at best and while congressional republicans and state legislators were looking and supporting, it was very quiet. Until The List appeared. That must be the single biggest political Own Goal I have ever seen in my life. Announcing, before any ink was dry on the page, your absolute intent to round people up and attack the Republicans. Ho-ly Shit. It put every single Republican's back against thew wall, and ensured that they had absolutely no reason NOT to go in.