- Joined
- Jul 11, 2018
And so the "fact checks" begin. Apparently dead people being registered to vote in MI is a crazy lie, but Trump is 100% a Russian Puppet guys.
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The argument never was that mail in votes wouldn't skew Biden, you shill, but that implausible 100% 138k batches for Biden and literally no one else is suspicious, that unrealistically high turnout in certain cities with no clear oversight is suspicious, that poll watchers were denied their duty to observe is suspicious, that glitches ended up switching Trump votes to Biden votes is suspicious, that counting was done in the middle of the night when they claimed they stopped counting is suspicious, the list goes on
Moreover, in Milwaukee, 69.4% went to Biden and 29.4% went to Trump with 1.2% going third-party/write-in. It is statistically impossible for absolutely 0 of 138k mail-in votes to go to Trump or third-party/write-in. Finding precincts where literally 100% go to one candidate is rare (you may find it every now and then in precincts that are entirely african american, but those only are in groups of ~200, not >100,000). Having a batch of over 100,000 mail-in ballots that go for only one candidate is incredibly shady.
A most interesting thread popped up on Twitter Sunday from a data scientist who wishes to remain anonymous, regarding mail-in ballot data which strongly suggests fraud occurred in the wee hours of election night, when several swing states inexplicably stopped reporting vote counts while President Trump maintained a healthy lead over Joe Biden.
Using time series data 'scraped' from the New York Times website, the data - comparing several states (swing and non-swing) - clearly illustrates what fraud does and does not look like, and how several anomalies in swing states left 'fingerprints of fraud' as Biden pulled ahead of President Trump.
Presented below via @APhilosophae:
The following information is provided via an anonymous data scientist and another anonymous individual who wrote a script to scrape the national ballot counting time series data of off the @nytimes website.
— CulturalHusbandry (@APhilosophae) November 9, 2020
This is based on their proprietary "Edison" data source which would ordinarily be impossible to access for people outside the press. The CSV is available here. And the script to generate it is here. I suggest that everyone back up both of these files, bc this is an extremely important data source, and we cant risk anyone taking it down.
What we are looking at will be time series analysis and you will see that it is extremely difficult to create convincing synthetic times series data. By looking at the times series logs of the ballot counting process for the entire country, we can very easily spot fraud.
One of the first things noticed while exploring the dataset is that there seems to be an obvious pattern in the ratio of new #Biden ballots to new #Trump ballots.
As we can see on this log-log plot, for many of the counting progress updates, we see an almost constant ratio of #Biden to #Trump. It's such a regular pattern that we can actually fit a linear regression model to it with near-perfect accuracy, barring some outliers. How could this be possible? Is this a telltale sign of fraud? Surprisingly, as it will be shown, the answer is no! This is actually expected behavior. Also, we can use this weird pattern in the ballot counting to spot fraud!
Here is the same pattern for Florida. We see this linear pattern again.
And again (Texas)
And again (South Dakota)
And again all over the country. What appears to be happening is that points on the straight line are actually mail in votes. The reason they're so homogeneous across with respect to the ratio of #Biden vs #Trump votes is that they get randomly shuffled in the mail like a deck of cards. Since the ballots are randomly mixed together during transport, spanning areas occupied by multiple voting demographics, we can expect the ratio of mail-in #Biden ballots to mail-in #Trump ballots will remain relatively constant over time and across different reporting updates.
Lets dig a little deeper into this:
Here is a plot of the same Florida voting data, but this time it's the ratio of #Biden to #Trump ballots, versus time. What we see is that the initial ballot reportings are very noisy and "random".
The initial reporting represents in-person voting. These vote reports have such large variation bc in-person voting happens across different geographic areas that have different political alignments. We can see this same pattern of noisy in-person voting, followed by homogeneous mail-in reporting in almost all cases. What we see in almost all examples across the country is that the ratio of mail-in Dem to Rep ballots is very consistent across time, but with the notable drift from Dem to slightly more Rep.
This slight drift from D to R mail-ins occurs again and again, and is likely due to outlying rural areas having more R votes. These outlying areas take longer to ship their ballots to the polling centers.
Now we're getting into the really good stuff. When we see mail-in ballot counting where there isn't relatively stable ratios of D and R ballots that slightly drift R, we have an anomaly! Anomalies themselves are not necessarily fraud, but they can help us spot fraud more easily.
Now let's look at some anomalies:
This is the Wisconsin vote counting history log. Again, on the Y axis we have the ratio of D to R ballots in reporting batch, and on the X axis we have reporting time. Around 4am there, there is a marked shift in the ratio of D to R mail-in ballots. Based on other posts in this thread, this should not happen. This is an anomaly, and while anomalies are not always fraud, often they may point to fraud.
Around 3am Wisconsin time, a fresh batch of 169k new absentee ballots arrived. They were supposed to stop accepting new ballots, but eh, whatever I guess.
— CulturalHusbandry (@APhilosophae) November 9, 2020
By 4am the D to R ratio was all thrown out of whack. That is because these ballots were not sampled from the real Wisconsin voter population, and they were not randomized in the mail sorting system with the other ballots. They inherently have a different D to R signature than the rest of the ballots quite possibly bc additional ballots were added to the batch, either through backdating or ballot manufacturing or software tampering. This of this being kind of analogous to carbon-14 dating, but for ballot batch authenticity.
Lets look at another anomaly (Pennsylvania):
Here is Pennsylvania's vote counting history. For the first part of the vote counting process, we see the same pattern for mail-in ballots that we've seen in every other state in the country, which is relatively stable D to R ratio that gradually drifts R as more ballots. But then as counting continues, the D to R ratio in mail-in ballots inexplicably begin "increasing". Again, this should not happen, and it is observed almost nowhere else in the country, because all of the ballots are randomly shuffled in the mail system and should be homogeneous during counting. The only exceptions to this are other suspect states that also have anomalies.
Again, this is evidence of ballot backdating, manufacturing of software tampering.
Lets look at another anomaly:
In Georgia we see pretty much the same story as Pennsylvania: increasing fractions of mail-in D ballots over time even though it defies logic and we see this pattern no where else in the country.
In Michigan, we see a combination of Wisconsin strangeness, together with the GA/PA weirdness. We see both signs of contaminated ballot dumping, and ballot ratios drifting toward dems when they should not be.
Virginia:
Now in fairness, VA is the only state out of the 50 that has anomalies but has not had accusations of voter fraud, yet. I think this is the exception that proves the rule. Yet to figure out what causes this anomalous shift, but here it is so no one accuses me of holding it back.
Lets wrap this up: It appears Dems shot themselves in the foot bc making everyone do mail-in ballots actually makes it easier to catch mail-in ballot fraud. Bc all of the ballots go through the postal system, they get shuffled like a deck of cards, so we expect reported ballot return to be extremely UNIFORM in terms of D vs R ratio, but to drift slightly towards R over time bc some of those ballots travel farther. This pattern proves fraud and is a verifiable timestamp of when each fraudulent action occurred.
Which way do you think that error would go?Heard there was a 20k error in WI. Any detailed source? And which way did that error go?
Literally sharing NYTimes and Washington Post articles LMAO.
1. Even if the 138k figure was an honest reporting error, that does not explain the heavy stack of mail-in votes counted at 4am in suspicious circumstances.
2. A GWB appointee =/= impartial judge. People being "let into the room" =/= properly being allowed to do their duty. And that doesn't explain the multiple cases of observers not being let in and rooms being boarded up.
And LOL at this: "But despite his party registration, McCafferty, 52, is a Trump supporter who helps his son run a pro-Trump Facebook page that has secured his son appearances on Russian state media and the far-right website Infowars, The Washington Post found. A city spokesman said he was ejected for breaking a rule against filming."
and the comment from that WaPo article: "So this McCafferty mope works on his son's pro-trump Facebook page, which led to his son appearing on Russian media. Well, that says it all."
dripping with bullshit, try harder shill
AFAIK the PA lawsuit wasn't really about being barred or not allowed in the room (That allegation was from MI).1. The 138k number was a mistake – Shiawassee county's typo that was corrected within 20 min. And it happened in Michigan, not Wisconsin. Here's my previous post on the subject. Here's another source.
2. The Trump lawsuit in Philadelphia, PA about GOP observers being barred from observing turned out to be false. Not only was the observer they held up lying about the reason he was kicked out (he was filming people and their votes), but the Republican City Committee attorney was put in a very awkward position when a nonpartisan observer from Protect Our Vote stated that not only had she observed dozens of GOP observers, but she personally spoke to the GOP city attorney while there. Turns out, there were actually more Repub observers than Dem observers. Attorneys for Trump were forced to concede that there were indeed GOP observers in the room, in contrast to what their lawsuit claimed. The (Bush-appointed) judge replied, "I’m sorry, then what’s your problem?"
AFAIK the PA lawsuit wasn't really about being barred or not allowed in the room (That allegation was from MI).
It was that they restricted to an area so far away so far away they couldn't effectively observe, which is why the court ruled they would need to be allowed at least within 6 feet (as close as possible while respecting social distancing).
I'm sure they threw a bunch of other shit in the lawsuit to see what sticks, and that's the one that did.
That case was based on observer Brian McCafferty's allegations, which collapsed in court. That case was before Judge Paul S. Diamond on Thurs evening.At the city’s federal courthouse on Thursday evening, attorneys for Trump asked a judge to issue an emergency order to stop the count, alleging that all Republican observers had been barred. (src)
They won this case when Democrat observers agreed.Trump’s attorneys complained to Pennsylvania courts that any observers allowed inside the Philadelphia count were being stationed too far from the activity to see what was going on. [...] On Thursday morning, Trump’s team won a state court order to move observers within six feet of the count — as close as city officials said was safe amid the pandemic. (src)
So Trump's lawyers failed to produce a single affidavit or eyewitness to back up their claim that observers were barred. Meanwhile, others verified that Republican observers were present.Consistent with MCL 168.674, the Detroit City Clerk did make appointments of inspectors. Both Republican and Democratic inspectors were present throughout the absent voter counting board location.
An affidavit supplied by Lawrence Garcia, Corporation Counsel for the City of Detroit, indicated he was present throughout the time of the counting of absentee 2 ballots at the TCF Center. Mr. Garcia indicated there were always Republican and Democratic inspectors there at the location. He also indicated he was unaware of any unresolved counting activity problems.
By contrast, plaintiffs do not offer any affidavits or specific eyewitness evidence to substantiate their assertions. Plaintiffs merely assert in their verified complaint "Hundreds or thousands of ballots were duplicated solely by Democratic party inspectors and then counted." Plaintiffs' allegation is mere speculation.
In the present case, Plaintiffs allege that the preparation and submission of "duplicate ballots" for "false reads" without the presence of inspectors of both parties violates both state law, MCL 168. 765a ( 10), and the Secretary of State election manual. However, Plaintiffs fail to identify the occurrence and scope of any alleged violation.
why do you lump in the successful case regarding the observer distance with cases that were found to be baseless? your use of language is interesting as you seem to be using the observer distance case as proof that the trump lawyers have not lobbied a successful barring case or meaningful evidence of being barred (which is true as far as i know.) youre replying to @introvertedobserver as if he was making a claim about people being barred, but he was just clarifying what he knew.There were multiple filings in PA. This one was indeed (falsely) about observers being barred:
That case was based on observer Brian McCafferty's allegations, which collapsed in court. That case was before Judge Paul S. Diamond on Thurs evening.
The other case in PA you're referring to was Thurs morning before Judge Christine Fizzano Cannon:
They won this case when Democrat observers agreed.
The case in MI you're referring to were also found to be baseless. Here's the ruling by Judge Timothy M. Kenny:
So Trump's lawyers failed to produce a single affidavit or eyewitness to back up their claim that observers were barred. Meanwhile, others verified that Republican observers were present.
I didn't lump them. Introvertedobserver mistakenly conflated them. I was clarifying that they were two separate cases. That's why I mentioned the two different judges and two different times they were heard.why do you lump in the successful case regarding the observer distance with cases that were found to be baseless?
He stated, "AFAIK the PA lawsuit wasn't really about being barred or not allowed in the room (That allegation was from MI)." So I described the PA case about being barred, the PA case about distance, and the MI case about being barred. I mentioned the result of the MI case since I believe that he responded because he figured RedStorm couldn't have meant PA when he said, "poll watchers were denied their duty to observe is suspicious" (which I was rebutting when I mentioned the PA lawsuit). So I described the MI case to explain how that, too, turned out to be baseless (so that regardless of whether RedStorm was referring to PA or MI, the point stands.)youre replying to @introvertedobserver as if he was making a claim about people being barred, but he was just clarifying what he knew.
I have no idea what you're referring to.youre being called a shill because of the way you speak. when given adequate proof of at least one legal case proving improper behavior by counting staff you seem to completely hand wave it away and then lump it in with cases "also found to be baseless". you also replied with knowledge of the cases you previously asked for citations for. did you look these up after sending your messages or did you already have them ready to use as a cudgel?
The fuck you think I've been doing for multiple pages lolif you have important information, especially links to the cases themselves, then please, post them to refute any claims made in this thread.
Yup, you got me. Biden is paying me to post on Kiwifarms.i really cant tell if youre just kinda dumb or are payed to do this, but you have the actions of someone well versed in goalpost shifting. maybe im reading to much into what you posted but idk, you seem weird.
make sure you archive stuff, its easier than you thinkThe agents involved with this need to hang: https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1326323334800437248?s=20
More whistleblowers coming forward, and this brave man standing his ground against blatant intimidation.
"I am trying to twist you a little bit" fucker
Huh.
View attachment 1720017
Note the time of the change, note the number of votes: Approximately 4-5 AM 11/04, -169,000.
View attachment 1720018
Note the time of the change, note the number of votes: Approximately 4-5 AM 11/04, +169,000.
Coincidence?
related story detailing that one of the usb drives that contained some of the tabulated ballot results was lost by the person in charge of handing them off to the election committee, and was handed back to her by some unknown poll worker.Saw that in the election 2020 thread in Deep thoughts and it made me do a thunk.