Clayton Ray Huff / Dream / DreamOnPvP / DreamTraps / DreamAF / DreamXD / DeltaKnight / DreamSkilful / Clayman23 - Fat Minecraft Youtuber with fans that want to torture and rape him and are in denial that he's fat.

[Clorox Cowboy]

I was off by one, I was correcting someone who said it was 20 runs, even if it was 20 that's way to small a sample size, and they didn't even run a control test to build a baseline. And for those saying the other streamers "median" runs were the control that's also false because that was also an incomplete data set.

to prove dream or anyone for that matter had anomalous runs have to run a test on a group of his runs that you "hypothesize" to not have been tampered with. That's you control. The you got to the data you "hypothesize" to be tampered with and run numbers through the EXACT same process as you control. that gives you your first Variable. we can call that V1.

Now you can compare V1 to the control and draw all kinds of conclusions because by definition they wont be the same set of numbers. so now with just 2 sets of numbers you STILL don't have enough information to draw any accurate conclusions. You then need to cultivate V2, V3, ect... until you have enough data setts to show a reliable trend AND be able to prove it under sever scrutiny.

THATS THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS FAGS, it is robust for a fucking reason.

So these niggers jannies on speedrun dot com just got one variable and then a polluted control and called it a day and all the semi intellectuals of the internet took one look at the complicated numbers on one side and the faggot ass mine crafter for kids on the other and just immediately went picked a side without using the amount of intelligence a rat would use to differentiate shit from food to inform their decision

Dude, he had perfectly normal results for the few past sessions he'd done, and then in one 24 hour period his luck stat shot up dramatically and he refuses to show or even talk about what was in his mod folder. Setting aside any and all mathematics and just looking at the bigger picture shows he was acting suspiciously.

His refusal to comply combined with results that can't even be replicated in hypothetical tests are damning, and I feel you need to be a massive fanboy to even entertain that there wasn't any sort of tomfoolery.

 

[TeamRooted]

Why the attention on the (way) underaged sister though. Seems questionable to fixate there but hey thanks for saving the internet from minecraft cheaters.

Knew he was going to read his own dox, so we wanted to piss him off.

I apologize if this question is dumb, but assuming this Discord server is private, how did you get this screenshot? Do you have any more from that server that could possibly be relevant? I'm really curious to see if Dream's said anything more about his dox making the rounds again.

Karl Jacobs aka charity-porn man Jimmy Donaldson's dick-riding yes-man leaked an invite to the "Dream SMP" Discord server a few months ago. Whole thing got flooded and chat logs got dumped

Pretty sure that's his brother right?

Yup

 

[Make Anime Illegal]

I was off by one, I was correcting someone who said it was 20 runs, even if it was 20 that's way to small a sample size, and they didn't even run a control test to build a baseline. And for those saying the other streamers "median" runs were the control that's also false because that was also an incomplete data set.

to prove dream or anyone for that matter had anomalous runs have to run a test on a group of his runs that you "hypothesize" to not have been tampered with. That's you control. The you got to the data you "hypothesize" to be tampered with and run numbers through the EXACT same process as you control. that gives you your first Variable. we can call that V1.

Now you can compare V1 to the control and draw all kinds of conclusions because by definition they wont be the same set of numbers. so now with just 2 sets of numbers you STILL don't have enough information to draw any accurate conclusions. You then need to cultivate V2, V3, ect... until you have enough data setts to show a reliable trend AND be able to prove it under sever scrutiny.

THATS THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS FAGS, it is robust for a fucking reason.

So these niggers jannies on speedrun dot com just got one variable and then a polluted control and called it a day and all the semi intellectuals of the internet took one look at the complicated numbers on one side and the faggot ass mine crafter for kids on the other and just immediately went picked a side without using the amount of intelligence a rat would use to differentiate shit from food to inform their decision

The sample size is not the number of runs, its the number of blaze rod barters. They analyzed enough to get a p-value generously less than 5e-11, so the sample size was obviously more than large enough.

 

[5ever a crab]

Pretty sure that's his brother right?

oh god im retarded pls rape me
edit: let me salvage this somehow

Spoiler

 

[StudMccool]

The sample size is not the number of runs, its the number of blaze rod barters. They analyzed enough to get a p-value generously less than 5e-11, so the sample size was obviously more than large enough.

I'm going to try and make it simple.

if you want to conduct a survey of how many Americans on average are sick and then you pick 100 sick Americans for your test and say "wow 100% of America must be sick" you haven't proved much

 

[Make Anime Illegal]

I'm going to try and make it simple.

if you want to conduct a survey of how many Americans on average are sick and then you pick 100 sick Americans for your test and say "wow 100% of America must be sick" you haven't proved much

Thats not what you do. You say something like "> 95% of Americans are sick." Then if you sample 100 Americans and find that they are all sick, there is a less than 0.6% chance of that happening if you were wrong. That's a p-value. The definition of a too small sample size is one that can't get you a p-value that is small enough.

 

[FlightlessB]

I was off by one, I was correcting someone who said it was 20 runs, even if it was 20 that's way to small a sample size, and they didn't even run a control test to build a baseline. And for those saying the other streamers "median" runs were the control that's also false because that was also an incomplete data set.

to prove dream or anyone for that matter had anomalous runs have to run a test on a group of his runs that you "hypothesize" to not have been tampered with. That's you control. The you got to the data you "hypothesize" to be tampered with and run numbers through the EXACT same process as you control. that gives you your first Variable. we can call that V1.

Now you can compare V1 to the control and draw all kinds of conclusions because by definition they wont be the same set of numbers. so now with just 2 sets of numbers you STILL don't have enough information to draw any accurate conclusions. You then need to cultivate V2, V3, ect... until you have enough data setts to show a reliable trend AND be able to prove it under sever scrutiny.

THATS THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS FAGS, it is robust for a fucking reason.

So these niggers jannies on speedrun dot com just got one variable and then a polluted control and called it a day and all the semi intellectuals of the internet took one look at the complicated numbers on one side and the faggot ass mine crafter for kids on the other and just immediately went picked a side without using the amount of intelligence a rat would use to differentiate shit from food to inform their decision

How is the control group polluted in this case? In my reading of the report, the control group is modeled using the binomial distribution. For RNG tisms it seems appropriate to assume it's binomial since the point of an RNG is to produce independent random samples. If you want to go there, Dream's "expert" from outer space disagrees that the binomial distribution is appropriate, but he's been rebuffed on that by r/statistics.

 

[Not Based or Redpilled]

Math Niggery

Math Niggery

Math Niggery

No one gives a shit what you math niggers are arguing about. Just call Clay a cheater and laugh at the reaction.

 

[narddog123]

Knew he was going to read his own dox, so we wanted to piss him off.

5/6 of his direct family doxed and you were like.. you know what would really make him mad.. the 13 year old!! Lets out the Minor!!! Flawless logic.

 

[TeamRooted]

5/6 of his direct family doxed and you were like.. you know what would really make him mad.. the 13 year old!! Lets out the Minor!!! Flawless logic.

5/6? 6/6 you mean. If you're referring to the people on Twitter posting her re-posting her face-pics, those aren't us. By "Why the attention on the (way) underaged sister though. Seems questionable to fixate there" I thought you were talking about the heading on the siblings section.

 

[Portajohn]

Spoilered due to length and not wanting to take the thread too far off-topic arguing over math

Spoiler: a bunch of math shit

I was off by one

You were off by a lot more than that. You still don't seem to understand the difference between five runs and six livestreams with dozens of runs each.

even if it was 20 that's way to small a sample size

No it isn't. Those streams include 262 piglin trades and 305 blaze kills, each of which is a statistically independent event with a known probability. That's more than enough data to come to a valid conclusion.

*a bunch of gibberish about controls and the scientific method*

The scientific method is for studying complex natural phenomena, not a deterministic video game where the internal PRNG and the probabilities of trades/drops are 100% known. Let's say you roll a 6-sided die 100 times and tally up how many rolls result in a 6. If you end up getting a 6 in 44 out of the 100 rolls, you don't need to get the scientific method involved to come to the conclusion that the die is weighted or otherwise not fair. All you have to do is plug your result into a binomial distribution calculator to see that the chance of rolling 44 or more 6's in 100 rolls with a fair die is approximately 1 in 13.9 billion (or, in other words, still roughly ten times more likely than Dream's ender pearl trade luck).

The MST essentially did the exact same analysis, just with some adjustments to take trade stoppages and potential accusations of P-hacking, biased sampling, etc. into account (all of which were favorable towards Dream).

They also compared hours upon hours of piglin trades/blaze rod drops from other top-tier runners' streams and found that none of them exhibited luck anywhere even close to the luck Dream had in his October streams. The other runners showed luck consistent with what a binomial distribution would predict.

So these niggers jannies on speedrun dot com just got one variable

They had two variables, actually - ender pearl trades and blaze rod drops. Those two items are uncraftable, absolutely crucial to a WR-pace run, and heavily RNG-dependent (especially ender pearls). Dream exhibited extremely unlikely luck for both items and insanely astronomically unlikely luck when they're considered together.

I'm going to try and make it simple.

if you want to conduct a survey of how many Americans on average are sick and then you pick 100 sick Americans for your test and say "wow 100% of America must be sick" you haven't proved much

The MST report anticipated counterarguments about biased sampling and addressed them (pretty well, IMO). It's not biased sampling to only consider the October streams when the only other time Dream did any livestreamed 1.16 runs was back in July.

 

[narddog123]

5/6? 6/6 you mean. If you're referring to the people on Twitter posting her re-posting her face-pics, those aren't us. By "Why the attention on the (way) underaged sister though. Seems questionable to fixate there" I thought you were talking about the heading on the siblings section.

I was saying without the underaged girl you still would have doxed 5/6. But the way you worded it was that it wasnt good enough until you dropped a Minors info also.

 

[TeamRooted]

I was saying without the underaged girl you still would have doxed 5/6. But the way you worded it was that it wasnt good enough until you dropped a Minors info also.

As I said before, by "Why the attention on the (way) underaged sister though. Seems questionable to fixate there" I thought you were talking about the heading on the siblings section. I don't see how I worded it like that in my response, considering all I said in response to what I presumed was a question about the heading of said section is that it was there to try and further piss off Clayton.

 

[narddog123]

As I said before, by "Why the attention on the (way) underaged sister though. Seems questionable to fixate there" I thought you were talking about the heading on the siblings section. I don't see how I worded it like that in my response, considering all I said in response to what I presumed was a question about the heading of said section is that it was there to try and further piss off Clayton.

I was referring to including her at all, but you've answered that so we are understood.

 

[Double Bacon Ass Burger]

5/6 of his direct family doxed and you were like.. you know what would really make him mad.. the 13 year old!! Lets out the Minor!!! Flawless logic.

Don't let your kids use social media. Don't post pictures of your kids on social media. Don't allow others to post pictures of your kids on social media. Not fucking difficult.

Follow those rules and doxers will never see your fucking kids.

 

[Unyielding Stupidity]

Dude, he had perfectly normal results for the few past sessions he'd done, and then in one 24 hour period his luck stat shot up dramatically and he refuses to show or even talk about what was in his mod folder. Setting aside any and all mathematics and just looking at the bigger picture shows he was acting suspiciously.

His refusal to comply combined with results that can't even be replicated in hypothetical tests are damning, and I feel you need to be a massive fanboy to even entertain that there wasn't any sort of tomfoolery.

The interesting part was those streams took place after he came back from a break in speedrunning, where before the break he complained about how RNG-heavy the 1.16 speedrun was due to ender pearl trades.

 

[StudMccool]

Spoilered due to length and not wanting to take the thread too far off-topic arguing over math

Spoiler: a bunch of math shit

You were off by a lot more than that. You still don't seem to understand the difference between five runs and six livestreams with dozens of runs each.

No it isn't. Those streams include 262 piglin trades and 305 blaze kills, each of which is a statistically independent event with a known probability. That's more than enough data to come to a valid conclusion.

The scientific method is for studying complex natural phenomena, not a deterministic video game where the internal PRNG and the probabilities of trades/drops are 100% known. Let's say you roll a 6-sided die 100 times and tally up how many rolls result in a 6. If you end up getting a 6 in 44 out of the 100 rolls, you don't need to get the scientific method involved to come to the conclusion that the die is weighted or otherwise not fair. All you have to do is plug your result into a binomial distribution calculator to see that the chance of rolling 44 or more 6's in 100 rolls with a fair die is approximately 1 in 13.9 billion (or, in other words, still roughly ten times more likely than Dream's ender pearl trade luck).

The MST essentially did the exact same analysis, just with some adjustments to take trade stoppages and potential accusations of P-hacking, biased sampling, etc. into account (all of which were favorable towards Dream).

They also compared hours upon hours of piglin trades/blaze rod drops from other top-tier runners' streams and found that none of them exhibited luck anywhere even close to the luck Dream had in his October streams. The other runners showed luck consistent with what a binomial distribution would predict.

They had two variables, actually - ender pearl trades and blaze rod drops. Those two items are uncraftable, absolutely crucial to a WR-pace run, and heavily RNG-dependent (especially ender pearls). Dream exhibited extremely unlikely luck for both items and insanely astronomically unlikely luck when they're considered together.

The MST report anticipated counterarguments about biased sampling and addressed them (pretty well, IMO). It's not biased sampling to only consider the October streams when the only other time Dream did any livestreamed 1.16 runs was back in July.

Christ alive I feel like my argument has been frakenstiend out of control.

I have 0 argument with the way they conducted the piglin blaze rod part, as far as my limited understanding goes that holds water HOWEVER, my point from the begining is there simply isent enough evidence to come to any "beyond a shadow of a reasonable doubt" conclusion

If the system of numbers they designed is so robust and according to you his overall sample size is so small why did they not take ALL his streams?

how did they just know witch ones he was cheating in before they ran the numbers?

They went and looked at his run when he submitted it, went "hmm his trades seem lucky" then went and found 6 other streams and took the BEST RUNS FROM EACH OF THEM NOT ALL OF THEM

So now they have is world record run and 6 more runs that were personal bests of his for each night, add that together and that's 7 runs that were all personal bests. How do you look at that and go "yes an even sample of his runs were gathered"

Even if they are 100% correct and he cheated like a black man on an IQ test why not put his other streams through the system of equations to give contrast of how much his luck changed

 

[Double Bacon Ass Burger]

Christ alive I feel like my argument has been frakenstiend out of control.

I have 0 argument with the way they conducted the piglin blaze rod part, as far as my limited understanding goes that holds water HOWEVER, my point from the begining is there simply isent enough evidence to come to any "beyond a shadow of a reasonable doubt" conclusion

If the system of numbers they designed is so robust and according to you his overall sample size is so small why did they not take ALL his streams?

how did they just know witch ones he was cheating in before they ran the numbers?

They went and looked at his run when he submitted it, went "hmm his trades seem lucky" then went and found 6 other streams and took the BEST RUNS FROM EACH OF THEM NOT ALL OF THEM

So now they have is world record run and 6 more runs that were personal bests of his for each night, add that together and that's 7 runs that were all personal bests. How do you look at that and go "yes an even sample of his runs were gathered"

Even if they are 100% correct and he cheated like a black man on an IQ test why not put his other streams through the system of equations to give contrast of how much his luck changed

Here is the be all end all to this argument. Clayton had the opportunity to defend himself and show evidence that he did not cheat. He responded "They're biased REEEEE!!"

That's an admission of guilt.

 

[StudMccool]

Here is the be all end all to this argument. Clayton had the opportunity to defend himself and show evidence that he did not cheat. He responded "They're biased REEEEE!!"

That's an admission of guilt.

I didn't realize the farms was as cancel hungry as twitter

what kind of kangaroo court argument is that? because some tranny on twitter accuses you anything suddenly you have to submit to some burden of proof just to not get canceled?

I don't care if clayton gets raped by a bear tomorrow, its the frenzy to blame and the guilty until proven innocent mentality I hate, it gives the dangerhairs way to much power

update: I stand by this as of January 26th 2021.

 

[Dumpster dived waifu]

I didn't realize the farms was as cancel hungry as twitter

what kind of kangaroo court argument is that? because some tranny on twitter accuses you anything suddenly you have to submit to some burden of proof just to not get canceled?

I don't care if clayton gets raped by a bear tomorrow, its the frenzy to blame and the guilty until proven innocent mentality I hate, it gives the dangerhairs way to much power

Listen, you dense mother fucker. Several people in the thread have already explained to you that you're fucking retarded. Stop shitting up the topic because you're too stupid to get it. Spergs did the math, the math checks out. Shut the fuck up about it.