It’s been about 7 months and 3000 pages since I said this, and Trump has lost. I think he would’ve won if not for fraud, but he lost enough support among whites, esp. white working class men in urban areas, that the margins were slim enough to fudge.
Nobody is talking about how Trump’s underwhelming response to the riots might have hurt him in 2020, since the riots have been basically memory-holed, so I might as well. IMO, Trump’s gambit was to let the cities burn so Dems would look worse. That gambit deservedly failed. You could argue these cities deserved what they got, but a lot of voters still live there.
And the rioters got away with it, no thanks to Trump. The GOP spent the first few months doing nothing, capitulating to BLM about criminal justice reform and crying at St. Floyd’s altar. Gotta get muh extra 4% of the black vote. Then, once they realized this was serious, made big noise about prosecuting Antifa as a terrorist org (though never BLM for some reason), but never followed through.
