Doomsperging incoming:
Has anyone else here read Peter Turchin? He’s a large scale systems historian who predicted a decade back that America was going to hit a bottleneck of crises starting in 2020 and continuing through the decade, very possibly leading to collapse. His view is that societies collapse when three factors come together:
1) elite overproduction - ruling class people reproduce too fast, either literally or by way of education, either way there are more Americans who believe that they deserve elite positions than there are chairs at the table. This leads to intraelite conflict, as they fight over status and the remaining good jobs. Eventually, many surplus elites become counterelites and ally with the plebes. Trump, IMO, was the first of many counterelite leaders. I’m starting to think that the woke religionists are really doing elite warfare. It’s a terrific grift for someone with a high progressive stack score who is otherwise shut out of elite positions. Right now they’re winning at alarming speeds of ideological capture, but if Turchin is right, it’s only a matter of time before a more disciplined version of Trump exploits the anger of normal people about this stuff and rides popular fury all the way to total government control, and/or Balkanization.
2) popular immiseration - it’s harder and harder to be an ordinary working person. Real wages have been flat for decades and you can’t assume you’ll do better than your parents anymore. Very few working class men can still support a family on one income. IMO blaming this sea change on mean feminists is really missing the mega point. The overpopulated elites need to suck more and more money out of the bottom 80% of the economy to keep themselves in the style to which they’d like to become accustomed. Feminism is a convenient scapegoat where you tell women that actually it’s empowering to put your baby in daycare at 6 weeks and go back to work. Anyway, the GOP is clearly starting to pivot toward positioning themselves as the party of the working class. Who can say if they’ll be successful sans Trump. But someone will rude who will speak directly to the anger of normal American men who want to work and provide and resent being told they aren’t allowed to protect their families against threats.
3) loss of faith in government institutions, culminating in a debt crisis where the full faith and credit of the United States means nothing.
It seems very likely to me that we’ll see outbreaks of actual racial violence (not the shrieking antifa accusation fake bullshit kind) within the year, accelerating as we head deeper into the 2020s. It also seems likely that some (media) elites are stoking racial tensions to keep working people from allying with each other and oiling the axles of their tumbrels. Or maybe it’s just an emergent property of a system where it pays better to be a talking head preaching fear and systemic racism. I can’t decide.
Either way, we should probably all leave the cities and learn to grow large quantities of potatoes.