Taliban offensive of 2021 and collapse of Afghan government.

People forget that the Taliban doesn't fuck around and apparently these two were hanged for being Child Kidnappers,
wtf I love the Taliban now
EDIT:

ATTN: GLOWIES
APPARENTLY MY EDIT WAS UNDONE BY THE ROLLBACK
I AM NOT -- REPEAT, NOT -- ACTUALLY IN SUPPORT OF THE TALIBAN. THIS IS A JOKE.

pls dont raid me daddy three letter agencies uwu
 
Last edited:
Maybe, I'm wrong but I don't see the Afghan government ever falling. The United States will use just the bare minimum amount of air power and special forces aid to keep it above water.

The Taliban may hold eighty percent or more of the country, but the Afghan government will be propped up indefinitely.

Why? I have no idea; pride, prestige, esoteric geopolitical concerns, or whatever but I just don't see any American administration letting Kabul fall to the Taliban under any circumstances.
 
Maybe, I'm wrong but I don't see the Afghan government ever falling. The United States will use just the bare minimum amount of air power and special forces aid to keep it above water.

The Taliban may hold eighty percent or more of the country, but the Afghan government will be propped up indefinitely.

Why? I have no idea; pride, prestige, esoteric geopolitical concerns, or whatever but I just don't see any American administration letting Kabul fall to the Taliban under any circumstances.
Air power and special forces won't keep a government in power.
 
Air power and special forces won't keep a government in power.
Depends on how you define "in power". If you mean holding the country and any sort of broad legitimacy then no. But keeping Kabul (relatively) secure, then air strikes whenever the Taliban get too close can keep that government from collapsing, even if it has ceased to exist everywhere else.

Which for the US, I imagine would be good enough.
 
View attachment 2412955
View attachment 2412950


People forget that the Taliban doesn't fuck around and apparently these two were hanged for being Child Kidnappers,
Post in on twitter, see how MAPs react
Depends on how you define "in power". If you mean holding the country and any sort of broad legitimacy then no. But keeping Kabul (relatively) secure, then air strikes whenever the Taliban get too close can keep that government from collapsing, even if it has ceased to exist everywhere else.

Which for the US, I imagine would be good enough.
You would have to airlift everything
 
  • Like
Reactions: jje100010001
Air power and special forces won't keep a government in power.
Well it would be enough to keep the powers in balance, if the locals would care,,, they wanna be Taliban, you cant suppres the civilians forever.
 
Some cities are managing to hold out against the daily assaults, but for how long?
Honestly my opinion is that the US should have negotiated with the neighbouring -Stan countries to the North and partitioned Afghanistan before it was too late, with the rump state being renamed Pastunistan. The Hazaras, with their own Shi'ite religion and unique ethnicity could have been formed into a new nationstate, or joined up with another one.

Modern Afghanistan was never going to be unified as a conglomerate of conquered peoples, with the Taliban really being a Pastun-lead force, and forces like the Northern Alliance being a hodgepodge of opposing ethnic militias. The country post-Soviet invasion is just too broken, and there is no real nationalism holding it together other than the preexisting inertia & fear of upsetting the local geopolitical order.

Unfortunately, my guess is that a plan like this was probably going to be opposed on multiple ends, not the least being that an Afghan partition 'unfreezes' several other frozen conflicts regarding separatism/partitioning & presents a ethical dilemma of the dismantling of a nation by outside forces. Secondly, the ethnic map is a bit messy, so a partition may evoke fears of a reprise of the Partition of India, with the massive bloodshed and migration that followed. There might have also been some doubts about the -Stans' ability to 'digest' additional territory, and a possible preference for keeping Afghanistan around as a weak and divided state.

1628300876772.png


@Dr. Barry Nyle: thats because nobody has been able/allowed to go the genocide route, but the chinese can
The Uighurs are one thing (trapped inside Chinese borders and under its administration + the information blackwall), but an entire independent, multiethnic state with a rather weak existing power structure & leaky borders is another.

The US would simply sit on the sidelines and do a reprise of the 1980s by charging up fear of China & arming various militia groups.

IMO, the Chinese will probably coopt the Taliban through bribery, and 'transform' them into a more palatable government at an international level (whatever stoning/hanging done will probably stay out in the countryside). Afghanistan will stay more or less recognizable as the Taliban lose some of their more religious trappings and become another corrupt authoritarian government. The people will probably be more or less as miserable as they are now, and China will have its mines (staffed by the Chinese), and a few showpiece infrastructure projects going on around the nation, especially around the capital.

wtf I love the Taliban now
As much as hanging kidnappers/pedos is a good thing, this may be just a PR statement- that the Taliban may instead be executing people it sees as problematic to its rule and providing a crime as a more palatable excuse (similar to how CCP in China arrests its political opponents under various other excuses like 'soliciting prostitutes' or 'tax fraud').

Many occupying armies do the same thing, snipping off any tall poppies to consolidate their rules.
 
Last edited:
Post in on twitter, see how MAPs react

You would have to airlift everything
Which the US can do. My guess is the war is a stalemate with the Taliban victorious outside of Kabul and maybe some other urban areas-a situation that could endure indefinitely(likely ending when the Chinese come in and negotiate some sort of peace with all parties from a position of genuine strength).

I could be wrong, but it doesn't cost the US much to occasionally do airstrikes if the Taliban get too close to the Afghan presidential palace.
 
Came across this in one of the war telegram channels. Leave no burger behind.

View attachment 2421897
As funny as the picture is, this likely was Iraq in 2003-04 based on the camo pattern for the BDU. They're still using swirls, almost every military has moved onto digital camo patterns for over 15 years.

Taliban Captures 2nd Provincial Capital in Two Days | TOLOnews


TOLOnews

3 minutes



The strategic city of Sheberghan, the capital of Jawzjan province in northern Afghanistan, fell to the Taliban after one week of clashes, sources confirmed.
Sources said that security forces are stationed only at the provincial airport in Khwaja Dako district, which is the hometown of former vice president Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum and is located 17 kilometers from the city of Sheberghan.
1628353561070.png

Sheberghan is the second provincial capital to fall to the Taliban in the last two days.
Jawzjan lawmakers blamed the government for inattention to the security situation in Jawzjan and said it has remained indifferent to this matter.
On Saturday morning, an aide to Dostum, Sayed Shamsuddin Sadat, said that at least 150 members of the public uprising forces loyal to Junbish and led by Commander Ali Sarwar have newly arrived in Sheberghan to help other forces on the ground.
Dostum’s son Yar Mohammad Dostum is leading the public uprising forces in their fight against the Taliban in Jawzjan.
Sadat said that some special forces members have also arrived in Sheberghan.
With the fall of Sheberghan, 15 media outlets, including TV stations and radio networks, have stopped operation in the province.
The Defense Ministry said that Afghan forces operations to suppress the Taliban are underway and that the situation in the country’s provincial capitals will soon return to normal.
On Friday, Taliban captured Zaranj city, the capital of Nimroz province in southwestern Afghanistan. Zaranj fell to the Taliban with no resistance by government forces.
This comes as President Ghani met with former vice president Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum on Saturday and discussed the country’s security situation, especially the situation in northern provinces, the Presidential Palace said.
In this meeting, Dostum vowed his full support to Afghan forces and said the time has come to make effort for improving the country’s security situation and for defending Afghanistan’s values.
Dostum’s spokesman Ehsanullah Nairo said that Dostum presented his plan for the improvement of the security situation to the president, and it was accepted by President Ghani.
“There will be significant improvements in military affairs,” he said. “A major meeting will be held in the coming days and the most important suggestion by Marshal Dostum to President Ghani was the announcement of an emergency status.”
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Last edited:
If anyone thinks JDAMs and drones are going to police the rural vs urban elements of this conflict I've got a great book that was rec'd to me by a viper pilot who was dropping bombs at Tora Bora: "The Limits of Air Power".
 
FROM:Penis Drager

The Taliban has seized control of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, local officials told CNN on Sunday. It is the first major city to fall to the insurgent group since they began their offensive in May, and marks a big blow to the Afghan government.

Kunduz is the third of four provincial capitals that the Taliban has captured in recent days, a string of victories that come as foreign forces, led by the United States, complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan. With a population of 375,000, Kunduz is a significant military prize.

On Sunday, Taliban forces mostly overran the provincial capital city of Sar-e-Pul, also in the country's north, marking another loss for the government amid a series of unprecedented advances by the insurgency in its 20-year war.




A member of the Sar-e-pul provincial council told CNN the city had fallen to the Taliban and that one remaining army base containing Afghan security forces was surrounded by Taliban fighters.

The Taliban said in a statement that they had taken the city. CNN has been unable to independently verify the group's claims.

In Kunduz, the Afghan Defense Ministry said commandos had taken back control of the city's General Raziq Square and the headquarters of the Kunduz National Radio and TV as fighting in the province continues.

Earlier in the day, a member of the Kunduz provincial council confirmed to CNN that most of the provincial capital had fallen to the Taliban.

The Taliban said that all parts of the city were under its control, adding that it had also seized armored vehicles, weapons and military equipment. CNN could not independently confirm the Taliban's claims.

Heavy fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security forces in the city on Saturday killed at least 11 civilians and wounded 40, according to Kunduz health director, Dr. Ehsanullah Fazli.

Provincial council member Gholam Rabani Rabani told CNN both sides had suffered casualties on Saturday during fighting on the outskirts of the city, and that the total number of fatalities was still unclear.

The Taliban briefly captured Kunduz in 2015 and again in 2016, before being pushed out by Afghan security forces.



Descent into violence​

The city of Zaranj, near the Iranian border, became the first provincial capital to fall into Taliban control on Friday. The following day, the insurgents seized Sheberghan, the provincial capital of Jawzjan, near the border of Turkmenistan.

The country's swift descent into violence following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops supporting the government has shocked many. There are fears even the national capital, Kabul, could fall.

The US has ramped up airstrikes against Taliban positions over the past week in a bid to halt the insurgents' advances as its drawdown of troops continues. "US forces have conducted several airstrikes in defense of our Afghan partners in recent days," Maj. Nicole Ferrara, a US Central Command spokesperson, told CNN Sunday, sidestepping a question about the targets of the strikes.

The Taliban has accused the US of bombing a hospital and a high school, along with other civilian targets in Helmand Province. CNN could not independently verify their claims.

The US Embassy in Kabul criticized the Taliban's offensive on Afghan cities on Sunday, saying its actions to "forcibly impose its rule are unacceptable and contradict its claim to support a negotiated settlement in the Doha peace process. They demonstrate wanton disregard for the welfare and rights of civilians and will worsen this country's humanitarian crisis."

Assassinations of the Taliban's critics have happened alongside the fighting. Scores of social activists, journalists, bureaucrats, judges and public figures fighting to sustain a liberal Islamic administration have been targeted and killed by Taliban fighters in a bid to silence voices of dissent in the war-torn country, Reuters reported.

In Kabul, Taliban attackers on Friday killed Dawa Khan Menapal, director of the Afghan government's media and information center. On Tuesday, the district governor of Sayed Abad in Maidan Wardak, Amir Mohammad Malikzai, was also killed by Taliban fighters in Kabul, government officials have told CNN.

On Saturday, the US Embassy in Kabul urged American citizens to leave the country "immediately using available commercial flight options."

"Given the security conditions and reduced staffing, the Embassy's ability to assist US citizens in Afghanistan is extremely limited even within Kabul," the embassy said in a statement.

The UK's Foreign Office updated its advice on Friday, telling its nationals to leave Afghanistan by commercial means.
 
Back