Taliban offensive of 2021 and collapse of Afghan government.

If the taliban gain full control and remain in power for a long period of time (10 years), will afghanistan become stable? I've never once heard of a Stable Afghanistan so i don't even know if its possible. What are the odds of a insurgent or militia group trying to overthrow the taliban government? What happens if americans and the west dont intervene at all (not even with dubious funds towards opposition)? A economically viable Afghanistan would be wonderful but that isn't possible without long term stability and trust.

As far as I know, the Taliban is primarily Pashtun-led, so it really depends how tyrannical they act towards other minorities, especially the Hazaras, who have a clearly Mongol appearance, and follow Shia Islam.

As such, it also follows as to how fast these other minority groups can start to reorganize and rearm themselves before the Taliban get to their areas.
 
There's two books by that title, one by Shinella and one by Clodfelter. Which is the one you're referring to?
I was interested to look at these books. Sadly Shinella offed himself on his front lawn, whilst his wife of only some weeks, was attempting to get away from him. A large haul of bondage and S&M gear along with 24 guns were found hidden in his home. Or were they?
Not sure I could read it now knowing about his penchant for kinky ness, or did they? https://theintercept.com/2020/08/26/cia-national-intelligence-official-suicide/
 
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wtf I love the Taliban now
It's the Taliban. You can have up to four 9 year olds as long as you marry them properly first. These guys were hung for procedural violations.

(In all fairness to the Taliban, when they conquer a town they do ask for available brides to be around 15, as they consider 9 to be really pushing it.)
 
It's the Taliban. You can have up to four 9 year olds as long as you marry them properly first. These guys were hung for procedural violations.

(In all fairness to the Taliban, when they conquer a town they do ask for available brides to be around 15, as they consider 9 to be really pushing it.)
Pretty much. The Taliban are A-OK with child-fucking so long as its little girls you've forced into an AK marriage and not little boys that have been prettied up.
 
"Why didn't the US divide Afghanistan among other -stan countries?'

Aside from that being a huge no-no diplomatically, to the point it would never have happened even if Bush willed it, look how swimmingly breaking countries apart on ethnic lines worked for Europe post-ww1.
 
I wonder if there are any nukes in the US embassy In Kabul.
It would be a funny way to end the occupation.
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We also need to remember that Afghanistan went to shit when their king was couped out by his shit cousin. Then the commie took over and started a reign of terror, which fractured the country and created the mess which gave the Soviet the excuse to move in.
 
Honestly my opinion is that the US should have negotiated with the neighbouring -Stan countries to the North and partitioned Afghanistan before it was too late, with the rump state being renamed Pastunistan. The Hazaras, with their own Shi'ite religion and unique ethnicity could have been formed into a new nationstate, or joined up with another one.

Modern Afghanistan was never going to be unified as a conglomerate of conquered peoples, with the Taliban really being a Pastun-lead force, and forces like the Northern Alliance being a hodgepodge of opposing ethnic militias. The country post-Soviet invasion is just too broken, and there is no real nationalism holding it together other than the preexisting inertia & fear of upsetting the local geopolitical order.

Unfortunately, my guess is that a plan like this was probably going to be opposed on multiple ends, not the least being that an Afghan partition 'unfreezes' several other frozen conflicts regarding separatism/partitioning & presents a ethical dilemma of the dismantling of a nation by outside forces. Secondly, the ethnic map is a bit messy, so a partition may evoke fears of a reprise of the Partition of India, with the massive bloodshed and migration that followed. There might have also been some doubts about the -Stans' ability to 'digest' additional territory, and a possible preference for keeping Afghanistan around as a weak and divided state.

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The Uighurs are one thing (trapped inside Chinese borders and under its administration + the information blackwall), but an entire independent, multiethnic state with a rather weak existing power structure & leaky borders is another.

The US would simply sit on the sidelines and do a reprise of the 1980s by charging up fear of China & arming various militia groups.

IMO, the Chinese will probably coopt the Taliban through bribery, and 'transform' them into a more palatable government at an international level (whatever stoning/hanging done will probably stay out in the countryside). Afghanistan will stay more or less recognizable as the Taliban lose some of their more religious trappings and become another corrupt authoritarian government. The people will probably be more or less as miserable as they are now, and China will have its mines (staffed by the Chinese), and a few showpiece infrastructure projects going on around the nation, especially around the capital.


As much as hanging kidnappers/pedos is a good thing, this may be just a PR statement- that the Taliban may instead be executing people it sees as problematic to its rule and providing a crime as a more palatable excuse (similar to how CCP in China arrests its political opponents under various other excuses like 'soliciting prostitutes' or 'tax fraud').

Many occupying armies do the same thing, snipping off any tall poppies to consolidate their rules.
But partitioning Afghanistan along ethnic lines is an admission that different groups persue their own self-interests which would be... problematic for America. In any case it's a non-starter because its so muddied. That map would lead you to think you could excise the Turkmens and most of the Tajiks relatively easily, but there would still be millions dispersed throughout the rump state, and this is to say nothing of all the other ethnic groups living side-by-side, valley-by-valley.

The salient issue is that as long as the different tribes put their loyalty to kin before the state then the Taliban (or some approximation) will have the recruiting pool available to conquer the whole thing. Why risk getting outmaneuvred by smaller factions propped up by foreign adversaries when you could smash them and take control of the whole territory yourself?
 
Looks like it’s time to take the L.

yea, as much as ARVN was considered a joke during Vietnam, a fair number of them still stood and fought for quite a while even after most of the US backed out. this is just shameful otoh - I'd imagine well over 50% of all Afghan forces were just bought off with EZ bribe money and told to stand down by whichever officer got bought.
 

Taliban fighters capture 10th Afghan provincial capital after days of sweeping gains​


Ezzatullah Mehrdad, Susannah George 5 hrs ago

4-5 minutes



KABUL — As Ghazni’s capital fell to the Taliban on Thursday amid days of sweeping territorial gains by militants, the province’s governor was arrested while fleeing, according to a spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry.
a person is walking down the street: A Taliban fighter poses for a photo as he patrols inside the city of Ghazni, southwest of Kabul, on Thursday, Aug. 12, 2021. The Taliban captured the provincial capital on Thursday, the 10th the insurgents have taken over a week-long blitz across Afghanistan.
© Gulabuddin Amiri/AP A Taliban fighter poses for a photo as he patrols inside the city of Ghazni, southwest of Kabul, on Thursday, Aug. 12, 2021. The Taliban captured the provincial capital on Thursday, the 10th the insurgents have taken over a week-long blitz across…
Ghazni is the 10th provincial capital to fall to the Taliban in less than a week. The city — about 80 miles southwest of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul — had been under siege by the militants for over three months.
Videos circulating on social media appeared to show Ghazni’s governor being escorted out of the province by Taliban fighters. The videos showed Mohammad Dawood Laghmani riding in a convoy of armored vehicles through Taliban checkpoints in territory under the militants’ control.
As the Taliban expands its control across the country, fears are growing among Afghans that surrender deals made between government and military leaders and the Taliban will only fuel the militants’ advances. Many districts and a handful of provincial capitals fell to the fighters with little to no resistance.
On Wednesday, in the country’s north, hundreds of Afghan forces surrendered after a deal was brokered between Taliban leaders and commanders at a base on the edge of Kunduz city. The troops handed over dozens of Humvees and weapons in a move that allowed the Taliban to consolidate its control of the north.
An Interior Ministry spokesman, Mirwais Stanikzai, said Ghazni’s governor was arrested by the Afghan government for abandoning his provincial capital without a fight and for allowing the militants to drive him out of the province.
A senior Interior Ministry official said the Taliban runs a recruitment team that reaches out to Afghan officials, pushing them to join the militants.
“One of the main reasons we lost so much ground is the cooperation of officials with the Taliban,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose such information to the news media.
“We suspect a long list of governors who might have Taliban ties.”
The Taliban’s military blitz across the country does not appear to be slowing. Also Thursday, Taliban fighters pushed farther into the southern city of Kandahar. The group overran the city’s prison Wednesday, and clashes are continuing in the city center.
On Tuesday, the militants overran the capitals of Badakhshan in the north, Farah in the west and Baghlan, a five-hour drive north of Kabul.
Afghan government control has shrunk to less than a third of the country’s territory. And while the United States is continuing to support Afghan forces with airstrikes, the withdrawal of foreign troops is set to conclude within weeks.

 
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Looks like Taliban took Herat, the third largest city. It just started hitting the wires a few hours ago.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan...into-kandahar-after-taking-ghazni-11628789620

Afghan Taliban Seize Herat, Move Into Kandahar After Taking Ghazni​


Yaroslav Trofimov, Alan Cullison and Ehsanullah Amiri

7-9 minutes



KABUL—The Taliban conquered western Afghanistan’s main city of Herat on Thursday and edged close to capturing the southern city of Kandahar, as Afghan police arrested the governor of the strategic Ghazni province for surrendering its capital city to the insurgents earlier in the day.
The accelerating Taliban victories have demoralized Afghan government forces and sown fears in Kabul that it is only a matter of days before the insurgents mount a large-scale attack on the nation’s capital, home to six million people.
Street-to-street fighting in Kandahar, the country’s second-largest city, reached key government buildings Thursday, according to witnesses. A security official in Kabul said it was possible the city would fall to the Taliban by the morning. South of Herat, the insurgents overran the Shindand air base, one of the biggest in the country, according to officials and videos on social media.

Taliban Control Afghan Provincial Capitals: What’s Next


Footage shows Taliban fighters entering a number of provincial capitals in Afghanistan as the group rapidly gains ground and financial strength, further weakening government forces. WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov reports from Kabul, where pressure from the militants is growing. Photo Composite/Video: Michelle Inez Simon

“Unfortunately, the Taliban managed to get into [Herat] city with the help of their infiltrators,” said Abdul Razaq Ahmadi, an aide to Ismail Khan, a warlord who tried to organize a defense of Herat. “The police headquarters has been captured by the Taliban as all police forces left it before the arrival of the Taliban militants.”


By nightfall, other residents said, the insurgents took control of the rest of the city.


Thursday morning’s Taliban capture of Ghazni, which lies along the Kabul-Kandahar highway and serves as a gateway between the capital and insurgent strongholds in the south, significantly increased the threat to the Afghan capital.


An employee of the governor’s office in Ghazni said that Gov. Daud Laghmani simply handed over his office to a senior Taliban commander. “He gave a flower to the Taliban commander and congratulated him,” he said.


Pro-Taliban social-media feeds showed a video of Mr. Laghmani and a convoy of his SUVs being escorted out of the city by Taliban fighters and sent to the border of nearby Wardak province on the highway to Kabul. The Afghan Ministry of Interior said that Mr. Laghmani was arrested upon arriving in Wardak’s capital, along with his chief of staff and other provincial officials. “The governor made a deal with the Taliban. He basically gave the city to them,” said a senior police official.


Mr. Laghmani couldn’t be reached for comment.


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Tens of thousands of people from provinces overtaken by Taliban forces have moved into the Afghan capital, some into camps like this one.​

Photo: Victor J. Blue for The Wall Street Journal

The Taliban’s advances have cast a pall over Kabul, where many residents expressed surprise and shock at the speed of the Afghan government forces’ collapse while the U.S. still maintains some troops in the country and conducts airstrikes.


In recent days, tens of thousands of people from conquered provinces flooded the capital, bringing with them tales of Taliban atrocities. The passport office was mobbed by hundreds of Afghans who tried to apply for documents that would allow them to leave. Some ATMs ran out of cash. Most embassies stopped issuing visas as they readied evacuation plans.


“The mood has changed,” said Abdullah Dost, who owns a mobile-phone shop in central Kabul. “People are afraid that the Taliban will destroy the city.”


In Kabul’s neon-lit Shahr-e-Naw neighborhood, where the main park was filled with recently arrived displaced people, car washer Habibullah Nabizada was fatalistic as he pondered the city’s fate. “I am sad about the Taliban coming here and closing girls’ schools, but we are helpless,” he said. “What can we do? They will take over Kabul sooner or later.”


im-384617


People lined up at an ATM in Kabul on Thursday.​

Photo: Victor J. Blue for The Wall Street Journal

Masih Esmati, a 24-year-old cook frying chapli kebabs, said he was angry with Americans for abandoning Afghanistan, and, like many Kabulis, feared the Taliban takeover. “Yet,” he added, “at the end of the day, this is our country, and we are the ones who have to defend it.”


Outside the Herat restaurant nearby, the favorite hangout of al Qaeda jihadists when Kabul was under Taliban rule in the 1990s, Nadim Qaderi, a recent recruit to the Afghan army, his head clean-shaven, dismissed fears of the city’s collapse.


“We will fight hard and we will defend Kabul. The Taliban won’t manage to come here,” he said.


Zalmay Nazari, a German-trained police trooper who escaped to Kabul this week from Kunduz, the northeastern city captured by the Taliban, burst out laughing. “That’s what we were saying too in Kunduz—we will never give up, we will never surrender, the Taliban will never take the city, and then they did,” he said, stirring his mango lassi. “The same thing will happen here.”


im-384618


A makeshift camp for displaced Afghans in Kabul was crowded with vehicles on Thursday.​


View attachment WorldOnAlert - This is HUGE! Taliban have seized 1000s of assault rifles, RPGs, pistols and t...mp4
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It seems that yesterday’s doom posts are today’s reality. The world as you knew it died in December 2019, there was a two month mourning period, and now…we’re in an endless Hell. That’s where we are apparently.

 
Curious; are the Taliban shooting white dudes on sight? What's it actually like to be a foreigner in Taliban-held areas?
 
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