So…long term what does everyone think the geopolitical ramifications will be?
Obviously this is a big loss for India and win for Pakistan, but beyond that I’m kinda stumped. Iran doesn’t like the taliban but they aren’t incapable of working with them either, the stans are concerned with stability more than anything else(that is if they even have their own agendas separate from Chinese or Russian direction worth noting), uh maybe this inspires jihadists elsewhere?
But then again, jihadists in Syria are stuck in Idlib, jihadists in the Maghreb are a different bunch, and I just can’t really see how this will benefit Al Qaeda or Islamic insurgencies throughout the region in any substantial way.
Win for China.
Even if China does nothing with Afghanstan, just builds a new wall and pretends it doesn't exist, they have won because there is no longer a US military presence in their depopulated west. Glowniggers will have a hard time slipping in. They can retask resources.
Strategic metals are non-starter (though if anyone can pull it off, its China) there is no infrstructure. no infrastructure near by. And that's before you get to the the insane and hostile local population.
No, Afghanistan (until Iran and the Taliban get back to fucking with each other) will aid China & Iran's cooperation.
Effective loss for India. This might actually be good for Indian unity - with the US out, India now has a new front to proxy war with Pakistan.
immediate downside: these covert ops will be run by Poointheloos.
New round of Pakistani infighting; bad news for the compartative moderates currently in charge. The ISI mountain zealots are going to start swinging thier dicks around in 2-5 years.
More rapefugees for Europe, so not much different there other than an increase of Globohomo as they chain migrate in their backwards ass cousins to come get their fundamentalist asses indoctrinized to Global Jihad by saudi-funded mosques. It is a bad time to be a teenaged girl in Europe. Or a preteen boy.
For the US, hard to tell. This may be too far our to affect the midterms in any appreciable way.
Hilariously, this might be the straw that results in Newsom getting recalled in California unless he immediately distances himself from this fuck up, as unable to express displeasure with Biden they might go after Newsom. But he's a party crony, so very unlikely.
This is a fuck up but important to be honest with ourselves:
The $85B is the 'purchase' cost of the equipment, including the usually 2-3+ of parts and maintenance. Most of that stuff is years old, a lot of it is broken or nearly so and is not coming with the service agreement. The actual value is much less, and part of the reason it was being left with the ANA was it just wasn't worth trying to bring it back.
The M113s specifically are slated for retirement/replacement in the next year or two.
Probably going against the grain of this thread, but I thought this video was worth sharing.
Hundreds killed, Footie most effected.
I am thinking, assholes tried real hard to make it to Sept 11 anniversary, probably sacrificing common sense and throwing caution to the wind to make a nice photo-op. Well, they got it.
August is the end of the Aghanistan 'campaigning season'.
This is one of the reasons the Taliban were so ready to deal for peace: The US would have been out in may, giving the Taliban maximum time to try to fuck with the Government and get things back to the 2001 borders. I would argue this was a flaw in Trump's negotiations, but as we've seen... it wouldn't have made a difference, and probably saved American lives.
IF the government hadn't folded like a bunch of wet tissuepaper, and they had held a majority of the country until Septemeber, they would have had all winter to dig in and get ready for next spring. This is why the Taliban did their blitz when they did: take as much territory as close to the end of the ability to run war ops, so they would have until May to dig in and secure it.
September 11 was just a convenient day close to that time frame. This is (part) of why Biden isn't pushing back too hard, those extra weeks were just for PR.