The problem with the recall is that it morphed from "Newsom bad" to "Elder good". The reason why it was close before because people were voting to spite Newsom. Since it became another election now between D and R instead of anti-Newsom, partisans are falling back in line. They would unironically step in shit and needles everyday and be assaulted by the homeless than look around and demand something to change.
Unless if there are major defections within the party, which is unlikely because when asked people feel revolted to vote for a Republican at all, Newsom is going to win beyond the need of "fortification." Ie, 5+ percent.
A little fortification is happening as you see, but its unnecessary because Newsom will win beyond a substantial margin of whatever fuckery they needed.
"You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave." - Hotel California